May 11: Brazil sets 6% growth limit
May 11 2010 Guido Mantega, Brazilian finance minister, talks to Jonathan Wheatley at the FT's Brazil Infrastructure conference in Rio de Janeiro. To prevent overheating in the economy and growth exceeding 5.5-6%, he reveals a drive to reduce government spending and alludes to a lowering of import tariffs to decrease inflationary pressure. (5m 28sec)
Video: http://video.ft.com/v/84454739001/May-11-Brazil-sets-6-growth-limit
Telefónica under pressure over Vivo bid
By Andrew Parker in London, Mark Mulligan in Madrid and Peter Wise in Lisbon
Published: May 11 2010 08:04 | Last updated: May 11 2010 18:45
Telefónica was on Tuesday under pressure to increase its €5.7bn ($7.2bn) offer to buy Portugal Telecom's stake in Vivo, their Brazilian mobile phone joint venture.
Portugal Telecom's board on Monday rejected an unsolicited cash offer from the Spanish telecoms group to buy the Portuguese company's 50 per cent stake in Brasilcel, which has a controlling interest in Vivo. Telefónica owns the remainder of Brasilcel.
Telefónica's attempt to secure exclusive control of Vivo, Brazil's largest mobile operator, forms part of broader efforts by Telefónica to strengthen its faltering position in the country. Brazil has been the most important profit contributor among Telefónica's Latin American telecoms businesses.
Telefónica is hoping that some of Portugal Telecom's shareholders will urge the Portuguese company's board to review its rejection of the €5.7bn offer.
The Spanish company said it had no plans to increase its offer. Santiago Fernández Valbuena, Telefónica's chief financial officer, said: "The offer is full, final and fair."
Telefónica said it also envisaged making an offer for Vivo's free float, worth €600m. It would raise the total value of the proposed transaction to €6.3bn.
However, Zeinal Bava, Portugal Telecom's chief executive, said selling Vivo "would mean amputating our future".
"Scale and growth are critical success factors in telecoms and we are committed to making Vivo grow for the benefit of our shareholders," he added.
Robin Bienenstock, analyst at Bernstein, estimated Telefónica's €5.7bn offer represented a premium of 109 per cent on the fair value of Portugal Telecom's stake in Brasilcel.
She said if Telefónica raised its offer, it would not be a bad outcome for Portugal Telecom to accept.
"PT could reduce its debt, give some cash back to shareholders and consider other investments," she added. "But it would be very uncomfortable for PT management who would find themselves without a growth engine in a natural market for them, and with a large amount of cash on their hands."
Pedro Pinto Oliveira, analyst at Banco BPI, said Portugal Telecom was likely to gain support from shareholders in rejecting Telefónica's offer.
"It's unlikely PT will sell, but this could be the first step towards resolving the stalemate in Brazil where Telefónica wants to consolidate and PT wants to use the opportunity to grow."
César Alierta, Telefónica's chairman, wants to combine Vivo with Telesp, the Spanish company's underperforming Brazilian fixed-line phone business, to achieve cost savings.
Mr Alierta held talks with Mr Bava last month about a possible merger of Vivo and Telesp, but Portugal Telecom is sceptical.
The Portuguese company has repeatedly refused to sell its 50 per cent stake in Brasilcel. Telefónica made a €3bn-plus offer to buy Portugal Telecom out of Vivo in 2007, but was rebuffed.
Given Portugal Telecom's reluctance to quit Vivo, Telefónica has been considering other options to improve its Brazilian position. No decisions have been taken.
One option would be a takeover of Portugal Telecom, but Telefónica could run into political opposition. Another option would be a takeover of Telecom Italia, but it could also face political controversy.
A Telecom Italia takeover would enable Telefónica to secure control of TIM Brasil, the Italian company's Brazilian telecoms business and the country's third-largest mobile operator. However, a Telecom Italia takeover would be fraught with risk. With net debt of €34bn, Telecom Italia is western Europe's most leveraged former fixed-line phone monopoly.
Telefónica became the largest shareholder in Telecom Italia in 2007 by joining a consortium that bought a controlling stake in the company.
Telefónica's Brazilian problem
Published: May 11 2010 09:27 | Last updated: May 11 2010 18:51
If Portugal Telecom's chief executive had crossed his arms and stamped his foot his message could not have been clearer. Allowing Telefónica to buy his company's share of Vivo, their joint Brazilian mobile venture, would mean "amputating PT's future", he said. But with almost four weeks until the €5.7bn cash offer expires, Telefónica hopes that PT's shareholders will pressure management into a change of mind. It should not hold its breath.
The generosity of Telefónica's offer reveals its increasing desperation to gain full control of Vivo for a merger with its struggling fixed line business. With an eye on the synergies the combination could create (between €2bn to €4bn by most estimates) it has offered PT more than double the market value of its stake, and a good $2bn more than most analysts have valued it at. The cash would allow PT to reduce significantly its $5.5bn net debt and conduct share buybacks or pay a special dividend. That would be an appealing prospect for shareholders who watched their investment fall by a quarter this year as Portuguese sovereign debt worries mounted, and especially for some of the Portuguese banking groups on the shareholder register.
But to sell out of Brazil, which contributes 40 per cent of PT's ebitda and all of its growth, would leave the company reliant on Portugal, an ex-growth market whose stuttering economy is likely to suffer further as Lisbon implements harsh austerity measures to reduce the country's deficit. It would be a bleak business and charismatic chief executive Zeinal Bava would surely leave.
Telefónica is clearly determined to sort out its Brazilian problem (and financial results due later this week might reveal why). PT need be in no hurry to do anything. Shareholders would do well to let the Spaniards sweat.
Argentina to Greece: don't do what we did
May 11, 2010 5:36pm
The EU and IMF's massive €110bn EU bailout for Greece will fail. This is the stark view of Argentine President Cristina Fernández, whose country had the dubious distinction of crashing into the world's biggest debt default in 2001, on nearly $100bn.
Speaking at an event on Monday night to refinance debt for Argentina's provinces, which are mired debt, Fernández said the Greek rescue plan repeated "the same recipes that they applied to us and that provoked (what happened in) 2001″.
Argentina, as an IMF member, voted for the rescue package, but "critically", Ms Fernández said, adding the enforced austerity will have "terrible consequences" on the real economy. "They are repeating prescriptions whereby what they are trying to do is rescue the financial system. We believe these policies are condemned to failure and that is why we don't apply them in our country," she said.
She defended the economic model championed by her husband, Néstor Kirchner, in his 2003-07 government, which she has continued in her administration from 2007 onwards. "Since 2003, we have been applying a totally different model that has permitted a very strong and very sustained reduction in the nation's debt," she said.
What she didn't mention was how those same government policies have led to out-of-control public spending, unbridled inflation and widely mistrusted official statistics. Nor did she refer to her governmennt's controversial grab of private pension funds, or her moves to use central bank funds to pay off debt, which triggered an unprecedented political crisis. The government has used some reserves to pay creditors, including the Andean Development Corporation in March, and many here see the use of reserves as opening the door to the central bank financing an increasing share of government spending in the run-up to presidential elections next year.
Nor did she refer to her government's controversial grab of private pension funds, or her to pay off debt which many here see as opening the door to the central bank financing an increasing share of spending in the run-up to presidential elections next year.
Ironically, Argentina is seeking to issue new debt now, as part of a debt swap designed to mop up nearly $20bn still unpaid since the 2001 default. The Greek rescue plan cheered markets, boosting Argentine bonds and giving a fillip to the swap prospects. But the uncertain outlook may well force Argentina to postpone the plans to raise $1bn in new money, which was to have to be launched in tandem to the swap.
A change in gear
12/05/2010 | By Stefan Wagstyl
As chief executives emerge from recession they are seeing some unfamiliar names scurrying around the global corporate landscape.
In Europe Geely, the Chinese carmaker, is finalising a $1.8bn (€1.4bn, £1.2bn) acquisition of Volvo, the Swedish manufacturer. In Africa, India's Bharti Airtel is set to become the world's fifth-largest mobile phone operator through the $10.7bn purchase of the regional assets of Zain, the Kuwaiti telecommunications group. In the US, Reliance Industries, India's biggest private sector company, is completing a $1.7bn joint venture with Atlas Energy after narrowly failing in Europe with a $14.5bn bid for LyondellBasell, a Dutch chemicals group.
Meanwhile, after last year's slump, exports from emerging economies are recovering at break-neck speed, rising last month in China, for example, by 30 per cent.
Companies from emerging economies are back on the move. They "have come out of the crisis better than developed world corporates", says Chris Hemmings of the PwC consultancy.
These groups are climbing up the value chain with new products, services and brands, ranging from high-technology Chinese electronics to Indian cars and Brazilian financial services. As Edward Tse of the Booz consultancy writes in a recently published book: "China is no longer exclusively a source of low-cost manufacturing. It is realising its potential to be far more: a source of global competitors in every aspect of business on the global stage."
The same applies to India and, to a lesser extent, Latin America. For global corporates, this is an even bigger shift than the emergence of Japanese groups as international investors 25 years ago. The new challengers are moving faster and more aggressively than did the cautious Japanese.
The new multinationals are coming from countries more open to foreign investment than Japan was in the 1980s. Hundreds of international companies are already firmly established in markets such as China, India and Brazil; developed and emerging world companies are competing head on across a range of industries - and co-operating extensively through joint ventures. But the rivalry is becoming more intense, embracing the developed as well as the emerging world.
For portfolio investors, too, the game is changing. Once investing in emerging markets mainly meant backing a particular economy's growth potential or its capacity to export commodities. No longer. Now it means investing in businesses already ranked among the world's largest in their industries, such as SAB Miller, the South African brewer; Cemex, the Mexican cement group; or Huawei, China's biggest telecommunications network equipment group. It means investing in new technologies, brands and ways of doing business.
Competing with emerging market companies is nothing new for developed world multinationals. While they faltered in the worst recession since the 1930s, they are recovering rapidly. The number of emerging markets companies in the Financial Times Global 500 may have nearly doubled from pre-crisis levels of 68 in March 2007 to 119 two months ago - but the majority are still from the developed world.
Western, Japanese and South Korean multinationals retain huge reserves of talent, technology and capital. Many have been in emerging markets for decades, including Unilever, the Anglo-Dutch consumer products group; General Electric, the US conglomerate; and Siemens, the German engineering group. Others have joined more recently, among them Microsoft, the US software giant, which has established its biggest development centre outside the US in Beijing; and Cisco Systems, the computer network group, which has set up "a second headquarters", Cisco East, in Bangalore, India.
Davin Chor of the Singapore Management University argues against over-generalising from the weaknesses of a few high-profile American companies, such as the carmakers. "One shouldn't be too bearish about American companies going forward."
The same applies to European companies. The biggest cross-border acquisition this year so far is the planned $35.5bn purchase by British insurer Prudential of AIA, the Asian business of US group AIG - a more conventional case of a developed world company moving into emerging markets.
Equally, some emerging market companies were battered during the crisis - notably over-borrowed Russian resources groups such as Rusal, the aluminium group; and some Mexican companies, including Cemex. "There are huge disparities in performance within sectors and within countries," says Alok Kshirsagar of McKinsey consultancy's Asia Centre.
But there is no doubt which way the economic winds are blowing. "From my new base in Hong Kong, the shift from west to east is clearer than ever," Michael Geoghegan, chief executive of HSBC, one of the world's biggest banks, said last week. "In developed markets, the risks of double-dip recession and stagnation haven't gone away. In contrast, recovery in emerging markets looks secure." said Mr Geoghegan, who this year moved from London to Hong Kong.
Driving emerging market companies are their domestic economies. While developed countries' gross domestic product contracted 3.5 per cent last year and are expected to record sluggish growth of about 2.5 per cent in 2010, the emerging world avoided recession and is forecast to bounce back to a healthy 6.3 per cent this year. While policymakers in the developed world fret about stagnation, their emerging market counterparts worry about inflation.
The domestic demand surge is clearest in India, where incomes are rising from a low base. Companies reaping the rewards include Hero, a motorcycle manufacturer; Godrej, a producer of personal care products; and cement makers such as India Cements and Grasim. "What we find is that many Indian companies that focus on India itself have done extremely well," says Kwok Chern-Yeh of Aberdeen Asset Management Asia.
Asia - and especially China - is living in a credit boom that contrasts sharply with the scarcity blighting western Europe, the US and, to a lesser degree, eastern Europe and Latin America. While there are concerns the boom could end in a bust, for now, Chinese companies have cheap finance.
By contrast, the emerging market companies that have suffered are those in countries that followed the developed world into recession - notably Russia, where 2009 output fell 7.9 per cent; South Africa, (down 1.8 per cent); and Mexico (down 6.5 per cent), the laggard of Latin America. Russian tycoons who borrowed heavily before the crisis have been forced to sell assets to cut debts, most notably Oleg Deripaska, Rusal's main shareholder.
The most visible - and most controversial - element in emerging multinationals' expansion is corporate acquisition, seen by many directors as the fastest way to advance. Li Shufu, Geely's poetry-writing founder, says the Volvo takeover is the perfect antidote for what his own and most other Chinese carmakers lack: technology, research capability and a reputation for quality and dependability.
While the overall quantity of capital flowing from the developed world into emerging economies is still far greater than that going in the opposite direction, in corporate acquisitions it is a different story. Last year, for the first time, takeovers by emerging world companies of developed world groups exceeded takeovers going the other way - the former valued at $105bn, the latter at $74.2bn, according to Dealogic, a business data company.
"In the next few years we will see a growing number of acquisitions in Europe and the United States by companies based in emerging markets, es-pecially in Asia and South America," says Rodolfo De Benedetti of CIR, an Italian conglomerate. "These companies today have considerable financial resources and good management, and are interested in entering new markets and acquiring competitors."
As well as the developed world, new corporate investment is being targeted at other emerging markets - often challenging western groups. The race for natural resources is particularly tight, with China and India leading the way. Not to be left out, Vale, the Brazilian miner, last month paid $2.5bn for a half-share in a remote iron ore deposit in Guinea. For South African companies, raised on links with the west, investing in Africa is a new "orthodoxy" says Jacko Maree, chief executive of Standard Bank, the country's biggest.
Alongside acquisitions, partnerships matter in a globalised world, with scores of joint ventures already set up between developed world motor groups and their emerging market counterparts. In the latest case, Peugeot Citroën, the French carmaker that has lagged behind other foreign groups in China, this month announced a joint venture with China Changan to supplement production capacity it already has in the country.
However, the terms of trade bet-ween developed and emerging market groups are changing, with power shifting to the emerging world. "We are seeing a bit of a pendulum shift. Five or 10 years ago, a multinational would tell you what to do . . . now working together is a true joint venture," says McKinsey's Mr Kshirsagar.
Cross-border deals are not easy. First, timing is crucial as companies that made big-ticket acquisitions just before the crisis found to their cost - notably Tata, India's biggest business group. In 2006-08, it bought Corus, the European steel group, for £6.7bn in India's largest foreign acquisition; and Jaguar Land Rover, the UK carmaker, for $2.5bn. The assets plummeted in value during the recession, leaving Tata managers struggling to restructure their acquisitions.
Next, the cultural gaps between emerging economy owners persist. Chinese managers feel as alien on the Tyne in north-east England as western executives do on the Yangtse. According to Tarun Khanna and Krishna Palepu, authors of Winning in Emerging Markets, a study published last month: "Securing and instilling global standards and capabilities throughout an emerging markets-based organisation is a difficult, long-term task."
Finally, there can be political barriers. Chinese state-controlled companies have run into trouble in the US over perceived political and security risks. A $2.2bn bid for 3Com, a US network technology company, from Bain Capital and Huawei, the Chinese telecoms equipment-maker, failed in 2008 when Washington objected. In Europe, the ambitions of Russian state-run energy group Gazprom to expand into the European Union have been contained by political concerns.
But as Japanese companies found 25 years, ago these barriers can be overcome. Even before the crisis the corporate order was changing, with companies from China, India, Brazil and other emerging economies forging ahead in global industries. Their advance has now become a charge.
Additional reporting by Geoff Dyer in Beijing, James Lamont in New Delhi, Kevin Brown in Singapore, Richard Lapper in Johannesburg, Adam Thomson in Mexico City and Jonathan Wheatley in São Paulo
Policy rates ready to rise in emerging countries
12/05/2010 | By Manoj Pradhan
Emerging market central banks are poised to reverse the monetary stimulus measures taken to boost their economies, but there could be surprises on which will be the earliest – and most aggressive – movers, according to Manoj Pradhan, economist at Morgan Stanley.
He believes Asia ex-Japan, for all its economic outperformance, is in no hurry to tighten, with the notable exception of India.
"Central banks in the region are balancing the persistent downside risks to a sustainable recovery in many G10 economies against strong domestic growth," he says.
"Even India's policy moves have so far been softer than we expected.
"China has the luxury of taking monetary policy slowly to neutral, in spite of its strong growth, due to a benign inflation outlook."
At the top of Morgan Stanley's rankings, which reflect the overall stance of monetary policy rather than a simple comparison of how soon policy rates will rise, are Latin America, central and eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa.
"The central bank of Brazil has shown its appetite for aggression with a 75-basis-point rate hike on April 28. We see another 325bp by the first quarter of next year.
"The other big contender is Chile, where we expect a total rise of 450bp in the policy rate by the second quarter of 2011."
Morgan Stanley sees Turkey raising rates by 150bp in the fourth quarter of this year.
Germany, France May Compromise AAA Ratings on European Union `Ponzi Game'
By John Glover - May 11, 2010
Germany and France are among top- rated euro-area states that may compromise their AAA grades by standing behind the debts of weaker members with their 750 billion-euro ($955 billion) stabilization fund.
The package is "making debt profiles deteriorate, potentially damaging the ratings of core sovereigns," said Stefan Kolek, a strategist at UniCredit SpA in Munich. "It's a kind of Ponzi game at the highest level."
The unprecedented loan package was designed by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund to halt a sovereign- debt crisis that threatened to push Greece, Portugal and Spain into default and shatter confidence in the euro. As part of the support plan, Germany's Bundesbank, the Bank of France and the Bank of Italy started buying government bonds yesterday.
Bonds of Portugal, Spain and other deficit-plagued nations on Europe's periphery soared yesterday and bunds -- the safe haven for holders of European government bonds -- weakened as the threat of a Greek default receded. The cost of insuring against sovereign losses using credit-default swaps tumbled yesterday, with contracts on Greece sliding 370 basis points, their biggest one-day decline, to 577, according to CMA DataVision.
The average Standard & Poor's rating for the five biggest countries using the euro is AA-, three levels below the top, without adjusting for size, according to Gary Jenkins, a strategist at Evolution Securities Ltd. in London. After Germany and France, the largest top-rated nations that use the common currency are the Netherlands, Austria and Finland.
'Another Look'
"The fact that they've made clear that there will be no defaults, plus the sheer size of the fund, may make S&P take another look at all the ratings," Jenkins said. "At least, it should do."
S&P officials in London didn't respond to a phone call seeking comment.
Credit swaps on Greece declined again today, dropping to 562.5 basis points, CMA prices show. Italy fell 2 to 155 and Spain was 2 basis points lower at 172.5. Swaps on Portugal increased 6 basis points to 260.5, according to CMA.
The euro weakened 0.7 percent against the dollar to $1.2685, erasing yesterday's gains.
The stabilization fund risks creating "more debt instead of cutting debt, as it obliges EU countries to buy troubled debt from member states," said Kolek.
Moral Hazard
The rescue package, which may be a first step toward quantitative easing, may compromise the independence of the European Central Bank, according to Jim Reid, head of fundamental strategy at Deutsche Bank AG in London. It's also part of a process that is increasing so-called moral hazard "exponentially," he wrote in a note to clients.
The package "is not particularly pro-growth," Reid wrote in the note. It may "be looked back on as a landmark day for the ECB. Their total independence may now be increasingly questioned."
As well as the risk of hindering growth, by reducing the likelihood the euro area's weaker members will default, the stabilization fund may slow down fiscal consolidation in the stronger members, according to Eric Sharper, an analyst at Credit Agricole SA in Paris.
"This raises the possibility that stronger EU members, with more financial flexibility and under less scrutiny, will show less urgency in their own deficit-reduction programs," he wrote in a note.
IMF's Reach Spreads to Western Europe
MAY 11, 2010 | By BOB DAVIS
WASHINGTON—Within a month, the International Monetary Fund has moved from a euro-zone pariah to an essential institution whose blessing is necessary for euro-zone countries that need rescue packages.
"Only weeks ago, there was serious question of what the role of the IMF would be in the euro zone," said the IMF's deputy managing director, John Lipsky. "That role has now been clarified."
The European Union and its euro-zone members said on Sunday that any future bailout would occur only in the "context of joint EU/IMF support," and would require the IMF to approve a program of "strong conditionality," according to an agreement by EU finance ministers.
That's IMF lingo for saying that the IMF would have to approve any loan for a troubled EU country and would require that a borrower adopt tough economic policies to get its house in order. The IMF and EU would then jointly police the loan to see that those conditions were being met before more money is disbursed.
"This is a template that will be used in the future," Mr. Lipsky said.
A powerful IMF role was a priority of U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, who lobbied his European counterparts in lengthy phone calls that IMF participation would give a European stabilization plan "credibility," said a participant. Over the weekend, European ministers agreed to increase what was initially conceived as a €100 billion ($127 billion) contribution by the IMF to €250 billion euros, as the size of the planned European funding increased, too.
The Europeans and the U.S. wanted to announce an overall number that was so large it would convince markets there were sufficient funds to handle any problem with European sovereign debt. In the end, the Europeans said they would chip in €500 billion and announced that the IMF would add another €250 billion. In dollars, the total was about $1 trillion.
"The $1 trillion number seems to be well-defined eye-catching number to stop a panic," said former IMF senior official Esward Prasad, who is now a researcher at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
But Mr. Lipsky said that the IMF hadn't made a €250 billion commitment to European nations—and couldn't because it only doles out money after individual countries ask for help. No euro-zone nation, other than Greece, has applied for an IMF loan. "We were trying to give an idea of scale without being excessively precise," he said. He called the €250 billion figure "illustrative."
Over the weekend, Mr. Prasad met with officials from the Group of 20 industrial and developing nations in Toronto who were debating economic policies ahead of a G-20 leaders' meeting in June. While representatives of the G-20 nations, which include India, China, Brazil and South Africa, were broadly supportive of IMF's efforts to help Europe—a big export market for developing nations—the scale of the aid is bound to deepen the divisions in the IMF between rich countries and poor, he said.
For decades, poor countries have complained that the IMF makes harsh demands of poor countries when they need to borrow, but doesn't press rich countries hard to change policies that can produce crises. In hallway conversation at the G-20 session, "there was significant concern about whether this was another example of unbalanced treatment between advanced countries and emerging markets," Mr. Prasad said.
More galling to the poor countries, he said, was that the IMF may tap loans made by India, China, Brazil and other developing countries to finance smaller European countries that run into trouble—even though European nations have resisted changes in IMF voting structure that would give big emerging markets a larger say in the IMF.
"That issue will come roaring back," Mr. Prasad said, once the economic situation in Europe settles down.
But Mr. Lipsky said such an interpretation was mistaken. Until recently, Germany, France and other euro-zone nations refused to consider loans from the IMF, arguing that the IMF loans were for developing countries, not wealthy European ones. Scrapping that view puts wealthy nations and developing ones on more similar footing, he said.
"Perhaps if there is a stigma [to borrowing from the IMF]," said Mr. Lipsky, "it's a positive stigma of enhancing the reputation" of a country that turns to the IMF for help.
Write to Bob Davis at bob.davis@wsj.com
For Bets on Euro Bailout, Buy Japan or Asia
MAY 11, 2010, 9:15 A.M. ET | By MICHAEL CASEY
NEW YORK -- There are two ways the European Union's colossal bailout for its crisis-stricken sovereign borrowers could go: well enough, or terribly. While it is too early to say which is more likely, each outcome produces the same trading strategy for the euro: sell it.
Win or lose, the European Central Bank's move to buy euro-zone sovereign bonds will push yields lower -- as already seen Monday -- weakening the euro as a result. The more nuanced question revolves around the other side of the trade. But even there, it's a simple, dichotomous choice. Either buy Asia ex-Japan, or buy Japan.
Should the €750 billion bailout fund for euro-zone governments and the ECB's about-face on buying their bonds turn out to be enough to stanch a mounting credit crunch in European lending markets, Asia, with the exception of Japan, will be a main beneficiary.
In this case, Asia ex-Japan refers to the currency of any emerging market or advanced economy exposed to the Asian region's impressive, China-led economic growth. It could be the South Korean won, the Australian dollar, or the currencies of commodity-producing countries like Brazil.
In this optimistic scenario, the extra liquidity from the European Union sustains the growth in those countries and further raises the inflationary pressures that are already pushing their central banks toward higher rates. The difference in yields to the euro zone grows further, making it even more attractive to bet against the common currency.
But the yen will be the key beneficiary if Monday's rally in world markets turns out to be merely a "dead-cat bounce" and stress returns to interbank markets.
As the low-yielding currency of a deflation-prone economy of high savers, the yen is entrenched as the world's funding currency. The yen carry trade and its corollary, the carry trade unwind, are alive and well. That was clear from the yen's startling gain of almost 8% last week amid the turmoil in markets.
When investors become globally risk averse, as they did last week, they sell out their positions in higher-yielding currencies and repay their low-yielding yen loans. It has happened repeatedly at similarly volatile moments ever since the Asian crisis of 1997, and it will happen again if Monday's calm doesn't last.
As for which trade will eventually pan out, there are elements in favor of both in this weekend's mega-announcement.
On the buy-Asia side, the package directly attacks the confidence issue that was eating away at euro-zone markets. By being so large and so comprehensive it destroys the impression left by dithering policy makers that they were incapable of rising above their domestic political concerns. This was a big-time, pro-integration bet, a clear commitment of these leaders' interest in not only preserving but strengthening the monetary union.
But on the buy-Japan side, it is worth remembering that all this money does nothing to fix the structural problems that led to the debt crises. Much more fiscal adjustment and economic pain is to come. Will euro-zone governments have the political will to enact it?
An even bigger doubt revolves around where the money is coming from. In effect, this package allows the euro zone's slightly less debt-laden nations to lend money to its slightly more debt-laden ones.
The main contributors -- Germany and France -- are of course far more robust than, say, Greece. Maybe the burden sharing will thus be painless enough to burnish the buy-Asia thesis.
But with the two euro-zone heavyweights' debt-to-gross domestic product ratios exceeding 80% -- well above the euro-zone treaty's 60% maximum -- and their fiscal deficits both exceeding the same treaty's 3%-to-GDP threshold, they are hardly ideal guarantors.
Michael Casey, a special writer with Dow Jones Newswires, writes a regular column about currencies and fixed-income markets. Previously he was Dow Jones Newswires' Buenos Aires bureau chief and before that, assistant managing editor for the U.S. economy, Treasurys and foreign-exchange group in New York.
Write to Michael Casey at michael.j.casey@dowjones.com
Portugal Telecom Rejects Offer for Brazilian Stake
By CHRIS V. NICHOLSON | Published: May 11, 2010
The Portugal Telecom board said late Monday that it had rejected an "unsolicited, binding and unconditional offer" from a partner, Telefónica, to buy its interest in their Brazilian joint venture, Vivo, for 5.7 billion euros ($7.3 billion).
The board called Vivo essential to Portugal Telecom's strategy, and the sale of its stake would undermine its "prospects for long-term growth." The offer expires on June 6.
In the meantime, Telefónica said it was considering an offer to buy 1.1 percent of Vivo's ordinary shares at a price about 80 percent of the value of each Vivo share owned by Brazilcel, adding another 600 million euros to its acquisition attempt.
Portugal Telecom's shares rose 12.67 percent in midmorning trading Tuesday, after leaping nearly 18.7 percent on Monday, before the offer was announced and amid a general surge after the European Union detailed its bailout plan for the sovereign debt crisis.
With 15.7 million users, Vivo is the biggest cellphone operator in Brazil, itself the largest market in South America. Portugal Telecom owns 50 percent of Brazilcel, a company based in the Netherlands that controls 60 percent of Vivo.
Vivo's user base grew 18.2 percent in the first quarter of 2010, compared to the same period a year earlier, according to Portugal Telecom's recent earnings report. Last week, the Portuguese company posted profit growth of 36.7 percent for the quarter, to 166 million euros, but said its earnings were being driven by its overseas units, and slipping at home.
Vivo's growth in operating revenue, while an impressive 25.5 percent year-on-year measured in euros, is only 3.7 percent in Brazilian reais, as the emerging country's currency has strengthened and Europe's declined.
Vivo shares rose 6.09 percent on Monday in São Paolo.
With its offer to Portugal Telecom, the Spanish giant Telefónica is pursuing a long-term plan to increase its share of the Brazilian market. It lost a bidding war to Vivendi last November to acquire GVT, another Brazilian carrier.
Telefónica shares fell Tuesday by 0.35 euros, or 3.49 percent, to 15.95 euros in Madrid.
In Greek Crisis, Some See Parallels to U.S. Debt Woes
By DAVID LEONHARDT | Published: May 11, 2010
It's easy to look at the protesters and the politicians in Greece — and at the other European countries with huge debts — and wonder why they don't get it. They have been enjoying more generous government benefits than they can afford. No mass rally and no bailout fund will change that. Only benefit cuts or tax increases can.
Yet in the back of your mind comes a nagging question: how different, really, is the United States?
The numbers on our federal debt are becoming frighteningly familiar. The debt is projected to equal 140 percent of gross domestic product within two decades. Add in the budget troubles of state governments, and the true shortfall grows even larger. Greece's debt, by comparison, equals about 115 percent of its G.D.P. today.
The United States will probably not face the same kind of crisis as Greece, for all sorts of reasons. But the basic problem is the same. Both countries have a bigger government than they're paying for. And politicians, spendthrift as some may be, are not the main source of the problem.
We, the people, are.
We have not figured out the kind of government we want. We're in favor of Medicare, Social Security, good schools, wide highways, a strong military — and low taxes. Dealing with this disconnect will be the central economic issue of the next decade, in Europe, Japan and this country.
Many people, including some who claim to be outraged by the deficit, still haven't acknowledged the disconnect. Just last weekend, Tea Party members helped deny Senator Robert Bennett, the Utah Republican, his party's nomination for his re-election campaign, in part because he had co-sponsored a health reform plan with a Democratic senator. Economists generally think the plan would have done more to reduce Medicare spending than the bill that passed. So, whatever its intentions, the Tea Party effectively punished Mr. Bennett for not being a big enough fan of big government.
Or consider the different fates of two parts of President Obama's agenda. Mr. Obama has unrealistically said that taxes do not need to rise on households making less than $250,000, and this position has come to be seen as an ironclad vow. He has also called for billions of dollars in sensible cuts to agribusiness subsidies, tax loopholes and the like. The news media and Congress have largely ignored these proposals.
The message seems clear: woe unto the politician — in Washington, Athens or London — who tries to go beyond platitudes and show some actual fiscal restraint.
This situation obviously can't continue, as Robert Greenstein, perhaps the leading liberal budget expert, points out. Mr. Greenstein's politics make him sympathetic to the worry that all the deficit talk will become an excuse to pull back on stimulus spending while unemployment remains high or to gut social programs. But he also knows the numbers well enough to understand that our Greece moment, whether it takes the form of a crisis or not, is coming.
"Most of the public thinks, 'If only the darn politicians could get their act together to cut waste, fraud and abuse, and to make tax avoidance go away and so on,' " Mr. Greenstein, head of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, says. "But the bottom line is, there really is no avoiding the hard choices."
For Greece and possibly other European countries, change will come from the outside. The countries lending the money for the Greek bailout — chiefly Germany — are demanding big cuts to the welfare state. Greek citizens will soon have a harder time retiring in their 40s.
Here in the United States, we're likely to have the chance to solve our problems before our lenders demand it. Those lenders continue see the American economy as a safe haven, thanks to our history of strong economic growth and political flexibility.
It is even possible that future growth will make the current deficit projections look too pessimistic. That sometimes happens when the economy is weak. In the wake of the early 1990s recession, for example, almost no one imagined that the budget would show a surplus by the end of the decade.
But the main issue isn't the near-term deficit — the one created by the recession, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Bush tax cuts and the Obama stimulus. The main issue is the long-term deficit.
As societies become richer, citizens tend to want better schools, better medical care and other government services. This country is following that pattern, but without paying the necessary taxes. That combination has us on a course to Greece-like debt.
As a rough estimate, the government will need to find spending cuts and tax increases equal to 7 to 10 percent of G.D.P. The longer we wait, the bigger the cuts will need to be (because of the accumulating interest costs).
Seven percent of G.D.P. is about $1 trillion today. In concrete terms, Medicare's entire budget is about $450 billion. The combined budgets of the Education, Energy, Homeland Security, Justice, Labor, State, Transportation and Veterans Affairs Departments are less than $600 billion.
This is why fixing the budget through spending cuts alone, as Congressional Republicans say they favor, would be so hard. Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin has a plan for doing so, and it includes big cuts to Social Security and the end of Medicare for anyone now under 55 years old. Other Republicans have generally refused to endorse the Ryan plan. Until that changes or until the party becomes open to new taxes, its deficit strategy will remain unclear.
Democrats have more of a strategy — raising taxes on the rich and using health reform to reduce the growth of Medicare spending — but it is not nearly sufficient.
What would be? A plan that included a little bit of everything, and then some: say, raising the retirement age; reducing the huge deductions for mortgage interest and health insurance; closing corporate tax loopholes; cutting pensions of some public workers, as Republican governors favor; scrapping wasteful military and space projects; doing more to hold down Medicare spending growth.
Much of this may be unpleasant. But by no means will it doom us to reduced living standards or even slow economic growth. We can still afford to spend more on Medicare — even more per person — than we do today, and more on education, the military and other areas, too. We just can't afford the unrealistic promises that the government has made. We need to make choices.
"It's not a matter of whether we have the resources to solve our problems," as Alan Krueger, the chief economist at the Treasury Department, says. "It's a matter of political will."
For now at least, our elected officials are hardly the only ones who lack that will.
Brazil makes push to work with Bay Area firms
Andrew S. Ross | Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Of the four emerging economic powers collectively known as BRIC - Brazil, Russia, India and China - Brazil has received the least attention in the Bay Area, despite being the world's fifth-largest country and eighth-largest economy.
"It just isn't on our radar," said an executive of a major Bay Area industry group.
Brazil is looking to change that, beginning today when a government delegation, led by the country's minister of science and technology, meets with prominent Bay Area companies to encourage investments and joint ventures, especially in the information technology and clean-tech areas.
"We want to show how Brazil is growing, and how the Bay Area should look at us as an alternative to China and Asia," said delegation member Augusto Gadelha, the ministry's information secretary. For interested Bay Area companies, incentives include reduced taxes, or even zero taxes. "We are preparing to offer competitive conditions," said Gadelha.
"Solid foundations": For those in the Bay Area whose economic radar hasn't been working of late, Brazil's economy, the largest in South America, expanded by 10 percent in the first quarter of 2010, outpacing China and India.
It's a boom "based on solid foundations," according to The Economist, noting the country's strength in manufacturing and natural resources, not the least of which are the recently discovered huge oil reserves in Brazilian waters, which San Ramon's Chevron Corp. started pumping last year.
Then there's Brazil's growing tech sector. IT spending this year is expected to total $95 billion, second only to China's $217 billion among the BRICs, according to preliminary numbers provided by IT research and consulting firm Gartner Inc. "Relative to their GDP, Brazil has the largest IT end-user spending among BRIC countries," said Luis Anavitarte, a vice president in Gartner's San Jose office.
Consumer demand, in a country of 200 million people, is rising rapidly, as tens of millions climb out of poverty. According to a Cisco Systems Inc. survey, the number of broadband connections increased 15 percent, t0 15 million, in the past 10 months, thanks mainly to government tax incentives for PC purchases.
"They're a large economy to begin with, and there's a feeling among many businesses that after years of stops and starts, the government there may finally have it right," said Sean Randolph, president of the Bay Area Economic Institute.
Adding capacity: Bay Area multinationals with finely tuned antennae, like Cisco, Intel Corp., Oracle Corp. and Hewlett-Packard Co., have had operations in Brazil for years, even decades. Intel Capital, the Santa Clara chipmaker's investment arm, created a $50 million venture capital fund there in 2006. Meanwhile, companies like AT&T Corp. are looking to expand their information and communications technology services, like teleconferencing, as U.S. multinationals' presence there increases.
"Brazil is a Latin American powerhouse," said Chris Boyer, assistant vice president for public policy in AT&T Corp's San Francisco office. "With the country growing so quickly, it's critical to add to our capacity there."
With Brazil second to the United States in ethanol production, a significant Bay Area newcomer is Emeryville biotech company Amyris, which has a pilot production plant and R&D facility in the Campinas region, outside Sao Paulo, often referred to as "Brazilian Silicon Valley." There, an Amyris subsidiary is working with Brazilian sugar cane to produce renewable diesel and jet fuel.
"Our goal is to encourage other bilateral scientific collaborations like this," said Evaldo Freire, head of trade promotion at the Brazilian consulate in San Francisco, who organized today's meeting.
"They're looking at lessons from Silicon Valley to create similar innovation centers in their country," said Jim Hock, a spokesman for TechNet, an influential industry lobbying group in Washington. "This is important for the Bay Area."
Pitfalls: Stephan Crawford, director of the San Francisco office of the U.S. Commerce Department, says there are "major overlaps" between the Bay Area and Brazil, especially in biofuels, IT and digital media, but also in architecture and design. But, Crawford warns, "It can be a challenging market. U.S. companies will need to know how to navigate in as big and complicated a country as Brazil. The learning curve could be steeper there."
Neither is Brazil yet the land of milk and honey. The incidence of poverty, income inequality, crime, lack of education and poor health remains high. For all its technological sophistication, Brazil ranks 61st in terms of "network readiness," according to the World Economic Forum's 2009-2010 Global Information Technology Report.
In January, Michael Kanaley, 41, a principal engineer at Palo Alto's Tibco Software Inc., was shot dead in a resort town near Rio de Janeiro. In November 2007, Cisco's vice president for Latin America was fired in connection with an alleged $832 million import and tax fraud scheme involving outside companies. Other Cisco employees were placed on administrative leave in a case that's still pending.
But the allure clearly outweighs the pitfalls. "We've been concentrating on Asia lately," said Jose Duenas, executive director of the East Bay Center for International Trade Development, who is attending today's get-together.
"We started sending trade missions to Brazil 10 years ago. This is a great opportunity to reconnect with that part of the world again."
Blogging at sfgate.com/ columns/bottomline. Facebook page at sfg.ly/doACKM. Tweeting @andrewsross. E-mail bottomline@sfchronicle.com.
Brazilian Real Falls as Optimism About European Bailout Wanes
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
May 11 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's real fell for the first time in three days amid concern a $1 trillion European bailout plan will limit economic growth in the region, sapping investor demand for higher-yielding, emerging-market assets.
The real slid 0.9 percent to 1.7870 per dollar at 8:15 a.m. New York time, from 1.7710 yesterday, when the currency jumped the most since November 2008 on optimism that the European bailout would stop a sovereign-debt crisis from spreading through the euro bloc.
Brazil's currency fell 5.4 percent last week in its biggest weekly drop since February 2009 on concern Greece, Portugal and Spain may have difficulty financing their budget deficits and derail the global economic recovery.
Stocks declined globally and the euro weakened today.
Europe's financial crisis won't affect Brazil's economic growth outlook, Finance Minister Guido Mantega said yesterday in Rio de Janeiro, adding that the crisis may cause some "turbulence" for Brazil's fixed-income market. Brazil's economy will grow between 5.5 percent and 6 percent this year, and inflation will slow to between 4.7 percent and 4.8 percent in the coming months, he said.
In the overnight interest-rate futures market, the yield on contracts due in January was unchanged at 11.09 percent.
--Editor: Glenn J. Kalinoski
Pimco Buys in Brazil, Canada and Australia
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Amid the European debt crisis, Pimco has been shopping on the Continent. The big mutual-fund company has been buying government bonds from Germany, France and the Netherlands. Pimco Global Bond Fund(PAIIX) now has 30% of its assets in Germany and 7% in France, sizable overweights for the mutual fund. Pimco Foreign Bond Fund(PFOAX) has similar allocations. Scott Mather, manager of both Pimco funds, has no doubt that all the European countries are headed for difficult times. But he argues that the bond markets of Northern Europe should remain healthy this year.
Mather says pension funds and other investors in Northern Europe hold much of the debt from Greece, Italy and other shaky economies. Worried about the outlook for Southern Europe, the northerners are dumping troubled bonds, shifting the cash into safer economies. That is pushing up German bond prices. "We expect the selling pressure to continue in Southern Europe, and the cash will be redeployed to Germany," Mather says.
European leaders over the weekend agreed to a $1 trillion rescue package for indebted nations, including Greece. The European Commission is aiming to avoid a major debt crisis, which sank stocks globally and depressed the euro. Yesterday, global equities rebounded, the euro rose and riskier assets including commodities rose.
Still, Pimco's Mather believes investors who shift to Germany are making the right move. The country's low inflation rate is bound to fall further. "Because of the crisis, Germany's growth rate is likely to be lower than people predicted just a few months ago," he says.
The slow growth should be welcomed by bond investors, Mather says. Bond prices can slip when rapid economic growth leads to inflation, which erodes the value of fixed-income investments.
Pimco's view on European bonds is worth considering. Led by star manager Bill Gross, the company regularly makes contrarian bets, and the market calls often have proved correct.
The crisis in Europe has prompted Pimco to rethink its position on U.S. Treasuries, Mather says. With the credit crisis unfolding a year ago, Mather had sizable positions in U.S. Treasuries. Those offered security at a time when the economic outlook seemed uncertain and interest rates appeared unlikely to rise.
The bet on Treasuries proved on target. Then, by the end of 2009, Pimco began moving away from Treasuries. With the economy healing, investors were buying riskier assets and selling Treasuries, pushing down their prices. When bond prices fall, the yields rise. And Treasury yields seemed poised to rise more since the Federal Reserve appeared likely to raise rates later in the year.
Then as the European turmoil intensified in recent weeks, investors once again began fleeing to the safety of Treasuries. That pushed up prices and lowered yields. To take advantage of the changed outlook, Pimco has been buying Treasuries.
Mather says the increasing global problems will encourage the Fed to postpone any rate hikes. While the Fed would like to raise the federal funds rate above the current level of near zero, the central bankers may fear that any hike could hurt the economy at a time when global problems could slow exports and limit job growth. "Any rate hike is more than a year away," Mather says.
With the economic outlook improving last year, Mather began buying corporate bonds. But lately he has sold corporates, which come with default risk, and shifted to sovereign bonds. His favorite holdings include issues from Australia and Canada. Those countries have benefitted from sales of commodities and sound government finances.
Mather says the markets have been pricing Australian bonds in anticipation of rate hikes by the country's central bank. But the bankers are likely to delay hikes now, he says. The 10-year Australian bonds currently yield around 6.25%, a rich payout compared to yields in the U.S.
While Mather typically focuses on high-quality bonds from the developed world, he recently took small positions in emerging markets, including Brazil, China and Korea. Those countries boast solid economies and low debt levels.
He is particularly keen on 3-year Brazilian sovereign bonds, which yield more than 12%. While some investors worry that the country could suffer from rising rates and inflation, Mather says the fears are exaggerated. "In many ways, Brazil is on sounder footing than almost all the developed countries," he says.
Brand new success for China's firms
By Andrew Moody (China Daily)| Updated: 2010-05-10 09:22
BEIJING - The likes of Google, Apple, Microsoft and McDonald's had better watch out.
Major Western brands are unlikely to be able to bestride the globe in the same way they have done over the past 100 years or more.
Many of the new brands of the future are as likely to come from emerging markets such as China, Brazil, Russia and India as from current developed markets.
According to the recent Brandz Top 100 Most Valuable Global Brands 2010 survey, produced by global market research and consulting firm Millward Brown, 13 of the world's leading 100 brands are from emerging countries, compared with just one four years ago when the survey was first produced.
China has seven in the top 100 with China Mobile heading the list in eighth position with a brand value of $52.6 billion, closely followed by ICBC in 11th spot, valued at $43.9 billion.
Other Chinese brands to make the list include Bank of China, China Construction Bank, PetroChina, Internet search engine company Baidu and China Merchants Bank.
The list also featured for the first time an Indian brand, ICICI, India's largest bank, as well as ones from Russia, Brazil and Mexico.
Some experts believe companies from emerging markets are making major inroads because they are learning how to harness new opportunities provided by the Internet, enabling them to target customers precisely using social networking sites and viral marketing techniques.
As a result they are stealing a march on some Western brand owners that are still wedded to traditional advertising and methods of marketing
The new technologies are enabling them to reach customers without the massive scale of investment normally required to achieve a global presence.
Martin Roll, chief executive of VentureRepublic, a brand consultancy based in Singapore, said companies from emerging markets were proving to be very successful in using the new technologies.
"The face of business in emerging markets is changing faster than one can blink one's eyes. Emerging market companies that used to be back-end workhorses, manufacturing consumer goods cheaply for Western companies, are slowly realizing the benefits of brands and innovation," he said.
"From a brand building angle, digital and new media are providing a much faster and cheaper means of building and sustaining brands in global markets. All in all, these developments are then in turn fostering new brands to think differently as the digital platforms are enablers for them."
Zhang Tianbing, partner in international management consultants AT Kearney in Shanghai, believes what is happening is fundamental.
"What you are seeing is something like a sudden change to the ecosystem. The new technology, however, is bringing about a major change to the economic system, where you are seeing a new species emerge. It is enabling emerging market brands to make a major advance," he said.
A Chinese company that has managed to establish a brand in overseas markets is telecommunications operator ZTE Corporation.
The company, which has 62,000 employees, 10,000 of them working abroad, supplies its products and services in around 140 countries.
Although very well known in its field, it supplies mainly in a business-to-business market.
Gu Yongcheng, general manager, corporate branding and communication, for ZTE Corporation, said there was a difference between establishing a brand in Asian markets and in Europe and North America.
"In emerging countries like in Asia and Africa we tried to establish our brand by selling high-quality and low-cost products," he said.
"The developed markets of Europe and North America impose higher requirements on our brand and we are focusing our efforts on enhancing our brand management capability right throughout the whole organization."
Gu said it was not necessarily easier for Chinese companies or those from emerging markets to build a business-to-business than a retail brand.
"Business-to-business and business-to-customer models run in quite different ways. Unfortunately, no Chinese enterprise has been successful in either," he said.
"To create world-class brands, Chinese companies need to shift completely from the traditional product-marketing concept to the brand marketing one, which requires a process of consistent brand building and continuous investment. This is something we are actively doing."
James B. Heimowitz, president and chief executive officer, North Asia, of global public relations consultancy Hill & Knowlton, based in Hong Kong, is skeptical that being able to use new technologies to communicate with customers has been behind the success of emerging market brands.
"I don't buy that technology is a leveler. Whatever technology enables you to do, if you want your brand to succeed you still have to get close to your customer. There is no substitute for that," he said
"If a company from an emerging market knows what is important to consumers in a particular market and what resonates with them, it will prove more important than whether the digital world is more cost-efficient or seen as more hip."
"It may be, however, that companies from emerging markets that are not so dependent on traditional channels of communication might be more open to what customers have to say and how they want to be communicated with."
One company that has been able to develop a worldwide brand is Brazilian company Sao Paulo Alpargatas, which makes the famous flip-flop shoes Havaianas.
It cleverly built its brand by getting celebrity endorsement such as film stars to wear its products at Oscar night parties.
It didn't begin exporting until 2001 but now competes head on with the major shoe brands. Around 22 million pairs are exported every year.
Dominique Turpin, professor of marketing and strategy at IMD, the international business school based in Lausanne, Switzerland, said the company demonstrated just what brands from emerging markets could achieve.
"At the center of Havaianas' success was the formula used by most other successful new brands, wherever they are based - a dedicated, persistent and committed group of people created an innovative brand that is genuinely meaningful to customers," he said.
Turpin agreed new technologies did enable brands from emerging market countries to promote their brands but they are insufficient on their own.
"Of course you can use viral marketing and other forms of communication but there is a minimum amount of traditional communication that you need to have, whether it is advertising or public relations," he said.
"The only way you can create awareness of a product or service is to put a bit of money behind it."
Roll at VentureRepublic said emerging market brand owners are always having to some extent play Western companies at their own game.
"Marketing is actually a Western concept. It is largely an American idea and I think some of the best marketers you find worldwide come out of America for very good reasons. To be successful, you have certainly got to be professional," he said.
Roll said many Asian companies still fail to see the importance of brand marketing, regarding it as something of an add-on rather than being core to the entire proposition.
"They really need to change their mindset that branding is not an appendix or a luxury but a necessity that is going to be one of the key drivers of your business," he said.
He added one of the problems in Asia, in particular, is that businesses tend to be started by technocrats or people with a financial background, rather than with any experience of marketing.
"They tend to be very manufacturing driven as a result. This kind of experience serves you very well when it comes to running tight supply chains but it doesn't help in finding out what resonates with global customers," he said.
He added the real Asian success stories such as Korean electronics manufacturer Samsung have managed to dominate global markets because they have grasped the importance of investing in marketing.
"In Samsung you find the chief marketing officer at the very highest level within the organization. Marketing people do need to be elevated to the boardroom and not hidden somewhere in the third or fourth level of the organization," he said.
Turpin at IMD said that without this sort of focus on marketing, brands from emerging markets are likely to be seen as second rate and encounter a lot of prejudice.
"If in a lucky dip you won a free trip to Hawaii and had the choice between flying with Lufthansa or, say, Azerbaijan Airlines, which one would you pick? Even for people who haven't flown with Azerbaijan Airlines a certain stereotype comes to mind," he said.
"This is something China comes up against with people thinking their goods are cheap and relatively low quality. It is something the Japanese and Korean companies whose products were once thought of in this way have managed to overcome over time," he said.
Heimowitz at Hill & Knowlton said one of the difficulties for Chinese companies was dealing with international perceptions about quality control that can have an impact on all brands.
"Companies are still having to rebuild from problems China had a year or two ago with contaminants in milk and other products," he said.
"I think this impacts more on China food products than for companies like ZTE or Haier, for example."
He is confident Chinese brands will be able to overcome negative perceptions over time.
"Once consumers become familiar with Chinese products and Chinese manufacturers become more consistent in their ability to manufacture and distribute quality products then China will move up the quality and brand chain as well," he said.
Heimowitz said whatever form of communications they used to raise the profile of their brands, those from emerging markets had many advantages over established western companies.
"They can start from a blank sheet of paper almost. If you were an established middle market cosmetics brand, for example, it is very difficult to convince people you are a luxury brand. As a Chinese brand going into a particular market you have a chance to position yourself where you like so long as you can stand behind the claim and deliver on it," he said.
Roll at VentureRepublic believes brands from emerging markets will use all the communication methods at their disposal to become increasingly global players over the next few years.
"Emerging market companies are increasingly looking at building and sustaining their own brands," he said.
Protesta brasileña por el freno a la importación de alimentos
Lo hizo la poderosa cámara industrial FIESP, además de la asociación de productores rurales y los fabricantes del sector. Reaccionaron así a las restricciones que impulsa el secretario Moreno. Y señalaron que Lula podría tomar represalias.
12/05/2010 | Por: Eleonora Gosman
La reedición de disputas comerciales con Brasil, originadas en políticas del gobierno argentino, volvió a empastar las relaciones entre ambos socios. Empresarios brasileños, con la poderosa Federación de Industrias de San Pablo a la cabeza, ayer no ahorraron protestas contra las medidas restrictivas que impulsa el secretario de Comercio Guillermo Moreno, y que podrían trabar las exportaciones de productos alimenticios brasileños. "Contrarían los permanentes esfuerzos para la construcción de un diálogo positivo en las relaciones entre los dos países" advirtió la FIESP.
La entidad, que alberga a 37% del PBI industrial brasileño, se quejó que las medidas en cuestión violarían el acuerdo entre los presidentes Lula da Silva y Cristina Kirchner adoptados en noviembre pasado. Hasta anoche, el gobierno de Lula da Silva se mantenía en silencio. Tanto en Itamaraty (sede de la diplomacia brasileña) como en el ministerio de Desarrollo e Industria conducido por Miguel Jorge, dijeron que habían sido notificados sobre ninguna medida restrictiva.
La historia se inició la semana pasada cuando Moreno se reunió con los supermercados argentinos para indicar que a partir de junio su secretaría empezará a controlar las importaciones de aquellos alimentos que se produzcan en la Argentina. La justificativa fue la crisis en Grecia y la devaluación del euro que tornaría competitivos una amplia lista de productos procedentes de la Unión Europea. Pero la medida puede alcanzar al vecino brasileño, al menos a una variedad de bienes alimenticios producidos en este país. En los hechos, y según datos de la consultora Abeceb.com, la importación de alimentos preparados de todo el mundo representa tan sólo un 1,6% del total de las importaciones del país. Pero el 45% de esos productos viene de Brasil.
Las restricciones valdrán para un conjunto de envasados que incluyen desde fideos a salsas, cervezas, duraznos al natural, jamones, y aceites. Pero así como en Brasilia no hubo hasta ahora disposición a reaccionar en forma abierta, los privados tomaron el lugar. La Confederación Nacional de Agricultura (CNA) sostuvo que "si Argentina traba las exportaciones brasileñas de alimentos, será una aberración del Mercosur". El gobierno de Lula cuenta con herramientas para las represalias, recordó Carlos Sperotto, titular de la entidad. También fue duro el presidente de la Asociación Brasileña de la Industria de Alimentos, Edmundo Klotz, cuando sostuvo que "es un atentado a las reglas del Mercosur y merece una atención especial del gobierno brasileño". No obstante, confió en que la pelea entre ambos países se dirimirá en una negociación.
La FIESP alertó sobre la "falta de transparencia" y al "trato discriminatorio" que puede derivarse de la medida. Quienes contaron el problema a la entidad fueron los empresarios del sector involucrado, ya que no hubo comunicación oficial del gobierno argentino al gobierno brasileño tal como se había decidido a final del año pasado. Para Lula, la situación tiene condimentos políticos.
El actual presidente finaliza su mando este año y quiere garantizar la continuidad de su coalición partidaria a través de su candidata Dilma Rousseff. No podría permanecer inactivo frente a un candidato opositor como José Serra, ex gobernador de San Pablo, que ha reiterado hace unos días su predisposición negativa al Mercosur en los términos en que existe hoy. En ese sentido, las acciones del gobierno argentino, de concretarse las nuevas medidas restrictivas, no harían más que alentar ese discurso y pondría a Lula ante una disyuntiva incómoda. Sobre todo si se piensa que Brasil fue uno de los países que operó a favor del nombramiento de Néstor Kirchner como presidente de Unasur.
Ofensiva diplomática contra el freno a los alimentos importados
Las restricciones del Gobierno serán analizadas mañana por agregados comerciales europeos
12/05/2010 | José Crettaz | LA NACION
El freno a la importación de alimentos que comenzará a aplicar el Gobierno en junio no le saldrá gratis al comercio exterior argentino. Al menos, eso es lo que pronostican fuentes empresariales de Brasil, uno de los países más afectados por la medida, que ya habla de aplicar "reciprocidad" para los productos nacionales en ese mercado.
Voceros del gobierno brasileño dijeron ayer al diario O Estado de São Paulo que "si la medida entra en vigor, habrá represalias comerciales contra la Argentina en los productos similares a los alcanzados por las restricciones". Según una fuente diplomática argentina, "los brasileños no son de reacciones inmediatas, pero cuando reaccionan lo hacen duramente". El funcionario recordó cuando, hace pocos meses, la Argentina aplicó licencias de importación a algunos productos brasileños y ese país respondió semanas después con la paralización de camiones con mercaderías argentinas en la frontera.
Por otro lado, el clima de inquietud entre los representantes comerciales extranjeros se acentuó ayer tras las declaraciones que el ministro de Economía, Amado Boudou, hizo en Nueva York: "Esto de ser buenitos y abrirnos al mundo y después no poder exportar limones a los Estados Unidos es una idea romántica, pero muy ingenua", lanzó, ante una consulta específica sobre el cierre de las importaciones de alimentos no frescos.
Los consejeros económicos de las embajadas de países integrantes de la Unión Europea (UE) se reunirán hoy para analizar el impacto de la decisión entre sus respectivas empresas. En ese grupo, los más afectados son España e Italia.
El tema también podría quedar incluido en la visita que los embajadores de la UE harán mañana a la Comisión de Relaciones Exteriores de la Cámara de Diputados, que preside Alfredo Atanasof (PJ Federal); esa reunión había sido acordada mucho antes de que se conociera el cambio en la normativa. La medida comercial adoptada por la administración Kirchner se conoce a pocos días de anunciarse la reapertura de negociaciones para la liberalización del comercio entre el Mercosur y la Unión Europea. Esa mesa de negociaciones estuvo paralizada durante seis años.
El más afectado
En Brasil afirman que un entredicho comercial en el capítulo de los alimentos afectaría más a la Argentina que a su principal socio comercial. Según datos de la consultora abeceb.com, la Argentina exporta cuatro veces más de lo que importa en los rubros afectados, por lo cual las represalias que podrían aplicarse podrían ser mucho más drásticas. Hacia Brasil se destina el 20% de este tipo de alimentos. En el primer trimestre de 2010, las ventas alcanzaron los US$ 190 millones. En tanto, Brasil abastece el 82% del cacao y el 74% del café y té que importa la Argentina. Además, el país vecino provee de preparaciones alimenticias diversas, como conserva de tomate y choclo en grano enlatado, entre otras.
"Es un atentado contra las reglas del Mercosur. El sector de los alimentos es el principal generador de superávit para la balanza comercial brasileña y merece una atención especial de nuestro gobierno", advirtió el presidente de la Asociación Brasileña de la Industria de los Alimentos (ABIA), Edmundo Klotz. Para el director de Relaciones Internacionales de la Confederación de Agricultura y Ganadería de Brasil, "si la Argentina sigue adelante con esta medida será una aberración en el Mercosur".
La Administración Nacional de Medicamentos, Alimentos y Tecnología Médica (Anmat) hizo pública ayer la nota enviada semanas atrás por el secretario de Comercio Interior, Guillermo Moreno. Además, el organismo, del que depende el Instituto Nacional de Alimentos (INAL), con el que Moreno prevé cerrar las importaciones, se desvinculó de las intenciones del funcionario. La Anmat recordó que su papel "es específicamente técnico", y que consiste en "evaluar la condición sanitaria de los productos de su competencia, entre ellos, los alimentos importados, siendo la Secretaría de Comercio quien define cuáles ingresan al país".
Por esta operatoria, según la Cámara de Importadores (CIRA), hay embarques frenados en el puerto. Por eso, una decena de directivos de segunda línea y socios de esa cámara fueron recibidos ayer por el interventor en la Anmat, Carlos Chiale, y la directora del INAL, María Luz Martínez, que explicaron cómo funciona ahora lo que antes era un trámite estrictamente técnico. "Vamos a acudir a la autoridad de aplicación en el comercio exterior, que es la ministra de Industria y Turismo, Débora Giorgi, y al propio secretario de Comercio Interior", señaló ayer el presidente de la CIRA, Diego Pérez Santisteban.
Invertirán US$ 300 millones en la producción de etanol
La firma GreenPampas construirá una planta para procesar un millón de toneladas del cereal
12/05/2010 | Fernando Bertello | LA NACION
La era de los biocombustibles levanta temperatura en la Argentina y lo hace con millonarias inversiones. GreenPampas, una empresa creada por Upstream, firma de servicios para compañías petroleras vinculadas con la exploración, desarrolló un ambicioso proyecto para la producción de etanol -utilizado para el corte con nafta- sobre la base del cultivo de maíz. La iniciativa contempla el desembolso de 300 millones de dólares.
En concreto, la inversión incluye la construcción de una planta para procesar un millón de toneladas de maíz y producir 378 millones de litros de etanol por año. Pero además abarca un puerto, un centro de acopio y almacenaje y el desarrollo de servicios de infraestructura.
En estos momentos, la firma evalúa el lugar de radicación de ese emprendimiento, que, según adelantó Roberto Federico Aguirre, vicepresidente de GreenPampas, estará emplazado en la costa del río Paraná.
La empresa está analizando si se radica sobre el margen del río en la provincia de Buenos Aires o en Santa Fe. "El gobierno de Santa Fe ya nos mostró su interés", contó.
A gran escala
De todos modos, la compañía tiene fecha para empezar a construir la planta. "Si todo va bien, la construcción comenzará en el primer semestre de 2011", comentó Aguirre a LA NACION. El ejecutivo disertó ayer en un panel de biocombustibles del Congreso Maizar 2010, organizado por la Asociación Maíz y Sorgo Argentinos (Maizar), y contó la iniciativa de la empresa. Para este emprendimiento, la compañía captó a inversores privados e institucionales argentinos y europeos.
Con esta inversión, se trataría de la primera planta a gran escala para la producción de etanol sobre la base de maíz y, eventualmente, también con sorgo. Por el volumen estimado para procesar, un millón de toneladas por año, la firma pasaría a procesar para etanol el equivalente al 5% de la producción de maíz de la Argentina.
Con la entrada en vigor de la ley de combustibles, que establece el corte del gasoil y las naftas con un 5% de biodiésel y etanol, respectivamente, hasta el momento el Gobierno sólo otorgó cupo fiscal para etanol para el mercado interno a los productores de etanol de caña, no maíz. Casi una decena de ingenios que accedieron a ese beneficio no alcanzarán a cubrir este año, con una oferta de unos 220.000 metros cúbicos, una demanda de casi 300.000 metros cúbicos.
Con todo, desde la firma estiman que un 80% de su producción estará destinada para el mercado externo y el 20% restante para el mercado interno. Como dato llamativo, destacan que hoy para expandir la producción de etanol un proyecto de estas características resulta más barato hacerlo en la Argentina antes que en Brasil.
Según Aguirre, entre otros puntos clave, aquí hay disponibilidad de materia prima y el 80% de la producción de maíz se realiza en un radio de 300 kilómetros de los puertos rosarinos. En Brasil, en cambio, los centros de producción y consumo están más alejados con distancias de hasta 900 kilómetros entre un punto y otro. Si aquí todo el proyecto costará US$ 300 millones, en el vecino país el costo treparía a US$ 450 millones.
"La Argentina puede ser un cluster de etanol muy grande y convertirse en exportador", pronosticó Martín Fraguío, director ejecutivo de Maizar.
En los Estados Unidos, de una cosecha de 331,01 millones de toneladas en la última campaña, se estima que más de 110 millones de toneladas ya van para producir etanol. Eso equivale a cinco veces la cosecha argentina del cereal.
ESTE AÑO INVERTIRÁ U$S 10 MILLONES EN LA NUEVA OPERACIÓN
Empresas brasileñas siguen de compras y ahora se quedan con la filial argentina de Umbro
Grupo Dass, que entre otros opera la marca Fila en la región, compró la pata local de la etiqueta inglesa. Se suma así a Vulcabras (Reebook) y Sao Pablo Alpargatas (Topper)
MATÍAS BONELLI Buenos Aires () | Miércoles 12 de mayo de 2010
Los empresarios del calzado brasileños siguen de shopping en la Argentina. Luego de la avanzada protagonizada por Vulcabrás y Sao Pablo Alpargatas, ahora se suma Grupo Dass, que se acaba de quedar con la operación de Umbro Argentina, aunque no se dieron a conocer ni las cifras de la operación, ni la composición accionaria de la nueva empresa. Sin embargo, la firma de Brasil se quedará con una participación mayoritaria de las acciones.
De este modo, la compañía brasileña amplía su presencia en el país, ya que en 2008 se había quedado con Fila Argentina, al comprar los derechos para explotar la marca en América latina.
Lo que ahora quedó conformado como Dass Argentina cerró 2009 con una facturación de 40 millones de dólares.
Brian Handley, que estaba a cargo de la filial local de Umbro y que ahora será el presidente de Dass Argentina, sostuvo que como parte del plan inicial para impulsar ambas marcas se invertirán este año u$s 10 millones, de los cuales la mitad se volcará a la planta que la empresa tiene en la ciudad misionera de El Dorado, en tanto que el resto al sistema de comercialización.
Brian Handley, ex presidente de Umbro Argentina y ahora a cargo de Dass Argentina, dijo que "mantendremos el target al que apuntan hoy las marcas. Umbro tendrá su centro en el fútbol, mientras que Fila tendrá como destino el tenis y el running, nichos ya explotados por esas etiquetas". A esto se le suma Tryon también propiedad del conglomerado brasileño, enfocada en el segmento del tiempo libre.
Esto quiere decir que ninguna de las marcas desaparece, aunque si deja de existir Umbro Argentina como compañía.
Hoy, el negocio de Dass Argentina (sumando la actividad de Umbro, Fila y Tyron), está representado en un 70% por el rubro calzado, en tanto que un 20% corre por cuenta de la indumentaria y el 10% restante a accesorios.
Entre los objetivo del grupo brasileño figura el incremento de la mano de obra local. Hoy el 50% de lo producido es made in El Dorado, mientras que esperan alcanzar el 60% para fin de año.
La relación entre el Grupo Dass y Umbro Argentina no es nueva. Durante los últimos años los brasileños –dueños de Umbro en Brasil– le vendieron calzados a la filial local.
Las expectativas que la empresa de capitales brasileños tiene sobre este nuevo proyecto son positivas. Vilson Hermes, presidente del Grup Dass, precisó que para este año la empresa registrará un crecimiento del 15% en América latina, y del 20% en la Argentina.
Crece la producción en Brasil
Miércoles 12 de mayo de 2010
n Brasil se encamina a una excelente zafra de azúcar para esta campaña. Hasta fines de abril, los ingenios azucareros del centro sur del país –región que concentra el 90% de la producción– alcanzaron las 2,5 millones de toneladas de azúcar, es decir, 47% más que lo verificado al final del primer mes de la temporada de molienda 2009/10. Así lo indicó Unica, la asociación del sector.
El rendimiento industrial promedio de la nueva cosecha de caña mejoró a 121,4 kilos de sacarosa recuperable por tonelada de caña durante la segunda mitad de abril, desde 113,8 kilos recuperables por tonelada, afirmó Unica.
Parte de la fuerza detrás de la mejora fue el clima más seco del último tiempo, que permite a la caña concentrar sus azúcares en los tallos, haciendo más fácil el trabajo de producción de ingenios azucareros.
Ahora el "megaplan" llega desde Brasil y empresarios temen aluvión importador
El país vecino presentó un paquete de medidas para fomentar exportaciones. Estiman que se sumarán entre 5.000 y 10.000 nuevas compañías. En Argentina preocupa que la mayor ventaja competitiva que tendrán, por los menores tributos y créditos con bajas tasas de interés, repercuta en el mercado local
A pesar de que Brasil fue el primer país de la región en salir de la crisis y que para este año estiman una tasa de crecimiento de su economía del 7%, aún deben lidiar con un problema que opaca la buena performance a nivel macro que exhibe el país vecino: la competitividad cambiaria.
No es para menos: en lo que va del gobierno de Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, que en 2007 inició su segundo mandato, la moneda brasileña ya se apreció casi un 100%.
Y si bien las perspectivas indican que este año el real culminará con una devaluación, ésta no alcanzaría para darle el aire suficiente a los exportadores de ese país, dado que el nivel apenas llegaría a un 10% (Ver nota: El real pone nerviosos a los empresarios y analistas dicen qué precio tendrá a fin de año)
Y el Gobierno ya comenzó a sentir en carne propia esta menor competitividad, que está provocando un fuerte déficit de la cuenta corriente brasileña, según destacó el diario Valor, producto de la aceleración de las importaciones en la post crisis. La previsión del Ministerio de Hacienda, es que en 2010 se alcanzará un déficit de 42.000 millones de dólares, equivalente a más de 2 puntos del PBI.
En este contexto, el gobierno de Lula anunció hace pocos días el lanzamiento de un megapaquete para fomentar el "made in Brasil" en el mundo y que ya puso en alerta a numerosos sectores productivos de la Argentina.
"Hoy vivimos una crisis internacional en el exterior. Acá no tenemos crisis, pero eso agudiza la competencia y tenemos que adoptar siempre medidas para que la producción brasileña sea más competitiva", expresó recientemente el ministro de Hacienda del país vecino, Guido Mantega.
Entre otras medidas, el megaplan contempla:
- Crear un fondo garantizador de comercio exterior, que operará en una etapa inicial con reservas de 12.000 millones de reales (unos 6.800 millones de dólares) para que los exportadores de ese país cuenten con respaldo al salir al exterior.
- Acelerar la devolución de parte de los tributos pagados por empresas que destinen a mercados externos más del 30 por ciento de su producción. Ese proceso, que hoy llega a tardar cinco años, será abreviado a 30 días.
- El paquete de medidas incluye además la creación de una línea de crédito de 7.000 millones de reales (unos 3.980 millones de dólares) para las exportaciones de bienes de consumo. La financiación será concedida por el Banco de Desarrollo de Brasil (BNDES), a tasas de interés de entre un siete y un ocho por ciento anual.
- Además, el Gobierno va a permitir que las micro y pequeñas empresas, registradas en el sistema de tributación simple (equivalente al Monotributo), excluyan sus exportaciones del límite máximo permitido. De esta forma, las firmas podrán registrar una facturación de hasta 2,4 millones de reales en el mercado interno y el mismo valor en concepto de exportaciones sin tener que saltar de categoría y pagar más impuestos.
- Otra medida que dará competitividad y, además, podrá afectar a los exportadores argentinos es que se diseñará un sistema mediante el cual las exportaciones realizadas el año anterior otorgarán un derecho para comprar insumos brasileños con alícuota cero de impuestos, un beneficio similar al que existía para insumos importados.
- Por último, el gobierno va a priorizar en su sistema de compras, que mueve unos 56.000 millones de reales, a los productos con el sello brasileño.
En este contexto, desde sus oficinas de San Pablo, el consultor internacional Gustavo Segré, sostuvo que "el plan de beneficios para exportadores generó muy buenas expectativas, porque implica que recuperarán parte de la competitividad perdida por el tipo de cambio".
Según el experto, "en general se busca beneficiar al exportador de manufacturas".
Cabe destacar que en Brasil hoy por hoy salen al mundo unas 25.000 empresas brasileñas.
Sin embargo, este número podría cambiar rápidamente. Según Segre, de las 3.000.000 de empresas –sumando microemprendimientos- que hay en el país, unas 500.000 tienen condiciones para exportar.
"Con que entre el 1 y el 2% de ese total comiencen a venderle al exterior gracias a estos beneficios, estamos hablando de más de 5.000 compañías, es decir, el 20% de las que hoy están exportando", disparó el experto.
De este modo, si las medidas finalmente prosperan, Brasil podría incorporar el equivalente a la mitad de la plantilla de exportadores argentinos, que llega a las 14.000 firmas.
La visión local
Estos anuncios tienen lugar en momentos en que la Argentina tiene amplias ventajas competitivas gracias a la diferencia de tipo de cambio.
En efecto, actualmente, cada real equivale a 2,35 pesos argentinos, es decir, que los productos argentinos son un 135% más competitivos que hace diez años.
Sin embargo, para fin de año, con un dólar que en el plano doméstico avanzaría apenas unos centavos más y una inflación cercana al 25%, el tipo de cambio real con respecto a Brasil se ubicaría en 2,25 pesos por real.
De este modo, de confirmarse estos valores, en 2010 la Argentina habría perdido un 10% de competitividad en relación al país vecino. Esto, sin sumar los efectos directos que generaría el plan de exportaciones.
En este contexto, Hugo Ganim, presidente de la Cámara de Fabricantes de Artefactos de Gas (Cafagas), que nuclea a empresas como Orbis, Longvie y Gafa, alertó que "estos planes hay que seguirlos muy de cerca, porque le pueden hacer mucho daño a la industria argentina. Todo esto puede derivar en una competencia muy fuerte de cara al futuro mientras sigamos teniendo esta escasez de financiamiento".
Al respecto, el directivo llamó a continuar protegiendo la industria "porque de a poco logramos que la participación de los productos argentinos gane terreno, dejando atrás las peores épocas, cuando más de la mitad de lo que se vendía era de origen brasileño".
"Ellos tienen una industria poderosísima y, con que se vuelvan un poco más competitivos, a nosotros nos puede perjudicar enormemente", recalcó.
Por su parte, un industrial autopartista que pidió reserva de identidad, también se mostró preocupado: "Vamos a monitorear cómo avanza este plan".
"Brasil siempre tiene una estrategia exportadora agresiva y este paquete de medidas puede llevar a prácticas no autorizadas por la Organización Mundial del Comercio. No descartamos que, para obtener más beneficios impositivos y crediticios, los exportadores brasileños salgan a vender aún por debajo de sus costos, a precios de dumping. Hay que estar alertas para que no haya competencia desleal", disparó.
El empresario, que exporta a más de 20 países, recalcó que "esto puede ser el inicio de una nueva guerra comercial con Brasil".
Por su parte, Raúl Zylbersztein, secretario general de la Confederación General Empresaria de la República Argentina (CGERA) destacó que "todas las medidas que hagan más eficiente a una industria que compite con nosotros nos va a generar un impacto negativo fuerte. Tenemos que estar preparados".
"El Estado brasileño no escatima recursos, lanza cañonazos para hacer a su industria más competitiva", aseguró el dirigente, quien alertó que "esto claramente puede aumentar la brecha en la captación de inversión extranjera".
En este contexto, se quejó de que "muchas de estas iniciativas son subsidios disfrazados, que no están contemplados por la legislación internacional. Pero no les importa, ellos lo aplican y están dispuestos a dar pelea. Tenemos que estar alerta. Cada una de estas medidas las estamos analizando, especialmente en los rubros donde más perjudican a la industria vecina".
Frente a estos temores, Raúl Ochoa, ex subsecretario de Comercio Internacional, aseguró que "este plan se lanzó para solucionar el tema del tipo de cambio, pero puede suceder que perjudique a algunas empresas argentinas que compiten por el mercado interno".
Cabe destacar que este miedo de los empresarios está sustentado también en que el Gobierno local se vio obligado a "abrirles las puertas" a los productos brasileños.
En efecto: hubo que agilizar las licencias no automáticas y llevar su aprobación a un lapso de menos de 60 días desde su solicitud, luego de fuertes presiones del país vecino.
Así, el Ministerio de Industria hoy cuenta con una herramienta menos para controlar el ingreso de bienes desde el exterior.
En este contexto, el resultado comercial de Argentina con Brasil arrojó en abril un saldo negativo de u$s136 millones.
Según un informe de la consultora Abeceb.com este número "implica un deterioro del saldo de comercio si se compara con el cuarto mes de 2009, cuando dicho balance fue positivo en u$s 28 millones".
En la misma línea, el resultado acumulado para los primeros cuatro meses del año 2010 señala un saldo deficitario de u$s562 millones, un nivel elevado en relación a los cerca de u$s20 milllones del primer cuatrimestre de 2009.
"Esto es así debido a una mayor velocidad en el crecimiento de las importaciones que de las ventas al Brasil durante el período en cuestión", explicó el informe.
Juan Diego Wasilevsky
(c) iProfesional.com
