G-20 Nears Deal On Capital Rules

07/06/2010

BUSAN, South Korea—The world's leading economic powers edged toward agreement on new rules to ensure that major banks keep enough money in reserve to insulate them against future crises.

Top finance officials from the Group of 20 major industrial and developing economies agreed over the weekend they would finish work on the tightened banking standards before their leaders meet for a summit in Seoul in November, ahead of their original year-end goal.

"It is critical that our banking regulators develop capital and liquidity rules of sufficient rigor to allow our financial firms to withstand future downturns in the global financial system," the finance ministers and central bankers said in a statement at the end of the two-day meeting Saturday on the Korean coast.

Amid these signs of progress, the G-20 remained at odds over another central policy goal: imposing a global levy on financial institutions, either to recoup public expenditures on bailouts or to raise money that might be used to address the next crisis.

The global financial crisis that began in 2008 focused international attention on the technical question of how much, and what kind, of capital banks should have on hand to protect against shocks.

American banks reeled when securities backed by failing home mortgages turned sour, leading to big government bailouts. Likewise, European banks now appear shaky because of their holdings of government bonds from Greece and other financially unstable nations.

Just a few months ago, talks dubbed Basel III, after the Swiss town where they take place, appeared in danger, with countries bickering over, among other issues, whether certain types of securities counted as a viable capital cushion.

U.S. officials said the talks gave more impetus than they had expected to the ground-level negotiations. Technical experts in the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision have the job of turning the general agreement into specific guidelines.

"Stronger capital and liquidity requirements and constraints on leverage are necessary to help ensure that global active financial institutions are better able to withstand future financial shocks and economic shocks," U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said.

The G-20 vowed to aim to implement the new rules by the end of 2012, but there has been discussion recently of pushing back that target for countries nervous about exposing weakness in their banks.

In fact, while they plan to announce a broad agreement at the November summit, G-20 members are still pondering how and when to reveal the specifics of what will constitute acceptable types and levels of capital.

European officials arrived in South Korea under pressure from some of their counterparts and from financial markets to explain just how they would use their new €440 billion ($527 billion) loan entity, part of a $900 billion rescue effort for troubled European Union member states.

Euro-zone governments are close to agreement among themselves on specifics for implementing their planned bailout for the Continent's struggling governments, and they could announce a formal accord as early as Monday, officials here said.

Mr. Geithner welcomed signs of accord within the euro zone. "That will be helpful," he told reporters. "I think people want to see what the details are."

On the G-20 agenda was the related matter of how to solve Europe's dilemma of needing to cut government borrowing at the same time that economies there are relying on state spending for growth and employment. Spending cuts on pensions and public-sector jobs could assuage financial markets in the near term but could also lead to slower growth, hurting countries' abilities to pay down debt.

"The recent events highlight the importance of sustainable public finances and the need for our countries to put in place credible, growth-friendly measures," said the statement at the meeting's end.

A War for Hearts and Minds, Economically Speaking

By DEVIN LEONARD | Published: June 4, 2010

A YEAR ago, Ian Bremmer was invited to the Chinese Consulate in New York, along with a group of economists and scholars, to discuss the financial crisis. Shortly after he arrived, Mr. Bremmer, a political risk consultant who has been widely published, was surprised to hear a Chinese diplomat ask them, "Now that the free market has failed, what do you think is the proper role for the state in the economy?"

Mr. Bremmer was at a loss for words. He didn't agree with the first part of the question. As for the second part, he felt strongly that the correct response was: "as minimal as possible."

But this was an inconvenient time to make such an argument. Only months earlier, President Obama signed the $787 billion stimulus spending bill. Clearly, in America at least, the free market wasn't doing so well.

Mr. Bremmer recounts this tale in the introduction of "The End of the Free Market: Who Wins the War Between States and Corporations?" (Portfolio, 230 pages) his well-crafted, thought-provoking book about the rise of state-controlled economies like China and Russia and the challenges they pose to American companies — and, ultimately, to the United States itself.

The author stops short of calling this a new cold war — well, just barely. The way he sees it, China and Russia are using what he calls "state capitalism" to advance the interests of their companies at the expense of their American rivals. But that is not the only battle he describes in his book. The other is the struggle for the hearts and minds of emerging-market giants like Brazil and India that are leaning toward the free market, but still haven't fully embraced it.

The stakes could be enormous. Mr. Bremmer argues that if the United States and its allies can prevail, their leading businesses will have access to natural resources and growing numbers of middle-class consumers in these nations. But if they fail, the West could be shut out of the very markets where much of the world's economic growth is expected to occur in the next few years.

The problem, Mr. Bremmer says, is that state capitalists are in a very strong position at the moment. He's right. The world blames the United States — as it should — for hatching and exporting the 2008 financial crisis. And as the global economy finally recovers, guess which nation is leading the way? Not America, but China — where the economy is still tightly controlled by the Communist Party.

"The lesson that many emerging-market governments took from the crisis is that free-market capitalism had ignited a wildfire," Mr. Bremmer laments, "and that those who depended on it most had suffered the worst burns."

You probably won't be surprised to hear that a free-market evangelist like Mr. Bremmer isn't a liberal. He praises Margaret Thatcher of Britain for privatizing a slew of government-owned businesses. And he thinks China should take such steps, too. He feels the same about Russia, which privatized many of its state-run businesses in the 1990s only to reassert more control after the rise of Vladimir V. Putin.

But neither is Mr. Bremmer a doctrinaire conservative. Refreshingly, he argues that the United States needs to stand shoulder to shoulder with its capitalist allies in Europe against the threat he sees. He doesn't deny that there are differences between American capitalism and the Scandinavian variety, to say nothing of the French, which the American right never tires of bashing. Yet he argues that the United States and Europe share a core assumption that the private sector, not government, should be a primary engine of growth.

This, he says, is what the creation of the European Union creation was all about. "It's the attraction of the free market that has brought Europe together as never before," he writes.

The same cannot be said of the practitioners of state capitalism. Mr. Bremmer argues that the ruling elites of countries like China, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela use state-owned companies to further political agendas.

Often, he writes, leaders of some state-capitalist nations use profits of these businesses to dole out social-welfare goodies and thus stay in power. Sometimes, he says, they use the companies to make life hard for neighbors — as Russia did when Gazprom, its state-controlled natural gas company, cut off supplies to Ukraine in 2006. Ukraine's offense had been to cozy up to the West and adopt a smattering of free-market measures.

Mr. Bremmer's biggest fear is that the so-called BRIC nations — Brazil, Russia, India and China — will do more business with one another, leaving the United States out in the cold. That would be devastating for the American economy. And it's not a paranoid fantasy, either. Last year, the four countries' leaders met in Russia and discussed ways to reduce dependence on America.

What is to be done? The author makes a curious suggestion: that the United States raise military spending and act as the world's cop — which no BRIC is yet equipped to do. That may seem a bit shortsighted. In many ways, American mistakes in the Iraq war were an invaluable gift to our state-capitalist foes who have used them, fairly or unfairly, to paint America as a rogue state.

Luckily, this isn't his only suggestion. He warns American politicians not to pander for votes by pushing anti-free-market initiatives like protectionism. He says many emerging-market nations — like India, Brazil, South Korea, Turkey and South Africa — have one foot in the free market and the other in state capitalism. They could go either way.

Mr. Bremmer says their leaders are watching to see what the West truly believes when it comes to the economy. In other words, if we are going to preach free-market capitalism, we'd better practice it ourselves.

Clinton Warns Of Iran "Stunt" Ahead Of Latam Visit

By REUTERS | Published: June 6, 2010

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned on Sunday of Iran "stunts" ahead of a visit to Latin America where regional powerhouse Brazil opposes the U.S. drive for new U.N. sanctions over Tehran's nuclear program.

Clinton said she fully expected Iran to "pull some stunt" in the coming days to try to divert pressure for sanctions, but predicted this would fail.

"I think we'll see something coming up in the next 24 to 48 hours," Clinton told reporters aboard her plane before departing. "I don't think anybody should be surprised if they try to divert attention once again from the unity within the Security Council ... but we have the votes," she said.

Clinton's trip takes her to Peru for a meeting of the Organization of American States (OAS), followed by stops in Ecuador, Colombia and Barbados.

The Obama administration has battled perceptions in Latin America that early vows of close cooperation have failed to materialize along with pledges to liberalize treatment of Cuba and to review immigration laws.

"The expectations in the region ran way ahead of reality and there is a certain disappointment and cynicism that has set it," said Eric Farnsworth, vice president of the Washington, D.C.-based Council of the Americas.

"Some of these things are devilishly difficult and it is not going to happen overnight," he said. "The secretary is going to try to put this in a broader context."

U.S.-Brazil ties have been strained by possible new U.N. sanctions on Tehran, which Washington has said it hopes to put to a U.N. Security Council vote this week. Brazil, along with Turkey, wants more time for diplomacy.

Both sides say the Iran issue is only one part of a broad and growing U.S.-Brazil relationship. But the dispute has set the United States publicly at odds with Latin America's fastest rising power as it stakes out a spot on the world stage.

DISAGREEMENT ON HONDURAS

Clinton's trip, her second to the region in three months, is aimed at reaffirming Washington's commitment to Latin America on everything from the battle against drug trafficking to promoting regional trade.

But differences could erupt at the OAS meeting in Peru, particularly over the question of whether to readmit Honduras after a 2009 coup toppled President Manuel Zelaya.

The United States helped to broker November elections that put President Porfirio Lobo in power and says his administration deserves OAS recognition. Brazil and Argentina oppose it, arguing his government still has roots in a coup.

"There still are some countries that believe that Honduras should take additional steps, which is a position that's different from that of the United States," Assistant Secretary of State Arturo Valenzuela said at a briefing.

In Colombia, Clinton will meet the country's two presidential candidates, due for a June 20 run-off, as well as signal U.S. support for its closest regional ally despite a planned $55 million cut in aid.

She also will make a quick visit to Ecuador, whose leftist President Rafael Correa has ties with a regional bloc that also includes Bolivia's Evo Morales and Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, who is a loud critic of U.S. policy.

"We don't want Correa to go the way of Chavez and he has done some pretty quirky things," said Johanna Mendelson Forman, a Latin America expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think-tank. "This is to show we are not isolating them."

IRAN ISSUE LOOMS

Despite the Latin America focus, Iran looks certain to push its way onto Clinton's agenda.

The United States is pushing hard for new U.N. sanctions, saying Iran's violations of its nuclear obligations leave no doubt it seeks atomic weapons -- a charge Tehran denies.

But Brazil and Turkey, both now nonpermanent members of the council, have sought to revive a proposed atomic fuel deal for Tehran, declaring that sanctions should be avoided.

The United States has built a fragile consensus with the four other veto-wielding permanent Security Council members, Britain, France, Russia and China, and says the fuel deal idea fails to address core concerns over Iran's nuclear ambitions.

But the Security Council showdown with two of the developing world's most influential countries over Iran could underscore the limits of U.S. influence over even friendly emerging powers like Brazil.

"The United States has still not factored in the inescapable conclusion that Brazil today is on an irrevocable path toward independent foreign policy," said Larry Birns, director of the Council on Hemispheric Affairs in Washington.

(Editing by Bill Trott and Eric Walsh)

With Drilling Stopped, Losses Could Multiply

By TOM ZELLER Jr. | Published: June 4, 2010

Chett Chiasson, the executive director of Port Fourchon in Louisiana, has a message for President Obama — and any Americans who have applauded the administration's decision to halt deep-water drilling in the Gulf of Mexico: You just don't get it.

"I don't know that this country realizes the cascading impacts of this moratorium," said Mr. Chiasson, whose estimates that his port handles 90 percent of the traffic servicing the deep-water oil and gas industry in the gulf. "It's going to have an impact for years to come."

The Interior Department's six-month moratorium on deep-water drilling most directly affects 17 oil companies, including multinational giants like BP, Exxon Mobil, Shell and Chevron. The order, issued May 27, forced 33 rigs to shut down operations.

Every one of those rigs is serviced out of Port Fourchon, according to Mr. Chiasson, so the drilling ban could end up slashing the incomes of thousands of other workers — from welders and divers to caterers and drivers — who depend on the industry.

One oil industry group, the Louisiana Mid-Continent Oil and Gas Association, has estimated that each exploration and production job represents four supporting jobs in and around the region. If that is the case, thousands of jobs — and millions of dollars in wages — could be affected by the work stoppage, the group said.

With that in mind, a growing chorus of residents, business owners and local politicians in the gulf region are imploring the Obama administration to reconsider the deep-water drilling ban.

"We need to know what you are prepared to do to prevent catastrophic damage to our battered economy," said an editorial addressed to the president that appeared in The Times-Picayune of New Orleans on Friday. "It is not clear, Mr. President, why it will take six months to determine what went wrong on Deepwater Horizon and how to remedy safety deficiencies."

In a separate letter Wednesday to Mr. Obama and Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana said: "During one of the most challenging economic periods in decades, the last thing we need is to enact public policies that will certainly destroy thousands of existing jobs while preventing the creation of thousands more."

During a visit to Louisiana on Friday, Mr. Obama said he is sympathetic to the concerns and has urged his bipartisan commission investigating the spill to take less than six months to make their recommendations, if at all possible. However, the president added, "I'm not going to cut corners on it."

"If we don't do it right, then what you could end up seeing is an even worse impact on the oil industry down here, which is so important to so many jobs," Mr. Obama said.

Under a legislative proposal put forth by the White House, workers who lose their jobs as a result of the moratorium would be eligible for unemployment assistance, and new jobs would be created in cleanup, restoration, renovation and recovery.

But for Mr. Chiasson and the myriad businesses clustered around Port Fourchon, that is likely to be cold comfort.

"I have 37 employees, and I have to look at how I'm going to protect those jobs," Mr. Chiasson said.

When the Deepwater Horizon exploded April 20, releasing a still-continuing torrent of oil into the gulf, representatives from at least 13 different companies were on board. Besides high-level engineers and managers from Transocean, which operated the rig, and BP, which held the lease on it, the workers included cooks, tank washers and laundry workers employed by a medley of subcontracted companies.

A long-term pause in deep-water work could be devastating to local economies already struggling with fishing restrictions, frightened tourists and other effects of the spill.

The biggest concern, said Larry Wall, a spokesman for the regional oil and gas group, is that rig owners and operators will ultimately cancel their contracts and move operations to the coastal areas of Africa, Brazil or other points abroad, rather than let rigs sit idle.

Should that happen en masse, it is unlikely that deep-water work in the gulf would resume quickly even after the moratorium is lifted, given the time and expense involved in relocating rigs.

"The owner of the rig, once he goes overseas, it's two years minimum before he comes back," Mr. Wall said. "And there's a fixed number of those things in the world. If they keep moving, we're going to have a big problem in the gulf."

In some instances, oil companies are invoking what is known a "force majeure" clause in their drilling contracts with rig owners. Typically used in the event of hurricanes or other natural disasters, it allows the operator a way out of its contract when a major, unexpected event occurs.

Anadarko, one of the oil companies affected by the moratorium, said on Thursday that it had notified three of its drilling companies — Noble, Transocean and Diamond Offshore Drilling — of its plan to invoke the clause.

Diamond said that a different oil company also canceled a contract to use another one of its rigs, the Ocean Monarch.

Larry Dickerson, the president and chief executive of Diamond, said in an e-mail message that the future of that rig was "uncertain, with a move to international waters the most likely outcome."

Mr. Dickerson said that while his company had not yet reduced staff, if the rig were forced to relocate, it would normally use local workers. "I am sure our roustabouts and floor hands are worried," he said.

Michael A. Pontiff, the sales manager for Gator Equipment Rental in Houma, La., a company that rents welding machines and air compressors to offshore drilling companies, said that he was not waiting for the worst, and that he had written letters to state leaders and Mr. Obama.

"I'm a simple person," Mr. Pontiff said. "I just want to know that our politicians are doing the right thing and that they know a lot of people's lives and livelihoods depend on it."

Jackie Calmes, Rob Harris and Robbie Brown contributed reporting.

Ahmadinejad's Sugar Daddy

How Brazilian ethanol could help Iran outwit American sanctions.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has been spending a lot of time with his Iranian counterpart Mahmoud Ahmadinejad lately, to the consternation of the former's supporters at home and friends elsewhere in the West. Brazil, currently a member of the U.N. Security Council, has been unapologetic about its newfound relationship with Iran, which produced a dubious nuclear fuel-swap deal last month; it defends Iran's right to enrich uranium and rejects any idea of tough economic sanctions. The budding friendship has baffled Washington: Why would this Latin American country, otherwise a U.S. ally, insist on cozying up to Iran to the detriment of its relations closer to home?

There are several possible explanations. Brazil has long harbored its own nuclear aspirations, and increasingly seeks to define its own foreign policy and emerge as an independent global power. But Lula's motives may be less complicated than all that: There are also $10 billion in Brazilian-Iranian trade deals to be had. Perhaps the most intriguing, and strategic, aspect of those trade relations has to do with sugar.

Brazil is the world's largest sugar grower. This year it experienced a bumper crop, with output growing 16 percent from a year earlier. But due to a global glut, sugar prices have plunged 57 percent since February. Because sugar cane is a perishable crop that cannot be stored, the best way for Brazil to generate value from its undervalued surplus is by converting it into ethanol, of which Brazil is already the second-largest producer (after the United States) and a major consumer (for years Brazilians have driven mostly flex-fuel cars, which can run on any combination of gasoline and ethanol). The country's ethanol production is expected to rise 19 percent to 8 billion gallons this year.

For Tehran, Brazil's surplus ethanol could be a strategic savior. Iran is a major exporter of crude oil, but lacks the refinery capacity to process most of it; as a result, the second-largest oil producer in OPEC depends on other countries' exports of refined gasoline. A conference committee in the U.S. Congress is hammering out legislation that aims to exploit this weakness by imposing sanctions on foreign companies that supply refined petroleum products to Iran. Tehran has been bracing for these sanctions for a while, taking measures to address its Achilles' heel: building seven new refineries, expanding existing ones, converting cars to run on natural gas (of which Iran has the world's second-largest reserves), and securing alternative gasoline supplies from China and Venezuela.

But none of these efforts would give Iran the immediate injection of motor fuel it needs as swiftly as Brazil's ethanol. Brazil could replace most of the 5.8 million gallons of gasoline that Iran imports daily (a conventional internal-combustion car engine can handle up to 20 percent ethanol in its fuel blend without damage to the engine; in the United States most cars already run on 10 percent). Doing so would pull the teeth out of the gasoline sanctions legislation, rendering it useless before it even reaches President Barack Obama's desk.

If this were to happen, however, Congress and the Obama administration would have only themselves to blame. For years, Brazil has been clamoring to export its surplus ethanol to the United States, only to be blocked by lawmakers beholden to powerful American agricultural lobbies. If not for a prohibitive 54-cent-per-gallon import tariff on Brazilian ethanol -- not to mention a sugar quota and tariff system that restricts imports and keeps sugar prices in the United States much higher than the world price -- the fuel could have ended up in American gas tanks rather than reducing the country's leverage with Tehran.

But American lawmakers seem less afraid of a nuclear Iran than they are of angry American corn farmers and ethanol producers -- or, at least, want to have it both ways. Many champions of the Iran Refined Petroleum Sanctions Act, as the proposed legislation is called, are also defenders of the tariff. In the Senate, all but two of the nine co-sponsors of recently introduced legislation to extend the tariff -- which is due to expire next year -- by an additional five years are also co-sponsors of the Iran sanctions bill. Thirty-six supporters of the same sanctions act in the House of Representatives are also co-sponsors of the tariff-protecting Renewable Fuels Reinvestment Act.

The tariff on Brazilian ethanol has been a lingering source of tension between Brazil and the United States for years. Both Presidents George W. Bush and Obama, in their meetings with Lula, rejected his request to eliminate the tariff. Now Lula is taking his revenge, and it's surely a sweet one.

Brazil, North Korea: Brothers in trade

Jun 3, 2010 | By Bertil Lintner

BANGKOK - For more than a decade, the world around North Korea has been shrinking. In the wake of its missile and nuclear tests and recent accusations that it torpedoed a South Korean naval vessel, the list of internationally imposed sanctions and trade restrictions aimed at isolating the reclusive state has grown ever longer.

But the North Koreans, who have been in a state of war for more than half a century, have often found ingenious ways around those restrictions and added pressures from the United States, Japan and other countries, most visibly seen in the string of front companies and bank accounts it maintains across Asia.

Recent indications are that Pyongyang has sought willing trade partners outside of Asia and its new closest commercial ally appears to be Brazil. Relations between the two countries have warmed considerably since leftist Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva became president in January 2003.

The official Chinese news agency Xinhua reported in October 2004 that North Korea planned to open an embassy in Brasilia, its fourth in the Latin and South American region after Havana, Cuba, Lima, Peru and Mexico City. On May 23, 2006, the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) and the Brazilian media reported that the two countries had signed a trade agreement.

More recently, the KCNA reported last December that a "protocol on the amendment to the trade agreement" had been signed in the capital Pyongyang. "Present at the signing ceremony from the DPRK [Democratic People's Republic of Korea, or North Korea] side were Ri Ryong Nam, minister of foreign trade, and officials concerned and from the Brazilian side Arnaldo Carrilho, Brazilian ambassador to the DPRK, and embassy officials," according to the news report.

China's role in facilitating trade between Brazil and North Korea remains a matter of conjecture, but it is significant that the state mouthpiece Xinhua has eagerly reported on the warming of relations between the two countries. China remains Pyongyang's most important base for all kinds of foreign trade - legitimate as well as more convoluted business transactions through front companies in Beijing and elsewhere.

But North Korea also needs more discreet trading partners, as China is often criticized in international forums for its close relations with the North Korean regime and is undoubtedly closely watched by Western intelligence agencies. And it is hardly surprising that Brazil, which is known to harbor its own nuclear ambitions, albeit for stated peaceful purposes, has emerged as such a friendly nation to Pyongyang.

Significantly, Brazil has established what appears to be an understanding with another aspiring nuclear power: Iran. "Also like Iran, Brazil has cloaked key aspects of its nuclear technology in secrecy while insisting the program is for peaceful purposes, claims nuclear weapons experts have debunked," according to an April 20, 2006 Associated Press report.

While Brazil is more cooperative than Iran on international inspections, some worry its new enrichment capability - which eventually will create more fuel than is needed for its two nuclear plants [1] - suggests that South America's biggest nation may be rethinking its commitment to nuclear non-proliferation.

''Brazil is following a path very similar to Iran, but Iran is getting all the attention,'' said Marshall Eakin, a Brazil expert at Vanderbilt University in the United States. ''In effect, Brazil is benefiting from Iran's problems.''

In September 2009, Lula declared before the United Nations General Assembly: "Iran is entitled to the same rights as any other country in its use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes." He added to reporters outside the UN General Assembly, "I defend for Iran the same rights with respect to nuclear energy that I do for Brazil." He added: "If anyone is ashamed of having relations with Iran, it's not Brazil."

But it is Lula's budding cooperation with North Korea that is especially worrying to some Western observers. According to one longtime observer of the North Korean scene, "Both nations have long-standing ambitions to develop a nuclear capability as well as missiles and space-launched vehicles. Both have been the subject of intense US political pressure at times, Brazil on-and-off, North Korea all the time. And Brazil has access to technology that North Korea can only dream about."

Because Brazil is not on any international sanctions list, it is easier for it to obtain dual-use materials. It remains to be proven, however, that Brazil has served as a conduit for such goods ultimately destined for North Korea.

According to official trade statistics, available at www.stat-trade.com, North Korea's largest trading partner in 2009 was China, with two-way commerce totaling US$2.67 billion. That was followed by South-North Korean trade worth $1.68 billion. A surprising third on the list was Brazil with US$221 million in two-way trade, well ahead of Singapore, Hong Kong and North Korea's other traditional Asian trading partners.

The nominal figure may not be impressive in an international context, but it is substantial for North Korea, a country with an estimated total gross domestic product of about $22 billion. North Korea's trade with Brazil has recently increased almost at the pace it has decreased with Thailand, from where it previously sourced dual-use chemicals, raw materials and machinery. Thailand no longer figures prominently in recent trade statistics, which is noteworthy given that their two-way trade reached a record US$331 million in 2004.

Those deals were done under the government of Thaksin Shinawatra, who at one point even proposed signing a full-blown free-trade agreement with North Korea. In August 2005, the former Thai premier was formally invited by North Korean leader Kim Jong-il to visit Pyongyang. The visit never materialized, however, and when Thaksin was ousted in a September 2006 military coup, Thai-North Korean relations began to deteriorate. By 2008, bilateral trade between Thailand and North Korea fell to $76 million and in 2009 dipped further to $47.1 million.

Among North Korea's more remarkable export items before the September 2006 coup in Thailand were 1.3 tons of gold and 10 tons of silver. Another pre-arranged shipment of 12 tons of silver arrived in Bangkok in October of that year. However, business is now reportedly sluggish at the two main trading companies that North Korea is known to maintain in Bangkok, Star Bravo and Kosun Export Import.

Successive Thai governments that have ruled the country since Thaksin's overthrow are believed to have complied more strictly with international pressure to restrict dealings with North Korea. In Brazil, however, North Korea has a long history of involvement with various leftist groups, the distant offshoots of which are now in power in Brasilia.

North Korea expert Joseph S Bermudez wrote in his 1990 study "Terrorism: The North Korean Connection":

From 1968 to 1971 the DPRK provided financial and military assistance to several leftist organizations in Brazil, most notably to Carlos Marighella's National Liberating Action (Acao Libertadora Nacional - ALN) and the Revolutionary Popular Vanguard (Vanguarda Popular Revolucionaria - VPR). By November 1970, the DPRK established a training base in the Porto Alegre area, where a small number of guerrillas were given guerrilla warfare, small arms, and ideological training. A small number of ALN and VPR personnel is believed to have also received training within the DPRK.

Marighella - a Marxist, writer and founder of the ALN - was the leader of a militant movement that fought against Brazil's US-supported, authoritarian right-wing governments in the 1960s. In September 1969, the guerrillas even managed to kidnap US ambassador Charles Burke Elbrick for 78 hours. After his release in exchange for 15 imprisoned leftists, Elbrick remarked, "Being an ambassador is not always a bed or roses." Two months later, Marighella was killed in an encounter with Brazil's police. But on November 4, 2009, the 40th anniversary of the death of Marighella, Lula declared him a "national hero".

Although ideology may be less important than profits in today's capitalist world, there are old emotional bonds between North Korea and Brazil under Lula that should not be entirely discounted. Brazil may be among the countries which have condemned North Korea's nuclear program, as was shown when, in May 2009, the Brazilian government called on North Korea "to sign the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty and to strictly observe the moratorium on nuclear tests".

But bilateral trade between the two sides is nevertheless - in relative terms - now booming. In May last year, North Korea's Foreign Affairs Minister Pak Ui-chun arrived in Brazil to meet with his Brazilian counterpart, Celso Amorim. Pak expressed Pyongyang's interest in receiving assistance in its deep-water oil prospecting efforts from PETROBRAS (Brazilian Petroleum Corporation), while Amorim said his country was reportedly interested in exporting what he referred to as "farm" machinery.

So far no military hardware, or material that could have military applications, is known to have changed hands between North Korea and Brazil. But Pyongyang has found at least one new trading partner which could potentially replace some of its former business allies in Asia. It's a budding relationship that will be closely monitored by North Korea watchers in Japan and the West.

Note
1. According to the World Nuclear Association, construction on a third plant is "imminent", with a 66-month completion date.

Bertil Lintner is a former correspondent with the Far Eastern Economic Review and the author of Great Leader, Dear Leader: Demystifying North Korea under the Kim Clan. He is currently a writer with Asia Pacific Media Services.

Central banks look to tackle range of problems

By Jack Farchy

Published: June 7 2010 03:00 | Last updated: June 7 2010 03:00

Monetary policy will be in the spotlight this week, as central bankers in Europe and emerging economies face up to starkly different problems.

In Europe, where the European Central Bank as well as the Bank of England hold rate-setting meetings on Thursday, the focus is likely to be on the debt crisis causing turmoil in markets.

But emerging economies such as China and Brazil are struggling with inflationary pressures. In the case of China in particular, markets will be watching for any sign of overheating, indicating that a more aggressive policy crackdown may be in store.

The world's fastestgrowing large economy is due to release a slew of data this week. Figures on industrial production, fixed-asset investment and money supply for May will give an indication of whether the cooling measures the Chinese government has taken are having an effect. All three indicators are forecast to dip slightly from April.

"The ongoing unwinding of the stimulus package and the capacity reduction on energy-intensive sectors implies a likely moderation in investment," said economists at HSBC.

But they added that they did not expect a significant slowdown.

Chinese consumer price inflation is expected to continue to rise, hitting the government's target 3 per cent level for May from 2.8 per cent in April. That is likely to raise fears in the market of further tightening measures.

"Inflation is set to rise further in the coming months, outweighing growth risks as the top concern," HSBC said.

The UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation said last week that it expected the global cost of food imports to rise 11.5 per cent this year, driven by rising costs of high-value foods such as meat and dairy products, which Chinese consumers are eating in greater quantities. Chinese food inflation was at 5.9 per cent in April.

The Brazilian central bank, also facing rising inflation, is expected to hike the benchmark Selic rate by 75 basis points to 10.25 per cent this week.

Meanwhile, the ECB and the Bank are expected to keep rates on hold at 1 per cent and 0.5 per cent respectively, and analysts expect little move on rates for some time.

That is in spite of some positive economic data: April industrial production for Germany, released tomorrow, is expected to have risen 0.6 per cent from a month earlier, while orders are also expected to remain strong.

In the US, data on the strength of the consumer recovery is expected to be strong - although, after the non-farm payrolls report disappointed expectations last week, some of those predictions may be less confident.

A 0.2 per cent month-on-month rise is forecast for retail sales, while the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index is expected to rise to 75.0 in June from 73.6 in May.

Crop squeeze to boost orange juice price

By Jonathan Wheatley in São Paulo

Published: June 7 2010 03:00 | Last updated: June 7 2010 03:00

The price of orange juice will rise in coming months as Brazil's citrus crop, the largest, sees its worst harvest in seven years due to bad weather and diseases, according to Cutrale of Brazil, the leading orange juice producer.

Orange juice is a $20bn (£14bn) industry with prices affecting farmers in São Paulo and Florida, processors, trading houses and bottlers such as Coca-Cola and PepsiCo.

Carlos Viacava, Cutrale chief executive, said contracts being signed with orange producers this year in Brazil, which accounts for roughly half of the world's orange juice output, include price rises of 50 to 60 per cent.

"Some of the producers we were paying R$5 (£1.85)

a box are now getting R$14 or R$15 a box," he told the Financial Times, although he said the average increase was smaller.

Oranges are sold in boxes weighing 90lbs (40.8kg).

In New York, frozen concentrate of orange juice futures traded last week at 136 cents per pound, down from a two-year high of 153 cents set in March.

FCOJ prices have risen 95 per cent since January 2009 on the back of lower crops.

The rise comes as Cutrale forecasts orange output in 2010-11 in Brazil's citrus belt at 286m boxes, down 6.2 per cent from 2009-10 and the smallest since 2003-04.

Prices could be further affected if the harvest in Florida, the second-biggest producer, is hit by hurricanes this summer, with meteorologists forecasting one of the most active storm seasons.

The crop is already expected to be low due to frost this year and the impact of the so-called greening disease.

The US Department of Agriculture forecasts Florida's crop at 136m boxes in 2009-10, the lowest in more than a decade and down 15 per cent from 2008-09.

François Sonneville, an orange juice analyst at Rabobank, said the supply concentration in Brazil and the US has led to economies of scale and made orange juice more affordable but "the drawback is that it has also made the supply vulnerable to the impact from diseases and extreme weather events".

The warning of higher prices comes as the Brazilian orange industry consolidates, with the merger of number-two Citrosuco and number-three Citrovita.

After the combination, the company would be the largest juice processor, controlling 25 per cent of supplies and displacing Cutrale to second position.

Louis Dreyfus, the French trading house, would be the third largest processor.

Economic Outlook: Central banks in spotlight

By Jack Farchy

Published: June 6 2010 20:23 | Last updated: June 6 2010 20:23

Monetary policy will be in the spotlight this week, as central bankers in Europe and emerging economies face up to starkly different problems.

In Europe, where the European Central Bank as well as the Bank of England hold rate-setting meetings on Thursday, the focus is likely to be on the debt crisis causing turmoil in markets.

The world's fastest-growing large economy is due to release a slew of data this week. Figures on industrial production, fixed-asset investment and money supply for May will give an indication of whether the cooling measures the Chinese government has taken are having an effect. All three indicators are forecast to dip slightly from April.

"The ongoing unwinding of the stimulus package and the capacity reduction on energy-intensive sectors implies a likely moderation in investment," said economists at HSBC.

But they added that they did not expect a significant slowdown.

"Inflation is set to rise further in the coming months, outweighing growth risks as the top concern," HSBC said.

The Brazilian central bank, also facing rising inflation, is expected to hike the benchmark Selic rate by 75 basis points to 10.25 per cent this week.

Meanwhile, the ECB and the Bank are expected to keep rates on hold at 1 per cent and 0.5 per cent respectively, and analysts expect little move on rates for some time.

In the US, data on the strength of the consumer recovery is expected to be strong – although, after the non-farm payrolls report disappointed expectations last week, some of those predictions may be less confident.

A 0.2 per cent month-on-month rise is forecast for retail sales, while the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index is expected to rise to 75.0 in June from 73.6 in May.

Sugar volatility

By Sophia Grene

Published: June 6 2010 08:33 | Last updated: June 6 2010 08:33

A good example of the vagaries of the soft commodities market is the recent history of sugar prices.

Global sugar prices hit a three-decade high earlier this year, only to fall back by nearly 50 per cent (to a one-year low) when news broke that the Indian sugar harvest would beat expectations.

India's output swings move the country from exporter to importer. As the largest consumer of sugar and second largest producer (after Brazil), the presence of Indian demand or supply in the global market is a significant driver of the price.

India is a very opaque place, says Tobin Gorey, a commodities analyst at JPMorgan. This means harvest expectations, based on reports of what has been planted and what weather is forecast, can be badly out of line with reality.

This year, for example, the January/February crop was forecast to be around 4.5m tonnes, some 8m short of expected consumption. Instead it was 8.5m, leaving a much smaller shortfall to be made up.

"At the start of the year, the forecast was for sugar to be at one of the tightest levels for 50 years, so the price went a fair way," says Mr Gorey.

"With February expectations, you were looking at two years to recover to balance inventories. Now you can get most of the task done in the first year."

Exaggerating the wild swings in prices was the presence of a large number of buyers, who may have driven the price higher than the fundamentals called for, and then pushed it sharply lower as they scrambled to get out of a trade they no longer liked.

The International Sugar Organisation said last month that, after a deficit of about 8.5m tonnes in 2009-10, the global market could swing to a surplus of 2.5m in 2010-11, which would be likely to drive prices lower.

Clinton seeks better LatAm ties despite friction

By Lachlan Carmichael (AFP) – 1 day ago

WASHINGTON — US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was set to leave Sunday on a tour for stronger security and trade ties with Latin America despite US friction with powerful Brazil over Cuba, Honduras and Iran.

The chief US diplomat will first hold a full day of talks in Lima on Monday with officials of the 33 active members of the Organization of American States (OAS) before traveling on to Ecuador, Colombia and Barbados.

It was not clear whether rows or differences between Washington and Brasilia, the Western hemisphere's main powers, would stay under the surface or burst into the open and hurt the overall OAS meeting.

With security the main theme this year, the OAS General Assembly's agenda lists plans to tackle regional arms sales, crime and Argentina's claim of sovereignty over Britain's Falkland Islands.

Clinton's top diplomat for the region, Arturo Valenzuela, said the United States does not support the Argentine claim. "Our position has always been that this is a matter for both countries to address," he told reporters Friday.

Peruvian President Alan Garcia seeks to limit arms sales and avert an arms race amid what analyst Michael Shifter says is his concern over purchases by Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Venezuela.

But Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington, told AFP he doubts the proposal will go far amid lack of interest from Brazil and the United States as well as other countries.

Valenzuela, the US assistant secretary of state for the Western Hemisphere, dismissed fears of an arms race. "There has actually been a significant decline in expenditures on armaments in most countries of the region," he said.

Though it may not be on the agenda, there may be debate over US-backed efforts to readmit Honduras to the OAS following its suspension in June last year over the coup that toppled president Manuel Zelaya.

OAS Secretary General Jose Miguel Insulza said Honduras will come up in a free session on Monday but a Peruvian government source said some states prefer to avoid such debate for fear it could degenerate into an ideological row.

For many Latin American countries, Honduras cannot return to the OAS unless Zelaya is allowed to return peacefully from exile, according to Insulza.

Shifter said there remained a "sharp difference" over readmitting Honduras to the OAS between the United States and Brazil, which sheltered Zelaya in its embassy in Tegucigalpa during a long stand-off following the coup.

Analyst Christopher Sabatini, an executive at the New York-based Americas Society and Council of the Americas, told AFP it might be possible for the OAS to reach a consensus on a "process" for readmitting Honduras.

A similar compromise was tailored for Cuba to save last year's OAS assembly when a dispute emerged with the United States opposing efforts by Venezuela, Brazil and others to readmit Havana to the pan-Arab grouping.

Apart from US-Brazilian differences over Honduras, those over Iran and Cuba can also bubble to the surface, Shifter said.

US officials declined to say whether Clinton would meet on the margins of the OAS with Celso Amorim, the Brazilian foreign minister, as Washington pushes next week for a UN Security Council vote on new sanctions against Iran.

Brazil, a non-permanent council member, has opposed sanctions while pushing a deal opposed by Washington to ship low-grade nuclear fuel to Turkey so that it can be further enriched and returned to Iran for medical purposes.

Shifter said Cuba could come up again as many Latin American countries feel little has been done in the last year to readmit Cuba.

On Tuesday, Clinton will fly to Quito for talks with Ecuador's leftist President Rafael Correa and for a speech laying out the broad outlines of President Barack Obama's policies toward Latin America.

"The idea now is to set forth a more cooperative agenda," Sabatini said of the speech.

"This administration wants to feel it is leaving a mark on Latin American policy," he said, noting it has suffered a number of "fits and starts" in improving ties with a region that has long distrusted the United States.

Clinton will visit Colombia on Wednesday and Barbados on Thursday before returning to Washington. She has made around half a dozen tours of Latin American countries since she became secretary of state.

Crowded agenda awaits Clinton in Latin America

By MATTHEW LEE (AP) – 1 day ago

WASHINGTON — Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton travels to Latin America and the Caribbean with a crowded agenda awaiting: lingering tensions over last year's coup in Honduras, U.S. immigration policy, security issues and concerns over Iran and the Middle East.

Clinton was to depart Sunday on her seventh trip to the region as the top U.S. diplomat, with a schedule that included an Organization of American States meeting in Peru as well as later stops in Ecuador, Colombia and Barbados.

At all points, officials say, she will stress the Obama administration's commitment to the Western Hemisphere and support for democracy.

The most contentious topic facing the OAS — whether to readmit Honduras to the regional bloc — isn't on the agenda at Monday's annual OAS General Assembly in Lima. But it will loom large over the discussions, with the U.S. at odds with numerous other member countries on the matter.

The U.S. wants Honduras allowed back into the organization following elections that brought the current president, Porfirio Lobo, to power after the June 2009 coup that ousted his predecessor, Manuel Zelaya. Other governments, notably Brazil, Venezuela and Nicaragua, are opposed and insist that Zelaya be allowed to return home first.

"There still are some countries that believe that Honduras should take additional steps, which is a position that's different from that of the United States," said Arturo Valenzuela, the assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs.

"We believe that, in fact, Honduras has taken important steps to overcome the crisis," he told reporters Friday. "Although, we are also mindful of the fact that there are continuing concerns over human rights violations in Honduras and that certain steps still need to be taken in order to bring about a process of national reconciliation."

Also of great concern in Latin America is Arizona's new immigration law, which some believe will lead to racial profiling. While this, too, is not on the formal agenda, Clinton probably will get an earful about it from her colleagues even though President Barack Obama has said the law is "poorly conceived" and "not the right way to go."

The law requires that police conducting traffic stops or questioning people about possible legal violations ask them about their immigration status if there is "reasonable suspicion" that they're in the United States illegally. Reasonable suspicion is not defined.

The law, which takes effect July 29 unless blocked by a court as requested under pending legal challenges, also makes it a state crime to be in the U.S. illegally or to impede traffic while hiring day laborers, regardless of the worker's immigration status. It would become a crime for illegal immigrants to solicit work.

OAS Secretary-General Jose Miguel Insulza has called the law "an issue of concern to all citizens of the Americas, beginning with the citizens of the United States." Other nations have complained loudly about it.

In separate talks on the sidelines of the Lima meeting, Clinton is expected to press for support for new U.N. penalties against Iran over its nuclear program. Brazil recently worked with Turkey to broker an agreement with Iran that would avert fresh penalties.

Brazil, which opposes U.N. penalties against Iran, is an elected member of the U.N. Security Council, where the U.S. hopes to bring a fourth sanctions resolution to a vote in the coming days.

From Peru, Clinton travels to Ecuador for talks with President Rafael Correa and to deliver a speech outlining the administration's broad policy toward the region, which has a heavy emphasis on fighting the narcotics trade.

In Colombia, a major ally that had been the recipient of massive U.S. aid to combat drug trafficking, she will see the departing president, Alvaro Uribe.

She plans to meet with the two candidates to succeed Uribe: former defense minister Juan Manuel Santos, who helped craft the current president's popular security policies, and rival Antanas Mockus, the ex-two-time mayor of Bogota who has promised clean government and a tax increase. The candidates are in a June 20 runoff election.

Clinton will close out the trip in Bridgetown, Barbados, where she will see foreign ministers from Caribbean island nations to discuss endemic crime, violence and narco-trafficking.

Ministros de Argentina y Brasil discutirán en Buenos Aires temas comerciales

(AFP) – hace 16 horas

BUENOS AIRES — Los ministros de Economía y de Industria de Argentina, Amado Boudou y Débora Giorgi, se reunirán esta semana en Buenos Aires con sus pares de Brasil, Guido Mantega y Miguel Jorge (Desarrollo) para discutir medidas para ampliar el comercio, informó el domingo el gobierno argentino.

"Nuestro objetivo es trabajar en medidas que nos permitan reequilibrar el desarrollo industrial de ambos países y equiparar la balanza comercial, que por ahora resulta desfavorable para Argentina", dijo Giorgi en un comunicado. La reunión fue acordada durante el encuentro que mantuvieron en Rio de Janeiro, la presidenta argentina, Cristina Kirchner y su par de Brasil, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

El encuentro se produce tras la advertencia de Brasil de imponer represalias de reciprocidad si Argentina restringe la importación de alimentos desde el vecino país, medida que según informaciones de prensa, Argentina tendría bajo estudio.

"En este contexto de déficit parece increíble que sigamos escuchando algunas voces relacionadas con la importación, que agitan fantasmas en la relación comercial, que si bien es profunda también debe recorrer el camino de la equiparación del desequilibrio comercial", dijo la ministra argentina.

En su visita a Rio, Kirchner remarcó que "no habrá restricciones y sí una produndización de las relaciones comerciales, un aumento del intercambio" con Brasil. En 2009, el intercambio comercial entre Brasil y Argentina fue de 24.066 millones de dólares, sensiblemente menor que en 2008 cuando se elevó a 30.864 millones.

La agenda de la reunión ministerial abordará la profundización del sistema de pago en monedas locales, la integración de cadenas productivas, el financiamiento de las exportaciones con fondos del Banco Nacional de Desarrollo de Brasil (BNDES) y eliminación de las barreras de acceso al mercado brasileño.

Argentina y Brasil buscarán "equilibrar" la relación

Lunes 7 de junio de 2010 | 10:00 hs

Los ministros de Economía, Amado Boudou, y de Industria, Débora Giorgi, se reunirán esta semana en Buenos Aires con sus pares brasileños de Hacienda, Guido Mantega, y de Desarrollo, Miguel Jorge, para trabajar en el desarrollo de herramientas que permitan equilibrar la balanza comercial entre ambos países.

Fuentes de la cartera de Industria comentaron que aún no se fijó el día de la reunión porque "estamos esperando el regreso del ministro Boudou de Corea del Sur para ajustar las agendas con los funcionarios brasileños".

La reunión surgió del encuentro que mantuvieron a fines del mes pasado en Río de Janeiro los presidentes de la Argentina, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, y de Brasil, Luiz Inacio Da Silva, en el marco de los reclamos de industriales brasileños por la eventual aplicación de restricciones a las importaciones de alimentos provenientes del vecino país.

En esa oportunidad, la mandataria aseveró que "no hubo ni habrá restricciones a las importaciones" que vienen de Brasil.

Giorgi explicó a través de un comunicado que en la agenda de trabajo se encuentra la necesidad de profundizar el sistema de pago en moneda local, la integración de cadenas productivas, el financiamiento de las exportaciones con fondos del Banco Nacional de Desarrollo de Brasil (Bndes) y eliminación de las barreras de acceso al mercado brasileño. Agencia DyN

CFK agreed to set up meeting with Lula da Silva
Giorgi, Boudou to meet with Brazilian ministers, discuss commerce

Monday, June 07, 2010 | 09:59 ET

Argentina's Economy and Production Ministers, Amado Boudou and Débora Giorgi, will meet this week in Buenos Aires with their Brazilian counterparts, Guido Mantega and Miguel Jorge to discuss measures to widen commercial opportunities, according to the Argentine government.

"Our goal is to work on measures that will allow us to balance out industrial development from both countries and help the commercial balance which is, at the moment, unfavorable for Argentina," said Giorgi through a press release.

The meeting was set during a previous meeting between President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

Brasil

Lunes 7 de junio de 2010

Los ministros de Industria, Débora Giorgi, y Economía, Amado Boudou, se reunirán a mediados de semana con sus pares de Brasil, Miguel Jorge y Guido Mantega, para buscar medidas que tiendan a equilibrar la balanza comercial entre ambos países, con las trabas informales a las importaciones dispuestas por Argentina semanas atrás como telón de fondo. Giorgi afirmó que, entre otros temas, Argentina pedirá trabajar sobre la eliminación de barreras para ingresar al mercado brasileño.

Las elecciones presidenciales en Brasil debilitarían aún más al real, hasta tocar las 2 unidades por dólar

BLOOMBERG San Pablo ()

Lunes 7 de junio de 2010

Las turbulencias financieras del último mes han hecho del real brasileño la moneda de peor desempeño en América Latina con perspectivas de extenderse, según apuntaron Bank of America y Barclays. Para estas entidades financieras, además, las inversiones disminuirán antes de las elecciones presidenciales que se llevarán a cabo en octubre para reemplazar a Luis Ignacio Lula da Silva.

Los dos bancos redujeron sus pronósticos del tercer trimestre sobre el real más de un 2,5% en las últimas cinco semanas, lo que bajó a su vez la previsión consensuada para fin de año en un sondeo de Bloomberg un 1,1% a 1,77 por dólar. Las reducciones contrastan con el aumento de los pronósticos del peso mexicano y el peso argentino.

"Mientras el real bajó un 5% el mes pasado según la crisis de la deuda de Europa socavaba la demanda de activos de mayor rendimiento de los mercados emergentes, los descensos de aquí en adelante dependerán de las declaraciones de los candidatos en sus campañas para la elección de octubre", arriesgó Roberto Melzi, estratega de mercados latinoamericanos en Barclays. "Habrá un poco de ruido sobre lo que los candidatos hacen, no hacen, a quién nombran", adelantó Melzi en una entrevista telefónica el 2 de junio desde Nueva York. "Puede haber incertidumbre, volatilidad y cierta presión depreciatoria durante la campaña", agregó.

Barclays, en tamaño el tercer operador de divisas del mundo según Euromoney Institutional Investor, bajó su pronóstico de septiembre el mes pasado a 2 reales por dólar desde la previsión previa de 1,95. Bank of America, con oficinas centrales en Charlotte, Carolina del Norte, redujo su pronóstico del tercer trimestre a fines de abril un 9,5% a 1,9 reales por dólar.

Brasil pondrá freno a la suba del gasto público

Lunes 7 de junio de 2010

Brasil planea limitar los salarios de funcionarios públicos y los gastos estatales para contener el aumento del presupuesto federal, dijo el secretario del Tesoro Arno Augustin, en una entrevista publicada ayer por el diario O Estado de S. Paulo.

El gobierno no ve necesidad de más aumentos a salarios de trabajadores públicos tras haber subido recientemente algunos sueldos y vetará "cualquier exceso" aprobado por el Congreso que pudiera crear riesgos a la política fiscal de Brasil, sostuvo Augustin.

El funcionario indicó que una propuesta en el Congreso para aumentar los salarios de bomberos y oficiales de la policía es particularmente preocupante y un enorme problema que podría llevar a la quiebra a algunos estados y municipalidades.

Pese a incertidumbres del mercado sobre la postura de Brasil para controlar costos, Augustin dijo que el gobierno cumplirá su meta del 2010 para el superávit primario del presupuesto - que excluye pagos de deudas - del 3,3% del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB).

El gobierno podría también aumentar el tamaño de su fondo de riqueza soberano para absorber fondos públicos en un intento por desacelerar el crecimiento de la economía, aunque todavía no se ha tomado ninguna decisión sobre el tema, agregó.

El ministro de Finanzas brasileño, Guido Mantega, develó el mes pasado recortes de gastos de 10.000 millones de reales (u$s 5.400 millones) para el presupuesto 2010, además de 21.500 millones de reales rebajados del presupuesto en marzo, a fin de enfriar la expansión que ha avivado la inflación.

DICEN QUE LAS FRECUENCIAS AL EXTERIOR AUMENTA SUS PÉRDIDAS
Crece la pelea entre Aerolíneas, LAN y las líneas brasileñas por vuelos internacionales
A comienzos de año, la compañía administrada por el Estado incrementó la oferta de tramos internacionales largos y regionales, que tienen precios desregulados

EL CRONISTA Buenos Aires ()

Aerolíneas Argentinas y Austral, que juntas dominan el mercado de cabotaje argentino, se propusieron este año competir fuerte en el mercado internacional, donde las tarifas son libres y cobra mayor importancia el segmento de pasajeros de las clases premium, que buscan la comodidad que compensa los efectos de los trayectos largos. Austral mantuvo su histórico enfoque en los vuelos internos, mientras que Aerolíneas anunció en febrero un incremento del 75% en las frecuencias semanales de los viajes regionales (hasta 161) y un 11% a los internacionales de tramos extensos, incluyendo un aumento del 75% en las frecuencias a Miami (64% más de asientos).

La competencia con las compañías aéreas internacionales recrudeció no sólo por la ampliación de su oferta, sino también porque comenzó a utilizar Aeroparque para los vuelos regionales (a Brasil, Paraguay y Chile), algo que inmediatamente pidieron también la filial de la chilena LAN y las brasileñas GOL y TAM. Operar en Aeroparque implica que los pasajeros reduzcan de cuatro a una hora y media los lapsos de conexión cuando vienen del interior.

La respuesta desde el mercado de aerolíneas internacionales no se hizo esperar y comenzó a circular en ellas un informe según el cual el 70% de las pérdidas de Aerolíneas Argentinas se genera en sus rutas al exterior. De acuerdo con el trabajo, en 2009 Aerolíneas facturó u$s 386 millones por vuelos internacionales y sus costos operativos en ese mismo segmento ascendieron a u$s 623 millones, lo cual se tradujo en una pérdida en su resultado operativo de u$s 237 millones. Los gastos de estructura producidos por atender ese mercado serían de u$s 88 millones y las pérdidas totales, por lo tanto de u$s 325 millones, es decir, el 70% del rojo.

En cambio –de acuerdo con el informe– las ventas por pasajes de tramos domésticos ascendieron a u$s 409 millones y sus costos operativos fueron de u$s 483, es decir, la pérdida se limitó a u$s 74 millones. Los gastos de estructura, en este caso, serían de u$s 68 millones y las pérdidas totales, de u$s 142 millones (el 30% del déficit).

"Los resultados oficiales del primer bimestre de 2010 muestran pérdidas 32% superiores a las del primer bimestre de 2009", concluye. "La pérdida operativa del negocio internacional implica una subvención de u$s 268 por pasajero", añadió.

El relevamiento incluye como crítica que sólo el 5% de la oferta de Aerolíneas –medida en "asientos-kilómetros disponibles"– es en destinos sociales, mientras que el 38% es en internacional de larga distancia, donde hay competidoras que pueden brindar el servicio. Otro 18% es en plazas sudamericanas, donde, se afirma, también hay otras firmas que pueden hacer esos vuelos y el 39% restante en el doméstico.

Au Brésil, le secteur financier connaît un formidable essor

07/06/2010

par Virginie Mairet, à Rio de Janeiro

Peu touché par la crise financière de ces dernières années, le secteur bancaire brésilien surfe sur la vague des crédits aux particuliers, après une série de rapprochements et de développements à l'étranger.

Lorsque, en 2002, quelques semaines avant l'élection présidentielle, Goldman Sachs invente le «Lulometro», chargé de mesurer le risque qu'impliquerait pour les marchés l'élection de Luiz Iñacio Lula da Silva, la banque d'investissement est loin d'imaginer que, huit ans plus tard, les banques brésiliennes seraient les premières gagnantes des deux mandats de l'ex-ouvrier métallurgiste. Au sein des Amériques, le Brésil est désormais le seul pays à concurrencer les Etats-Unis. En 2009, la banque latino-américaine la mieux placée était le Banco do Brasil (BB), une institution publique, au septième rang, avec 407 milliards de dollars d'actifs, devançant Itau-Unibanco (349 milliards), qui vient de rentrer dans le Top 10 mondial des capitalisations boursières des banques.

En revanche, côté rentabilité, les Brésiliens détrônent désormais leurs voisins du nord : selon Economatica, un groupe de conseil financier de São Paulo, en 2009 le retour sur fonds propres (ROE) du BB était de 34,74 %, le plus élevé des Amériques, suivi par Itau-Unibanco (24,19 %) et Bradesco (23,82 %). Le premier groupe américain, Goldman Sachs, n'arrive qu'en quatrième position, avec un ROE de 19,82 %.

« C'est d'abord le différentiel de taux d'intérêt qui est à l'origine de cette forte rentabilité », explique Einar Rivero, analyste d'Economatica. Lula a repris à son compte l'orthodoxie monétaire de ses prédécesseurs, en augmentant le taux de base de la Banque Centrale (Selic), par crainte de l'inflation. Même en 2009, quand la politique monétaire s'est faite plus accommodante, pour éviter la récession, le taux réel atteignait encore 5 % - il était nul aux Etats-Unis.

Au contraire de ce qui s'est passé aux Etats-Unis et en Europe, le secteur bancaire a relativement peu souffert de la crise, du fait d'une réglementation plus restrictive, interdisant l'acquisition d'actifs douteux. En novembre 2008, Itau et Unibanco ont fusionné pour créer le premier groupe bancaire d'Amérique latine. Dans la foulée, BB a racheté d'autres institutions régionales, comme Banco do Estado de Santa Catarina (Besc), récupérant ainsi sa position de leader.

Les étrangers à l'affût

L'autre action cruciale du gouvernement pendant la crise a été d'engager les organismes publics (BB, Caixa Economica et la banque d'investissement BNDES) à une politique agressive de crédit aux entreprises et aux particuliers. Avec le retour de la croissance ? 7 % prévus cette année ?, c'est au tour du privé de surenchérir, pour rattraper le terrain perdu.

Enfin, le Brésil assiste à un mouvement de bancarisation accélérée, incluant les familles modestes et les villes de l'intérieur. Bradesco a ainsi annoncé en novembre être présente sous forme d'agences ou de correspondants bancaires dans 100 % des 5.560 municipalités brésiliennes. Dernière tendance : les groupes brésiliens se tournent vers l'étranger. C'est le cas d'Itau-Unibanco, déjà installé en Argentine, au Chili et en Uruguay.

à l'inverse, les groupes étrangers aimeraient leur part du gâteau brésilien. L'espagnole Santander, installée depuis 13 ans dans le pays, est devenue, à force d'acquisitions, la quatrième banque locale. En septembre dernier, elle a levé 14,1 milliards de reais lors de son entrée en Bourse, la plus importante de l'histoire du marché de São Paulo.

« Pour de nouveaux venus, c'est un marché difficile à pénétrer, du fait de la réglementation, et la forte concentration », prévient Einar Rivero. La Santander compte profiter de l'opportunité pour se renforcer au Brésil. Son président mondial, Emílio Botín a déjà annoncé que la filiale brésilienne dépasserait la maison mère dans un futur très prochain. n

Le G20 plaide pour la rigueur en zone euro

07/06/2010

SÉBASTIEN FALLETTI ENVOYÉ SPÉCIAL À BUSAN

Les pays émergents se rangent dans le camp de la rigueur, majoritaire au sein du G20. La pression monte sur les Européens, priés d'intensifier leurs efforts de réduction des déficits.

FINANCES PUBLIQUES Purger l'économie européenne sans briser la reprise mondiale. C'est la délicate équation que tente de résoudre ce week-end le G20, à Busan, le grand port sud-coréen. Les ministres des Finances des vingt plus grandes économies du monde ont donné la clé de l'énigme hier soir, lors de leur première réunion depuis le plan de sauvetage de 750 milliards d'euros déclenché par l'Europe le 9 mai.

JO YONG-HAK/REUTERS Guido Mantega (ministre des Finances du Brésil), Kevin Warsh (gouverneur de la Réserve fédéral des États-Unis), Timothy Geithner (secrétaire au Trésor américain), Elena Salgado (ministre de l'Économie de l'Espagne), Kim Choong-soo (gouverneur de Bank of Korea), Yoon Jeung-hyun (ministre des Finances de la Corée du Sud) et Christine Lagarde, hier, à Busan (Corée du Sud).

Pour eux, l'assainissement des finances publiques dans la zone euro passe avant la stimulation de la croissance. « Il y a un courant majoritaire qui veut faire de la consolidation budgétaire la priorité numéro un », reconnaissait hier Christine Lagarde, ministre de l'Économie, à l'issue du dîner à huis clos des grands argentiers de la planète.

Un appel à la rigueur qui a mis sous pression les Européens, priés d'intensifier leurs efforts pour remettre leurs comptes en ordre. Et qui ont reçu la leçon des pays émergents, en particulier asiatiques, comme la Corée du Sud, qui ont assaini drastiquement leurs finances publiques à l'issue de la crise de 1997, pour mieux redécoller ensuite. À l'heure où leurs économies repartent sur les chapeaux de roues après la crise de Wall Street en 2008, ces nouvelles puissances ne veulent pas payer une seconde fois pour les errements de la zone euro. « Nous devons favoriser la reprise économique, mais, dans le même temps, nous ne pouvons renoncer à la prudence en matière budgétaire », a prévenu le ministre indien, Pranab Mukherjee.

Une piqûre de rappel

Cet appel à la discipline donne des ailes à l'Allemagne dans son combat pour imposer l'austérité dans la zone euro face aux velléités de la France et des pays méditerranéens.

En route pour le pays du MatinCalme, le ministre allemand, Wolfgang Schäuble, n'a pas manqué de renouveler la pression sur ses partenaires européens en rappelant que « les marchés avaient toujours des doutes quant à savoir si les accords négociés seraient réellement appliqués ». Une piqûre de rappel qui venait à point nommé, alors que le commissaire Olli Rehn et le président de la BCE, JeanClaude Trichet, ont dû se fendre d'un exposé détaillé à Busan pour convaincre leurs homologues du G20 de la crédibilité du plan de sauvetage européen de 750 milliards d'euros. Berlin a reçu l'appui du nouveau chancelier de l'Échiquier britannique, George Osborne, qui a appelé les membres de l'eurozone à faire le ménage dans leurs comptes.

Mais, pour sa première sortie internationale, le nouveau chancelier a également rappelé l'importance de soutenir la fragile croissance mondiale pour éviter une rechute. Un appel qui a fait écho au secrétaire d'État américain, Timothy Geithner, qui a plaidé pour des mesures de consolidation budgétaire « compatibles » avec la croissance, prenant ses distances avec le refrain de la rigueur. Une perche saisie par Christine Lagarde, qui a souligné la nécessité de « ne pas étrangler la croissance » , alors que Paris cherche à Washington un allié pour contenir la pression de Berlin.

En attendant le sommet de Toronto fin juin, le camp de la rigueur apparaît nettement majoritaire au sein du G20 comme de l'Eurogroupe, alors que la taxe bancaire défendue par Européens et Américains suscite l'opposition des émergents, du Canada et de l'Australie.

Brésiliens, Mexicains ou Russes achètent des châteaux
La plupart des étrangers sont respectueux des biens acquis en France

07/06/2010

On leur prête des acquisitions coûteuses et des restaurations parfois excentriques. Mais difficile, de nos jours, de savoir avec précision ce que représente la part des investisseurs étrangers s'offrant des châteaux en France. Ce qui est certain, c'est que leur achat ne passe pas inaperçu, s'accompagnant parfois d'anecdotes et de mini-scandales.

Ainsi, tout récemment, l'acquisition à Paris de l'hôtel Lambert par le frère de l'émir du Qatar a fait couler de l'encre. Un parking sous la cour de ce monument classé avait suscité un tollé avant que le projet soit abandonné. Récemment, dans le nord du pays, un riche propriétaire russe qui a fait l'acquisition d'un château aurait fermé la porte au nez d'un architecte des Bâtiments de France venu vérifier que les travaux avaient été réalisés dans les règles de l'art. Peu regardants sur les dépenses, certains n'hésiteraient pas à assouvir quelques caprices, quitte à écorner le patrimoine.

Mais, pour tous les professionnels de la vente, ces quelques dérapages ne font pas loi. La plupart des étrangers sont respectueux des biens acquis. «Ce sont des achats coup de cœur, et les restaurations sont très bien réalisées», indique-t-on chez Mercure, où l'on estime à 20 % la clientèle étrangère. Un pourcentage qui, il y a trois ans, atteignait les 30, voire 40 %, avant que la crise n'ébranle ce marché. Ce dernier reprend aujourd'hui timidement. «Les Anglais reviennent un peu, mais avec des budgets divisés par deux par rapport à 2007», indique Anne de La Sauzay, directrice du groupe immobilier international Mercure, où l'on voit arriver une nouvelle clientèle exotique : des Chinois ou encore des Brésiliens.

Prix moyen de 700 000 euros

«On vend à nouveau mieux : 50 châteaux par an au lieu de 25 environ. Mais les transactions se font à des prix inférieurs. De l'ordre de 700 000 euros en moyenne au lieu de 1,5 million d'euros», explique Bertrand Le Nail, gérant associé du cabinet Le Nail, spécialisé dans la vente de châteaux, et qui constate un taux de rotation important. «Les domaines changent de main plus rapidement», confirme Stéphane Salin chez Barnes. Un phénomène qui touche autant les étrangers que les Français et qui est le signe parfois que la vie de château est plus compliquée qu'on ne le croit. «C'est un lourd vaisseau coûteux», selon Bertrand Le Nail, qui redoute les conséquences d'une récente disposition.

Depuis 2009, pour bénéficier d'un régime fiscal avantageux, obligation est faite pour le propriétaire de conserver le bien immobilier durant 15 ans. «Si on s'en sépare avant, il faut rembourser l'économie fiscale réalisée. Comment peut-on aujourd'hui s'engager sur une si longue période ? À 80 %, les détenteurs de châteaux sont des héritiers, et la majorité rencontre actuellement de vraies difficultés économiques», souligne Bertrand Le Nail. Cette mesure va-t-elle dissuader les Français d'acheter des châteaux ? Si c'est le cas, les acquéreurs étrangers n'en auront que plus de choix.

La taxe bancaire mondiale - une nouvelle fois recalée

Les ministres des Finances du G20, qui se sont réunis pendant deux jours à Pusan, en Corée du Sud,

07/06/2010

MICHEL DE GRANDI

au début du week-end, ne sont pas parvenus à s'entendre sur la mise en place d'une taxe qui serait prélevée sur le système bancaire pour couvrir les coûts d'un éventuel défaut de paiement d'un établissement.

DE NOTRE CORRESPONDANTA TOKYO.

Le Canada soutenu par le Japon, l'Australie et les principaux pays émergents comme le Brésil et l'Inde ont marqué un point : la réunion des ministres des Finances du G20, vendredi et samedi à Pusan, en Corée du Sud, n'est pas parvenue à imposer une taxe mondiale bancaire. Au motif que leurs banques n'ont pas eu besoin de fonds publics pendant la crise déclenchée sur le marché des « subprimes » en 2007, ces pays ont empêché un consensus de poindre. Le débat n'est pas clos pour autant. La ministre de l'Economie française, Christine Lagarde, a concédé que« tout le monde ne sera pas au rendez-vous de la taxe bancaire ». Mais« de nombreux pays sont d'accord pour examiner le principe de taxation, qui devrait être accepté à la prochaine réunion »à Toronto, selon elle. Le communiqué final des ministres du G20 reconnaît que le secteur financier« devrait contribuer de manière équitable et substantielle »à toute crise à venir nécessitant une intervention de la puissance publique. A cette fin,« reconnaissant qu'il existe diverses approches possibles », les ministres se sont entendus pour« mettre en place des principes afin de protéger les contribuables, réduire les risques du système financier, protéger les flux de crédit ».

Un rapport du FMI fin juin

Dans ce cadre, le Fonds monétaire international est chargé de rendre, lors du sommet des chefs d'Etat des 26 et 27 juin à Toronto, un rapport final sur ce sujet. En avril, le FMI avait proposé l'instauration d'une taxe, assise soit sur les actifs des établissements, soit sur les revenus de leurs activités financières. A ce stade, les experts du fonds privilégieraient la première approche. Les établissements financiers devraient s'acquitter d'une taxe similaire à une« prime d'assurance »sur les actifs risqués pour couvrir les coûts d'un éventuel défaut de paiement. Pour le FMI, cette taxe devrait être perçue avant qu'une autre crise financière ne voie le jour. Le fonds ne tranche pas sur la destination du produit de la taxe, à savoir son intégration au budget des Etats ou son versement à un fonds dédié. Les arguments du FMI n'ont pas porté auprès des pays qui n'ont pas connu de crise bancaire. Pas mécontent qu'une partie du G20« ne soutienne pas le concept d'une taxe universelle », Jim Flaherty, le ministre canadien des Finances, a regretté que ce débat« nous ait distraits des problèmes de fond ». Soucieuse de ne pas refermer définitivement la porte, Christine Lagarde a admis que« si certains jugent que ce n'est pas nécessaire car il n'y a pas de risque systémique, on verra en temps voulu ».C'est aussi le discours tenu par le FMI, pour qui le besoin d'un tel mécanisme peut aussi être ressenti à l'avenir par les pays qui jusque-là n'en ont pas eu besoin.« Même si de bonnes réglementations ont été adoptées, on peut s'attendre à de nouvelles défaillances d'institutions. Tout comme l'existence d'un code de la route et de mécanismes pour le faire respecter n'a jamais empêché que des accidents puissent se produire », a expliqué un responsable du fonds.

Bâle 3 : le calendrier est confirmé

Redéfinition. Le calendrier de la réforme du Comité de Bâle sur les exigences en matière de fonds propres et de liquidité est maintenu. A Pusan, les ministres des Finances et les gouverneurs des banques centrales ont confirmé que la réforme menée par les 27 régulateurs bancaires du Comité de Bâle sera présentée en novembre, lors du G20 à Séoul, et mise en place avant la fin 2012. En dépit de l'opposition de certains, le Canada en particulier, de retarder le mouvement. La réforme concerne la redéfinition du cadre réglementaire du secteur bancaire pour aboutir aux accords de Bâle 3. « J'espère que nous resterons dans le calendrier. Il n'y a aucune raison de l'allonger »,a indiqué Christine Lagarde, tout en reconnaissant qu'il s'agit d'un dossier« extraordinairement technique ».Ce sont des matières« trop compliquées pour être bâclées », a-t-elle ajouté.

Petrobras découvre un nouveau gisement au large du Brésil

07/06/2010

La compagnie pétrolière brésilienne Petrobras a annoncé vendredi la découverte d'un nouveau gisement de pétrole estimé à 380 millions de barils, en eaux très profondes. Ce gisement est situé sur le champ de Marlim, à 170 km au large des côtes de l'Etat de Rio de Janeiro, à 4.460 mètres de profondeur. Actuellement, la production du géant latino-américain est de 2,5 millions de barils par jour, un niveau que la direction espère doubler d'ici à 2020 à la suite des importantes découvertes de ces dernières années. La compagnie détient des réserves estimées à 14 milliards de barils.

Brésiliens, Mexicains ou Russes achètent des châteaux
La plupart des étrangers sont respectueux des biens acquis en France

07/06/2010

Prix moyen de 700 000 euros

Le G20 se veut optimiste sur la croissance à venir

07/06/2010

M. DE G.

A défaut d'un accord sur la taxe bancaire, le G20 des ministres des Finances s'est montré plus optimiste sur la croissance et a insisté sur les besoins de politiques nationales différenciées, adaptées aux capacités de chacun.

La récente crise de l'euro, alimentée en fin de semaine par les craintes pour l'économie hongroise, a modifié le calendrier des ministres des Finances et des gouverneurs des banques centrales du G20, réunis en Corée du Sud. Ils ont insisté sur la nécessaire remise en ordre des finances publiques et tenu à rassurer sur la croissance.« L'économie mondiale continue de croître plus vite que prévu », ont-ils précisé dans le communiqué final, tout en avertissant que cette reprise demeure fragile, inégale et mérite d'être consolidée.« La récente volatilité des marchés nous rappelle que des défis gigantesques demeurent », ont prévenu les grands argentiers à l'issue de deux jours de discussions. Sans désigner explicitement la zone euro, le G20 constate que les récentes crises budgétaires, qui ont secoué les marchés financiers, rendent nécessaires« la mise en place de mesures crédibles, favorables à la croissance, pour parvenir à des finances publiques viables ».A trois semaines de la réunion des chefs d'Etat et de gouvernement à Toronto, le G20 rappelle que« les pays en proie à de sérieuses difficultés budgétaires doivent accélérer le rythme de la consolidation ». Mais tout en s'engageant à assainir leurs finances publiques, les dirigeants insistent sur la nécessité de« sauvegarder la reprise économique ». Pris entre deux feux, celui de la rigueur budgétaire et celui du soutien à l'économie, ils font face au dilemme le plus difficile qu'ils auront à résoudre au cours des prochains trimestres.

Discussions très animées

C'est pourquoi ils estiment que les remèdes proposés pour sortir de la crise ne doivent pas être les mêmes pour tous :« En fonction de leurs capacités, les pays accroîtront leurs sources de croissance intérieure, tout en préservant la stabilité macroéconomique. »Bien loin d'imposer une recette unique, le G20 préconise des mesures« différenciées et adaptées à chacune des circonstances nationales ».Avant l'ouverture du sommet, le secrétaire américain au Trésor, Tim Geithner, avait plaidé pour une stimulation globale de la demande intérieure et s'était étonné de sa faiblesse dans certains pays comme le Japon et l'Allemagne. En écho, Masaaki Shirakawa, le gouverneur de la Banque du Japon, s'est félicité d'une reprise plus forte que prévu dans l'Archipel et s'est dit confiant dans le redémarrage de la demande intérieure. Pour l'Allemagne, que le secrétaire américain qualifie« d'économie européenne excédentaire », c'est la chancelière Angela Merkel, qui, en marge d'une visite du président russe Dimitri Medvedev à Berlin, a rappelé son engagement à réduire ses déficits publics et à inscrire la première économie européenne dans une croissance durable. Comme chaque fois, Tim Geithner a pointé du doigt la Chine, qui doit, selon lui, aller vers un système de change plus flexible, élément clef d'une croissance mondiale plus homogène. Il a été rejoint sur ce point par le Fonds monétaire international (FMI).« Le FMI continue de penser que le renminbi est encore réellement sous-évalué. Même un réajustement de 20 à 25 % ne va pas réduire les déséquilibres. Il faut faire davantage », a déclaré Dominique Strauss-Kahn, son directeur général. Entre juillet 2005 et juillet 2008, la parité de la devise chinoise par rapport au dollar est passée de 8,28 à 6,83.Interrogé sur le climat des discussions durant ces deux jours, le vice-ministre coréen des Finances, Shin Je-yoon, a indiqué à l'issue de la rencontre :« Les discussions ont été animées, très animées…

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