Clipping Internacional, 20 de maio de 2010

Brazil May Pay Revenues Over 2010 Fiscal Target Into Sovereign Fund

MAY 19, 2010, 11:21 A.M. ET

BRASILIA (Dow Jones)--If Brazil hits its primary surplus target of 3.3% of gross domestic product in 2010, extra funds could be set aside in a type of sovereign fund, said Treasury Secretary Arno Augustin Wednesday.

Speaking after a congressional committee meeting, he said that the government is monitoring the fiscal situation but strong tax revenues and the decision to cut the federal budget by 10 billion Brazilian reals ($5.4 billion) pointed to a steady rise in the surplus throughout the year.

In the 12 months through March, Brazil posted a public sector primary surplus of BRL62.54 billion, or the equivalent of 1.94% of gross domestic product.

The government uses its operating surplus to help pay down public-sector debt, which in March stood at BRL1.37 trillion, or the equivalent of 42.4% of GDP.

The Brazilian government's version of a sovereign fund, originally created in 2008, serves as a fiscal stabilization mechanism and a source of financing for strategic investments abroad.

Augustin said the treasury is monitoring market volatility caused by the European fiscal crisis and Germany's latest measures to limit short selling but it presents no problems to the Brazilian government in terms of rolling over domestic or international debt.

2nd UPDATE:Brazil Finance Minister:BRIC To Lead World Growth In 2010

MAY 19, 2010, 9:09 A.M. ET

MADRID (Dow Jones)--Emerging economies will lead global growth in coming years, with Brazil, Russia, India and China, known as the BRIC countries, accounting for two-thirds of world growth this year, Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega said Wednesday.

Brazil's economy, according to conservative estimates by the finance ministry, is expected to expand 5.5% to 6% in 2010, Mantega said. He spoke at a conference on the Brazilian economy.

Brazil can become the world's fifth-largest economy over the coming 10 years, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said at the same conference.

"Brazil will transform itself into a great economic power", Lula said, adding that presidential elections in October won't destabilize the economy, Lula said.

"We never had such a quiet electoral process," he said as he called leading opposition candidate Jose Serra, a friend.

Europe, meanwhile, is weakened and lacks control of its financial system, while those "responsible for the crisis pretend not to be responsible", Lula said, adding that European countries have lost control of monetary policy, leaving decisions in the hands of the rich.

"How can it be that it took Germany so long to help Greece?", Lula said.

Europe will take longer than previously expected to recover from the economic downturn due to its current sovereign-debt crisis, Mantega said.

Growth in Brazil will hardly be affected by the crisis in Europe, as expansion in the Latin American country will be driven by domestic demand, he said.

Economic growth in Brazil is sustainable, and a recent rise in inflation was only due to heavy rainfall that destroyed crops and temporarily made some foodstuff products more expensive, Mantega said

"The forecast is for inflation to fall in coming months," he said. Brazil's 12-month IPCA consumer price inflation through April reached 5.26%, well above the country's official year-end inflation target of 4.5%

In a move to slow Brazil's rapidly expanding economy and curb accelerating inflation, the government last week announced it will cut 10 billion reals ($5.65 billion) from planned public-sector spending this year.

Planning Minister Paulo Bernardo at the same conference in Madrid said Wednesday that the government doesn't intend to "put the brakes" on the economy, but only to slow growth down to a more reasonable level that will allow it to expand by more than 5% also in coming years.

Mantega actually wanted spending cuts to reach BRL20 billion, Bernardo added.

 

Trichet's Pain Is Meirelles's Gain as Brazil Future Rates Sink

May 19, 2010, 11:21 PM EDT | By Ye Xie and Tal Barak Harif

May 20 (Bloomberg) -- The debt crisis confounding European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet is helping his Brazilian counterpart Henrique Meirelles tame inflation expectations in Latin America's biggest economy.

Yields on Brazil's interest rate-futures contracts due in January fell 23 basis points, or 0.23 percentage point, to 10.97 percent yesterday from a 15-month high on May 3. The yield dropped four straight days, the longest stretch since January, as commodities weakened and prospects that global growth will slow led traders to bet Meirelles needs fewer rate increases to curb inflation.

"The sharp decline in commodity prices for the first time makes people think that the external environment is going to slow the local economy down to a certain extent," said Guillermo Osses, who helps oversee $50 billion in emerging- market assets at Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., manager of the world's biggest bond fund. "People are starting to think that maybe we're not going to have that much tightening."

Traders have trimmed their year-end expectation for benchmark borrowing costs to about 12 percent from about 12.75 percent at the end of April, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Meirelles, 64, lifted the overnight rate 75 basis points last month to 9.5 percent, the first increase since 2008, to cool an economy that analysts forecast will grow at its fastest pace in two decades this year.

Commodities Rout

Commodities, which make up 41 percent of Brazilian exports, plunged 11 percent since mid-April to a seven-month low as the $1 trillion rescue package arranged by European policy makers failed to reverse a jump in borrowing costs for Greece, Spain and Portugal, according to the UBS Bloomberg CMCI raw materials index. Trichet, 67, is leading an effort by central banks in the region to buy the governments' bonds.

Europe is Brazil's largest export market, buying more than 20 percent of its overseas sales, according to government data. About 55 percent of foreign direct investment in Brazil in the past three years came from Europe, according to Barclays Plc.

"The crisis could be more wide-spread and longer-lasting, the global growth could be softer, and there's repercussions for domestic activity as well," said Marcelo Salomon, an economist with Barclays in Sao Paulo. "There's stress on the rate market as people reassess the total amount of tightening."

Salomon forecasts the central bank will raise the overnight rate to 11.75 percent by August and leave it at that level through year-end.

Credit-Default Swaps

The extra yield investors demand to hold Brazilian dollar bonds instead of U.S. Treasuries widened five basis points to 230. The gap reached a three-month high of 248 on May 6 on concern Greece's debt crisis would deepen.

The cost of credit-default swaps to protect against a default on Brazilian debt for five years rose two basis points to 142 yesterday, according to data compiled by CMA DataVision. Credit-default swaps pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a government or company fail to adhere to its debt agreements.

Brazil's real fell 0.3 percent against the dollar, marking its fifth straight day of declines and the longest losing streak since January. The real has declined 4.6 percent this year after soaring 33 percent in 2009.

Europe's debt turmoil will only have a "marginal" effect on Brazil and policy makers will have to raise the benchmark overnight rate as much as 350 basis points to "re-anchor" inflation expectations, said Paulo Vieira da Cunha, a former central banker director who is now a partner at Tandem Global Partners LLC in New York.

Spending Cuts

Banco Central do Brasil said the European crisis will be taken into account in future policy decisions, according to the minutes of its April 27-28 meeting published May 6.

Central bankers "made it very clear that any worsening of the fiscal situation in the euro zone could affect the tightening," said Marcelo Saddi Castro, chief investment officer at SulAmerica Investimentos, who manages 15 billion reais ($8.2 billion) in Sao Paulo.

A government plan unveiled last week to cut spending by 10 billion reais is also helping drive down yields on rate futures, Salomon said. Finance Minister Guido Mantega said May 13 that the spending cuts are "a strong and quick tool" to curb growth and inflation.

Analysts predict the economy will expand 6.3 percent this year, the fastest pace since 1986, according to a central bank survey published this week. Itau Unibanco Holding SA, Brazil's biggest bank by market value, may raise its growth estimate for to as much as 8.5 percent from 7.5 percent, economist Guilherme da Nobrega said yesterday in an interview in New York.

'Deflationary Forces'

Analysts in the survey held their 2011 inflation forecast at 4.8 percent for a fifth straight week while raising their 2010 prediction to 5.54 percent from 5.5 percent. The central bank targets an annual rate of 4.5 percent.

"Inflation is coming to the forefront much faster than expected, but the debt crisis unleashes deflationary forces," said Michael Roche, an emerging-market strategist at MF Global Holdings Ltd., a New York-based broker. "The market is building a premium for a softer tightening environment."

 

Zell's Equity International Is Raising $500 Million for Brazil Real Estate

By Alexander Cuadros - May 19, 2010

Billionaire investor Sam Zell's Equity International is seeking to raise about $500 million to step up investment in Brazilian real estate, betting interest rate increases will fail to stem demand as the economy grows at the fastest pace in two decades.

The firm will invest as much as two-thirds of the money in Brazilian companies tied to the residential and commercial property industries and the rest in countries outside the U.S., Chief Executive Officer Gary Garrabrant said. The new funds will bring the Chicago-based company's total invested capital to about $2 billion.

"Our enthusiasm for Brazil could not be higher," Garrabrant, who co-founded Equity International with Zell in 1999, said in a May 18 interview in Sao Paulo. "You've got this local demand that's unparalleled."

Rising incomes among Brazil's burgeoning middle class will ensure that a cycle of rate increases won't suppress housing demand, Garrabrant, 53, said. The economy will grow 6.3 percent this year, according to a central bank survey published this week. Brazilians' average monthly income has risen close to 40 percent in the past five years to about 1,400 reais, according to the census bureau.

Zell is expanding in Brazil after Equity International sold part of its stake in Gafisa SA, the country's second-largest homebuilder by revenue, last week. The BM&FBovespa Real Estate index has tumbled 23 percent this year as policy makers lifted the benchmark interest rate in April for the first time since 2008.

Gafisa Stake

Selling Gafisa shares doesn't signal that Equity International is bearish on Brazilian real estate, Garrabrant said. The firm sold the equivalent of about 18 million Gafisa common shares and now holds 30.1 million, or 7.2 percent of the total, according to a May 13 statement from Gafisa.

Equity International bought a 32 percent stake in the builder for $50 million in 2005 and Garrabrant remains the Sao Paulo-based company's chairman.

"This is, for 10 years, what we do: we invest in businesses," he said. "And then at appropriate points in time we'll monetize our position. It doesn't mean we have any less enthusiasm for Gafisa."

Brazilian builders are now inexpensive compared with "overvalued" U.S. real-estate companies, Garrabrant said. The BM&FBovespa Real Estate gauge trades at nine times earnings, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Higher Rates

"There are no constraints to growth for the homebuilding sector," he said. "Fundamentals are way ahead of share prices. It's natural that interest rates will rise in the short term."

The Selic rate was increased to 9.5 percent on April 28 and policy makers may push it to 10.25 percent next month, according to the median estimate in a central bank survey.

Garrabrant said Brazil's real estate industry will benefit from economic and political changes. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has helped lift 19 million people out of poverty and more than doubled the monthly minimum wage to 510 reais since taking office in 2003. The government's "My House My Life" program is funding the construction of 2 million homes for low- income families by 2014.

The nation's middle class last year increased to 53 percent of the population of 200 million from 42 percent in 2002, Finance Minister Guido Mantega said last month.

At least 1.5 million new households are formed in Brazil each year while builders produce about half that number of housing units, Garrabrant said.

Economic Expansion

Equity International may invest in Colombia for the first time with its new $500 million fund, the firm's fifth, Garrabrant said. President Alvaro Uribe has boosted investor confidence, he said, by cutting the murder and kidnapping rates since taking office in 2002.

Colombia has "great demand" for affordable and middle- income housing, he said.

The firm is also looking at opportunities in China and "frontier markets" including Vietnam, Indonesia and Morocco. Equity International sold its investments in Ukraine and Venezuela because of political risk, Garrabrant said. In 2008, it sold its holding in Desarrolladora Homex SAB, now Mexico's largest homebuilder.

Mortgage Market

Garrabrant, who began his career in the real estate division at First Chicago Bank, and Zell created their company to invest in real estate businesses outside the U.S. Zell three years ago sold his Equity Office Properties Trust for $39 billion just as commercial property prices were peaking. He also orchestrated a buyout of media company Tribune Co.

Beyond Gafisa, Equity International also holds a stake in BR Malls Participacoes SA, Brazil's biggest owner of shopping malls, and bought an 8.5 percent stake last year in Brazilian Finance & Real Estate Participacoes SA to develop the country's mortgage market.

"There are less than 400,000 mortgages in Brazil -- I think there are 400,000 mortgages on the Upper East Side of Manhattan," Garrabrant said. "Will the Brazilians catch up? No question."

 

Brazil unlikely to tweak primary target-official

BRASILIA, May 19 (Reuters) - Brazil's government is unlikely to alter the primary budget surplus target for the year, even though the result could be above 3.3 percent of gross domestic product, Treasury Secretary Arno Augustin said on Wednesday.

The target for a primary budget surplus of 18 billion reais ($10 billion) for the federal government in the first four months of the year would easily be achieved, he added.

"The target was achieved with room to spare," Augustin told reporters in Brasilia.

Last week, Finance Minister Guido Mantega told Reuters that Brazil's consolidated primary budget figures would be among the best for the month of April, putting the government back on track to easily meet its 3.3 percent target for the year.

Brazil's government last week agreed to make additional cuts to the 2010 budget in order to help cool demand in an economy many fear could be in risk of overheating.

Augustin also said he was comfortable with Brazil's ability to finance its debt despite the euro zone crisis that has shaken financial markets and increased aversion to riskier emerging market assets in recent weeks.

Investor are worried that fiscal austerity measures dictated by a $1 trillion rescue plan for the euro zone will stifle a still sluggish rebound in the global economy.

"There is no way to have a definitive prognosis on the crisis, but I think Brazil will certainly suffer less than in the last crisis," Augustin told reporters in Brasilia.

Brazil's economy suffered a brief recession as a result of to the global financial crisis in 2008/2009 but was among the first countries to bounce back and is now poised for more than 6 percent growth in 2010.

Augustin still considered markets to be demanding too high a yield for Brazilian debt, even though the financial turmoil abroad is increasing aversion to riskier emerging market assets.

"The Brazilian market has a tendency to ask for yields that we do not agree with," he added.

($1=1.853 reais)

 

Brasil espera crecer 6 pct en 2010, liderará recuperación global

19/5/2010 - 12:22

MADRID (Reuters) - Brasil ha recuperado sus tasas de crecimiento económico previas a la crisis y espera para este año una expansión del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) cercano al 6 por ciento, dijo el miércoles el ministro de Hacienda del país sudamericano, Guido Mantega.

"Tenemos que ser prudentes y estimamos para este año un crecimiento del orden del 5,5 al 6 por ciento", afirmó Mantega en un foro de inversionistas en Madrid, aunque añadió que fuera de su cartera circulan previsiones más optimistas que apuntan a una expansión de entre el 6,5 y el 7 por ciento.

El ministro dijo que Brasil junto con China, India y Rusia -el llamado grupo de grandes países emergentes BRIC- liderarán la recuperación global este año.

"Los países emergentes aportarán dos terceras partes del crecimiento mundial en el 2010", dijo Mantega.

El ministro aprovechó su intervención para presentar al mundo inversor las cuentas saneadas de la principal economía de Latinoamérica.

"Brasil crece, pero no a lo loco, sino con la inflación controlada y con la deuda controlada", dijo Mantega.

En mayo, Brasil ha registrado un nivel récord de divisas de 250.000 millones de dólares, superando con creces los pasivos externos del país y despejando el camino para reducir la deuda pública neta al 40 por ciento del PIB, dijo el ministro.

De hecho, Brasil, tradicional receptor de fondos del FMI, ahora aporta fondos al organismo multilateral.

Y mientras la mayoría de los países industrializados lucha con déficits fiscales muy superiores al 3 por ciento del PIB, el saldo presupuestario negativo de Brasil se situará probablemente a finales de este año en el 1,5 por ciento del PIB, "el déficit más bajo de todo el G-20", dijo.

Mantega dijo que el saneamiento de las cuentas va acompañado este año de un fuerte crecimiento del empleo -950.000 nuevos puestos de trabajo en el primer cuatrimestre- lo que ha reducido la tasa de desocupación al 6 por ciento, un nivel considerado casi como de pleno empleo en Brasil.

Según el ministro, el relativo bajo endeudamiento de los hogares, la pujante demanda de nuevas casas y las inversiones previstas en grandes obras de infraestructura -450.000 millones de dólares entre el 2011 y 2014- sentarán las bases para que la economía brasileña alcance en los próximos años a los países industrializados.

En el 2020, Brasil podría superar a Italia, según Goldman Sachs y, en el 2025, será la quinta o cuarta economía del mundo, dijo Mantega.

Estas perspectivas de crecimiento han atraído a los inversores extranjeros y han multiplicado por 10 el volumen de operaciones de la bolsa de Brasil en la última dédcada.

"Hoy la bolsa de Brasil es la principal plaza bursátil en Latinoamérica", aseguró Mantega.

De hecho, empresas brasileñas como Petrobras, Itau Unibanco o Vale S.A. se han convertido en los últimos años en campeones globales y ahora alcanzan o superan la capitalización de empresas homólogas como Banco Paribas, Royal Dutch Shell o Río Tinto.

(Información de Robert Hetz; Editado por Jose Elías Rodríguez)

 

Brazil's economy up nearly 10% in Q1

BRASILIA, May 19 (Xinhua) -- The Brazilian economy grew by 9.84 percent in the first quarter compared to the same period last year, official data showed Wednesday.

According to the Central Bank's Index of Economic Activity (IBC-Br), the economy was up 2.38 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2009.

The IBC-Br, which is being presented for the first time, is a tool to anticipate the evolution of economic activity and to help the Central Bank in its decisions concerning the basic interest rate Selic.

At its last meeting, the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee had decided unanimously to increase the Selic rate by 0.75 percent, reaching 9.5 percent annually; and an amendment was expected next month to face inflationary pressures due to economic overheating.

Meanwhile, Finance Minister Guido Mantega said Wednesday that the country would generate two million jobs in 2010.

Brazil has created almost one million jobs in the first four months of 2010, close to the amount of jobs in the entire year 2009, data showed.

The Brazilian National Industry Confederation (CNI) on Monday had forecast a 6-percent gross domestic product growth this year, as the country's labor market was showing signs of improvement.

 

Russia expects Iran to hand over uranium swap proposals: FM

MOSCOW, May 20 (Xinhua) -- Iran was expected to send uranium fuel exchange proposals to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) soon, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Thursday.

"Italy and we want to see Iran clearly honor its commitments and send an official written appeal to the IAEA as soon as possible, so that a fuel exchange procedure may be agreed upon," Lavrov said at a press conference held in Rome.

Lavrov also hoped consensus could be reached on the resolution of the U.N. Security Council imposing sanctions on Iran, the Interfax news agency reported.

"We will treat the positions of other Security Council members most respectfully. Such issues should be resolved through a consensus," he said.

"We have a chance after the president of Brazil and prime minister of Turkey reached an agreement with Iran on how to resolve the problem of supplying fuel for the Tehran nuclear reactor," he said.

Iran, Brazil, and Turkey reached agreement on the exchange of low-enriched uranium to fuel Iran's scientific research reactor on Tuesday.

Russia's top diplomat also said the U.N. Security Council discussions should not hamper talks with Iran on fuel exchange.

The Iran Six (France, Britain, Germany, the United States, Russia and China) began discussing on April 19 the text of a draft resolution to impose sanctions on Iran, which the United States and other Western countries suspect of developing nuclear weapons under the guise of a civilian nuclear energy program.

On the same day, Sergei Kiriyenko, head of Russian state nuclear energy corporation Rosatom, said the nuclear power plant in the Iranian city of Bushehr would be put into operation by August, regardless of any possible sanctions on Iran.

"A resolution on Iran that is being drawn up will not affect these plans. We expect the nuclear power plant will be launched by August, if everything goes according to plans," Kiriyenko told a Moscow press conference.

Iran handed over the Bushehr project, started by German firm Siemens in the 1970s, to Russia in 1995. The launch of Bushehr has been postponed repeatedly in recent years. 

 

Deal on Iran sanctions near

By Ai Yang and Wu Jiao (China Daily)| Updated: 2010-05-19 08:12

BEIJING / Washington - United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on Tuesday that the US, Russia and China have reached agreement on a draft resolution on sanctions on Iran. The agreement follows quickly on the heels of an Iranian deal to swap its controversial enriched uranium with Turkey.

"We have reached agreement on a strong draft with the cooperation of Russia and China," Clinton said of talks among the five permanent Security Council members - Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States - as well as Germany.

The draft would be circulated at the UN Security Council later in the day. The US and other Western countries have been accusing Iran of trying to develop nuclear weapons, a charge always denied by Iran.

In a move to defuse some of the pressure surrounding its nuclear program, Iran, Turkey and Brazil proposed on Monday to send 1,200 kg of its 3.5 percent enriched uranium to Ankara in exchange for 120 kg of 20 percent uranium, for use in a reactor that makes isotopes for treating cancer patients, Iran's Press TV reported.

Brazil and Turkey also hailed the deal, describing it as a victory and calling for flexibility from the West.

"China attaches importance to and welcomes the trio's agreement, and hopes that it will help solve the Iranian nuclear issue through dialogue and negotiations," Foreign Ministry spokesman Ma Zhaoxu said on Tuesday, adding China considers dialogue and negotiations the best solution.

French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner initially said he welcomed the three-way agreement, but his office later said it "does nothing to settle the problem posed by the Iranian nuclear program", while Britain's new Foreign Secretary William Hague said the deal could be an Iranian delaying tactic, the Guardian reported.

"Strategically, the US is now facing more pressure and opposing voices. The talks for sanctions are not likely to halt," said Zhang Xiaodong, deputy head of the Chinese Association for Middle East Studies.

"Washington will likely press Teheran for more compromises next, such as demanding more transparency and explanation for its nuclear facilities," said Zhang, adding that it is up to Teheran and Washington to deliver solutions, and the pressure is being taken off Beijing.

Iran, sanctioned three times in the past by the UN, says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.

In the new statement, Teheran said it had the right to produce enriched uranium to 20 percent, which worries the West because it is closer to weapon-grade fuel.

The West estimates Iran has 2,100 kg of enriched uranium, and even after a transfer of 1,200 kg as stated in the deal there would still be 900 kg left, said Li Guofu, a researcher with China Institute of International Studies.

In the meantime, Turkey said it would withdraw from the fuel swap deal if the West imposes a new round of sanctions on Iran, the Doha-based al-Jazeera news channel reported on Tuesday.

 

Constructive deal

(China Daily)| Updated: 2010-05-19 07:53

Iran's nuclear fuel swap deal with Brazil and Turkey could be a positive step forward in resolving the international impasse over its nuclear program.

Even as the United States is stepping up efforts toward UN-mandated fresh sanctions against Iran, it is praiseworthy that members of the international community have stuck to diplomatic means to defuse the tension.

Monday's development is an unambiguous signal of the international community's never-say-die approach.

As per the deal, Iran will ship most of its low enriched uranium to Turkey in exchange for the 20-percent enriched uranium needed for its research reactor in Teheran.

As far as Iran is concerned, this gesture will be seen as a softening of its tough stance that any swap should take place on its own soil and only after it is given fuel rods in return.

Given that the Islamic nation has faced mounting pressure from the US, Teheran has of late sent positive signals to delay the sanctions' endeavor.

Last month, it indicated a willingness to discuss the nuclear fuel swap deal again. In a further goodwill gesture aimed at the West, Teheran last weekend released a French woman who had been held on spying charges - an incident that had worsened relations between Iran and France ever since July last year.

These positive developments, along with the latest fuel swap deal, will bolster international efforts to seek a peaceful resolution of the issue.

Although the US insisted that the deal would not stymie its move regarding sanctions, its moral compass could take a beating now that Teheran has made several compromises.

China has always insisted that negotiation and dialogue hold the key to breaking the current international stalemate over Iran's nuclear program.

There seems to be more hope now that the situation is evolving in that direction.

 

Iran, the Deal and the Council

Published: May 18, 2010

Every time it looks as if the big powers have finally run out of patience with Iran's nuclear misdeeds, Tehran's leaders suddenly decide they're in the mood to compromise. And every time the big powers let up on the pressure, Tehran's compromises turn to smoke.

It was no surprise on Monday when Iran announced it was ready to accept a deal to ship some of its nuclear fuel out of the country — similar to the deal it accepted and then rejected last year. So it is welcome news that the United States, Europe, Russia and China will press ahead with new United Nations Security Council sanctions.

The deal to exchange enriched uranium — which could, with more enrichment, be used in a weapon — for fuel rods is worth pursuing. We also are sure that there is no chance of reining in Iran's nuclear ambitions without sustained unified pressure by the major powers.

The resolution, circulated late on Tuesday, takes aim at Iran's financial institutions, including those supporting the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, which runs much of the nuclear program. It would also require countries to inspect ships or aircraft into or out of Iran if there are suspicions they are carrying banned materials.

Like the three resolutions that preceded it, it is probably not tough enough to change minds in Tehran. But the fact that Russia and China — Iran's longtime enablers — have signed on is likely to make some players in Iran's embattled government nervous. (We know we can't wait to hear what changed Beijing's mind.)

Several European governments have signaled that they are ready to impose tougher bilateral sanctions after the Security Council moves, and that might unsettle Iran's shaky political and economic system even more.

Since 2006, Tehran has defied repeated demands from the Security Council to curb its nuclear program. It continues to churn out more nuclear fuel, block international inspectors from visiting suspect nuclear sites and refuses to answer questions about possible research into weapons designs.

The 11th-hour agreement announced this week with the leaders of Brazil and Turkey was much like one reached with the big powers last fall. Iran would transfer about 2,640 pounds of its low-enriched uranium to Turkey within one month and receive — within one year — fuel rods for use in a medical research reactor.

There are big differences, however. In October, 2,640 pounds represented nearly 80 percent of Iran's stock of enriched uranium. Now it is only about half of its supply.

The original deal was intended to measurably delay Iran's progress toward a nuclear weapon while opening the door to serious negotiations. The current deal leaves Iran with too much fuel, puts no brakes on enrichment at a higher rate, lets Tehran take back the fuel stored in Turkey when it wants and makes no commitment to talks.

Brazil and Turkey — both currently hold seats on the Security Council — are eager to play larger international roles. And they are eager to avoid a conflict with Iran. We respect those desires. But like pretty much everyone else, they got played by Tehran.

American officials have not rejected the deal completely. They say that Iran will have to do more to slow its nuclear progress and demonstrate its interest in negotiating, rather than just manipulating the international community.

Brazil and Turkey should join the other major players and vote for the Security Council resolution. Even before that, they should go back to Tehran and press the mullahs to make a credible compromise and begin serious negotiations.

 

Sanctions Effort May Open Door to Press Iran Central Bank

20/05/2010 | By NEIL MacFARQUHAR and DAVID E. SANGER

UNITED NATIONS — Buried in the sanctions resolution now being debated in the United Nations Security Council lies the possibility of a new effort to pressure Iran over its nuclear program: a call for countries to "exercise vigilance" in dealing with Iran's central bank.

American and European officials said Wednesday that the reference, passing though it is, could give them a legal basis in the future for choking off finanical transactions between Iran and banking centers in Europe and elsewhere. Previous sanctions have taken aim at specific banks suspected of financing proscribed nuclear activity, but never anything as pivotal as dealings with the central bank itself.

What is notably absent from the draft resolution, however, is any binding restriction on transactions with Iran's central bank. Among the many compromises that the United States accepted to get China and Russia to back new sanctions against Iran was an agreement to limitany reference to the bank — or Iran's entire energy sector, for that matter — to the introductory paragraphs rather than the sanctions themselves, according toAmerican officials and other diplomats, yielding a weaker resolution than the United States would have liked.

The haggling over the central bank illustrates both the opportunities and the frustrations that American and European officials see in the resolution. One the one hand, it provides an opportunity to expand the range of financial activity that the West can try to impede. On the other, it provides a loophole for any nation that wants to continue relations with Iran, allowing it to argue that a cut off is not mandatory.

The standoff between Washington and Beijing over what economic measures to include in the final resolution consumed the last 10 days of the negotiations, diplomats said. China expressed concern that if you singled out the central bank for sanctions it would paralyze the entire Iranian economy, they said.

Even so, both Obama administration officials and diplomats underscored the mention of the central bank as an important tool to try to limit any trade with Iran that contributes to nuclear proliferation.

Security Council diplomats expressed confidence that they had at least 10 votes on the 15-member council, and maybe more depending on how negotiations unroll. Turkey and Brazil, both current members, have said they will not engage in talks on the draft, and Lebanon is also expected to sit out the vote. The position of other members, especially Nigeria and Uganda, remain unclear since they are awaiting instructions from their capitals, diplomats said.

Iran reacted with outrage on Wednesday to the proposed new sanctions, particularly since the agreement was announced just a day after the Islamic republic had been trumpeting a compromise agreement on nuclear enrichment for an experimental reactor in Tehran that had been worked out with Brazil and Turkey.

Iran's foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, said "there was no chance that the resolution would be approved," given that Tehran had agreed to ship a chunk of its enriched uranium to Turkey, the Fars news agency reported. He described the countries favoring the draft as a minority, Fars said.

Mojtaba Samareh-Hashemi, an adviser to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, dismissed the draft as having "no legitimacy," the news agency reported. All of the new sanctions come under the umbrella of limiting activity linked to nuclear proliferation, and Iran maintains its program is strictly peaceful but it is suspected of trying to develop a nuclear bomb.

The carefully worded compromise emerged after the United States said it would not support the passage of any resolution that did not at least mention the central bank and Iran's lucrative energy sector, while the Chinese were equally adamant that no economic targets be singled out.

In the end, both the energy sector and the central bank were mentioned with somewhat tortured wording in the preamble, with the draft noting the "potential connection between Iran's revenues derived from its energy sector" and possible financing for its nuclear program.

That is enough to pursue companies dealing with either the banks or the energy sector, American officials said. Whenever the negotiations stalled, Ambassador Susan E. Rice, the American envoy, warned the Chinese that any measures passed by Congress in the absence of a United Nations resolution would likely have much greater consequences for Chinese banks and its trade relations with the United States, one United Nations diplomat said.

Russia generally supported the Chinese position, although Moscow focused its attention on the arms embargo. The United States and its European allies in the talks —Britain, France and Germany — had proposed a total arms embargo, which Russia rejected.

The final compromise required a telephone call from President Obama to President Dmitry Medvedev to break the deadlock, one United Nations diplomat said. Russia then accepted the wording in the resolution, which bans the sale of all heavy combat equipment to Iran, namely battle tanks, armored combat vehicles, large caliber artillery systems, combat aircraft, attack helicopters, missiles or missile systems.

That would seem to include the S-300 surface-to-air missiles that Russia sold to the Islamic Republic in 2005 but has repeatedly delayed delivering. Diplomats were divided on whether the sanctions actually covered the deal, but one noted that it gave Russia a convenient excuse to further delay — its hands were tied by the Security Council.

The White Hosue said Wednesday that President Obama called Prime Minister Erdogan of Turkey, in what appeared to be an effort to mollify the Turks after they negotiated a deal with Iran to place about half of the country's uranium stockpile on Turkish territory for a yar, while they awaited fuel for a research reactor used to produce medical isotopes.

Turkish officials say that together with Brazil, they believed they were coaxing Iran back to the terms of a confidence-building agreement with Iran that fell apart last year. But White House officials were disparaging of the effort, noting that Iran would continue to enrich uranium at high levels, and made no commitment to negotiate over the key demands made by the Security Council over the past four years -- including answering all questions put to Tehran by international nuclear inspectors.Mr. Obama apparently reinforced that point. The Whtie Hosue said that he "stressed the international community's continuing and fundamental concerns about Iran's overall nuclear program as well as Iran's failure to live up to its international obligations." Mr. Obama said he would continue to negotiate over the new round of sanctions against Iran -- a step that clearly surprised and miffed the Turks and the Brazilians, who thought their agreement would short-circuit that effort, at least for now.

Previous Iran resolutions have taken up to six weeks between the time they were agreed to by the permanent members and then passed by the full council. Among the hardest remaining issues is the list of Iranian companies and individuals to subject to an asset freeze and travel ban.

A Western list that runs to some 10 pages has been circulating for months, one diplomat noted. But many of the listings refer to multiple names of a single organization, switching names being a favorite tactic in avoiding sanctions.

The Americans seek passage as fast as possible and the European Union hopes the new resolution will be in place before a summit of their leaders in mid-June, which would allow them to discuss broader European sanctions against Iran.

 

Opinion: A diplomatic game of chicken with Iran

20/05/2010 | By David Ignatius

Let's be generous and call the frantic diplomatic maneuvers that have been taking place this week over Iran's nuclear program a "negotiation," Tehran-style.

Here's how the scorecard looks: First the Iranians said yes in October to a deal to enrich uranium outside their borders; then they said no; then, on Monday, they said yes to a version of the accord brokered by Turkey and Brazil.

Tehran was surely hoping that by accepting the deal, it would head off a new sanctions resolution being drafted by the U.N. Security Council. The would-be mediators, Turkey and Brazil, were hoping to buff their credentials as leaders of a new "nonaligned movement."

But the last-minute dealmakers appear to have miscalculated: On Tuesday, the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, including Russia and China, went ahead and endorsed a draft resolution condemning Iran's nuclear program, ignoring Tehran's machinations the day before.

The new U.N. resolution won't stop Iran's nuclear program any more than the previous three did. The draft discusses energy sanctions and an arms embargo, but it doesn't specify enforcement mechanisms. The United States and its allies will top up the U.N. sanctions with some tougher measures of their own, but those won't be enough to halt Tehran either.

What's important about the unified U.N. stand is that it will force Iran back to the bargaining table if it wants to avoid growing diplomatic isolation from the world's superpowers. Yes, Tehran can claim that it has support from two of the world's rising nations, Turkey and Brazil, which it will tout as allies against the great satans of the Security Council. But realistically, the Iranians know that having lost Russia and China on sanctions, they are on shaky ground.

The Obama administration has been calculating that unity among the "P-5" (diplo-speak for the five permanent Security Council members) is more important than the details of the sanctions resolution, and this week's events showed that this strategy was right. The draft resolution was the payoff for President Obama's eight discussions about Iran with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev over the past year, and for the administration's nascent partnership with the world's true rising power, China.

What's next in this diplomatic game of chicken? The answer, says a senior administration official, is that Iran must address two key issues that were part of the enrichment deal floated in October in Geneva. It called for Iran to turn over 2,640 pounds of low-enriched uranium and receive from abroad, in exchange, 260 pounds of uranium that has been enriched to 20 percent, for use in the Tehran Research Reactor for medical isotopes. The new wrinkle in the Turkish-Brazilian version announced Monday was that the Iranian fuel would be shipped to Turkey rather than Russia.

To make the deal fly, said the senior U.S. official, Iran must first meet with the P-5 and Germany for detailed discussions, as specified in the original Geneva proposal. And second, Tehran must agree to forgo its own enrichment to 20 percent. Iran's assertion that it had a unilateral right to continue enrichment to the 20 percent level, regardless of the exchange of fuel, cemented Russian and Chinese support for sanctions, said the senior official.

The problem with this protracted process of bargaining is that the clock is ticking, with Iran moving toward nuclear-weapons capability even as it haggles on the diplomatic front. As Iran plays the game, "yes" and "no" are never final; negotiators walk away from the table only to return; face-saving compromises are floated, rejected and then re-floated. It's likely that this enervating bargaining will end when Iran announces -- surprise! -- that it has all the elements for a nuclear weapon and is now a de facto nuclear state.

The chances of avoiding this bad outcome are fractionally better today than they were a week ago, for one reason: When it came to the crunch this time, Russia and China refused to be enablers for Tehran. By endorsing U.N. sanctions, they stood with the nations that want to prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons.

After I visited Iran in 2006, I wrote that you could understand Iranian negotiating style by taking a drive in Tehran: At every intersection, drivers push for maximum advantage, giving ground only at the last moment to avoid a crash. There's still a big risk of a crackup here, but it's mildly encouraging that the U.N. Security Council will send another squad of police, even unarmed ones, to the dangerous intersection.

 

Iran: blind man's bluff
There is no sign, as yet, that Iran intends industrial production of medium-enriched uranium

The draft sanctions resolution on Iran agreed last night by the five permanent members of the UN security council – and that includes its two most important sceptics, Russia and China – can only be read one way: the deal that Iran announced on Monday to swap about half of its nuclear fuel for enrichment in Turkey would not be enough to deflect a new set of punitive sanctions. The deal breaker, in Russia's and China's eyes, was Iran's insistence that it would carry on producing 20%-enriched uranium, ostensibly to create fuel for its medical research reactor. As this was the point of the fuel swap in the first place, it undermined Iran's argument that the enrichment was for civilian purposes only. If Iran continued its own enrichment programme, there would be no non-proliferation advantage to exporting the process.

The draft resolution can also be interpreted as a diplomatic slap-down by the major powers to the negotiating efforts of other countries. But in this new multipolar world, Barack Obama can ill afford to do this. Turkey is emerging as a major diplomatic power in the Middle East; Turkey and Brazil, the other broker of the fuel swap, are both non-permanent members of the security council and signatories of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. Japan, too, shares a commitment to find a diplomatic solution to the nuclear standoff with Iran. Together these nations have assumed the role of honest broker abandoned by Britain, France and Germany.

So the draft resolution is unlikely to be the end of the matter. Politically, Iran's offer may not have been enough to split the consensus that the US fashioned in the security council. But technically, the deal agreed on Monday is more or less identical to one Iran rejected in October, according to initial assessments of experts in the Federation of American Scientists. Much is made of the fact that when the offer was originally framed, 1,200 kilograms of low-enriched uranium represented the majority of the feedstock Iran had. Today, it represents less than half. In other words, Iran has enough feedstock to make a bomb, even if the fuel swap with Turkey goes ahead.

But if you look at the process from a five-year perspective, it makes little difference. Iran's ability to make a bomb depends on its centrifuges, not only on the amount of feedstock it has. And Iran's insistence that it will continue enriching to 20% can also be viewed as a sop to national pride. There is no sign, as yet, that Iran intends industrial production of medium-enriched uranium. This is a game of blind man's bluff, but the Turkish deal still represents the closest we have come so far to the start of a resolution to this crisis.

 

Brazil's Take on Iran and NPT

May 19, 2010

The successful Brazilian-Turkish effort to get Iran to agree to a deal to send about half of its low-enriched uranium abroad was quickly upstaged by the announcement of a draft resolution for Iran sanctions that had Russia and China's blessing. Brazil wanted to project "political capacity" in the deal it helped craft, says Brazilian international relations expert Antonio Ramalho, who adds that "the very fact that the Iranians have agreed to sign an agreement has already diminished Iran's maneuverability." Ramalho says that Brazil, a late (1998) signatory to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, debated about whether to sign the NPT but did so to gain access to peaceful nuclear technology.

Why did Brazil take such an active role in working out this nuclear agreement with Iran?

There was one important motivation, which is to project Brazil's political capacity in the world. The Brazilian government has a perception that there have been rearrangements in the international system politically, diplomatically, and economically. Brazil perceives that this allows some room for maneuvering to new powers such as China, India, South Africa, and Brazil. Brazil believes it can provide the international community with diplomatic expertise on the one hand, and help solve conflict through negotiations.

Brazil believes it can play an important role, as a representative of emerging countries, in delivering some solutions that do not depend on the use of force or on the threat of the use of force.

I don't necessarily say that I accept this as "truth," but the Brazilian government has this conviction. Brazil has another conviction, which is that international security cannot be provided without the promotion of an international order that is more equitable than exists today.

What was it in the case of Iran that led the Brazilian government to be so active?

It was, again, the perception of a diplomatic void on the one hand, and the perception of mounting tension over the imposition of new Security Council sanctions. The Brazilian government believes that new and tougher sanctions on Iran would not work. It would only contribute to strengthening Iran's position in the region and strengthening the hardliners within Iranian society and within the Iranian government. They would be able to say that the economic problems they face were due to the sanctions imposed by the international community.

If we impose further sanctions, that will only increase the secrecy in Iran and increase the military orientation of this program.

Brazil is now a member of the Security Council, and it's been involved in these discussions in New York on sanctions. Will the agreement worked out with Turkey and Iran result in tensions between Brazil and the United States?

I don't think so. Turkey is also a member of the Security Council. The perception of the Brazilian government was that there was no longer a possibility of a peaceful way out of this situation involving just the permanent Security Council members and Iran. Brazil believed it was necessary to find an alternative and a creative solution, to take the same agreement that Western countries had discussed with Iran last October, but to change the actors. There is more trust between the Iranian government with both the Turkish and the Brazilian governments, and so the agreement is transformed even though the substance of the agreement has not been changed substantially.

As you know, Brazil would like a permanent seat in the Security Council. There is a common refrain from experts abroad to ask what Brazil has to offer the international community. Brazil does not have nuclear weapons; it does not have a huge armed force. The answer is: What Brazil has to offer is political expertise. Because if you remember well, [Carl von] Clausewitz and all the great strategic thinkers are convinced that it's better to win a battle without having to fight it. So what Brazil offers is not the possibility of using military power or imposing its will, but the possibility of engaging the opponents and turning the Security Council into a more political organization than it is nowadays.

What is Brazil's attitude toward the NPT, which is now having a review conference at the UN? At one time in Brazil's history when the military ran the government, there were apparently secret efforts to develop some kind of nuclear weapon capacity.

What exists is the diplomatic and, again, politically principled position that the NPT is a discretionary treaty. It establishes a difference between countries that are supposedly responsible and can have this nuclear weapons technology, vis-à-vis those who are not considered responsible and would endanger international security if they had the nuclear capacity. Brazil signed the Treaty of Tlatelolco in 1994, which established a nuclear-free zone in Latin America and the Caribbean. We have a unique relationship with Argentina, in fact, which permits experts from Argentina to enter into all nuclear installations in Brazil. Brazil has inserted into its own constitution that its nuclear program is only for peaceful purposes. Last but not least, there is a deep involvement of civilians in the military program that is conducted within the Brazilian Navy. But, as far as I know, Brazil is the sole country in the world that allows the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to make inspections within its own military facilities.

Was Brazil a latecomer to the NPT treaty?

In 1998, when Brazil signed the NPT treaty, there were arguments for and against. The argument against adhering to the NPT was that Brazil already made its program transparent, but at the same point, it had this principled position which is the one followed by India. Although we know that India had a military program, the Indian government has never agreed to adhere to the NPT [because] it is a discriminatory treaty. In 1998, the majority of the military, as well as many diplomats and experts, [thought] that Brazil should not sign the NPT, based on this argument. It is the tradition of Brazil to fight for a more fair international order that is ruled by institutions and norms [and] that considers states to be equally responsible from the point of view of international law. The argument was that we should not subscribe to a treaty that is discriminatory. This did not mean that Brazil aimed at developing nuclear artifacts or whatever.

On the other side of the argument from those who were for signing the NPT was that doing so would lead to a greater access to peaceful nuclear technology. And also that Brazil, Israel, India, and Pakistan were the sole countries that had not signed the NPT. So the concern about being isolated persuaded many of the Brazilian diplomats. Brazil has signed the treaty; it has adhered to the regime. It refuses the "additional protocols."

The additional protocols allows IAEA inspectors to go everywhere they want?

Yes, particularly in terms of having access to technologies that have commercial purposes. The NPT just concerns the amount of uranium that enters and leaves the facilities, while the additional protocols would permit technicians to have access to some technologies that Brazil has developed itself, because it did not have access to foreign technology. So there are economic and commercial applications of the nuclear technology, which explains Brazil's refusal to sign the additional protocols.

You know these things are interconnected, to a certain extent. Brazil's position on its nuclear program is very clear. It is what it is in the Brazilian constitution: We will not use it to develop bombs or any nuclear artifacts. That does not mean that we cannot develop a reactor to be placed into a submarine, which is a military application--but not a military application of nuclear power, but nuclear energy, and that make a huge difference. Close to 95 percent of our foreign trade goes through the sea, and 80 percent of the oil Brazil produces is on the sea. The idea is to have nuclear submarines which are more effective than conventional submarines.

What has been the reaction in Brazil, to the agreement worked out in Iran? There was some criticism of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva welcoming Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad last year, soon after the disputed elections in Iran. Was this regarded as a great achievement for Brazil or is Lula being criticized for it?

Both. I agree with those who are in favor of the agreement, but who are skeptical because they say it's too soon to evaluate the results. It is still too soon to evaluate whether this is going to be a breakthrough for the international community. But from the point of view of Brazil's image abroad, it has been positive already. Because even if it doesn't work, even if all this skepticism about it is correct, Brazil will have taken responsibility for trying to break a dangerous deadlock. If it were not for new initiatives to engage Iran, we would probably go for tougher sanctions, but that would lead to a tougher response from the Iranian government, and this could eventually lead to conflict. So even if it doesn't work, the very fact that the Iranians have agreed to sign an agreement has already diminished Iran's maneuverability, because one month from now if it does not work, Ahmadinejad would be seen as only manipulating Lula and Prime Minister [Recep Tayyip] Erdogan of Turkey. Iran would have lost a positive opinion of countries that favor engagement. And it would be even more isolated than it is now. So in a sense, this has already changed the process.

And what do the critics say?

The critics say that Brazil is too small, that this is an act of vanity based on the idea that he [Lula] can do more than he can. And again, why? Because those people tend to think if you don't have military muscles or economic capacity to press Iran, you will not be able to move the Iranians. But they do not consider that for the Iranians themselves, they want not to be isolated. Although they are right that Brazil does not have a military or economic capacity to sanction and to impose pressure on Iran, Brazil has this political capacity to change the process in such a way to create an opportunity for the Iranians to reorient their place in their region, and to reorient their relations with the international community in a way that would be positive for the Iranians.

 

Brazilian M&A: JPMorgan to buy Gávea hedge fund?

May 19, 2010 10:00pm | by Jonathan Wheatley

Brazil's M&A rumour mill is in action again, this time over JPMorgan and Gávea Investimentos, a Rio de Janeiro hedge fund set up in 2003 by Armínio Fraga, former governor of the central bank, with R$10bn under management.

This article in O Estado de S. Paulo says Highbridge Capital Management, owned by JPMorgan, is preparing to buy 100 per cent of Gávea for an undisclosed sum. The story has been doing the rounds since at least February, but the Estado piece says talks are in their final stages and a deal could be announced next month.

Gávea and JPMorgan wouldn't comment today and Highbridge didn't return calls. But Gávea and JPMorgan are certainly no strangers. Fraga has been on JPMorgan's International Council since 2004.

 

Bank of America

Published: May 19 2010 15:15 | Last updated: May 19 2010 19:55

Why does Bank of America want to sell its stake in Itaú Unibanco? There is a simplistic answer, and perhaps a more subtle one. The former is that the US lender promised the Treasury last year it would boost equity by $3bn either through divestments or raising new capital. BofA only owns about 5 per cent of Brazil's largest bank by market value, representing $5.4bn of BofA's exposure to borrowers and counterparties as at the end of March. That is barely a 10th of BofA's overall emerging market exposure, itself only 20 per cent of total overseas bets.

To be sure, Brazil is one of the hottest banking spots on the planet right now – witness the success there of Spain's Santander – but the truth is BofA's stake barely moves the needle. Best to increase common shareholder's equity by an extra per cent or so wherever it can get it.

But then, if the numbers are so small, why not keep the growth option in Brazil and simply raise the capital instead? A potential answer is that global banking models are being subtly revised in response to increased regulation. One of the little understood mysteries of the boom years is why banks expanded internationally when there were no synergy benefits and shareholders could themselves diversify more efficiently. The reason was leverage: if you are 30 times geared, it is crucial to have a stable earnings base. Geographic diversification was one way to get it, even if returns in individual countries were low.

But if capital adequacy ratios are about to be hiked upwards, the rationale for diversification diminishes. BofA, therefore, is right to pull out of "non-core" regions and to concentrate on products with the highest returns on invested capital. Expect more divestments across the financial sector.

 

BofA set to sell Itau Unibanco stake

By Greg Farrell in New York

Published: May 19 2010 01:59 | Last updated: May 19 2010 01:59

Bank of America is planning to sell its 5.4 per cent stake in Itau Unibanco, a Brazilian lender, in a move that is expected to generate more than $4bn in gross proceeds for the Charlotte, North Carolina bank.

The sale, announced in Brazil late on Tuesday and confirmed by the Charlotte bank, will involve an offering of BofA's 188.5m preferred shares in the bank, expected to take place during the week of May 31, and the sale of 56.5m shares to the Brazilian bank's controlling shareholder, Itau.

Following those sales, BofA will no longer have any interest in Itau, which it considered to be a non-core asset.

As a condition of paying back $45bn in funds from the US government's troubled asset relief programme (Tarp) last December, BofA pledged to raise $3bn in new capital. In its last earnings statement, the Itau investment was being carried on its balance sheet at a cost of $2.6bn.

Itau Unibanco's shares were down 4.46 per cent at R$34.30 in São Paulo on Tuesday.

 

Opinión: Goles que marcará Brasil

20/05/2010 | LLUÍS BASSETS 20/05/2010

El balón es el símbolo obligado del encumbramiento de Brasil como superpotencia. Su brillante tradición deportiva obliga a evaluar en términos futbolísticos sus crecientes éxitos económicos y diplomáticos. Así lo ha hecho el ministro de Exteriores, Celso Amorim, a la hora de calificar el acuerdo obtenido por su presidente, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, junto al primer ministro turco, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, y al presidente Mahmud Ahmadinejad, sobre el programa iraní de enriquecimiento de uranio: "Brasil sólo ha colocado la pelota en el área".

Muchas son las interpretaciones suscitadas por este compromiso tripartito, que sigue los pasos del último intento pilotado desde Naciones Unidas para evitar que el programa iraní desemboque en la fabricación del arma nuclear; y por el que Teherán se compromete a entregar a Turquía 1.200 kilos de uranio poco enriquecido, de los que devolverá a los iraníes una décima parte, a su vez enriquecida al 20% para uso médico.

Desde Washington puede verse como una jugada de los nuevos países emergentes para cerrar el paso a la cuarta serie de sanciones económicas que Estados Unidos estaba preparando y que presentó el martes, pocas horas después de la firma a tres en Teherán. Desde Israel, donde su Gobierno desconfía de las sanciones ante un régimen al que considera una amenaza existencial, cabe considerarlo como una bofetada a Obama, que carga de razón a quienes todo lo fían a la destrucción por medios militares de las instalaciones nucleares iraníes. Desde Europa sólo puede interpretarse como lo que es en cualquiera de los casos: ese balón que sitúa a Brasil en mitad del escenario y desaloja en cambio a quienes tuvieron el máximo protagonismo en los últimos años, tanto a través del llamado Grupo 5+1 (los cinco del Consejo de Seguridad, de los que dos son europeos: Francia y Reino Unido, más Alemania) como del Alto Representante de la UE, Javier Solana, a quien los Seis delegaron el grueso de la negociación, cosa que no han hecho con su sucesora, Catherine Ashton.

Los intereses de Turquía y su premier desembocan directamente en la región a la que Lula ha viajado en dos ocasiones en los tres últimos meses. Están en juego las relaciones de vecindad y el liderazgo regional, aunque también cuenta la competencia con Rusia. Para Brasil, en cambio, todo se juega en la mejora del estatuto internacional del gran país sudamericano. Lula se ha colado en un escenario reservado hasta ayer a las viejas superpotencias por la misma infalible regla de tres con que su país se incorporó al G-20 a la hora de enfrentarse con la crisis financiera, o entró en la cocina decisiva de la Cumbre de Copenhague sobre cambio climático.

Esta actitud responde a una política internacional de cuño realista, que está guiada sobre todo por los intereses de Brasil como potencia americana con vocación global. Es un envite que compite directamente con los europeos, cuya nutrida presencia en las instituciones internacionales, además de acentuar su cacofonía y su capacidad divisiva, no hace más que subrayar la senectud de una arquitectura internacional que se mantiene casi intacta desde que terminó la última guerra mundial hace 65 años.

Lula ha desplegado siempre una gran actividad internacional. Pero este año 2010, el último de su presidencia, ha registrado un salto cualitativo, marcado por dos desplazamientos al exterior que indican como las sondas la profundidad de la vocación de Brasil. El primero le llevó en marzo pasado a Oriente Próximo, zona geográfica que jamás había ocupado a presidente brasileño alguno. El segundo le ha conducido ahora hasta Teherán y le ha proporcionado el raro privilegio de entrevistarse con el Guía Supremo de la Revolución, el ayatolá Alí Jamenei, algo que sólo está al alcance de una nómina muy restringida de mandatarios extranjeros.

Con su imagen de bonhomía proletaria y su enorme prestigio, Lula está actuando como un cohete propulsor de Brasil en la nueva etapa geopolítica multipolar. Está bien claro que, como parte de su legado político, quiere dejar a Brasil situado en lo más alto posible de la escena internacional y especialmente bien colocado en sus apuestas institucionales. De ahí que quiera jugar un papel en el proceso de paz en Oriente Próximo y ahora en un conflicto como el que mantiene Occidente con Irán, vinculado directamente a la política de no proliferación. Lula ha centrado el balón, que está ahora dentro del área. Pero serán sus sucesores quienes deberán empezar a meter los goles como en los mejores tiempos de la selección amarilla.

 

"Brasil es un país serio y este es un camino sin retorno"
Lula explica la transformación brasileña en el encuentro organizado en Madrid por EL PAÍS y 'Valor Económico'

20/05/2010 | JORGE MARIRRODRIGA - Madrid - 20/05/2010

Previsibilidad, pero sobre todo seriedad. Eso es Brasil. Este es el mensaje que, acompañado de unas cifras apabullantes sobre su gestión, el presidente brasileño, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, transmitió ayer en Madrid a los asistentes al encuentro Brasil. Alianza para la nueva economía global, organizado por EL PAÍS y el diario brasileño Valor Económico. Y con una coda importante: "Es un camino sin retorno", subrayó el ex sindicalista.

En la recta final de su gestión -en octubre se celebrarán elecciones presidenciales y el 1 de enero de 2011 abandonará el poder-, Lula expuso ante numerosos empresarios españoles y brasileños varias pinceladas de lo que ha supuesto su paso por la residencia presidencial de Planalto. El mandatario se marcha con 14 millones de puestos de trabajo creados, con 30 millones de pobres incorporados a la clase media y con poder de consumo y con el número de plazas en universidades estatales duplicado. "Y además a nadie le inquieta quién va a ganar las elecciones. Ese es el gran cambio en Brasil", apostilló el presidente, quien además apuntó otro gran cambio en la estrategia brasileña: "Hay muchas empresas e inversiones españolas en Brasil, es la hora de que haya inversiones brasileñas en España", dijo.

Improvisando, con apenas unas notas delante, Lula trenzó en su discurso la modestia personal con el orgullo nacional brasileño y el aviso de que el gigante sudamericano se ha despertado y exige voz y voto en la escena internacional. En toda. "Brasil será una gran potencia económica, pero queremos transformarnos en un gran agente político. Los números son sólidos y el país es serio y previsible, y ahora seremos un actor global", anunció. Y así, asumiendo el papel de líder de un país con peso económico internacional, el presidente brasileño estuvo especialmente duro con la gestión europea de la crisis económica y financiera. "¿Por qué Alemania se ha demorado tanto en ayudar a Grecia? ¿Por qué Europa ha tardado tres meses en ayudar a Grecia? Los países dependían de una decisión colectiva que de colectiva no tenía nada. Se trataba de que Alemania dijera sí". Y dirigiéndose a Felipe González, presente en la sala, tuvo palabras para el presidente del Gobierno, José Luis Zapatero: "Está pagando por algo de lo que no tiene la culpa y mientras los verdaderos responsables hacen como si no tuvieran nada que ver, España, Portugal o una Europa debilitada sufren las consecuencias".

Acto seguido explicó la actitud de su Administración ante la crisis. "Hemos tomado todas las medidas necesarias ante la crisis. No me imagino qué más se puede hacer. Deben saber que en Brasil la televisión está haciendo auténtica apología del consumo. La televisión les dice a los brasileños 'si usted no está comprando porque tiene miedo de que pueda perder su empleo, terminará perdiéndolo. Compre', y tengo que decir que son las clases más bajas del país las que han respondido, las que más han consumido".

Con tono apasionado y dirigiéndose al auditorio en ocasiones con la expresión "compañeros y compañeras", Lula expuso algunos ejemplos concretos de cómo ha mejorado la vida de los brasileños. Y lo hizo con el mismo lenguaje que utiliza en Brasil y que le ha permitido conectar con el electorado del gigante sudamericano de 180 millones de habitantes. "Cuando pregunté a los bancos por qué no se daban créditos a la gente me contestaron: 'porque luego no los pueden pagar'; estaban negando el derecho a la vivienda". "Hemos tenido que acabar con la mentalidad derrotista. Cuando llegamos al poder se escuchaba 'Brasil está en quiebra', 'Brasil tiene una deuda insoportable'. ¡Y eso te lo dicen tus propios compañeros!". "Al llegar al poder me encontré con cuestiones que parecían simples pero que no se resolvían: ¿Por qué no se puede pagar un salario que permita a la gente comprar?".

Levantando una sonrisa en el auditorio, Lula reconoció sus limitaciones. "No soy economista, pero cuando llegué al poder supe que había que debatir sobre economía... y de debates sé mucho". El hombre que convirtió al Partido de los Trabajadores en la primera fuerza política de Brasil recordó los tres pasos básicos que dio al llegar a la presidencia. "Había que probar que era compatible hacer crecer la economía de país y distribuir la renta; que es posible exportar y a la vez hacer crecer el mercado interno, y que aumentar el salario mínimo no quiebra el sistema de previsión social y no dispara la inflación".

Lula considera como uno de sus grandes éxitos el haber terminado con la dicotomía público / privado en la concepción de la política económica. "Es una discusión equivocada", opinó para poner como ejemplo una de sus primeras medidas: la compra por el Estado del 50% de una entidad de crédito privada precisamente para estimular el consumo.

El resultado, más allá de las cifras económicas -y de la aspiración confesada ayer por el propio presidente de convertir a Brasil en la quinta economía del mundo- es resumido por Lula en una palabra: autoestima. "Siempre nos habían dicho que éramos mediocres. Todo lo del exterior era mejor y había quien le daba vergüenza decir que es brasileño. Eso se ha acabado en el Brasil de hoy. De hecho, el pueblo brasileño es de los más trabajadores y creativos".

Brasil reclama desde hace años un puesto permanente en el Consejo de Seguridad de Naciones Unidas, una iniciativa en la que no tiene el respaldo de España más partidaria del aumento de la representación y equilibrio regional en el órgano. "No estamos de acuerdo con el actual modelo de gobernanza mundial de la ONU surgido en 1945. Hay que dar más presencia a África, a América Latina a India y a Japón. Cuantas más decisiones se tomen fuera de la ONU, más decisiones serán unilaterales. Si la ONU sigue así vamos a tener problemas", advirtió. Lula fue más lejos e incluso puso en duda la importancia de foros de reciente creación como el G-20. "El G-20 funcionó en un primer momento, pero su poder de decisión es escaso. La cuestión ahora es ¿cuál es el organismo multilateral que regula el funcionamiento financiero?".

Lula terminó reivindicando su negociación directa ante Irán en la cuestión de la crisis nuclear. "Sin involucrar a más actores no podemos tener tranquilidad en Oriente Medio".

 

A tasas chinas, Brasil creció casi 10% en el primer trimestre

Lo informó el Banco Central de ese país. El Gobierno ahora busca enfriar la economía porque teme que la inflación supere el 5% y se descontrole. Anunciaron medidas para que el crecimiento anual no supere el 7%.

La economía brasileña creció casi 10% en el primer trimestre del año, comparado con igual período de 2009, estimó el Banco Central. El Gobierno ahora elabora medidas de contención del gasto público para impedir que Brasil tenga una expansión del crecimiento que pueda llegar a descontrolar la inflación.

El Indice de la Actividad Económica del Banco Central, una herramienta interna para realizar proyecciones, estima que de enero a marzo la economía creció 9,84% sobre igual período de 2009, y 2,38% sobre el trimestre anterior, informa la agencia AFP.
 
El PBI oficial del primer trimestre será divulgado el 8 de junio. Para el ministro de Economía, la cifra definitiva del crecimiento del primer trimestre podría ser menor a la que informó hoy en Banco Central: de entre el 7,5% y el 8,5%, informa el Estadao.

Así y todo, el dato enciende la luz roja y confirma lo que el Gobierno temía: que tras contraerse 0,2% en 2009 y como consecuencia de este fenómeno, la economía brasileña producirá un "rebote" y crecerá más de 6% en 2010, o 7,5% según proyecciones de Itaú-Unibanco. Esta sería la mayor tasa en 25 años y se acompaña de un repunte de la inflación que los analistas ya estiman superará 5,5% este año, mucho mayor a la meta oficial de 4,5%.

"El problema no es que Brasil no quiera crecer tanto, es que tenemos una historia de inflación que solo fue controlada en los últimos 15 años y sigue preocupando mucho que se dispare a un nivel que se pierda control", explicó a la agencia AFP el economista de la calificadora Austin Ratin, Leonardo dos Santos.

"Un crecimiento de más de 5% al año acciona las alarmas de nuestras insuficiencias productivas y logísticas: la inflación supera 5%, hay lamentos de falta de mano de obra, y en poco tiempo faltarán máquinas y espacio en las carreteras y en los puertos. Es lo que los economistas llaman 'Límite del PIB Potencial", ilustra el columnista de Folha, Vinicius Torres Freire.

El ministro de Hacienda, Guido Mantega, anunció el viernes un millonario recorte presupuestario para contener el gasto público y advirtió que Brasil no permitirá un crecimiento de más de 7% en su economía este año.

"La mejor manera para echar agua fría, para disminuir esa demanda, es disminuir los gastos del Gobierno", dijo entonces Mantega.

También para frenar la inflación y poner paños fríos a la economía, el Banco Central aplicó a fines de abril el primer aumento en casi un año de la tasa básica de interés (se esperan otros en el año), y el Gobierno comenzó a retirar los masivos incentivos fiscales aplicados en 2009.

 

Impactante crecimiento de Brasil en el primer trimestre: 9,84%
Según el Banco Central, el dato indicaría que la economía del gigante sudamericano trepará un mínimo de 6% este año. Y lograría la mayor tasa en un cuarto de siglo. Pero la novedad también preocupa porque se teme que genere inflación.

20/05/2010 | Por: Eleonora Gossman

"¿Qué cree usted que deberíamos hacer en Grecia?", le preguntó el premier griego George Papandreu a su colega Lula da Silva cuando se encontraron hace dos días en Madrid. Quería saber si había alguna receta especial del nuevo "milagro brasileño" que permita al convaleciente país europeo salir de una crisis agónica. El brasileño, sorprendido, le respondió: "Ah, disculpe pero no soy quién para dar consejos". Lo cierto es que ayer se difundió una cifra apabullante del crecimiento productivo de Brasil en el primer trimestre del año: 9,84%.

La información brindada por el Banco Central asombró a economistas locales e internacionales. Ya se hablaba del "recalentamiento" de la economía brasileña, al punto que se barajó entre las consultoras privadas un aumento del Producto Bruto Interno (PBI) para 2010 de hasta 7,5 por ciento. El gobierno brasileño tenía, de hecho, indicios sobre ese desempeño y por eso, hace una semana, arbitró un plan de contingencia para reducir inmediatamente los gastos del gobierno en más de 5.000 millones de dólares, sin afectar -dijeron en Brasilia- las inversiones en obras públicas. Es que si se mantuviera el ritmo de evolución económica, Brasil crecería en 2010 9,5 por ciento. No es algo que desee el tándem integrado por el ministro de Hacienda, Guido Mantega, y el titular del Banco Central, Henrique Meirelles. Hasta ahora han dirigido con una envidiable eficiencia, algo que admite hasta la oposición. La razón, según dijeron ambos, es evitar que un consumo excesivo provoque una presión inflacionaria. Y sobre esto Lula, Mantega y Meirelles mantienen una coincidencia: no permitir el desmadre de los precios, aun sea a costa de poner el pie en el freno.

Ayer, el secretario de Política Económica Nelson Barbosa salió a defender que no existe un "super calentamiento" de la economía. Para el secretario del Tesoro Nacional Arno Augustin también esa expresión es excesiva. Declaró además que hay que ser muy cautos a la hora de cortar gastos. "Las medidas tienen que ser cuidadosamente contractivas" porque hay una crisis mundial en marcha que podría ser contraproducente si se quiere desacelerar más allá de lo necesario. Por otra parte, ambos funcionarios indicaron que el gran crecimiento del primer trimestre está relacionado con la gran caída del mismo período de 2009. "Es una consecuencia de la salida de la crisis. No podemos olvidar que el último trimestre de 2008 y el primero de 2009 representó una caída de 3% del PBI brasileño".

Cuando la prensa preguntó a Barbosa si el gobierno tomaría medidas fiscales a lo largo del año para ayudar a contener el avance económico, el funcionario respondió que esas decisiones se toman de acuerdo a cómo va el desempeño económico. A decir verdad, hablar de freno o desaceleración cuando existe una creciente inestabilidad en las economías europeas -al punto de hablarse del fin de la zona del euro- es cuanto menos aventurado. Brasil ya tuvo la experiencia de fines de 2008 y principios de 2009 cuando su economía se paralizó por el miedo provocado por la crisis financiera mundial. En aquel momento, no había medidas en cierne desplegadas para combatir las consecuencias dentro del país. Ahora se manejan más instrumentos y nadie puede jurar que no será preciso utilizar los sistemas de financiamiento de la demanda interna y la desgravación impositiva de sectores de consumo durable para impedir que las tormentas mundiales vuelvan a abatir la economía doméstica como ocurrió hace un año y medio.

La información del Banco Central sobre el aumento del PBI trimestral se basó en el análisis de tres sectores: el agro, la industria y los servicios. La institución evaluó también que la inflación este año será ligeramente superior a lo previsto, probablemente de 5 por ciento. El ministro Mantega llamó a ser "muy prudentes". A diferencia de los privados, ubicó el crecimiento anual entre 5,5 y 6 por ciento. Así lo indicó en Madrid en un foro de inversores extranjeros. También allí admitió que le tocará a los países del llamado BRIC -China, Brasil, India y Rusia- liderar la recuperación económica mundial en 2010. "Los 4 países darán cuenta de más del 60% del crecimiento global para este año", concluyó.

 

 

El frente externo / No hay nuevos envíos al país asiático

China dejó de comprar aceite de soja
Es una represalia por las barreras comerciales argentinas a sus productos; la semana próxima parte una misión urgente a Pekín

 

Noticias de Economía: anterior | siguiente | Jueves 20 de mayo de 2010 | Publicado en edición impresa 

José Crettaz | LA NACION

Tal como advirtió hace más de un mes, China dejó de comprar aceite de soja argentino. En represalia por las barreras que sus productos encuentran en el ingreso a la Argentina, el gigante asiático aplica desde abril una nueva regulación sanitaria que frenó todos los envíos de ese producto. El mercado asiático, destino del 45% del aceite de soja argentino, es el principal cliente del país en este rubro.

Para esta época del año, cuando la cosecha gruesa se acerca a su final y las fábricas del polo oleaginoso del Gran Rosario trabajan a pleno, es usual que China intensifique sus compras de aceite desgomado, un bien intermedio que antes de ser destinado al consumo humano o animal es reprocesado en destino. Sin embargo, según confirmaron fuentes de la Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario y de la Cámara de la Producción, la Industria y el Comercio Argentino-China, no se están haciendo negocios con ese mercado en este rubro. De acuerdo con un reporte de la agencia Reuters, las estadísticas que difunde el Ministerio de Comercio chino tampoco registran encargos de este producto a exportadores argentinos.

Consultado por La Nacion, el director ejecutivo de la Cámara de la Industria Aceitera de la República Argentina (Ciara), Alberto Rodríguez, respondió escuetamente: "No hablamos de China, no hacemos comentarios sobre ese tema". Todas las fuentes coinciden en que se cumplió con todos los contratos firmados, pero que no hay nuevos acuerdos y tampoco nuevos envíos previstos para este mes, cuando ?por razones estacionales? deberían intensificarse esos embarques. "No se están haciendo nuevos negocios con China, pero sí con otros destinos, como la India, Egipto y Sudáfrica. No tenemos aún los datos de marzo, pero en las últimas semanas no registramos envíos a China", dijo Lorena D?Angelo, analista del mercado de granos de la bolsa rosarina.

Ante la gravedad de la situación, la semana próxima ?apenas terminen los festejos por el Bicentenario de la Revolución de Mayo? viajará a Pekín el secretario de Comercio y Relaciones Económicas Internacionales de la Cancillería, Alfredo Chiaradia. La delegación negociadora incluye al embajador plenipotenciario para asuntos agrícolas, Carlos Cheppi, y al secretario de Industria, Eduardo Bianchi.

No será la primera vez que ambos países dialogan sobre este diferendo. Apenas se ratificó la medida, a principios de abril, el canciller Jorge Taiana citó de urgencia al embajador chino en Buenos Aires, Gang Zeng, para transmitirle "el malestar y la preocupación del gobierno argentino". Pocos días después de esa reunión, viajó a China el vicepresidente del Senasa, Carlos Paz, con objeto de lograr de su contraparte el compromiso de revisar la decisión china que elevó hasta 100 partes por millón el nivel de solvente permitido en los embarques ?superior al que tiene el promedio de los embarques argentinos?. Finalmente, a mediados de abril, vino a Buenos Aires el viceministro de Comercio chino, Jian Yaoping, y se entrevistó con Taiana.

Sin proveedores alternativos

"Cuando se sienten a negociar y les hablen a los chinos sobre el aceite de soja, ellos van a poner sobre la mesa la larga lista de productos suyos que tienen problemas para entrar a la Argentina", explicó un empresario con intereses en China.

En el mundo, prácticamente no hay proveedores alternativos de aceite de soja a gran escala. Salvo la misma China, que tiene un creciente número de aceiteras y para abastecerlas incrementó las compras de poroto de soja argentino en los últimos meses. Según datos del Ministerio de Comercio chino, ese país aumentó las importaciones del grano sin procesar desde la Argentina: los negocios en ese rubro pasaron de 1,36 millones de toneladas en abril a 1,73 millones en mayo.

Según fuentes rosarinas, varias de las aceiteras argentinas están readecuando sus instalaciones para satisfacer el nuevo requerimiento sanitario. De mantenerse las restricciones, el impacto económico no sólo recaería sobre los privados. Según la Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires, "el Gobierno registraría una reducción en sus ingresos impositivos, fundamentalmente en concepto de derechos de exportación; sólo por este último impuesto hay en juego US$ 480 millones".

 

NECESITA OTROS U$S 2.500 MILLONES PARA LLEGAR AL PISO DE 60% DE ACEPTACIÓN
Boudou no convenció a bonistas y sólo entraron u$s 8.500 millones al canje
Economía descubrió que hay más tenedores minoristas de lo esperado y no ingresaron. Los bancos habían garantizado una aceptación de u$s 10.000 millones

ESTEBAN RAFELE Buenos Aires ()

Jueves 20 de mayo de 2010

 

El ministro de Economía, Amado Boudou, informó anoche que el primer tramo del canje de los u$s 18.300 millones que permanecen en default finalizó el viernes último con una aceptación del 45%. Según datos preliminares entregados por el ministro, se suscribieron u$s 8.483,27 millones en bonos Discount, destinados a inversores institucionales, y u$s 59,6 millones en títulos Par, orientados al público minorista.

El titular de la cartera de Hacienda sostuvo que los bonos Discount fueron suscriptos por los grandes fondos de inversión. "Los grandes tenedores de deuda, con tenencias superiores a los u$s 100 millones, entraron todos, salvo aquellos fondos buitre que siguen con los juicios", dijo Boudou en una rueda de prensa.

Según los cálculos de Economía, los fondos litigantes totalizan u$s 3.000 millones, por lo que quedarían en manos de fondos de inversión medianos –con tenencias inferiores a los u$s 100 millones– y bonistas individuales casi u$s 7.000 millones. No obstante, los bancos admiten que en este tipo de operaciones, con una cesación de pagos declarada hace ocho años y medio, podría perderse cerca del 2% del total de los u$s 100.000 millones que ingresaron en default a fines de 2001.

La aceptación del 45% confirmada hasta el viernes, periodo de "alta temprana" destinado a jugadores institucionales, contrasta con la expectativa del mercado. La city porteña y las plazas financieras internacionales aguardaban un ingreso de deuda impaga superior al 50% hasta el momento. Pero el ministro juzgó como positiva la marcha de la reestructuración.

Los u$s 8.482,7 millones suscriptos por grandes fondos de inversión estuvieron muy por debajo de los u$s 10.000 millones que habían garantizado los bancos que acercaron la oferta, Barclays, Citi y Deutsche.

Al ser consultado sobre si el nivel de ingreso es inferior al esperado, Boudou replicó: "Para nosotros, no. Los bancos habían hablado de entre u$s 6.000 millones y u$s 10.000 millones y entró el promedio. Siempre dijimos que el piso de aceptación que buscamos es del 60%".

En rigor, los bancos se habían comprometido a garantizar una aceptación del 50% (u$s 10.000 millones) siempre y cuando se respetara la oferta que ellos proponía. Pero el Gobierno quitó de ese paper los pagos pasados correspondientes al cupón del PBI, con lo que se ahorró unos u$s 1.500 millones. "Quizás (de haberlos incluido) los fondos buitre hubieran entrado, pero esta oferta no está pensada para los buitres", afirmó Boudou.

Funcionarios –por lo bajo– y agentes del mercado esperaban un buen nivel de aceptación en la primera etapa del canje para empujar a los inversores minoristas a ingresar en la operación. Pero ahora el Gobierno deberá convencer a tenedores de deuda por al menos u$s 2.500 millones para conseguir el piso oficial, del 60%. Eso, a pesar de que analistas consideran que el Ejecutivo necesita una aceptación superior al 70% para aislar a los fondos litigantes.

Boudou ratificó ayer que el país se reservará hasta el cierre del canje, el próximo 7 de junio, la posibilidad de emitir bonos Global 2017 por u$s 1.000 millones. "La tasa hoy hubiera sido del 10,75%, pero queremos colocar a un dígito", dijo el ministro. Según datos de mercado, los inversores le exigirían a la Argentina alrededor de 13% por el dinero fresco.

El ministro desechó la posibilidad de extender el plazo de canje de no conseguir el piso del 60% de aceptación.

 

LOS EMPRESARIOS RECIBEN SEÑALES DE QUE LAS RESTRICCIONES SE FLEXIBILIZARÁN
Comienzan a liberar alimentos de Brasil

NATALIA DONATO Buenos Aires ()

Jueves 20 de mayo de 2010

Aunque todavía hay varios camiones y barcos cargados con alimentos sin poder cruzar la frontera a la espera de la autorización de la Secretaría de Comercio, los empresarios locales y brasileños comenzaron lentamente a advertir que el Gobierno está dando varias señales de que retrotraerá la medida comunicada por Guillermo Moreno a los importadores.

Ayer fueron liberados unos 15 camiones de firmas paulistas y las cadenas de supermercados consensuaron con el funcionario dejar pasar unos días para luego analizar caso por caso.

Por otro lado, a las declaraciones de la presidenta Cristina Fernández, en Madrid, sobre la inexistencia de frenos a las importaciones, se sumaron ayer las del ministro del Interior, Florencio Randazzo, quien insistió en que el gobierno "no ha cerrado" el ingreso de mercadería, aunque "va a defender el desarrollo de la industria nacional y el trabajo de los argentinos" en casos de dumping.

Fuentes del supermercadismo reconocieron que Moreno bajó la guardia, que está enviando señales de una notoria flexibilización de la medida que, según había advertido semanas atrás, comenzaría a regir el 1º de junio. A su vez, informaron que esperarán algunos días para analizar qué ocurre y que, por el momento, mantendrán frenadas sus compras de productos al exterior, que de todas formas representan apenas el 1% de sus ventas totales.

Desde la Cámara de Importadores de la Argentina (CIRA), en tanto, reconocieron que "se liberaron algunos camiones brasileños", pero insistieron en que no bajarán la guardia por el momento. "Seguimos hablando con las empresas afectadas, todavía hay camiones frenados en Paso de los Libres y embarques detenidos, por lo que vamos a esperar", dijeron desde la entidad que dirige Diego Pérez Santistéban. Según las fuentes de la cámara, estará normalizada la situación cuando los procedimientos vuelvan a ser los de antes, es decir, cuando los técnicos del Instituto Nacional de Alimentos (INAL) puedan liberar por si solos –sin pedir la autorización a Moreno– la mercadería.

Por su parte, el canciller de Uruguay, Luis Almagro, confirmó que su gobierno presentó ante la Argentina notas en las que se le piden explicaciones sobre las restricciones.

 

Fuerte inversión de Telefónica en Brasil

EL CRONISTA Buenos Aires ()

Jueves 20 de mayo de 2010

La compañía española sigue apostando a que el crecimiento de su negocio llegue de Latinoamérica. Para apuntalar ese objetivo anunció que invertirá cerca de u$s 2.275 millones (2.250 millones de euros o unos 5.000 millones de reales), tanto para el negocio de telefonía fija como móvil en Brasil durante 2010.

Así lo dio a conocer ayer José María Álvarez Pallete, presidente de Telefónica para Latinoamérica, durante su participación en las jornadas "Alianza para la Nueva Economía Global: Encuentro en Brasil".

La compañía española ya había desembolsado cerca de u$s 1.853 millones durante el 2009 en el país vecino, al cual considera como uno de sus pilares de crecimiento.

De acuerdo con los resultados financieros de la firma, presentados la semana pasada, en los últimos 12 meses el número de accesos gestionados por la compañía en Brasil aumentó 12.8%, hasta el total de 69.2 millones de accesos.

 

OBAMA ESPERA QUE LAS MEDIDAS CONTRA EL RÉGIMEN DE TEHERÁN SE APRUEBEN EN SEMANAS
Brasil y Turquía retoman la ofensiva y reclaman que no se sancione a Irán

Lula y el premier turco enviaron una carta al Consejo de Seguridad de la ONU en la que señalan que "es tiempo de negociar pacíficamente y evitar medidas dañinas"

AGENCIAS Brasilia ()

El mandatario brasileño Lula Da Silva y el primer ministro turco Tayyip Erdogan solicitaron ayer al Consejo de Seguridad de Naciones Unidas que los 15 países miembros no adopten nuevas sanciones contra Irán por su programa nuclear, anunció el ministro brasileño de Asuntos Exteriores.

Ambos países consideran que "es tiempo de negociar pacificamente y evitar medidas dañinas para la resolución de este problema", afirmaron el jefe de la diplomacia brasileña, Celso Amorim, y su homólogo turco, Ahmet Davutoglu, en una carta escrita en inglés y distribuida a los periodistas.

El documento está acompañado de la declaración conjunta firmada esta semana en Teherán por Brasil, Turquía e Irán que prevé un intercambio de uranio irano-turco para eliminar la amenaza de nuevas sanciones sobre la República islámica.

El acuerdo fue refutado con la realización de un borrador impulsado por Washington, con nuevas sanciones contra Irán, al que acusan de falta de transparencia sobre su plan nuclear.

Pero en una rueda de prensa Lula advirtió que "todo volverá a foja cero en caso de que el Consejo de Seguridad no se siente a negociar las nuevas condiciones para que Irán desarrolle su plan de energía nuclear. De lo contrario, tendremos un problema serio de gobierno global". Y agregó que "Brasil quiere ser un actor global debido a que no está de acuerdo con el actual sistema de la ONU".

Amorim apuntó además que el desconocimiento al trato por parte de las potencias podría "radicalizar más" las posiciones iraníes.

A su vez, Erdogan dijo a la prensa en la cumbre de la Unión Europea y del Mercosur en Madrid que "es tiempo de discutir si creemos en la supremacía de la ley o en la ley del más fuerte".

El pacto de la discordia

Pero Estados Unidos continuó ayer rechazando la posibilidad de hacer marcha atrás con la sanciones. El presidente Barack Obama manifestó su plena satisfacción ante el acuerdo firmando el martes entre miembros permanentes del Consejo de Seguridad (EE.UU., Francia, Gran Bretaña, Rusia y China) y expresó su deseo de que "las nuevas sanciones contra Irán estén aprobadas en semanas".

En una reunión que mantuvo con su par francés Nicolas Sarkozy, Obama aseguró que "si Irán adquiere armas nucleares podría tener un gran efecto desestabilizador en Oriente Medio". Y afirmó que "la comunidad internacional nunca ha estado tan unida".

 

Les pays émergents concentreront les 2/3 de la croissance mondiale, selon Guido Mantega

 

Les quatre grands pays émergents dits BRIC (Brésil, Russie, Inde et Chine) doperont l'économie mondiale et représenteront à eux seuls les 2/3 de la croissance globale pour les cinq années à venir, a assuré mercredi le ministre des Finances du Brésil, Guido Mantega.

"Dans les cinq prochaines années, ce sont les pays émergents, les BRIC qui seront à la tête de la croissance mondiale et représenteront les deux tiers (de la croissance, ndlr) de l'économie mondiale", a affirmé à Madrid M. Mantega.

Le responsable, qui s'exprimait lors d'une conférence sur l'économie brésilienne en marge des sommets entre l'UE et les pays d'Amérique latine, a indiqué que la prévision de croissance annuelle pour le Brésil sur cette période de cinq ans était de 5 à 5,5%.

Pour 2010, les prévisions de croissance sont de 5,5% à 6% pour Brésil, de 10% pour la Chine, de 7% pour l'Inde et de 5,5% pour la Russie, a rappelé le ministre brésilien.

"Nous avons tous les outils pour être d'ici dix ans une des économies les plus dynamiques au monde", a déclaré pour sa part le ministre brésilien au Plan, Paulo Bernardo.

Selon le FMI, les quatre pays BRIC qui ont déjà concenté, entre 2000 et 2008, environ la moitié de la croissance mondiale, représenteront 61% de la progression du PIB mondial en 2014.

 

Brésil: la croissance toute proche des 10 %
Au premier trimestre, le PIB a augmenté de 9,84 % en rythme annuel. Mais le pays redoute un emballement de l'inflation et s'inquiète de risques de surchauffe.

20/05/10 - 07H16   - actualisé à 09:17:20 | Les Echos (source AFP)

La forte reprise de l'économie brésilienne se confirme. De janvier à mars, le PIB a augmenté de 9,84 % en rythme annuel et de 2,38 % d'un trimestre à l'autre. Ce résultat rend réaliste les prévisions du gouvernement d'une croissance de plus de 6 % en 2010, voire 7,5 %, soit le taux le plus élevé de ces vingt-cinq dernières années. En 2009, l'économie s'était contractée de 0,2 %.

Toutefois, cette forte croissance pourrait s'accompagner d'une hausse de l'inflation qui, selon les marchés, pourrait atteindre 5,5 %, soit 1 un point de plus que l'objectif officiel. «Le problème n'est pas que le Brésil ne veut pas d'une telle croissance, c'est que nous redoutons une inflation comme par le passé. L'inflation a uniquement été contrôlée ces 15 dernières années mais elle continue à beaucoup nous inquiéter», a expliqué à l'AFP l'économiste Leonardo dos Santos de l'agence Austin Ratin. «Une croissance au-delà de 5% tire la sonnette d'alarme au niveau de nos insuffisances productives et logistiques. L'inflation dépasse 5%, on pâtit du manque de main d'oeuvre et bientôt il manquera de machines et d'espace sur les routes et dans les ports. C'est ce que les économistes appellent la 'limite du PIB potentiel'», selon un analyste du journal Folha de Sao Paulo, Vinicius Torres Freire.

Dans le cas de la Chine, un des quatre grands pays émergents dits BRIC (avec le Brésil, la Russie et l'Inde), où l'objectif de croissance est de 8% pour 2010, l'inflation, les prix de l'immobilier et le crédit ont encore augmenté en avril, alimentant les craintes d'une surchauffe. «Nous ne craignons pas un vol de poule (un décollage éphémère suivi d'une chute). Ce que nous ne voulons pas c'est voler au-delà de ce qui était planifié», a expliqué mercredi à Madrid le ministre brésilien de la Planification, Paulo Bernardo. «Nous jugeons raisonnable de croître de 6% cette année et de 4 à 5% l'an prochain», a-t-il ajouté.

Le moteur de la croissance brésilienne est son énorme marché de consommation interne, dans un pays qui a réduit sa misère et où plus de 20 millions de personnes ont accédé aux biens de consommation. Le commerce à augmenté de 13% au premier trimestre et le gouvernement table sur la création de 2,5 millions d'emplois cette année.

Mais le pays ne peut pas se permettre une croissance supérieure à plus de 7% cette année, a déclaré la semaine dernière le ministre des Finances, Guido Mantega. «La meilleure façon de jeter de l'eau froide pour réduire cette demande, c'est de diminuer les dépenses du gouvernement», a-t-il estimé, annonçant des coupes de 17 milliards de dollars dans les dépenses publiques. Il a également assuré que le taux de croissance du premier trimestre devait être minimisé en raison des mesures fiscales qui avaient été prises en 2009 pour doper la consommation. Selon lui, l'activité devrait augmenter à un rythme plus raisonnable dans les prochains mois.

Pour contrer l'inflation, la Banque centrale du Brésil a annoncé fin avril une augmentation de 0,75 point de son taux directeur, à 9,50%, la première en près d'un an.