quinta-feira, 10 de junho de 2010

Clipping Internacional, 10 de junho de 2010


Labour markets

Good intentions

Employers are becoming increasingly optimistic about hiring new workers

Jun 8th 2010

FEARS of a "jobless recovery" in the West have abounded ever since the world economy returned from the abyss last year. For some, the latest quarterly survey from Manpower, a global employment-services company, brings timely good news. Of the 36 countries included in Manpower's survey, employers in 30 of them are increasingly bullish about their hiring plans for the next three months compared with the third quarter of 2009. Only in five countries, all of them in debt-laden Europe, are employers expecting negative hiring activity over the next quarter. This compares favourably, however, to the seven European countries with a negative outlook just three months ago. The survey suggests that the BICs (Brazil, India and China) bounce will continue. The three countries, along with Taiwan, report the most positive hiring plans in the survey, with China reporting its strongest hiring plans since the survey began there in 2005.



Turkey slams latest Iran sanctions

By Daniel Dombey in Washington, Alex Barker in London and Najmeh Bozorgmehr in Tehran

Published: June 9 2010 14:21 | Last updated: June 10 2010 09:46

The US blamed Europe for alienating Turkey from the west as the Nato ally on Wednesday became one of two members of the United Nations Security Council to vote against stepping up sanctions on Iran.

Susan Rice, US ambassador to the UN, attacked the "very unfortunate choices" by Turkey and Brazil, the other country to oppose the measures.

"They are now the outliers," she said of the two traditional US allies. "They are standing outside of the rest of the Security Council, outside of the body of the international community." Russia and China, long doubtful about sanctions, voted in favour after a dogged US campaign for support.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's prime minister, on Thursday followed up his country's 'No' vote by calling the vote "a mistake". He said Brazil and Turkey would continue to seek a diplomatic solution to the standoff.

On Wednesday, Robert Gates, defence secretary, suggested European Union reluctance to admit Turkey as a member could be pushing it away from the west and expressed concern about the deterioration of Turkish-Israeli ties. "If there's anything to the notion that Turkey is moving eastwards, it is in no small part because it was pushed, and it was pushed by some in Europe refusing to give Turkey the kind of organic link to the west that Turkey sought," he said while visiting London.

The resolution, passed by 12 votes to two with Lebanon abstaining, establishes a partial arms embargo, an inspection regime for Iranian ships and takes steps against companies linked to the Revolutionary Guard Corps. The sanctions also hit groups linked to Iran's nuclear and missile projects.

After months of negotiations with Moscow and Beijing the final measures fall short of Washington's original intentions, but President Barack Obama hailed them as "the toughest sanctions ever faced by the Iranian government".

As the US and its allies offered to negotiate with Iran "at the earliest possible opportunity", he added: "These sanctions do not close the door on diplomacy."

But Brazil denounced what it called a "rush to sanctions" and Turkey insisted that a recent fuel swap deal that Ankara and Brasilia struck with Iran had to "remain on the table". The US says that deal is inadequate but yesterday said it was prepared to discuss how it could be improved.

Iran said the resolution "was not the right and logical approach".


 


No alternative but to sanction Iran

Published: June 9 2010 22:07 | Last updated: June 9 2010 22:07

The screw has been turned a further notch on Iran with the decision of the UN Security Council to tighten sanctions on the regime. There is, however, little sign that the nuclear negotiating game is any nearer conclusion.

This can happen only when Iran enters into negotiations with the west to legitimise its nuclear programme. It was Iran's refusal to accept this principle that effectively killed the deal brokered last month by Turkey and Brazil that would have transferred part of Iran's uranium stockpile to Turkish territory.

In the absence of a deal, the west had no alternative but to keep the sanctions juggernaut rolling. It has always been the policy of the US and its allies to rein in Iran's nuclear programme while avoiding two evils – the first being Iran with the bomb and the second, Iran itself bombed. As time is the enemy – each month that passes potentially brings the Iranians closer to the possession of weapons-grade material – the west could not stay its hand.

The sanctions package is welcome in that it targets Iran's Revolutionary Guard, which effectively drives the nuclear programme and has been in virtual control of the country since an effective internal coup following last year's disputed elections. However, these are far from the "crippling" sanctions that Hillary Clinton once called for – the result of needing to bring more sceptical powers such as China and Russia on board. They are unlikely to bring about a change of heart in Tehran.

If the world is not to drift towards a military conflict involving Iran and Israel that would spell disaster for the region and the world, a way forward still needs to be found. The best hope is that some variant of the Franco-Russian or Turkish-Brazilian proposals for uranium transfer can be revived. The west has left open the door to further discussions on the latter plan. And by voting against the sanctions, the Turks and Brazilians have potentially presented themselves as honest brokers.

But for these initiatives to bear fruit, Tehran has to feel that there is no alternative but to negotiate. That requires a toughening of the Chinese line – and perhaps more enticements from the US side. In the absence of these, it is always possible that a consensus may yet be found among the major and emerging powers as Iran closes in on the nuclear threshold. But it is unsettling for the world to have to wait on events with such great issues at stake.


 


Petrobras poised for $25bn rights issue

10/06/2010 | Jonathan Wheatley

Brazil's senate was expected to approve a bill late on Wednesday allowing a US$25bn rights issue by Petrobras as early as next month, enabling the national oil company to complete an ambitious investment programme without putting its investment-grade rating at risk.

The bill is part of a legislative programme that would alter regulations governing offshore "pre-salt" fields. These are potentially enormous deposits of oil and gas discovered in 2007, trapped several kilometres under the sea bed beneath a hard layer of salt.

Parts of the pre-salt fields were put out to concessions under existing rules before their potential was understood. The government wants the remainder to be subject to production-sharing agreements it says are needed to maximise government income and increase control over production.

Under the proposals, Petrobras would be the sole operating company in the pre-salt area.

The group is expected to raise about $25bn through the rights issue, strengthening its balance sheet and allowing it to raise more debt without taking its ratio of debt to equity beyond 35 per cent, regarded as the limit for its investment-grade rating.

Petrobras ended the first quarter with a ratio of about 32 per cent after keeping investments this year to a minimum.

Under the capitalisation plan, the government would sell to Petrobras the rights to up to 5bn barrels of pre-salt oil and gas, at a price to be determined by an independent evaluator.

Petrobras would then use these assets as the basis for a share issue, which may or may not deliver more money than it has to pay the government for the rights to the 5bn barrels. Whether or not it makes a monetary gain, the issue would bolster the group's balance sheet, enabling it to raise more debt.

Petrobras plans to invest about R$88.5bn (US$48.1bn) this year, of which it has spent only a small part. It said recently it would spend between $200bn and $220bn during the coming five years, and would be expected to put detail on those plans before a rights issue.

Mônica Araújo, analyst at Ativa Corretora, a Rio de Janeiro brokerage, said she expected the senate to approve the bill unchanged, making it likely that the capitalisation would go ahead next month.

"It's a difficult time on markets, but Petrobras is the only oil company in the world with significant new reserves so it's a good opportunity," she said.


 


Brazil raises rates to slow growth

10/06/2010

Jonathan Wheatley

Brazil's central bank raised its policy interest rate by three quarters of a percentage point on Wednesday evening in another sign that the country's breakneck pace of growth is causing concern over rising prices.

Brazil's economy expanded by 2.7 per cent in the first quarter over the previous quarter and by 9 per cent over the first quarter of 2009, the national statistics office said on Tuesday. That is much faster than what many economists consider to be the potential, or non-inflationary, rate of about 4.5 to 5 per cent.

"This shows there has been no change in the bank's position since its previous increase in April," said Silvio Campos Neto of Banco Schahin in São Paulo. "It is clear from all the indicators that the economy is heating up and inflation is still above target. This is worrying and demands further increases in rates."

The bank raised its target overnight Selic rate to 10.25 per cent a year, the second three-quarter point increase at the last two six-weekly meetings of its monetary policy committee.

Consumer price inflation ballooned from a low of 4.17 per cent a year last October to 5.22 per cent in the 12 months to May. Many economists expect inflation to reach 6 per cent by the end of this year, well above the government's target of 4.5 per cent. Economic growth is expected to be about 6.6 per cent this year.

Mr Campos said he expected the bank to raise the Selic rate to 11.75 per cent by the end of this year.

He said successive interest rate increases would help bring growth back to sustainable levels and predicted the economy would grow by about 4.3 per cent in 2011.

Brazil's domestic market has recovered quickly from a brief recession during the global crisis, spurred on by a rising consumer class that has benefited from more than a decade of economic stability and low inflation, and from low-cost but effective income transfer programmes.

But the fast pace of growth has exposed bottlenecks such as the poor quality of Brazil's infrastructure and its heavy tax burden. The rate of investment has risen in recent years but is still short of what is needed to deliver fast, sustainable growth.


 


Brazil Inflation Eases But Not Pressure On Central Bank

JUNE 9, 2010, 11:27 A.M. ET

RIO DE JANEIRO (Dow Jones)--Consumer price growth eased slightly in May, but the inflation reprieve was likely temporary and will not affect a monetary tightening cycle under way at the Brazilian Central Bank.

The IPCA consumer price index rose 0.43% in May compared with a 0.57% gain in April, the Brazilian Census Bureau, or IBGE, said Wednesday. The rolling 12-month inflation rate retreated to 5.22% but remained above the government's year-end target of 4.5%.

With the rolling 12-month inflation rate still above the government's year-end target and Latin America's largest economy expanding at a record pace in the first quarter, the Brazilian Central Bank was expected to raise rates for a second time this year at its meeting later Wednesday.

"Given the current scenario, the central bank doesn't have any reason to change its posture--so it should continue raising interest rates," said Jankiel Santos, an economist at Sao Paulo-based investment fund BES Investimento.

The bank's Copom rate-setting panel increased the benchmark Selic base interest rate by 75 basis points at its April meeting, the first rate hike in nearly two years. The Selic currently stands at 9.5%.

Economists polled in the central bank's weekly market survey released Monday forecast Selic to end 2010 at 11.75%.

Brazil's conservative central bank has long been hawkish on inflation, with many members recalling the hyperinflation that racked Latin America's largest economy in the 1990s. In minutes from the April meeting, central bankers expressed concerns about rising price pressures caused by domestic demand.

In April, output at Brazil's mines and factories returned to the pre-crisis peak set in 2008. Brazil's economy also surged 9.0% year-on-year in the first quarter, the country's best gross domestic product growth in more than a decade.

Finance Minister Guido Mantega said Tuesday that the end of government stimulus implemented in the wake of last year's brief recession should help trim domestic demand. Higher interest rates and bank reserve requirements should also cut into credit availability, the minister said.

Despite expectations that economic growth should diminish from the record first-quarter levels through the rest of 2010, some economists see price pressures increasing again the second half of the year.

Goldman Sachs economist Luis Cezario said in a research report that elevated GDP growth will further squeeze production capacity and labor markets.

"Therefore, we believe that after a temporary decline between May and June, inflation will rebound in the second-half 2010, rising toward the ceiling of the target band by the end of the year," Cezario wrote.

May's inflation data showed that food prices, which carry the largest weighting in the IPCA and have long been a primary culprit in local inflation, have stabilized. Poor weather that had affected recent harvests has improved, IBGE officials said.

Food prices, however, remained high, advancing 5.18% in the first five months of 2010. That's the highest year-to-date gain since a 6.85% advance in the first five months of 2003.

But the unexpected fallout from Brazil's booming economy has been in price pressures outside of food and beverages, economists said. Prices for such essentials as housing and medications continue to rise, while recent adjustments to electricity rates and school tuitions were still reverberating.

"With respect to the deceleration seen in May, the numbers are not very positive because only the food segment showed prices under control," Jankiel Santos said.

Santos expects the IPCA to end 2010 at 5.5%.


 



Minister:Brazil May Need To Adopt Harsh Inflation Controls -Estado

JUNE 9, 2010, 12:43 P.M. ET

SAO PAULO (Dow Jones)--Brazil's government may have to adopt harsh measures to control inflation in light on the extremely high first-quarter growth figures, said Planning Minister Paulo Bernardo Wednesday, according to the local Estado newswire.

Speaking at an event in Sao Paulo, the minister said the economic team is monitoring prices carefully and realize that measures, such as interest rate hikes and increasing reserve requirements, may be necessary.

Brazil's central bank started a monetary tightening cycle in April with a 75 basis point hike in the Selic base rate to 9.5%. Economists expect the central bank to announce another 75-point hike later Wednesday and see the Selic nearing 12% by the end of 2010.

Brazilian price growth slowed in May but the official 12-month rolling IPCA inflation figure still stood at 5.22%, above the government's year-end target of 4.5%.

On Tuesday, Brazil's Census Bureau, or IBGE, announced that gross domestic product expanded 9% in the first quarter from the year-earlier period.

Brazil's central bank is not autonomous but President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva guaranteed Central Bank President Henrique Meirelles that he wouldn't interfere in monetary policy. That has not stopped Bernardo, Finance Minister Guido Mantega and other members of the government's economic team from questioning the central bank's orthodox monetary stance in the past.


 


Petrobras Fuels Real as Stock Sale Attracts Investors (Update1)

June 10, 2010, 3:02 AM EDT

June 10 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's real is leading major emerging-market currencies this week as Petroleo Brasileiro SA prepares to sell $25 billion of stock and the central bank raises interest rates.

The 0.8 percent appreciation is the biggest among the six most-traded emerging-market currencies, compared with a 0.7 percent gain for Mexico's peso, a 0.1 percent decline in the South African rand and a 0.7 percent slide in the Taiwanese dollar, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Brazil's Senate approved today a bill allowing a share sale by the Rio de Janeiro-based company that would be the biggest in the Western Hemisphere in at least a decade. The combination of the offering and Brazil's rising rates may lure international investors to real-denominated assets. RBS Greenwich Capital Markets and Patria Investimentos forecast more gains.

"Petrobras will be one of the largest deals and all the foreign investors we talked to are interested," Luis Fernando Lopes, who helps manage 1.1 billion reais ($595 million) in assets as a partner at Patria, said in a telephone interview from Sao Paulo. "We see continued appreciation of the real."

The rally follows a five-week, 7.4 percent slide sparked by concern Europe's debt crisis will slow global growth and erode demand for Brazil's commodity exports.

Rate Increase

Finance Minister Guido Mantega said April 26 in New York that Brazil was considering "further measures" to weaken the real and support its exporters. Those efforts are being undermined as central bankers raise interest rates to cool the fastest growth in 15 years and bring inflation down from 5.2 percent, which is 0.7 percentage point above their annual target.

After markets closed yesterday, policy makers boosted the benchmark lending rate 75 basis points to 10.25 percent, in line with the move forecast by all but two of the 52 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The increase was the second straight 75 basis-point move, bringing the rate up from a record low 8.75 percent in April.

The yield on Brazil's interest-rate futures contract due in January, the most active in Sao Paulo trading, rose four basis points yesterday to 11.03 percent ahead of the policy meeting. That contract suggests traders expect the central bank to boost the rate to about 12 percent by year-end, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Oil-for-Stock

The real, whose 33 percent appreciation last year was the biggest among major currencies, will strengthen to 1.77 per dollar by the end of the third quarter from 1.8501 yesterday, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 21 economists. RBS predicts it will reach 1.73 by then and 1.72 by year-end.

Petrobras, Latin America's biggest company by market value, plans to buy 5 billion barrels of government-owned oil reserves with new stock and raise as much as $25 billion from minority investors. The offering will help fund as much as $220 billion of spending through 2014, the world's biggest oil-industry investment plan.

Senators allowed Petrobras to issue new shares in exchange for the rights to explore government-owned oil reserves off Brazil's coast. The lower house passed the legislation in March. Congressional backing of the bill would bolster the plan and enable the offering to be done as soon as next month, said Flavia Cattan-Naslausky, a currency strategist with RBS in Stamford, Connecticut.

Foreign Investors

Petrobras last week picked Banco Bradesco SA, Citigroup Inc., Itau Unibanco Holding SA, Bank of America Corp., Morgan Stanley and Banco Santander SA to manage the sale.

Petrobras fell 0.4 percent yesterday to 29.55 reais, paring its advance to 1 percent this week.

International investors have bought 67.5 percent of the 12.4 billion reais of shares sold in offerings in Brazil this year, up from 66.7 percent of the 43.5 billion reais of stock sold in 2009, according to BM&FBovespa SA. In 2007, a record year for Brazilian share offerings, they bought 75.4 percent of the 65.5 billion reais sold.

The sale "is going to generate decent flows," Cattan- Naslausky said in a telephone interview. "It just reminds the market that Brazil is one resilient story," she said.

Declines in the real beyond 1.88 per dollar would create "opportunities" to buy the currency, she said in a report dated June 8. The rally spurred by the pickup in foreign investment may be limited by central bank dollar purchases in the local market, Cattan-Naslausky said.

'More Aggressive'

The central bank bought $4.2 billion in the foreign- exchange market in May, the most since October, to stem the real's rally and bolster foreign reserves.

The dollar purchases "reinforce a more aggressive central bank attitude in regards to stemming the pace" of the real's appreciation, Cattan-Naslausky said in the report.

The yield premium investors demand to own Brazilian government dollar bonds instead of U.S. Treasuries narrowed four basis points to 247 yesterday.

The cost of protecting the nation's debt against non- payment for five years with credit-default swaps increased one basis point to 147, according to data compiled by CMA DataVision. Credit-default swaps pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a government or company fail to adhere to its debt agreements.

'Big Values'

Option traders are becoming less pessimistic about the real. One-month options giving investors the right to sell the real cost 6.05 percentage points more than contracts to buy it yesterday. The premium has fallen from 6.96 percentage points on May 20, which was the most since March 2009.

Foreign institutions placed 108,394 more wagers on the currency falling than rising as of June 4, a decline from 112,634 net bearish bets on May 21, according to data compiled by BM&FBovespa.

State-run Banco do Brasil SA's planned share sale is also fueling gains in the real, said Jose Carlos Amado, a currency trader at Sao Paulo-based brokerage Renascenca DTVM. The Brasilia-based bank, Latin America's biggest by assets, is slated to set a price for the shares before month-end in an offering that could raise as much as 9.4 billion reais.

"We're talking about big values," Amado said. "That will certainly affect the exchange rate."

--With assistance from Ye Xie in New York, Maria Luiza Rabello and Andre Soliani in Brasilia and Peter Millard in Rio de Janeiro. Editors: David Papadopoulos, Lester Pimentel


 


Brazil Raises Rate to 10.25% to Slow Economic Growth (Update2)

June 09, 2010, 7:29 PM EDT

June 9 (Bloomberg) -- Brazilian policy makers raised their benchmark interest rate today for a second straight meeting in a bid to bring inflation back to target amid forecasts the economy will expand this year at the fastest pace in decades.

The eight-member board led by President Henrique Meirelles voted unanimously to increase the Selic by 75 basis points to 10.25 percent from 9.50 percent, as expected by 50 of 52 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Two economists had forecast a full-point jump. Today's decision was without a bias.

Central bankers ended nine months of record low interest rates in April as surging domestic demand helped fuel the fastest expansion of Latin America's biggest economy in 15 years in the first quarter. At the same time, inflation exceeded the government's target of 4.5 percent every month this year and economists surveyed by the central bank don't expect policy makers to slow consumer prices to their target by the end of this year or next.

"The central bank focused on signs that the domestic economy is too heated," Jankiel Santos, chief economist at Banco Espirito Santo de Investimento, said in a phone interview from Sao Paulo. "The bank didn't hint at any change in its future strategy -- they'll raise the rate by another 75 basis points next month."

While annual inflation, as measured by the benchmark IPCA index, slowed to 5.22 percent in May from 5.26 percent in April -- the first deceleration in seven months -- the rate remained above 4.5 percent for a fifth straight month.

Inflation Target

The bank, in a one-sentence statement accompanying its decision today, said the increase would help "ensure the convergence of inflation to the target trajectory."

Since the central bank's April rate increase, traders have signaled growing confidence that policy makers will manage to control inflation even as economists forecast growth will accelerate this year to the fastest pace since 1986.

The difference between yields on overnight interest rate futures contracts due in January 2011 and those maturing in January 2013 narrowed today to 107 basis points, or 1.07 percentage points, from a three-month high of 193 basis points on April 22.

"The market is calmer," said Marcelo Saddi Castro, the chief investment officer at SulAmerica Investimentos overseeing 16 billion reais ($8.6 billion) in Sao Paulo. "When the market sees the central bank is doing a good job, it feels comfortable about the inflation outlook."

GDP Growth

Gross domestic product grew 9 percent in the first quarter from the year-earlier period, the most since 1995, the government said yesterday in Rio de Janeiro.

Brazil is the second-fastest growing economy among the so- called BRIC countries, behind China, which expanded 11.9 percent in the first quarter. India grew 8.6 percent in the first three months of the year and Russia expanded 2.9 percent.

Chinese-like growth in Brazil is leading to supply shortages. Cia de Bebidas das Americas, the region's largest brewer, had to import beer cans for the first time in its 125- year history after local supplies were exhausted.

Acucar Guarani SA, the country's third-biggest sugar producer by market value, left 10 percent of its crop sitting in the fields an extra 40 days because of a shortage of tires for its harvesters, even after the commodity hit a 29-year high in February.

"Policy makers cannot be lenient with inflation," Zeina Latif, chief economist at ING Bank NV, said in a phone interview from Sao Paulo. "The economy is expanding above potential and the central bank needs to act."

Growth Outlook

Still, the speed of economic growth will "decelerate sharply" in the second quarter with the end of tax cuts aimed at boosting demand during the global financial crisis, Virgilio Castro Cunha, income strategist at Bank of America Corp. in Sao Paulo, wrote in a note to clients yesterday.

Apart from raising rates and allowing tax breaks to expire to slow economic expansion and inflation., President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's administration increased the level of deposits lenders must keep on reserve at the central bank and trimmed 10 billion reais in spending,

The euro-zone crisis, which is making it more difficult for companies to sell shares in the stock market and roll over debt, will also help cool the economy, Finance Minister Guido Mantega said yesterday.


 


EL BANCO CENTRAL ELEVÓ EL INTERÉS POR SEGUNDO MES CONSECUTIVO PARA LLEVARLO HASTA UN NIVEL DE 10,25%
Brasil volvió a subir la tasa enfiar una economía que corre el riesgo de sobrecalentarse

EL CRONISTA Buenos Aires ()

El Banco Central de Brasil elevó ayer la tasa de interés de referencia en 75 puntos base por segunda vez consecutiva, a 10,25%, en un esfuerzo para evitar un sobrecalentamiento de la mayor economía de América Latina.

El endurecimiento monetario fue decidido por unanimidad por el Comité de Política Monetaria (Copom) del Banco Central y se adecuó a lo esperado por el mercado. De ese modo, la tasa de interés referencial Selic volvió al nivel definido en abril del año pasado.

La autoridad monetaria también dijo que compró u$s 4.172 millones en el mercado de cambios a la vista en mayo, en el marco de sus esfuerzos por acumular reservas internacionales y absorber el fuerte flujo de divisas extranjeras a la plaza local.

Con las subastas de compra de dólares, las reservas internacionales de Brasil ya superan los 250.000 millones de dólares, el mayor nivel histórico.

El flujo cambiario de Brasil arrojó un saldo positivo de 2.605 millones de dólares en mayo, Pese a todo, el saldo positivo fue el mayor desde noviembre del 2009, cuando Brasil anotó una entrada líquida de 3.890 millones de dólares.

En lo que va del año, Brasil ha tenido una entrada líquida de 7.376 millones de dólares, muy superior a los 1.606 millones de dólares verificados en el mismo período del 2009.

Toda la actividad monetaria


 


Los Grobo apunta a expandirse en Brasil

10/06/2010

El grupo Los Grobo dijo que seguirá aumentando su superficie sembrada y sus inversiones en Brasil, según explicó ayer el CEO de la compañía, Gustavo Grobocopatel, de visita en San Pablo.

"Hoy Brasil es nuestro principal foco para el crecimiento de la compañía", informó Grobocopatel, que ya había anunciado meses atrás que Los Grobo triplicará la superficie sembrada en el país vecino hasta llegar a las 150.000 hectáreas, en un período de tres años.

Por otro lado, Grobocopatel, en declaraciones a la agencia Reuters, señaló que una gran parte del incremento de su suministro de producción provendrá de la soja de Brasil. Así, la unidad de la empresa en ese país manejará 800.000 toneladas de granos, principalmente de soja, contra las 600.000 toneladas del ciclo pasado.

"Plantaremos 70.000 a 80.000 hectáreas en el próximo ciclo, principalmente en Mapito. El mayor crecimiento provendrá de allí", anticipó el CEO de Los Grobo, que comprende los Estados de Maranhao, Piaui y Tocantins, en el norte del país.

Por otro lado, Grobocopatel sostuvo que Brasil probablemente duplique su producción de granos en las próximas tres décadas y para que su empresa sea competitiva en el sector, será necesario que esté bien organizada. "Nuestra compañía está construyendo una plataforma para responder a este crecimiento de la producción de granos en Brasil", dijo.

Finalmente, el ejecutivo comentó que no preveía que la empresa fuera a abrir su capital en el corto plazo, aunque sí veía una Oferta Pública Inicial (OPI) como algo necesario en el largo plazo. "En el futuro, una compañía como Los Grobo tiene que ser abierta, pero no en el corto plazo. No se puede ser adulto sin pasar por la adolescencia", graficó Grobocopatel.

En enero, Los Grobo asumió una participación de control de la empresa brasileña Ceagro, que produce granos en la región de Mapito. Luego, Ceagro fue fusionada con Los Grobo Brasil, la subsidiaria local del grupo. Dos años después de la llegada de Los Grobo a ese país, Brasil ya explica la mayor parte del volumen de operaciones de Los Grobo.


 


Lula, molesto y crítico

10/06/2010

10/06/10

Por SAN PABLO. CORRESPONSAL

Para Brasil, las sanciones aplicadas ayer contra Irán por el Consejo de Seguridad de la ONU "es una victoria pírrica". Fue la evaluación del presidente Lula da Silva luego de conocer el resultado de la votación del organismo, que aprobó el proyecto de las cinco grandes potencias que lo gobiernan. " Es un episodio que debilita a las Naciones Unidas" sostuvo el líder brasileño para luego rezar para que "Ahmadinejad permanezca tranquilo".

Lula no pudo reprimir su enojo cuando advirtió que "las potencias se creen dueñas del Consejo". No le cayeron bien las declaraciones de la secretaria de Estado Hillary Clinton quien, desde Colombia, sostuvo que "Brasil y Turquía van a continuar con un papel importante" en el esfuerzo negociador con Teherán. Para el canciller Celso Amorim, a Irán "ni siquiera le dieron tiempo para discutir modificaciones al acuerdo" para satisfacer a las cinco potencias.

quarta-feira, 9 de junho de 2010

Clipping Internacional, 09 de junho de 2010


UPDATE: Brazil's Economy Surges To Record Growth In 1Q

JUNE 8, 2010, 10:04 A.M. ET

RIO DE JANEIRO (Dow Jones)--Brazil posted record economic growth in the first quarter, but surging domestic demand will likely force central bankers to ramp up interest rates to cool Latin America's largest economy.

Brazil's gross domestic product expanded 9.0% in the first quarter compared with the first quarter a year earlier, the Brazilian Census Bureau, or IBGE, said Tuesday. That was the largest year-on-year growth recorded under the IBGE methodology implemented in 1995, and topped the median forecast of 7.6% made by 22 economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires.

The robust first-quarter growth will likely be seen as another signal that Brazil's economy is now overheating, joining soaring industrial production and rising consumer prices as growing concerns at the Brazilian Central Bank. The bank, already wary about inflationary pressures, started a monetary tightening cycle in April.

The bank's Copom rate-setting panel raised the benchmark Selic base interest rate by 75 basis points, the first increase in nearly two years. The Selic currently stands at 9.5%. The bank's Copom rate-setting panel will meet Wednesday, with economists and market analysts forecasting another 75-basis-point bump.

Surging domestic demand has pushed the local inflation rate above the government's official year-end target of 4.5%. Through mid-May, the rolling 12-month IPCA-15 inflation rate stood at 5.26%. Full-month May inflation figures will be released Wednesday, before the bank makes its interest-rate decision.

Output at Brazil's mines and factories surged in the first quarter, reflecting the tax cuts on car sales and big-ticket items such as refrigerators and washing machines that were implemented in the wake of last year's recession.

Brazil's powerhouse industrial sector surged 14.6% year-on-year in the first quarter, the IBGE said. The service sector also recorded year-on-year growth of 5.9%, while the country's massive agriculture industry registered growth of 5.1%.

With the stunning first-quarter performance, all facets of Brazil's economy have returned to pre-crisis levels, said IBGE researcher Rebecca Palis.

"The industrial segment returned [to pre-crisis levels] in the first quarter. In truth, it's actually slightly above pre-crisis levels," Palis said.

In market value, Brazil's GDP was 826.4 billion Brazilian reals ($441 billion) in the first quarter, up from BRL717.4 billion in first quarter of 2009.

Investments also jumped year-on-year in the first quarter to 18.0% of GDP, up from 16.3% of GDP in the first quarter of 2009.

Family consumption, meanwhile, increased 16% in the first quarter to BRL526.7 billion compared with BRL455.6 billion in the year-earlier period, the IBGE said. Government spending rose 6.2% year-on-year to BRL157.3 billion, up from BRL148.1 billion.

The IBGE also revised GDP figures from past quarters, showing that Brazil's emergence from the recession was stronger than previously thought.

Quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter, GDP was revised upward to growth of 2.3% from previously reported growth of 2.0%. Third-quarter GDP was revised upward to growth of 2.2% from the previously reported 1.7% gain. Second-quarter GDP was revised upward to growth of 1.5% versus the previously reported growth of 1.4%.

Meanwhile, the quarter-on-quarter decline in first-quarter GDP was stronger than previously reported, shrinking 1.5% from the fourth quarter compared with a 0.9% decline previously reported.


-By Jeff Fick, Dow Jones Newswires; 55-21-2586-6085; Jeff.Fick@dowjones.com

(Rogerio Jelmayer in Sao Paulo contributed to this report.)


 


Brazil's GDP Grew 9% in First Quarter

JUNE 8, 2010, 7:30 P.M. ET

RIO DE JANEIRO—Brazil reported record economic growth for the first quarter, but surging domestic demand is likely to force central bankers to ramp up interest rates to cool Latin America's largest economy.

Gross domestic product expanded 9% in the first quarter from the year-earlier period, the Brazilian Census Bureau, or IBGE, said Tuesday. That was the largest year-to-year growth recorded under the IBGE methodology implemented in 1995, and topped the median forecast of 7.6% by 22 economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires.

The robust first-quarter growth will likely be seen as another signal that Brazil's economy is overheating, joining soaring industrial production and rising consumer prices as subjects of concern at the Brazilian central bank. The bank, already wary of inflationary pressures, started monetary tightening in April, raising the benchmark Selic interest rate by 0.75 percentage point to 9.5%, the first increase in nearly two years. Economists and market analysts forecast another bump of three-quarters of a point when the panel meets on Wednesday.

Though the central bank is expected to continue tightening monetary policy throughout the year, government officials say a similar surge in growth isn't expected in subsequent quarters.

First-quarter figures, they say, still include consumer spending spurred in part by tax and lending incentives, introduced during the downturn to help stimulate the economy, that have since been removed.

Central-bank President Henrique Meirelles said the GDP data confirm that Brazil has fully recovered from the impact of a global economic crisis seen in 2008 and 2009. Brazil's economy contracted by 0.2% in 2009. Mr. Meirelles said the data prove the government took adequate measures to counter the effects of the slowdown.

Surging domestic demand has pushed the local inflation rate above the government's official year-end target of 4.5%. Through mid-May, the rolling 12-month IPCA-15 inflation rate stood at 5.26%. Full-month May inflation figures will be released Wednesday, before the bank makes its rate decision.

Output at Brazil's mines and factories surged in the first quarter, reflecting the tax cuts on car sales and big-ticket items such as refrigerators and washing machines that were implemented in the wake of last year's recession.

The industrial sector, Brazil's powerhouse, surged 14.6% year-to-year in the first quarter, the IBGE said. The service sector recorded growth of 5.9%, while the agriculture industry registered growth of 5.1%.

With the first-quarter performance, all facets of Brazil's economy have returned to precrisis levels, said IBGE researcher Rebecca Palis.

"The industrial segment returned [to precrisis levels] in the first quarter. In truth, it's actually slightly above precrisis levels," Ms. Palis said.

Brazil's GDP was 826.4 billion Brazilian reals (about $441 billion) in the first quarter, up from 717.4 billion reals in the first quarter of 2009.

Investments jumped to 18% of GDP, up from 16.3% of GDP in the first quarter of 2009.

Family consumption increased 16% to 526.7 billion reals from 455.6 billion reals, the IBGE said. Government spending rose 6.2% to 157.3 billion reals from 148.1 billion reals.

The IBGE also revised GDP figures from past quarters, showing that Brazil's emergence from the recession was stronger than previously thought.

Quarter-to-quarter in the fourth quarter, GDP was revised upward to growth of 2.3% from previously reported growth of 2.0%. Third-quarter GDP was revised upward to growth of 2.2% from the previously reported 1.7% gain. Second-quarter GDP was revised upward to growth of 1.5% versus the previously reported growth of 1.4%.

The quarter-to-quarter decline in first-quarter GDP was stronger than previously reported, shrinking 1.5% from the fourth quarter compared with a previously reported 0.9% decline.

—Rogerio Jelmayer in São Paulo and Gerald Jeffris in Brasília contributed to this article.


 


Lula's Candidate Surges in Brazil

JUNE 8, 2010 | By ROGERIO JELMAYER and JOHN LYONS


SÃO PAULO—Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's hand-picked successor has surged against her rival in a series of new polls, increasing the chances that the leftist Workers Party will remain in power after October elections.

Dilma Rousseff, Mr. da Silva's former chief of staff and the Workers' Party presidential candidate, rose five percentage points since a similar poll was taken in April. She is now tied at 37% with opposition politician Jose Serra, a former São Paulo governor, according to the Ibope research firm.

Mr. Serra's tally of likely voters fell by three percentage points in the poll released over the weekend. Other recent polls show similar results.

Trailing Ms. Rousseff and Mr. Serra in this week's Ibope poll was Green Party candidate Marina Silva, with 9% of the votes. Ibope interviewed 2,002 voting-age Brazilians nationwide between May 31 and June 3. The poll's margin of error is two percentage points.

While presidential campaigns in this soccer-crazed nation don't kick into gear until after the World Cup concludes in July, Ms. Rousseff appears to have notched some early momentum. One explanation behind her rising support may be an economic forecast of 6% growth this year, as well as expanded government aid for low-income families, some analysts say. Ms. Rousseff has an 11-percentage-point advantage over Mr. Serra among minimum-wage earners, the Ibope poll shows.

Another advantage Ms. Rousseff is exploiting is the popularity of President da Silva, who is ineligible to run after two terms. Mr. da Silva defeated Mr. Serra to clinch his first term in 2002. Ms. Rousseff's advisers are hoping the popular president will help defeat Mr. Serra again. Despite protests that such activities go against electoral rules, Mr. da Silva appears with Ms. Rousseff at public events and makes a case for her candidacy in a brief televised documentary.

A one-time Marxist guerrilla, Ms. Rousseff has worked to disarm critics who say she will steer the nation sharply to the left. During a recent speech to investors in New York, for example, Ms. Rousseff said she is committed to preserving a floating exchange rate, fighting inflation and maintaining the government's hands-off policy toward central-bank rate decisions.

Some Brazilian brokers say they doubt Ms. Rousseff's commitment to pro-market economics. Her radical background appears unlikely to spook international investors, in part because similar warnings eight years ago about Mr. da Silva turned out to be unfounded. In 2002, an investor selloff pushed Brazil's currency to record low levels in the weeks before the former labor leader took office. But Mr. da Silva maintained the economic policies of his predecessor, and Brazil's stock market soared.

"After the experience of 2002, the bar is pretty high to get international investors concerned about Brazilian politics," said Gray Newman, who follows Latin America for Morgan Stanle


 


Rate rise expected in Brazil as growth surges

By Jonathan Wheatley in São Paulo

Published: June 9 2010 03:00 | Last updated: June 9 2010 03:00

Brazil's economy was among the fastest growing in the world during the first quarter, according to figures released yesterday that add to fears the economy is overheating and to expectations that the central bank will raise rates again today.

The economy grew at a faster-than-expected rate of 9 per cent in the three months to March compared with a year earlier and by 2.7 per cent compared with the previous quarter, according to the IBGE, the national statistics office.

Part of the reason for the growth was an increase in the rate of investment to 18 per cent from 16.3 per cent a year earlier, spurred by gross fixed capital formation, which leapt by 26 per cent year on year, the fastest rate since the current IBGE series began in 1995.

"This confirms that the economy is very heated," said Rafael Bacciotti, economist at Tendências, a São Paulo consultancy. "The stand-out sectors were industry and services. Employment and wages are also growing strongly and we expect this to continue throughout the year."

The manufacturing industry grew 17.2 per cent year on year and the retail sector 15.2 per cent. Imports also set a record, surging by 39.5 per cent year on year.

The central bank's most recent weekly survey of economists showed expectations of overall growth this year rising to 6.6 per cent, the 12th consecutive week of climbing expectations.

But many believe the economy cannot grow at more than 4.5 or 5 per cent a year without provoking an increase in inflation.

Since last October, Brazil's consumer inflation rate has surged from an annual rate of 4.17 per cent to 5.26 per cent in April. However, the central bank's most recent survey showed a slight drop in forecasts for inflation during 2010, with the average falling to 5.64 per cent from 5.67 per cent a week earlier.

Most economists expect the central bank to announce a second consecutive three-quarter percentage point rise in its policy interest rate, the Selic, at the end of its monetary policy committee's regular two-day meeting tomorrow.

The committee meets every six weeks to decide whether to change the Selic rate in pursuit of the government's annual consumer price inflation target, currently 4.5 per cent a year.

If expectations are confirmed, the Selic will rise to 10.25 per cent a year, up from 8.75 per cent when the current tightening cycle began in April.


 


G4S buys into Brazil security market

09/06/2010 | Jay Bains

G4S, the world's biggest international security solutions group, has agreed to buy Instalarme, a Brazil-based electronic software and hardware integration company.

G4S will pay £17.1m in cash, and a further £6.4m subject to the achievement of an undisclosed earnings target for 2010.

The acquisition marks G4S's first move into Brazil, in spite of holding a portfolio boasting operations in more than 110 countries. Brazil is the fifth-largest security market in the world, which management at G4S have targeted for a number of years, according to JPMorgan Cazenove.

Analysts at JPMorgan said: "This deal is helpful as it will perhaps remind investors that G4S has a significant presence in emerging markets, which now account for circa 30 per cent of its earnings before interest and taxation."

Founded in 1975, and bought by private equity company Axxon Group in 2001, Instalarme is the leader in Brazil's banking sector, with 13,600 alarm connections and 2009 revenues of £15.9m.

Nick Buckles, G4S chief executive, said: "Instalarme represents an excellent opportunity to enter the substantial and growing Brazilian security market and immediately establish our pedigree in the country."

The extensive geographical coverage offered by Instalarme will "give us a strong platform from which to maximise the long-term potential of the Brazilian security market", he said.

Based in Araras, Instalarme employs 365 people in six branches, and is the only nationwide security systems company in Brazil.


 


Brazil growth gives rise to fears of overheating

09/06/2010 | Jonathan Wheatley
Brazil's economy was among the fastest growing in the world during the first quarter, according to figures released on Tuesday that add to fears the economy is overheating and to expectations that the central bank will raise rates again on Wednesday.

The economy grew at a faster-than-expected annual rate of 9 per cent in the three months to March and by 2.7 per cent compared with the previous quarter, according to the IBGE, the national statistics office.

Part of the reason for the growth was an increase in investment, with the rate of investment rising to 18 per cent from 16.3 per cent a year earlier, spurred by gross fixed capital formation, which leapt by 26 per cent year on year, the fastest rate since the IBGE's current series began in 1995.

"This confirms that the economy is very heated," said Rafael Bacciotti, economist at Tendências, a consultancy in São Paulo. "The stand-out sectors were industry and services. Employment and wages are also growing strongly and we expect this to continue throughout the year."

The manufacturing industry grew by 17.2 per cent year on year and the retail sector by 15.2 per cent. Imports also set a record, surging by 39.5 per cent year on year.

The central bank's most recent weekly survey of market economists showed expectations of overall growth this year rising to 6.6 per cent, the 12th consecutive week of climbing expectations.

But many believe the economy cannot grow at more than 4.5 or 5 per cent a year without provoking an increase in inflation.

The central bank has been forced to act by steadily rising inflation expectations over recent months. Since October, Brazil's consumer inflation rate has surged from an annual rate of 4.17 per cent to 5.26 per cent in April. However, the central bank's most recent survey showed a slight drop in forecasts for inflation during 2010, with the average falling to 5.64 per cent from 5.67 per cent a week earlier.

Most economists expect the central bank to announce a second consecutive three-quarter percentage point rise in its policy interest rate, the Selic, at the end of its monetary policy committee's regular two-day meeting tomorrow.

The committee meets every six weeks to decide whether to change the Selic rate in pursuit of the government's annual consumer price inflation target, currently 4.5 per cent a year.

If expectations are confirmed, the Selic will rise to 10.25 per cent a year, up from 8.75 per cent when the current tightening cycle began in April.


 


Brazilian equities, currency higher after GDP jump

June 8, 2010, 5:41 p.m. EDT

By Carla Mozee, MarketWatch

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- Brazil's stocks rose for the first time in three sessions, and the currency advanced Tuesday following a report that activity in Latin America's largest economy surged in the first quarter.

Brazil's Bovespa equity index closed up 1.1% to 61,855.52, aided by gains among agricultural, home building, consumer discretionary and steel stocks. Overall gainers were led by a 6.1% climb in MMX Mineracao and a 4.1% rise in sugar and ethanol producer Cosan /quotes/comstock/13*!czz/quotes/nls/czz (CZZ
8.76, +0.21, +2.46%) .

Heavyweights Petrobras /quotes/comstock/13*!pbr/quotes/nls/pbr (PBR
37.10, +1.00, +2.77%) and Vale /quotes/comstock/13*!vale/quotes/nls/vale (VALE
25.81, +0.40, +1.57%) rose 0.5% and 1.1%, respectively.

The currency /quotes/comstock/21o!x:susdbrl (CUR_USDBRL
1.8418, -0.0117, -0.6312%) strengthened to 1.8599 reals per U.S. dollar compared with Monday's level at 1.876 reals.

The assets were pushed higher after IBGE, the country's Census Bureau, said gross domestic product in the first quarter leapt 9% from the same period a year ago, easily outstripping the consensus estimate from Dow Jones Newswires for growth of 7.6%.

The 9% rate marked the highest rate of growth since 1995. Brazil's GDP in 2009 contracted 0.2%.

For the second quarter of this year, there are "already indications of a slowdown," said Finance Minister Guido Mantega in a statement. "The annual growth will be high but the rates along the period are decreasing."

The economy expanded 2.7% from the fourth quarter of 2009. Growth rates for the fourth quarter and the third quarter of 2009 were also upwardly revised.

The "odds that real GDP growth breaches the 7% level are high," wrote Guilherme Loureiro, an economist at Barclays Capital's emerging-markets research unit, in a report to clients.

On the supply side, the industrial sector in the first quarter expanded by a robust 14.6% from a year ago. The biggest "surprise" on the demand side came from investment, which grew 7.4% from the year-ago period, Loureiro wrote. Investment is now 18% of GDP, up from 16.3% a year ago.

Loureiro added that the strong economic recovery "should keep the [Brazilian central bank] in tightening mode."

The first-quarter GDP report arrived a day before Brazilian monetary policy makers are widely expected to lift the key Selic interest rate by 75 basis points. The rate currently stands at 9.5%. It was raised in April from a record low 8.75%.

Meanwhile, in Mexico City, shares of Grupo Mexico (MX:GMEXICOB
29.37, +1.35, +4.82%) climbed 4.2%, its first rise in four sessions, after the copper miner's rating at HSBC was upgraded to overweight from neutral.

A "second look" for South and North American copper miners is warranted after a significant fall in equity valuations that was likely stoked by debt and growth fears, wrote analyst Jordi Dominguez in a note.

The broker also upgraded Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold /quotes/comstock/13*!fcx/quotes/nls/fcx (FCX
62.64, +1.16, +1.89%) and Canada's Teck Resources Ltd. /quotes/comstock/11t!tck.b (CA:TCK.B
32.73, +1.59, +5.11%) /quotes/comstock/13*!tck/quotes/nls/tck (TCK
31.78, +0.51, +1.63%) .

Copper miners might benefit from strong U.S. dollar prices because it lowers costs in a majority of operations, wrote Dominguez. The miners are also "in a position to generate ample cash flows" with copper prices around $3 a pound.

Copper prices traded above $3 last week. July copper on Tuesday rose a penny, or 0.5%, to $2.77 a pound.

The IPC index tracking Mexico's equity market rose 1% to 31,059.83. Chile's IPSA rose 0.4% to 3,876.68, and Argentina's Merval gained 1.7% to 2,236.84.

Carla Mozee is a reporter for MarketWatch, based in Los Angeles.


 


Brazil GDP Surges Ahead of Rate Decision

06/08/10 - 11:34 AM EDT

Brazil economy remains on fire, cementing the need for continued rate hikes despite the growing crisis in Europe. GDP rose 9% year-over-year in the first quarter vs. 4.3% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, and well above the 7.5%-8.5% that officials were hinting at. We've noted before that trend growth for Brazil is thought to be around 4%-4.5% (vs. market expectations of 6.6% in 2010), and so it's not surprising that price pressures have been rising.

Brazil central bank announces its policy decision tomorrow (June 9), and the median market forecast is for a 75 bp hike to 10.25%. The weekly central bank survey still shows that the market expects a year-end rate of 11.75%, same as last week. That implies 225 bp of further tightening in 2010.

Mid-May IPCA inflation was 5.3% year-over-year, the highest since mid-May 2009 and above the 4.5% midpoint of the bank's 2.5%-6.5% target range. While we have been theorizing that the European crisis will push back EM tightening this year, Brazil is one of the few exceptions as its exports/GDP ratio near 10% makes it somewhat less vulnerable to headwinds from Europe. To its credit, the government has tightened fiscal policy in an election year, but may need to do more to dampen growth.

BRL has held up OK during the intensification of the European crisis, down 4.6% so far in the second quarter compared to PLN (worst EM performer, down 17.5% in the second quarter) and putting it in the middle of the EM pack. We believe USD/BRL will remain largely in the 1.75-1.9 range near term, with the risk tilted toward the upside. We remain concerned about developments in Europe that will ultimately determine overall risk appetite and affect EM currencies, and even rates in excess of 10% will be no protection for BRL against these swings in sentiment.

While Brazil fundamentals remain solid, we think that appreciation (not only for BRL but for EM as a whole) will be very limited in the coming months. With an election this fall in Brazil, one should not underestimate the potential for increased volatility in Brazil markets. While we have downplayed political risk for Brazil, it is yet another risk factor that could get magnified in these overall nervous markets.


 


Brazil sees record 9 pct economic growth in 1Q

By BRADLEY BROOKS, Associated Press Writer Bradley Brooks, Associated Press Writer – Tue Jun 8, 1:54 pm ET

RIO DE JANEIRO – Brazil's economy grew by a record 9 percent in the first quarter on strong domestic demand, the government reported Tuesday, a surprisingly good result that prompted a revision of the 2010 growth forecast to 6.5 percent.

"It was more than I'd hoped for," Economy Minister Guido Mantega said. "It shows that the Brazilian economy had one of the best recoveries in the world. Only China has had growth of this magnitude." Mantega said Latin America's largest economy "should see growth of 6 to 6.5 percent" this year, up from earlier predictions of 4.5 percent to 5.5 percent.

However analysts warned that the economy is beginning to overheat — which could spur the central bank to hike a key interest rate to avoid a spike in inflation. "All growth above 5 percent is inflationary," Carlos Safatle, president of the Sao Paulo regional economic council, told the business newspaper Valor Economico. "As the expectation for this year is around 6.5 percent, the central bank is already acting."

The central bank committee that sets the interest rate meets Wednesday to consider whether to change the benchmark Selic rate, currently 9.5 percent. In April, the bank made its first rate hike in almost two years, increasing it by 0.75 percentage points. A similar increase is expected this week.

The latest report on Brazil's gross domestic product from the IBGE government statistics agency said the first-quarter expansion was the strongest recorded since it began using its present methodology in 1995. The IGBE report indicated that annual growth ending in March was 2.4 percent. That figure includes two quarters of negative growth last year. Brazil was among the last nations to be hit by the global financial crisis, and one of the first to emerge from it.

Mantega said deft handling of fiscal and monetary policies, coupled with resilient demand from a growing middle class, is what guided the nation through the meltdown, which began in 2008 and continues to threaten nations such as Greece, Spain and Portugal. The IGBE said industrial output jumped 14.6 percent in the first quarter compared with the same period last year. Services expanded by 5.9 percent, and the powerful agricultural sector grew 5.1 percent.

The report said those numbers point toward strong internal demand.

Brazil's government has also taken steps to stimulate the economy — keeping the interest rate at an all-time low until April, lowering bank reserve requirements, increasing government spending and sparking consumer spending by slashing taxes on new car purchases, among other incentives.

Mantega said the blistering pace is unlikely to be maintained since the first-quarter figures are compared to the first quarter of last year, when the nation was in the throes of the global crisis and the economy contracted 2.1 percent.


 


Brazil sees economy surge by 9%

09/06/2010

Brazil's economy grew at its fastest rate in at least 14 years in the first three months of 2010, official figures have shown.

Its gross domestic product (GDP) surged by 9% compared with the same period a year earlier.

However, higher interest rates and the withdrawal of some tax breaks are expected to cool growth eventually.

Brazil's economy is the largest in Latin America and the eighth-biggest in the world.

Agriculture and industry were among the growth sectors, the government said.

'Confirmation'

Much of Brazil's economy is driven by domestic consumer demand rather than exports - which analysts say means it is relatively insulated from Europe's debt crisis and the projected slow recovery of the US.

"These figures are confirmation of what the market was talking about, a strong first quarter with very strong domestic demand despite the weak external sector," said Pedro Tuesta, senior Latin America economist at research firm 4Cast Inc.

The government said the annual growth was the swiftest pace seen since at least 1996.

Brazil's economy grew by 2.7% on the previous three months - again beating analysts' expectations.


 



 


EL FUERTE AUMENTO DE LA PRODUCCIÓN DE SOJA IMPULSÓ AL SECTOR AGROPECUARIO
Se acelera el crecimiento económico de Brasil: 9% en el primer trimestre
Es en comparación con el mismo período de 2009. La demanda interna alentó la expansión industrial que subió 14,6%. Para fin de año se prevé un alza de 7% del PBI

EFE Brasilia () | Miércoles 9 de junio de 2010


 



 

El fenómeno de la economía brasileña parece imparable: creció un 9% en el primer trimestre del año en comparación al mismo período de 2009, según datos divulgados ayer por el gobierno y que confirman las proyecciones de los analistas según las cuales el líder sudamericano se expande a un ritmo chino.

Además de haber alcanzado su mayor desarrollo económico en un primer trimestre en los últimos 16 años, el Producto Bruto Interno (PBI) del primer trimestre creció un 2,7% frente al último trimestre del año pasado.

Ese desarrollo trimestral permite proyectar un aumento anualizado del 10% para la potencia latinoamericana. Sin embargo, las previsiones de los economistas estiman que el ritmo comience a desacelerar en los próximos meses y que el país termine este año con un crecimiento del 6,6%.

Paralelamente, el sorprendente desarrollo confirman la rápida recuperación de la economía brasileña tras la contracción del 0,2% que el país sufrió en 2009 como consecuencia de la crisis mundial.

Industria fuerte

Los analistas explican que el fuerte impulso que tomó la economía brasileña en este primer trimestre se debió principalmente por la industria, cuya producción aumentó un 14,6% frente a la del mismo período del año pasado, según los datos divulgados por el estatal Instituto Brasileño de Geografía y Estadísticas (IBGE).

En otro aspecto, la construcción civil creció un 14,9% beneficiada por el aumento del crédito para la vivienda, mientras que la extracción mineral aumentó un 13,2% principalmente por el aumento del 52% de la producción de hierro, del que Brasil es el mayor exportador mundial.

El sector agropecuario también tuvo un buen desempeño impulsado por el fuerte aumento de la producción de soja (19%).

Para los analistas, otro de los motivos de esta expansión económica es por el aumento del consumo de las familias, que creció un 9,3% frente al primer trimestre del año pasado, ya que los gastos de la administración pública sólo subieron el 2%. En este contexto, según el IBGE, el PBI brasileño en el primer trimestre sumó 826.400 millones de reales ( u$s 446.703 millones). El ente también informó que la llamada Formación Bruta de Capital Fijo creció un 26% en el primer trimestre frente a los tres primeros meses de 2009.

Finalmente, el crecimiento de la construcción civil y el de las importaciones de bienes y servicios, que llegó a un 39,5%, fueron las mayores expansiones para estos importantes sectores desde que sus índices comenzaron a ser medidos en 1995.


 


El real brasileño se levantó tras la difusión de un auspicioso dato del PBI

Miércoles 9 de junio de 2010

El "exuberante" crecimiento que muestra la actividad en Brasil alcanzó para derramar optimismo ayer sobre todos los activos del país. En ese contexto, el real brasileño se apreció con fuerza y alcanzó a recuperar todo lo perdido durante el lunes. Fue luego de que el gobierno de Brasil anunciara el mayor avance de la economía en más de una década: el Producto Bruto Interno (PBI)creció 9% durante el primer trimestre del año. El dato se impuso en el ánimo, en una jornada que arrojó pocos indicadores externos. La moneda brasileña se fortaleció así 0,96% y llegó a cotizar a 1,860 unidades por dólar para la venta, tras haber retrocedido un 1,02% en la rueda previa. Se espera que hoy el Banco Central vuelva a subir la tasa de referencia, lo que debería darle nuevo impulso a la moneda. La bolsa de San Pablo acompañó con fuerza y la mayoría de sus papeles cotizantes treparon significativamente. El Bovespa ganó ayer 1,1%, a 61.855,52 puntos, con lo que absorbió la pérdida del 0,8% registrada el lunes.


 


ABRIRÁ EL PRIMER LOCAL A FIN DE AÑO BAJO LA MARCA ATACADAO

Carrefour 'importa' formato brasileño para competir en el negocio mayorista

Desembarca en un mercado liderado por Makro, abriendo en la localidad bonaerense de Laferrere una filial de la mayor cadena de distribución mayorista del país vecino


Además de profundizar su incursión en el negocio de las tiendas de proximidad de la mano de su formato Express y Mini, y de encarar un plan de nuevas aperturas de sus hipermercados, Carrefour también desembarcará este año en el segmento mayorista.

Lo hará de la mano de un formato que importará de Brasil. Allí, el grupo francés controla una de las mayores cadenas mayoristas que opera bajo el nombre de Atacadao.

Carrefour adquirió esta compañía en 2007 por casi u$s 1.000 millones en el marco de una transacción que le permitió alcanzar una posición de liderazgo en el mercado brasileño de distribución de alimentos.

Atacadao, que precisamente significa mayorista en portugués, también será el nombre que llevará el nuevo híper mayorista argentino. El objetivo que persigue la filial local de la cadena francesa es llegar a clientes a los que actualmente no abastece a través de sus otros formatos como comerciantes pequeños y medianos que hoy hacen sus compras en otros canales mayoristas.

El primer local Atacadao en el país será inaugurado a fin de año en la localidad bonaerense de Laferrere. Será un establecimiento de 7.000 metros cuadrados de salón y funcionará al estilo Makro, cadena que en el país lidera el negocio mayorista.

Al mismo estilo que esta marca, Atacadao venderá tanto a pequeños y medianos comerciantes como a consumidores particulares, a precios más bajos que los de los hipermercados. El local contaría además con una zona de carga especialmente diseñada para vehículos particulares.

Se trata de la primera vez que Carrefour copia un modelo de un país de la región para replicarlo en otros lugares del mundo. De hecho, este mes ya abrió un local Atacadao en Colombia y, además de la Argentina, la cadena también llevará el formato a España y China.

El local de Laferrere insumirá una inversión de $ 50 millones y ofrecerá alrededor de 6.000 a 7.000 ítems. Si el modelo es íntegramente copiado al estilo brasileño, debería abrir sus puertas todos los días desde las 5 de la mañana.

En Brasil, Atacadao es hoy la mayor cadena de hipermercados de descuento, con 62 tiendas. Anualmente, registra ingresos cercanos a los u$s 1.700 millones y ofrece 10.000 ítems entre alimentos en general, carnes frías y lácteos, hortalizas, legumbres y frutas, bebidas, conservas y enlatados, dulces y bizcochos, higiene personal, limpieza, bazar, aparatos electrónicos, electrodomésticos, tienda de mascotas, y automotriz, entre otros rubros.

terça-feira, 8 de junho de 2010

Clipping Internacional, 08 de junho de 2010


New Brazilian fairness leaves behind bitterness of past era


By Zhou Zhiwei | Illustration: Liu Rui | June 07 2010

The new emerging countries, such as Brazil, Russia, India and China, are often lumped together as a group. But what they have in common is their status as rapidly developing nations, not a shared developmental model. Brazil's development model, for instance, is very different from China's and India's, and has produced different outcomes.

Unlike its economic miracles of the past century, the current economic growth of Brazil, based on macroeconomic stability, is a form of coordinated and balanced social development. The sustainable growth targets reflect Brazil's pursuit of the quality of economic development. These concepts are a very good reference point for other emerging countries.

Since the return of democracy in 1985, democratic institutions in Brazil have been effectively promoted and consolidated. After three election failures, current president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (usually known as Lula), then a left-wing radical, became more pragmatic. He took office and established an extensive government alliance including central and right-wing parties, which created a favorable environment for political stability, democratic consolidation and economic development. This is why Lula is defined as a "moderate leftist," in contrast to radicals like other Latin American leaders.

According to a number of economic and social indicators, Brazil is experiencing its best development period ever. Prudent fiscal and monetary policies have helped Brazil enter a long period of rapid economic growth. The annual growth rate of Brazil reached 4 percent from 2003 to 2008, making it among the top 10 fastest growing nations in the world.

Lula once promised three meals a day for the poor, and an important characteristic of the current Brazilian model is balanced economic and social development. Through the implementation of zero hunger and family assistance fund policies, the Brazilian social development indicator index has been enhanced significantly.

The Gini coefficient, which measures inequality, has been declining for the past decade, while the human development index has risen to more than 0.8. The percentage of the population living in absolute poverty has sharply decreased, while the middle class now makes up 52 percent of the Brazilian population.

While achieving coordinated economic and social development, Brazil has also increased its involvement in international affairs, aiming at becoming a permanent member of the UN Security Council.

Brazil hopes to enhance its international influence and achieve greater participation in international configuration changes by working together with emerging powers. In dealing with international peacekeeping operations, the Middle East peace problem and the Iranian nuclear issue, Brazil is looking to upgrade from a regional power to a world power. It is attempting to improve its soft power through backing international campaigns.

Although the active and assertive international strategy of Brazil doesn't have sufficient national strength behind it, the daring diplomatic style of seeking equality, justice and multilateral principles has widened Brazil's diplomatic territory and enhanced its influence.

Brazil has changed from the aggressive approach of simply pursuing economic growth. Although the Brazilian economic growth rate is behind China's and India's, its methodology of coordinated and simultaneous development of all areas is a very good model for other developing countries.

More importantly, although Brazil and other emerging countries face similar development chal-lenges, their level of development is actually different.

After more than half a century's development, Brazil has completed the process of industrialization. Its industrial structure is much closer to developed countries, which means the current problems in Brazil might also be future bottlenecks of other emerging countries, such as polarization between the rich and the poor, overloaded urbanization, a widening urban-rural disparity and regional economic imbalances.

Brazil is trying to overcome the remaining problems of its aggressive development model. The transformation of Brazil's development model can not only serve as an early warning for emerging countries, but also provide guidelines for sustainable development.

For emerging countries, blindly pursuing high economic growth and ignoring the balance between efficiency and justice will lead to impeded social development and an imbalanced economic structure. It could even destroy current economic achievements and endanger the stability of the regime.

This is the bitter fruit that Brazil tasted after the rapid economic growth of the 1970s. It took Brazil a detour of 20 years of slow development to treat these complications, and the conse-quences are still being felt.

The author is secretary-general of the Center for Brazilian Studies, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. forum@globaltimes. com.cn


 


2010-06-07 07:58

Will the BRIC countries' coordinated mechanisms bring international cooperation into action? How seriously should analysts take the term BRIC? Two experts express their views.

Global cooperation thick as BRIC


Gina Caballero

An ingenious idea takes on a life of its own. Thinking globalization was not going nor is supposed to be Americanization, Jim O'Neill envisioned the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China). These four non-Western countries' economic prowess and keenness to embrace global markets buttressed his belief that their future economic weight would reorganize world policymaking forums. So after the BRIC nations began trading in the banking sector, the four countries decided to bolster the label by grouping together.

This not only reflects their understanding of globalization, albeit a socio-economic process enriched by different civilizations' philosophical traditions, but also their initiative to lead that process into the creation of a new multilateral, equitable and democratic world order. The tenets of such a world order are no other than the principles under which the four countries have held their meetings: mutual respect, equality and shared benefits.

In April, BRIC heads of state gathered again in Brasilia for their second summit to advocate cooperation, coordinated action and collective decision-making of all the states. As emerging economic engines expected to add most of the 2 billion people who are estimated to join the global middle class by 2030, BRIC move in tandem with the developing world in pursuit of common development and prosperity.

To enhance developing countries' growth potential and fight against poverty, BRIC countries, as declared in their joint statement "support technical and financial cooperation as a means to contribute to the achievement of sustainable social development, with social protection, full employment, and decent work policies and programs". Joint efforts and actions to improve the living conditions of people in the developing world are part of the BRIC nations' commitment to lift them into stable secured lives.

Bringing in more people into the growing global middle class will move forward the sense of shared ownership, distinctive of a multi-polar world order. Moreover, it will continue to clear out the via media for countries in the periphery to gradually root out inequality and social exclusion that result from the present world stratification system.

To do so, the four countries could innovate different frameworks with their appropriate platforms to promote the common interests of emerging market economies and developing countries. Within, the four countries already developing these types of engagement mechanisms, as the first BRIC think tank seminar held alongside the second BRIC summit testifies. The BRIC + IBSA (India, Brazil and South Africa) business forum, too, is a sign of the concerted efforts being made to reach out through dialogue and cooperation other important players in today's world.

It is therefore possible, to build a comprehensively strategic issue-by-issue network with the developing world. Based on experiences, the BRIC countries could extend the forums to invite other developing countries to discuss a wide range of issues. For example, the BRIC countries designed a platform for women of other developing countries, including China, to come together and, through South-South cooperation, formulate proposals for an integrated gender approach in macroeconomic policies. The platform was based on the IBSA Women's Forum, held before the fourth IBSA summit on April 15.

Furthermore, to pragmatically promote international cooperation on financial and trade issues, terrorism, food security, energy, climate change and sustainable development, the BRIC nations could draw more frameworks for building a bridge between developed and developing countries.

On the issue of sustainable development, a BRIC + 5 (Japan, Germany, Singapore, Canada and Australia) sustainable technologies platform would, through the sharing of environmentally sound technology and successful local experiences, address in concrete terms the challenges and constraints the BRIC countries still face in cultivating a green economy.

Continuing to build a far stretch bridge towards a truly mutually beneficial and multilateral world system, the BRIC countries could then meet with, for instance, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria and Turkey under a BRIC + 5 sustainable development platform, to follow up on the relevant technologies and lessons learned from their previous BRIC + 5 sustainable technologies meeting. In this way - providing a participative mechanism for discussing and exchanging green development modes - the countries could adapt to their specific national characteristics and socio-economic conditions. Like economic spillovers do, these sustainable technologies and practices, too, could spill over into the regions of the five developing countries.

Hence, while the BRIC nations open up more round tables of specific issues for discussion, they could gradually start opening dialogues with other developing countries to share developmental practices and views on mutual interests and concerns.

With this political structure, the BRIC countries will advance the active participation of the developing world in global governance. And through exemplary South-South cooperation, they can set the guideline for developed countries to interact with them. Leading the developing world, the BRIC countries' strategic coordinated mechanisms could bring international cooperation into action. This can only herald the coming on of a multi-polar harmonious world system.

The author is the Beijing academic correspondent of Colombia-based research center Asia Pacific Observatory and runs LatinChina Network for Development, an NGO that promotes common understanding and active cooperation between China and Latin America.

Nothing to bind group together

Joseph S. Nye

Journalists continue to lavish attention on the so-called BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China), but I remain skeptical of the concept. Goldman Sachs coined the term in 2001 to draw attention to profitable opportunities in what it considered "emerging markets".

The BRIC countries' share of world GDP rose from 16 percent in 2000 to 22 percent in 2008. Collectively they did better than average in the subsequent global recession. Together, they account for 42 percent of world population and one-third of global economic growth in the past 10 years.

Obviously, that is good news for the world economy, but an economic term has taken on a political life of its own, despite the fact that Russia fits poorly in the category. In June 2009, the foreign ministers of the four countries met for the first time in Yekaterinburg, Russia, to transform a catchy acronym into an international political force.

The BRIC nations hold $2.8 trillion or 42 percent of global foreign reserves (though most of that is held by China.) So, in Yekaterinburg, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev declared: "There can be no successful global currency system if the financial instruments that are used are denominated in only one currency."

After China eclipsed the US as Brazil's largest trading partner, Beijing and Brasilia announced plans to settle trade in their national currencies rather than dollars. And although Russia accounts for only 5 percent of China's trade, the two countries announced a similar agreement.

After the recent financial crisis, Goldman Sachs upped the ante and projected that the combined GDP of the BRIC countries might exceed that of the G7 countries by 2027, about 10 years sooner than initially believed. Such simple extrapolations of current economic growth rates often turn out to be mistaken because of unforeseen events. But, whatever the merits of this linear economic projection, the term BRIC still makes little sense for long-term assessments of global power relations.

While a BRIC meeting may be convenient for coordinating some short-term diplomatic tactics, the term lumps together disparate countries that have deep divisions. It makes little sense to include Russia, a former superpower, with three developing economies. Of the four members, Russia has the smallest and most literate population and a much higher per capita income, but, more importantly, many observers believe that Russia is declining while the other three are rising in power resources.

Russia today not only suffers more from the aftermath of the global recession, but also faces severe long-term liabilities: a lack of diversified exports, severe demographic and health problems, and, in Medvedev's own words, an urgent need for "modernization".

When one looks closely at the numbers, the heart of the BRIC acronym is the rise in China's resources. The role of Brazil is a pleasant surprise, though.

Since curbing inflation and introducing market reform in the 1990s, Brazil has shown an impressive rate of economic growth in the range of 5 percent. With a territory nearly three times the size of India's, 90 percent of its 200 million people literate, a $2-trillion GDP equivalent to Russia's and per capita income of $10,000 (three times India's and nearly twice China's), Brazil has impressive power resources. In 2007, the discovery of massive offshore oil reserves promised to make Brazil a significant power in the energy arena as well.

Brazil, like the other BRIC countries, also faces a serious number of problems. It ranks 75th out of 180 countries on Transparency International's corruption perceptions index (compared to 79th for China, 84th for India, and 146th for Russia). The World Economic Forum ranks Brazil 56th among 133 countries in terms of economic competitiveness (compared to 29th for China, 49th for India, and 63rd for Russia). Poverty and inequality remain serious problems. Brazil's Gini coefficient is 0.57 (1.0 is perfect inequality, with one person receiving all income), compared to 0.45 for the US, 0.46 for China, 0.37 for India and 0.42 for Russia.

So, how seriously should analysts take the term BRIC? As an indicator of economic opportunity, they should welcome it, though it would make more sense if Indonesia replaced Russia. In political terms, China, India, and Russia are competitors for power in Asia, and Brazil and India have been hurt by China's undervalued currency. Thus, BRIC is not likely to become a serious political organization of like-minded states.


 


Posted on June 5th, 2010

Terrible Twins: Turkey, Brazil and the Future of American Foreign Policy


These days, there's an unusual spectacle in world affairs.  The United States has relatively good relations with the major powers: China, the EU states, India and even Russia are all more or less working together.  But two middle powers, Turkey and Brazil, are not only asserting themselves more effectively than in the past; they have chosen to do this is ways that run counter to US policies.  In particular their united and coordinated opposition to US policy on Iran has raised eyebrows and significantly complicated what was already a very difficult situation for American diplomacy.  More recently, the strong reaction in Turkey to the Israeli interception of a convoy organized by Turkish groups with aid for Gaza underlines the possibility that Turkey is moving decisively away from its longtime partnership with the United States.

The new bout of activism by these middle powers is a harbinger of things to come, not only in Turkish and Brazilian foreign policy but it the policies of a number of other middle powers that can be expected to become more assertive going forward.  They are going to enjoy tacit and sometimes overt support from some of the great powers who would also like to see us taken down a peg or two.  The American establishment by and large was taken by surprise by the new and more difficult Brazilian and Turkish foreign policies; it's worth looking a little deeper to see what is behind this and see what lessons if any there are for the future.

Turkey and Brazil are very different places, but in some key ways their situation is very similar.  First, they are ambitious powers who live in what, during the Cold War, was an American sphere of interest where the options of smaller powers were limited.  In both cases, the post Cold War world has gradually opened up fresh avenues for foreign policy.  For both Turkey and Brazil, the first step to recovering more independence and playing a wider role is to complete the liquidation of the Cold War order, which they both interpret as freeing themselves of their foreign policy dependence on Washington.  For Turkey and Brazil to become the kind of powers they want to be, American power must be reduced.

Second, in both countries new forces are rising to political power.  Formerly both Turkey and Brazil were formally democratic but in practice power was held by a relatively small and well connected elite: international businessmen, elite opinion leaders and a small military and civilian foreign policy elite.  In both countries, that is changing.  Brazil's Lula was long a radical and unacceptable figure to the Brazilian establishment; his entry into power meant that a new kind of Brazilian (poorer, less well educated, more internally focused, often darker skinned and left leaning) was coming on scene.  In Turkey, the victory of the AK Party was also a kind of domestic revolution, overturning the old west-leaning, cosmopolitan and secular Kemalist establishment that had ruled the country ever since the 1920s.  The new powers in Turkey are more religious, more inward-looking, more based in Anatolia than in cosmopolitan central Istanbul.

Both Turkey and Brazil are now more democratic, but that democracy does not translate into pro-American or pro-globalization.  In both cases, the democratization of national life means greater power for those who feel different from and alienated by the world order that the United States is trying to build.   In both cases there is a kind of intersection between realpolitik, the interests of the state, and the politics of civilization.  The old cosmopolitan elites were relatively westernized and globalized in their assumptions; the new, more broadly based ones are not.  In Brazil they share the historic Latin suspicion of and hostility to 'Anglo-Saxon capitalism' and a world order based on it.  In Turkey, the new powers are much more likely to see the West as a rival and even an oppressor rather than, as in the Kemalist days, a goal and a destination.


If you combine the geopolitical and cultural realities, you see two countries whose interests are diverging from those of the United States and are also increasingly shaped by cultural forces that oppose the historical American project of building a global liberal capitalist order.  That is a powerful combination of forces, and no one should think that the recent foreign policy conflicts with the United States are small things.  Something fundamental is changing here, and we, the Turks and the Brazilians will only slowly come to understand what has happened and what it means.

That is not all.  Both Turkey and Brazil are at a point in time when both their external and internal situations favor anti-US foreign policy moves.  In the Middle East, taking an anti-American line builds Turkish influence and opens doors across the region.  Fading Russian and European power in the Middle East creates a vacuum which a newly ambitious Turkey can hope to fill; anti-American and anti-Israel policies win friends and supporters for Turkey as it flexes its regional muscles.  (Fading Russian power also makes Turkey less afraid of its northern neighbor; Turkey feels increasingly confident that it can manage its relationship with Russia without an American big brother to protect it.)  In Latin America, strategic neglect and strategic failure by three American administrations (Clinton, Bush, Obama) have left the United States with fewer friends, more enemies, and less leverage than at any time since World War Two.  Argentina, Brazil's historical rival in South America, is confused and distracted with a weak political establishment and weak economy; alienated from the United States and concerned with internal economic issues, Argentina is in no position to undercut Brazil's latest attempt to establish itself as the leading power in South America.  By playing an anti-American card, Lula builds support for his vision and his party in Brazil, even as he relegates Venezuela's Hugo Chavez to the second division in Latin America.  In the short run, the Brazilian economy has managed the global downturn well; in the long term, the continuing rise of India and China mean that there will be more foreign consumers for Brazil's exports and investors in its enterprises.  Add to that the impact of massive off-shore oil discoveries, and it is not surprising that Brazil is feeling feisty.

So we have two countries who increasingly want to defy the United States, are able to do so, and find at least in the short term that an anti-American stance enhances their political prospects.  Under these circumstances, we ought not to be surprised by the new directions in Turkish and Brazilian foreign policy.

The first question for the United States is what this means; the start is to clean out some of the intellectual deadwood that prevents us from seeing the world as it is.  Presidents Clinton, Bush and Obama all came into power with One Big Idea; it is President Obama's unhappy fate to be in office when all three Big Ideas that have shaped American foreign policy since 1993 came unglued.  They are all forms of the persistent American faith in progress: the idea that social, political and economic development will lead to the establishment of a harmonious world system made up of peaceful democracies.  Perhaps, in the very long run, this will turn out to be true, but it is certainly not the case today.

The Clinton administration's foreign policy centered on the idea that globalization would create a new and peaceful world.  The Bush administration believed that advancing democracy would bring peace and stability.  And President Obama appears to believe that the rest of the world is naturally disposed to cooperate with America's global project, and that America's job is to be something like the coach of Team World as we go about settling various problems on the basis of consensus.

The first message of Brazil and Turkey is that there is no team, there is no consensus, and a great many countries and peoples around the world do not like the kind of world that America is trying to make.  President Obama can be polite and considerate (as when he made a speech in Istanbul to reach out to the Islamic world) or he can be abrasive and rude (as when he flew to Copenhagen in the failed attempt to deprive Lula of the honor of hosting South America's first Olympic games) but it doesn't make much difference.  Brazil and Turkey believe they have interests and goals which require the frustration of President Obama's plans and they have no hesitation in acting to thwart him.  It is actually an enormous form of American vanity to assume that what we want is so right, so good for everyone and so manifestly the best possible road forward that the world will willingly follow our lead.

But if Brazil and Turkey torpedo one of Obama's core ideas, they are also living contradictions of President Bush's belief that the advance of democracy in the developing world would advance America's foreign policy interests.  In both countries it is forces newly empowered by democracy that are opposing the American attempt to stop the Iranian nuclear program.  If the old elites were still securely in place, Turkey and Brazil would be less difficult and more predictable players on the international stage.  As countries become more democratic, they become more responsive to cultural and economic interests that resent the world's power structure and seek ways to change it.  It is possibly true that after a period of settling down and trial and error democratic publics will make shrewder choices, but this can take decades and generations.  One must also note that democracies do not always side with democracies against dictators; democracy is not a magic bullet that will give the present generation of policymakers a quieter life.

And finally, these developments in Turkey and Brazil expose the flawed thinking behind the Clinton administration's belief that the promotion of globalization would unleash the kind of economic development that would consolidate a peaceful world under American leadership.  Few countries have benefited more from globalization than these two dynamic economies, but that economic development has not led (and is unlikely to lead anytime soon) to the kind of foreign policy cooperation Washington wants.  This is partly because success makes leaders feisty; they believe that their rapidly increasing economic clout should give them more political say in the way the world works.  Development also empowers more voices in society to speak up: in Thailand as well as in Brazil and Turkey, rapid economic growth supports the rise of new groups of interests and actors in domestic politics with interests and outlooks very different from those of the old elites.

In other words, many of the core policies which Americans have pursued in the hope of achieving stability while consolidating American leadership are making American leadership increasingly difficult in an increasingly unstable world.

At the moment, Brazil and Turkey are more annoyance than threat (though geography and culture makes Turkey the more serious of the two for the moment).  And the efforts the administration is making to improve relations with the really big powers will make it harder for the middleweights to have as much effect as they hope.  But if the American foreign policy establishment can't liberate itself from some of the Whig fantasies that currently envelope liberals, neo-conservatives and realists alike, we are going to face much greater problems as reality stubbornly refuses to follow our script.

For President Obama, the hardest part may be to give up on the dream of global multilateral solutions to the world's big problems.  Not everyone is going to go along with him on global warming and nuclear proliferation.  There are powers out there who are consciously out to frustrate, block and if possible defeat the United States on important international issues — even when we are, in our own eyes at least, the 'good guys'.  They don't oppose us because President Bush offended their moral sense and alienated their affections; they are serious adult people who believe that greater American power and success is a threat to their own security and well being and who are ready, willing and even eager to do business with dark forces in pursuit of a common agenda to frustrate the United States.  They aren't terrorists and in most cases they don't sympathize with terrorists; they simply represent elements in the international system whose interests and in some cases vision is opposed to our own.

This means that President Obama is going to have to use power to get his way rather than relying on sweet reason and the power of his ideals.  He's going to have to persuade countries that going along with the United States is better than defying us, and to do that he's going to have to think about how to make people pay when they make the wrong choice.  Otherwise his great ideals will not come to fruition.  He can kiss non-proliferation goodbye, for starters, if he can't stop Iran from getting the bomb.

None of this means that America is losing its power in the world, but it does mean the end of the dream that our immediate goal is the abolition of foreign policy and the society of states.  We are not going to replace the Westphalian order with the Parliament of Man anytime soon.  Instead, foreign policy is going to be about warding off threats, dealing with opponents, building coalitions and advancing our commercial interests where we can.  Globalization and democracy aren't (thank goodness) going away, but neither will they make our problems disappear.

Hang onto your seats, friends.  The world is getting more complicated — and more dangerous — all7 the time.


 


Lula's Candidate Surges in Brazil

08/06/2010

By ROGERIO JELMAYER and JOHN LYONS

SÃO PAULO—Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's hand-picked successor has surged against her rival in a series of new polls, increasing the chances that the leftist Workers Party will remain in power after October elections.

Dilma Rousseff, Mr. da Silva's former chief of staff and the Workers' Party presidential candidate, rose five percentage points since a similar poll was taken in April. She is now tied at 37% with opposition politician José Serra, a former São Paulo governor, according to the Ibope research firm.

Mr. Serra's tally of likely voters fell by three percentage points in the poll released over the weekend. Other recent polls show similar results.

While presidential campaigns in this soccer-crazed nation don't kick into gear until after the World Cup concludes in July, Ms. Rousseff appears to have notched early momentum. One explanation may be an economic forecast of 6% growth this year, as well as expanded government aid for low-income families, some analysts say.

Another advantage Ms. Rousseff is exploiting is the popularity of President da Silva, who is ineligible to run after two terms. Mr. da Silva defeated Mr. Serra in 2002. Despite protests that such activities go against electoral rules, Mr. da Silva appears with Ms. Rousseff at public events.

A onetime Marxist guerrilla, Ms. Rousseff has worked to disarm critics who say she will steer the nation sharply to the left.

During a recent speech to investors in New York, for example Ms. Rousseff said she is committed to preserving a floating exchange rate, fighting inflation and maintaining the government's hands-off policy toward central-bank rate decisions.

Some Brazilian brokers say they doubt Ms. Rousseff's commitment to pro-market economics.

Her radical background appears unlikely to spook international investors, in part because similar warnings eight years ago about Mr. da Silva turned out to be unfounded.


 


Why Beer Can Shortage Means Meirelles Will Boost Brazilian Rate

June 08, 2010, 12:43 AM EDT

By Carla Simoes and Iuri Dantas

June 8 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil is running out of beer cans and farmers are leaving crops in the field as surging demand and Chinese-like growth leads to shortages in Latin America's biggest economy. Cia de Bebidas das Americas, the region's largest brewer, had to import beer cans for the first time in its 125-year history after local supplies were exhausted. Acucar Guarani SA, the country's third-biggest sugar producer by market value, left 10 percent of its crop sitting in the fields an extra 40 days because of a shortage of tires for its harvesters, even after the commodity hit a 29-year high in February.

"We had some machines standing by just waiting for tires," said Jaime Stupiello, agricultural director for Acucar Guarani, in a June 1 phone interview from Sao Paulo. "We tried to buy directly from China, but they didn't have tires for delivery either." The shortages are one result of economic growth forecast to quicken to 6.6 percent this year, the fastest pace in two decades. That expansion, in excess of the economy's potential of 4.5 percent, is forcing central bank President Henrique Meirelles to raise interest rates to control inflation above the government's target since January, said Elson Teles, chief economist at Maxima Asset Management SA in Rio de Janeiro.

'Chinese Pace'

"National demand is growing at a Chinese pace," said Teles in a telephone interview. "That's why the central bank will keep raising the Selic and the Finance Ministry is trying to reduce pressure on the bank by cutting spending." Brazil's gross domestic product may have expanded 8.5 percent on an annual basis in the first quarter, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 41 analysts. Brazil reports first quarter GDP at 8 a.m. New York time. China's GDP climbed 11.9 percent in the first quarter, the most in almost three years.

Inflation quickened to a 12-month high of 5.26 percent last month and may reach 5.64 percent this year, according to a central bank survey of about 100 economists published June 7. The government targets inflation of 4.5 percent. Brazilian policy makers became the first in Latin America to raise borrowing costs when they increased the benchmark interest rate to 9.5 percent in April from a record low of 8.75 percent. The bank will raise the rate another 0.75 percentage point June 9, according to 40 of 44 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Two analysts forecast a full percentage point increase while two see the bank raising by half a point.

'Tightening Mood'

Brazil's economy is "overheating" and policy makers are in a "tightening mood," Meirelles, 64, said in a June 4 interview with Bloomberg Television in Busan, South Korea. The government is cutting spending by 10 billion reais ($5.3 billion) to cool the economy before the interest rate increases take hold, Finance Minister Guido Mantega said May 13. Across the nation, companies are struggling to keep up with demand that's been rising as unemployment hovers near a record low 6.8 percent, salaries rise and the 30 million Brazilians who have left poverty since President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva took office in 2003 increase spending. Retail sales rose 15.7 percent in March from a year earlier, the highest on record.

Ambev, the maker of Antarctica and Brahma beers, has so far resisted passing on to consumers higher costs for freight and a tightening job market because of competitive pressures, said Nelson Jamel, the company's financial director. The company began importing cans after first quarter profit rose 3.9 percent to 1.65 billion reais, more than the 1.48 billion reais forecast in a Bloomberg survey. The company plans to double its annual investments to 2 billion reais to expand production, Jamel said.

Good Problems

"To keep growing we have to confront some good problems now," Jamel, 38, said in a June 2 phone interview. "There are some cost pressures that come with meeting this demand." Delivery of heavy trucks is being delayed by up to 60 days, said Ricardo Pamplona, president of Gotemburgo Veiculos Ltda, a Volvo retailer with nine stores in northeastern Brazil, traditionally Brazil's poorest region. Sales are up 40 percent so far this year and the company expects to sell 1,200 trucks by the end of December, 66 percent more than in 2009, he said, thanks to demand from civil construction, retail and agricultural users.

The truck shortage is pushing up the costs of shipping goods from the industrial heartland in Brazil's southeast to other parts of the country, Sussumu Honda, head of the national supermarkets association, said in an interview. In response to the shortages, Brazil reduced import tariffs on 16 products, including sardines, palm oil, beer cans and beer labels, over the past year, according to Trade Ministry figures.

Roubini Speech

Even with a financial crisis in Europe that will depress exports, the outlook for Brazil's economy is "very positive," Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the global financial crisis, said in a May 31 speech in Sao Paulo. Roubini, 52, recommended that Brazilian policy makers take steps to limit the appreciation of the real, including the "judicious" use of capital controls. The currency has gained 4.4 percent against the dollar over the past 12 months.

Stronger Real

To be sure, the stronger real has made exports more expensive in dollar terms, and the economy could be hit by a fall in commodity prices, which are likely to decline over the next 6 months to 12 months because of a possible double-dip recession in Europe and a U.S. slowdown, Roubini said. Exports account for 10 percent of Brazil's GDP compared with about 33 percent for Chile and 17 percent for Argentina, meaning that any slowdown in Europe is unlikely to significantly impact growth, Bank of America said in a May 28 report.

"What makes Brazil unique is the strength of domestic demand," said Neil Shearing, an emerging markets economist at Capital Economics Ltd., in a phone interview from London. "If this isn't a V-shaped recovery, I don't know what is."


 


Latam Watch: Market Expects High Brazil Growth & Inflation, 75 bps Rate Hike

June 07, 2010

Brazil's Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) will see two big releases before its decision Wednesday: first quarter GDP Tuesday, and May IPCA inflation Wednesday morning.

Estimates for first quarter GDP growth vary, but nearly all analysts expect a number far above what is considered Brazil's 4-5% limit for sustainable growth.

Finance Minister Guido Mantega has said the economy may be growing at a 10% annualized rate, while Brazil's largest private sector bank, Banco Itau, is forecasting 3% quarter over quarter growth, for a 12.6% annualized rate.

Although this spurt is expected to slow as the year goes on -- Banco Itau expects a 4.5% average growth rate for the next three quarters -- monetary policy will have to help cool off the economy.

On Sao Paulo futures markets, the overwhelming majority of bets are that policymakers will raise the Selic overnight rate 75 basis points to 10.25% this week.

The Central Bank's "Focus" survey of local financial institutions shows the same expectation among economists and analysts, who also project May inflation of 0.45% -- a rate above policymakers' 4.5% annual target -- though June inflation is expected to fall to 0.28%.

How much of recent inflation has been seasonal -- driven especially by food prices -- is a matter for debate among analysts, who also disagree as to how much the economy will cool on its own.

Still, with fiscal policy continuing expansionary, and Central Bank President Henrique Meirelles eager to leave office with his legacy of price stability intact, the majority bet is for Copom to keep hiking the Selic in 75 bps increments until the overnight rate reaches 11.75%.

For the market to change this consensus expectation, analysts say, policymakers will have to hint at a changed scenario either in their statement Wednesday, or their minutes the week after.

Possible reasons for a more benign inflation scenario in Brazil come from the international scenario, which makes a spike in commodity prices -- cited as a risk in past Copom minutes -- less likely, while Brazil's currency has remained strong.

Source: LatamWatch


 


La gran brecha económica, telón de fondo de las pujas con Brasil

08/06/10 | PorAlcadio Oña


Cuanto menos muy ambiciosos, son algunos de los objetivos que la ministra de Industria se plantea alcanzar en la relación con Brasil. Según sus palabras, "reequilibrar el desarrollo industrial y equiparar la balanza comercial" .

En esos términos Débora Giorgi presentó las conversaciones que ella y Amado Boudou mantendrán, esta semana, con los ministros brasileños de Economía, Guido Mantega, y de Industria, Miguel Jorge. El encuentro fue convenido por Cristina Kirchner y Lula da Silva después del cruce por las trabas al ingreso de alimentos y, como se advierte, no participará Guillermo Moreno.

Ya significará todo un trabajo achicar el déficit comercial, y uno bastante mayor equiparar la balanza. En cambio, suena a casi imposible reequilibrar el desarrollo industrial. Simplemente, porque cosas semejantes no se logran con diálogos bilaterales, sino, en gran medida, a través de políticas y estrategias propias de mediano y largo plazo.

En los cinco primeros meses de este año, según cifras oficiales de Brasil, la Argentina acusó un déficit de 919 millones de dólares en el comercio bilateral. Y es un dato nada menor que haya sido consecuencia de un aumento de las importaciones del 62 %, contra una suba de las exportaciones del 37 %.

La Argentina tuvo épocas de superávit, antes y en el pasado reciente, como entre 2000 y 2003: algunas veces porque le vendía mucho trigo; otras, porque importaba desde otros lugares del mundo. Pero en los últimos cinco años registró un desequilibrio de US$ 17.000 millones , según el INDEC.

Una primera lectura que surge de esas cuentas es que cuando la economía argentina crece, aumentan las compras a Brasil. Y otra, ya más estructural, revela que la industria local es muy dependiente de los bienes brasileños: el grueso son vehículos, autopartes, electrónicos, maquinarias y productos para la siderurgia.

Está claro que si vienen de allí es porque aquí no se lo fabrica. Dicho de otra manera, falta producción nacional capaz de sustituir aquellas u otras importaciones. Y así es, aun cuando la disparidad relativa de los tipos de cambio favorezca a la Argentina, tal cual sucedió en los últimos cinco años.

Es cierto que si la economía brasileña crece, como ahora, también crecen las exportaciones argentinas. Justamente, esa demanda alimenta parte de la actual reactivación. En el trasfondo de la brecha comercial y de las pujas constantes anida una muy desigual estructura productiva. Para empezar, el Producto Bruto brasileño, el tamaño de su economía, es entre 3,5 y 4 veces más grande que el argentino . Y el PBI industrial, 4,3 veces mayor : esto da una idea de lo que aquí pretenden reequilibrar.

Algunos datos si se quiere micro, extraídos de un trabajo de la consultora abeceb.com, son parte de lo mismo: En un buen número de sectores industriales la producción brasileña es más de 10 veces la argentina. Entre otros: químicos; maquinaria para oficinas; componentes eléctricos; bebidas gaseosas, cerveza, jugos; motores; productos de caucho y juguetes.

En un grupo también importante, la diferencia a favor de Brasil está entre 5 y 10 veces . Allí entran: motocicletas, bicicletas; fabricación de calzado; autopartes, piezas y accesorios para automotores y motores; fabricación de autos; muebles y ropa de vestir. Y en otro, la brecha va de 2 a 5 veces . En este lote hay: maquinarias; receptores de radio y tevé; cocinas, calefones y artefactos eléctricos y carrocerías, remolques y semirremolques.

Algunos de estos bienes son considerados "sensibles" por las autoridades argentinas, como juguetes, calzado, muebles o ropa. Representan fuente de controversias recurrentes y son controlados a través de cupos de importación. La lista sacude, pero aún así resulta incompleta. Revela desarrollo productivo y a la vez inversión tecnológica. Brasil no es una potencia exportadora de bienes industriales: el punto está en la relación de fuerzas .

Y eso se nota, bien claro, en el balance comercial de productos industrializados: Brasil tiene un superávit anual con la Argentina de alrededor de US$ 3.000 millones. Precisamente, en una actividad que ocupa mucha mano de obra y mide, como pocas, el despliegue relativo alcanzado por uno y otro país. El acceso al crédito de largo plazo y el costo del financiamiento son otros factores que hacen una diferencia enorme . En Brasil, eso se llama BNDES.

Entre marzo de 2009 y el mismo mes de este año, el Banco de Desarrollo brasileño desembolsó préstamos a tasas de interés subsidiadas por el equivalente a US$ 78.000 millones . Un 45 % fueron para planes de inversión industriales: químicos, petroquímicos, en alimentos y bebidas y material de transporte, entre otros. Y un 35 % para proyectos de infraestructura.

Para acercar esos 78.000 millones, vale un ejemplo. Todas las reservas del Banco Central suman US$ 48.800 millones . Según se ve, parece imposible reequilibrar el desarrollo industrial, más cuando la brecha en vez de achicarse va en aumento . Y sería inútil intentar equiparar la balanza comercial con el arbitrio de trabar compras de bienes industriales brasileños: habría que traerlos de otros países, porque aquí no se fabrican.

Está demasiado claro que nada de todo esto se resuelve con conversaciones, aunque sean útiles.


 


Ministros de Argentina y Brasil avanzarán en ampliación del comercio

Buenos Aires 07 Jun ABN.- Los ministros de Economía y de Industria de Argentina, Amado Boudou y Débora Giorgi, se reunirán esta semana en Buenos Aires con sus pares de Brasil, Guido Mantega y Miguel Jorge (Desarrollo) para discutir medidas que amplien el comercio, informó el gobierno argentino.

"Nuestro objetivo es trabajar en medidas que nos permitan reequilibrar el desarrollo industrial de ambos países y equiparar la balanza comercial, que por ahora resulta desfavorable para Argentina", dijo Giorgi en un comunicado, reseñó la agencia AFP.

La reunión fue acordada durante el encuentro que mantuvieron en Rio de Janeiro, la presidenta argentina, Cristina Kirchner y su par de Brasil, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva el pasado 28 de mayo durante el Encuentro Mundial de Civilizaciones celebrado en Brasil.

En su visita a Rio, Kirchner remarcó que no habrá restricciones y sí una produndización de las relaciones comerciales, un aumento del intercambio con Brasil.

En 2009, el intercambio comercial entre Brasil y Argentina fue de 24 mil 066 millones de dólares, sensiblemente menor que en 2008 cuando se elevó a 30 mil 864 millones.

La agenda de la reunión ministerial abordará la profundización del sistema de pago en monedas locales, la integración de cadenas productivas, el financiamiento de las exportaciones con fondos del Banco Nacional de Desarrollo de Brasil (BNDES) y eliminación de las barreras de acceso al mercado brasileño.