Brazil powers up
31 May 2010 | By Will Jackson
The suggestion that Brazil could be the world's fifth-biggest power by the next decade would have once sounded far-fetched, but the election of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva heralded a new era. But how well placed is Brazil to cope with the challenges ahead? Will Jackson reports.
Passengers travelling with TAM, a Brazilian airline, were last month posed a provocative question as they settled down and chewed their complimentary toffees. "Brazil will be the world's fifth-biggest power by the next decade," read an advert in Portuguese, attached to the headrest in front. "How will your company benefit from this fact?"
The suggestion that Brazil could be on the cusp of becoming a major economic force would have sounded far-fetched a decade ago. But the election of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva - or "Lula" for short - as the country's president in October 2002, heralded a new era of economic stability and wealth creation. Brazil's GDP grew 3%-6% each year between 2004 and 2008, while interest rates fell by over 10 percentage points.
Even the banking crisis which engulfed the developed world in the fourth quarter of 2008 failed to put a significant dent in Brazil's economic progress, and the country experienced a relatively mild contraction of 0.2% in 2009. Indeed, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a rebound to GDP growth of 5.5% this year.
This resilient growth, coupled with economic decline in the established world powers, has imbued Brazil with a growing self-confidence, and nowhere is this more apparent than in Lula's desire for political influence beyond the country's borders. The president joined forces with Turkey's prime minister in May, to negotiate a nuclear fuel swap with Iran - despite direct lobbying from America to support sanctions.
Commentators, including Kevin Casas-Zamora, a senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, a public policy organisation based in Washington DC, noted the significance of Lula's defiance. "A reformed Brazil has shed its subservient past," he wrote in April. "Instead of becoming a victim of globalisation, like many in the underdeveloped South, Brazil emerged a victor to claim a leading role in world affairs."
But despite Brazil's development, risks to future growth remain. A recent uptick in inflation and interest rates has led to fears that the country could overheat, as wages rise and the country's creaking infrastructure struggles to cope. Concerns also surround the potential impact of speculative inflows from overseas, and the country's growing dependence on exports to China. So how well placed is Brazil to cope with the challenges ahead? And what has made its economy so apparently sturdy? (article continues below)
It has not always been this way. Episodes of financial instability litter Brazil's past; from the oil shock of the late 1970s (which doubled the country's import bill and triggered inflation of 110% in 1980), to the debt default of 1983, to the knock-on effects of the Tequila, Asian and Russian crises in the mid- to late-1990s. Rapidly escalating interest rates were never far away towards the end of the twentieth century, and the country suffered annual inflation of 764% a year between 1990 and 1995.
As recently as 2002, investors were more preoccupied with the idea that Brazil might follow Argentina, Russia, and Ecuador in defaulting on its public debt, rather than its potential growth. During the summer and autumn of that year, spreads on Brazilian government bonds over American Treasuries ballooned out to 2,400 basis points. Brazil's currency, the real, fell sharply against the dollar, and inflationary pressures prompted the central bank to hike interest rates from 18% to 25%.
Indeed, the situation became so grave that the Brazilian authorities received approval for a $30 billion rescue package from the IMF in August 2002, despite their earlier assurances that assistance would not be needed.
Markets were spooked by concerns over debt sustainability, but also by the prospect of a win for one of the opposition candidates in the impending presidential election. Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Brazil's president since 1995, had overseen a raft of progressive policies designed to create a stable economic environment. These included abandoning the exchange rate peg, introducing the real (as finance minister in 1994), inflation targeting and the requirement to run a primary surplus - which allowed the government to begin reducing its dollar-denominated foreign debt.
Fears that Lula's background in the trade unions (he led a metalworkers union and was briefly imprisoned for a strike conducted in 1980) would be incompatible with Cardoso's business-friendly reforms faded after the October election, however. Statements on the budget and on debt, and the continuation of interest rate hikes, reassured markets that the new administration would continue Cardoso's conservative approach to the economy. Spreads on Brazil's external debt soon fell.
"Going back to 2002, which was when Lula took over, I admit I was a little bit concerned with the debt dynamics," says Claudia Calich, the head of emerging markets for Invesco in New York. "Bond prices collapsed, so the market was pricing in almost a certainty of default. The debt dynamics were much worse than they are now - you had more external debt, the country's reserves were much lower.
"Arguably, if that had persisted for a long time and had been combined with bad economic policies, the country could have gone into default at some point. But what changed the sentiment of the market was that Lula pursued relatively orthodox policies, along the same lines as Fernando Henrique Cardoso." According to the Center for Global Development in Washington DC, Brazil's external debt-to-GDP ratio had fallen to 18% by 2008, compared with an average of 27% for countries in Latin America.
In addition to improved debt fundamentals, Brazil's central bank also began to get inflation back under control. Inflation, which was well above target in 2002 and 2003, fell to 7.6% in 2004, and 5.7% in 2005. For the next three years it moved in a range of 3.1%-5.9%, allowing the bank to cut interest rates from over 25% in 2003, to about 13% in 2008 (see graph, below). "[The central bank] are not formally independent, but in practice there is quite a degree of autonomy," says Calich. "It is a very credible institution and they have good people in their ranks."
This new-found stability bolstered Brazil's resilience to external shocks in the run-up to the financial crisis. Robert Wood, a senior analyst and deputy director of country risk for Latin America at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) in New York, says Cardoso's introduction of the "three pillars" - stronger public finances, inflation-targeting and a flexible exchange rate - was crucial. "This is the policy mix that countries like Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Chile and Mexico adopted after the crises in the 1990s, and which stood them in good stead going into Lehmans," he says.
Growth, meanwhile, was boosted by falling unemployment and buoyant global economic conditions. The commodities boom benefited Brazil in particular, as appetite for the country's natural resources rose sharply - notably Chinese demand for iron ore (one of Brazil's biggest exports, alongside soybeans and coffee, according to the World Bank). In 2006, the country's GDP outpaced inflation for the first time in over 50 years, and by the time Lehmans collapsed in September, 2008, the economy was growing at about 7%.
As the crisis took a grip on markets, other factors strengthened Brazil's economic position. Its banks had little direct exposure to the "toxic" assets that plagued the developed world's financial system, and the Brazilian government was in a position to deploy several countercyclical measures. These included tax breaks for struggling sectors such as household appliance manufacturers and the automobile industry, support for indebted companies, and raising the minimum wage.
The central bank also slashed interest rates from 13.75% to 8.75% in early 2009 and - following an annualised contraction of about 13% in the final quarter of 2008 - a V-shaped recovery began to take hold. **
Brazil's growth, and its resilience, has attracted interest from foreign investors and fund managers (see box, below). What excites them, however, is the prospect of a consumer-led boom as the country's population becomes wealthier. Calich says economic stability is allowing Brazil to issue fixed-rate and longer-dated debt (the longest-dated government bonds in the market mature in 2041), creating conditions for longer-term lending to consumers.
Brazil funds for British investors
The number of Brazil-specific funds available to British investors is set to grow this year, with the launch of the first actively-managed onshore Brazil Oeic. Allianz Global Investors expects to unveil the portfolio in October for Michael Konstantinov, who runs the group's £850m RCM Bric Stars fund. The Brazil Oeic will invest predominantly in Brazilian companies but will be able to allocate up to 30% in other Latin American equity markets.
The Allianz fund follows hard on the heels of the first Brazil-focused investment trust, from JP Morgan Asset Management (JPMAM). The trust, announced in March and launched in April, raised £46.7m during its initial public offering. The trust uses a bottom-up strategy and is managed by Sebastian Luparia and Luis Carrillo. Luparia is based in Buenos Aires, while Carrillo works in New York. They aim to identify opportunities with a two- to three-year horizon.
The biggest player in the actively-managed equity sector is HSBC, with its £1.3 billion Luxembourg-domiciled GIF Brazil Equity portfolio (see table, below). The fund, which is run by José Cuervo, held 30% of its assets in financials at the end of April, followed by 20% in basic materials and 11% in oil and gas stocks. The portfolio invests directly in Brazil, but also in companies which conduct most of their business in the country.
For investors seeking passive exposure to the Brazil story, there are tracker funds run by KBC Asset Management and iShares. The Irish-domiciled iShares MSCI Brazil exchange traded fund has a total expense ratio of 0.74%. It tracks the performance of the MSCI Brazil index and its biggest sector allocations on May 4 were materials (28%), financials (23%) and energy (23%). Both products lagged the active equity funds over the past 12 months, but outperformed on a three-year basis.
"The impact is that it creates a price for Brazilian risk, so that has allowed credit creation to take off," Calich explains. "Ten or 20 years ago with hyper-inflation it was hard to get credit, because hyper-inflation was the rule and the currency was either collapsing or being changed. This increase in the extension of government debt - and more importantly the fall in government yields in Brazilian real terms - has allowed credit to increase and mortgages have taken off.
"This also then allows the middle class of Brazilians to finally emerge. Purchasing power has improved. In the past, either you had a small minority of wealthier individuals who would buy things in cash and everybody else struggled to make regular purchases. You're also getting a consumer credit culture, so you're suddenly getting this large part of the population that at one point was unable, but now they're becoming middle class and they're buying things on credit."
A study by the Getulio Vargas Foundation estimates that 10m Brazilians joined the middle class between 2004 and 2008, and Wood says credit rose from about 25% to 45% of GDP over the same period. While mortgage spending remains low (about 1% of GDP), some commentators forecast a rise to 10% of GDP over the next five years.
Mario Fleck, the president of Rio Bravo Investments in São Paulo, says the mortgage and credit markets will develop further, albeit slowly. "In the old days of high interest rates and high inflation, people would not buy houses with terms beyond 2-3 years and most people would buy their cars almost for cash," says Fleck. "The mentality in Brazilian culture is that it doesn't matter how much you pay as long as your income is enough to pay the monthly instalments, and that's true for buying a fridge, a car or a house. But the trend is still very positive for the internal market here."
Poverty remains a significant problem in Brazil - the World Bank estimates that 9% of Brazil's 200m population was living on the equivalent of less than $2 a day in 2008, down from 22% in 2003. But the impact of rising wealth and credit creation among the middle classes can already be seen on the streets of Natal, the state capital of Rio Grande do Norte in north-east Brazil - one of the poorest areas of the country. Housing developments are springing up across the city, as middle class buyers move into apartment blocks for security and parking.
The region is attracting foreign money, and organisers estimate that this year's Nordeste Invest conference - designed to boost real estate and tourism in north-east Brazil - generated about R1.8 billion (£660m) of new business. British companies already operating in the area include Charlemagne Capital and Salamanca Capital, which owns 50% of Ecocil, a local developer. Rupert Hayward, a director at Salamanca, says the north-east is attractive because of a lack of competition from the bigger listed construction firms, and lower land costs.
Outside of real estate, Fleck says wider credit availability offers "a huge opportunity" for other sectors. "With this capitalisation of the economy and more reasonable inflation and interest rates, we have big opportunities for retailers, for consumption, for electronics, and everything that comes with an emergent middle class," Fleck adds. "That could mean insurance and tourism - things on which people are not used to having the money available to spend."
In addition to credit expansion, higher wages in the public sector are also enabling consumers to spend more. Between 2003 and 2009, the number of civil servants increased by about 10%, but the total federal wage bill more than doubled in nominal terms. Wood says the government increased the minimum wage by 12% in 2009 - an increase of 7% in real terms, which will feed through to about 40% of workers.
But while higher wages and greater access to credit is bringing better housing and living conditions, fears about inflation are once again coming to the fore. The country's economy grew by about 2.5% in the first quarter of 2010, an annualised rate of 10%. The EIU forecasts growth of 6.3% this year - well above the IMF's estimate and too fast to be sustainable, according to Wood.
In particular, there are concerns that the country has spent too much money on higher wages and too little on infrastructure to support greater consumption and trade. Wood says Brazil is "notoriously poor" at infrastructure, in contrast to other emerging nations such as China. "Brazil has spent very little in public investment as a share of GDP - it's only around 1 or 2%," he says. "During this boom, you've had an increased tax take but unfortunately the quality of spending hasn't been great. In the crisis, it went into civil servants' pay packets rather than being used to fund projects to increase productivity."
According to the World Bank, Brazil could significantly reduce its expenditure on logistics through investment in transport infrastructure - at present, it takes twice as long for Brazil to export than America. The government has ramped up spending by introducing the "PAC" accelerated growth programme, which aims to spend up to R40.5 billion on logistics, including R27.7 billion on almost 5,000 kilometres of roads - although Wood notes that only 50%-60% of PAC money has been spent so far.
Investors sense an opportunity. According to Jonathon Ong, a portfolio manager at Macquarie Funds Group, demand for electricity is growing at 1.2-1.3 times GDP a year, while vehicle traffic is rising at a similar rate. He has been overweight Brazilian infrastructure for several months, including investments in electric utilities, toll-roads, railways and ports. Ong points to government estimates that R90 billion will be spent on Brazilian infrastructure in the next five years - much of it related to the country's hosting of the World Cup in 2014 and the Olympic Games in 2016.
But some commentators remain sceptical on PAC. Fleck recalls that even before the economy slowed during the banking crisis the country's ports were struggling to cope with increased shipping. He dismisses the programme as "window dressing" but says that better infrastructure is crucial. "Everything is going very well so far, but down the road Brazil does not have the infrastructure to grow beyond 5%, maybe 6% a year," he adds. "Doing some work on this infrastructure might change Brazil forever."
Going hand in hand with the uptick in inflation are fears that Brazil could attract speculative capital inflows from overseas. In its April World Economic Outlook, the IMF noted the strong recovery in Latin America and the Caribbean, but also warned that inflation-targeting countries in the region may be vulnerable to short-term inflows as they seek to prevent overheating. "There is [an] argument for keeping interest rates low for a longer period than justified by domestic cyclical considerations, because higher interest rates may attract speculative capital inflows," it said.
Brazil took measures to limit speculative foreign inflows in 2009, with the introduction of a 2% tax in October. "The received wisdom is that it doesn't have much effect, but it coincided with the exuberance towards Brazil in the third quarter," says Wood. "One could argue that the signal sent by policymakers was that they are ready to do something, to throw some sand in the works. Managing the capital inflows will be a challenge, but they've done reasonably well so far." Wood says he does not expect the tax to increase, unless there is further appreciation in the real.
Despite the risks of inflation and speculative capital inflows, Wood says most of the concerns centre around Brazil's ability to manage growth - a problem that is "a luxury to have". However, the full realisation of Brazil's potential is still some way off. "The next period is about consolidating the stabilisation story," Wood says. "Brazil is well positioned to grow 4.5 - 5%, but even at those rates you're not going to see a rapid convergence with income levels in developed markets. So although it's doing well, and the middle class is doing well, the economy will still be lagging behind the developed markets for a while."
• Will Jackson was a guest of the Association for Real Estate and Tourism Development (ADIT) at the 2010 Nordeste Invest conference in Natal, Brazil.
**Note: This article was updated on June 1. Robert Wood's comment that "policymakers threw everything but the kitchen sink at the meltdown" referred to countries in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and China - not Brazil. This quote was removed.
April industrial production: Brazil's bubble gets bigger
June 1, 2010 7:45pm | by Jonathan Wheatley
Yet more evidence that Brazil's economy is growing too quickly for comfort: figures for industrial production in April published today showed a year on year increase of 17.4 per cent, more even than the whopping 16.1 per cent consensus among market economists. The quarter on quarter, seasonally adjusted annualised rate of growth was even bigger, at 19.1 per cent.
It is true that April's figure actually showed a decline from March, falling by 0.7 per cent (the consensus was for a fall of 1.0 per cent). But this was probably due to a slowdown in inventory replacement, after March's month on month surge of 3.4 per cent.
Growth certainly seems to be advancing in fits and starts this year. As Maurício Oreng of Itaú Unibanco wrote to clients this morning:
Our tracking of Q2 GDP growth stands at 4.9% qoq/saar, a welcome moderation from Q1, when the qoq/saar growth was probably a double digit. Even so, manufacturing activity suggests an overheated economy. Further policy action (both fiscal and monetary) is needed to re-balance demand and supply and quell inflationary pressures.
The monetary action will probably come next week, when the central bank's monetary policy committee is expected to raise interest rates for the second time in two meetings. Guido Mantega, finance minister, has promised fiscal action in the form of R$10bn in budget cuts. But they have yet to materialise.
Meanwhile, Brazil appears to be heading deeper into bubble territory.
Los ministros de Industria y Economía se reunirán la semana próxima con sus pares de Brasil para reequilibrar el desarrollo industrial
La ministra de Industria y Turismo, Débora Giorgi, y el de Economía y Finanzas, Amado Boudou, se reunirán la semana próxima con sus pares de Brasil, Miguel Jorge y Guido Mantega, para "trabajar en el desarrollo de herramientas comerciales que permitan equilibrar la balanza comercial entre ambos países", se informó ayer oficialmente.
La reunión, que se llevará a cabo en Buenos Aires, fue acordada la semana pasada en Río de Janeiro durante el encuentro que mantuvieron los presidentes Cristina Fernández de Kirchner y Luiz Inacio Da Silva. Giorgi, a través de un comunicado de prensa, sostuvo que "nuestro objetivo es trabajar en medidas que nos permitan reequilibrar el desarrollo industrial de ambos países y equiparar la balanza comercial, que por ahora resulta desfavorable para Argentina".
La ministra se refirió así a los números que publicó ayer la Secretaría de Comercio Exterior de Brasil (SECEX), donde se indica que, en lo que va del año, el saldo comercial resultó negativo para Argentina en 920 millones de dólares. Detalló que en la "agenda de trabajo" que abordarán los ministros contempla temas como "la necesidad de profundizar el sistema de pago en moneda local, la integración de cadenas productivas, el financiamiento de las exportaciones con fondos del Banco Nacional de Desarrollo de Brasil (BNDES) y eliminación de las barreras de acceso al mercado brasileño".
Giorgi destacó que el saldo comercial positivo de Brasil con el mundo en los primeros cinco meses del año disminuyó en 3.687 millones de dólares, con respecto al mismo período del 2009, mientras que en el intercambio con Argentina aumentó en 954 millones de dólares. "En este contexto de déficit, parece increíble que sigamos escuchando algunas voces relacionadas con la importación que agitan fantasmas en la relación comercial, que si bien es profunda también debe recorrer el camino de la equiparación del desequilibrio comercial", afirmó Giorgi.
La ministra sostuvo el déficit con el principal socio del Mercosur refleja el "fuerte crecimiento de la actividad económica en nuestro país -6,4 % en el primer trimestre- y el aumento de la producción industrial -9,2 %, enero-abril". Explicó además, que el crecimiento industrial impulsa la mayor importación de bienes de capital, partes y piezas, e insumos industriales, por caso mineral de hierro que no se produce en la Argentina y que es requerido por la siderurgia, que lidera el crecimiento industrial detrás del sector automotriz.
En ese sentido, relacionó directamente el déficit con Brasil con la expansión récord de la industria automotriz en Argentina durante 2010, un sector que tiene una estructura deficitaria con el país vecino. Al respecto sostuvo que "para revertir esta situación, Argentina tiene en marchas un programa de financiamiento exclusivo para el sector automotriz con fondos de la ANSES por 350 millones de pesos, para desarrollar el autopartismo local, además de los 8.000 millones anunciados el lunes por la presidenta para financiar inversiones productivas", puntualizó la ministra de Industria y Turismo.
Por último, Giorgi, al comparar el déficit actual que tiene Argentina con Brasil respecto al del 2008 en los primeros cinco meses del año, dijo que se redujo un 58 por ciento debido a que pasó de 2175 millones de dólares a 920 millones de dólares.
LAS VARIABLES DE UNA DURA DISCUSION EN PEKIN POR LAS EXPORTACIONES DE ACEITE DE SOJA
El difícil arte de pulsear con China
Argentina, Miércoles, 2 de junio de 2010
Dentro del hermetismo con el que se desarrollan las negociaciones, trascendió que una salida posible sería consensuar un control voluntario de ambas partes a sus exportaciones: calzados y textiles chinos y aceites argentinos.
"Si hay hermetismo, es porque la negociación es dura", comentan cerca de la delegación argentina que viajó a China para resolver la traba que los asiáticos impusieron contra el aceite de soja. Mientras los chinos se quejan de la política de monitoreo comercial que aplica Argentina, los funcionarios locales incorporaron a la mesa de negociación el persistente saldo comercial bilateral desfavorable. La salida sería, según indican fuentes cercanas a la negociación, consensuar un acuerdo voluntario de exportación. Implicaría mantener las exportaciones de aceite de soja a cambio de que China otorgue cupos a sus exportaciones de calzado, textiles y otros productos afectados por las medidas antidumping y las licencias no automáticas de importación que aplica el Ministerio de Industria argentino. Desde el Senasa aseguraron a este diario que la parte sanitaria ya está arreglada. Resta lo más difícil.
En un doble juego de defenderse y procurar evitar defensas de terceros, el Gobierno busca, al igual que cualquier país en materia comercial, limitar la entrada de productos que afecten la industria local y maximizar las posibilidades de colocar las exportaciones. Para negociar la traba local a la importación de alimentos, en dos semanas recibirá la visita de los ministros de Economía y Desarrollo de Brasil, Guido Mantega y Miguel Jorge. A la par, otros funcionarios buscan que China deje de restringir sus compras de aceite de soja, segundo producto de exportación después de la harina de soja.
Además de la cuestión "proteccionista", está la intención de China de incorporar valor agregado, reduciendo sus compras de aceite para elevar las de poroto de soja, de forma que su propia industria aceitera se desarrolle. La (implícita) respuesta provino del ministro de Economía, Amado Boudou. "El Gobierno está trabajando muy fuerte para agregar valor a las exportaciones a China, de manera que salga más aceite que poroto de soja", indicó.
Durante abril y mayo no hubo embarques de aceite de soja, porque China elevó los topes máximos aceptables de solvente por litro. Como Argentina abastece el 45 por ciento de la demanda china de este producto, la medida afecta al país directamente. Pero las empresas que operan en el sector son, en su gran mayoría, multinacionales con sede en todos los países productores y vendedores, y utilizan tecnología de punta. Por ello, que estas empresas vean dificultadas en llegar al nuevo requerimiento tiene que ver con el exagerado piso asiático y no con una deficiencia local.
Una de las razones que habrían movido a China a aplicar la medida es la política de comercio administrado que se ejecuta desde la cartera de Industria. A partir de los antidumpings y las licencias no automáticas de importación, procuran controlar la entrada de productos chinos que amenacen con destruir puestos de trabajo en la industria local. Estas modalidades están previstas por la OMC, y de hecho en ningún caso China recusó su aplicación, cosa que sí ocurrió entre los asiáticos y Estados Unidos o la Unión Europea.
Según comentan cerca de la negociación, una opción para dirimir el conflicto sería desarrollar un acuerdo voluntario de comercio, algo similar a lo que ocurre entre Argentina y Brasil. "No es el camino más directo, tampoco es sencillo, pero es factible", indican. De adoptarse, se podría mantener el nivel de ventas de aceite a cambio de negociar la entrada de ciertos productos chinos. En última instancia, se trataría de una entrada controlada y custodiada.
De la reunión en Pekín con el viceministro de Comercio Exterior, Shan Zhong, participaron el secretario de Comercio y Relaciones Económicas Internacionales, Alfredo Chiaradía; el secretario de Industria, Eduardo Bianchi; el embajador en China, César Mayoral, y el presidente del Senasa, Jorge Amaya. "El diálogo continuará por vía diplomática hasta tener un entendimiento en las próximas semanas", indicó Chiaradía. Durante la jornada de hoy tendrá lugar otro encuentro a nivel técnico.
El viceministro chino, en tanto, manifestó que "la visita es una muestra de buena voluntad de la Argentina para encaminar aún más el vínculo entre ambos países". Otra razón de la traba al aceite de soja tendría que ver con la estrategia global china de buscar reducir los precios de sus productos de importación, para contener la inflación interna que mina su competitividad.
Más allá de la importancia estratégica de China como socio comercial, los especialistas explican que la Argentina está bien parada para encarar esta negociación. Es que, por el volumen de producción local de aceite de soja, son exportaciones difíciles de reemplazar. Según un estudio interno del Senasa, los asiáticos tendrían aceite en stock para abastecerse por dos o tres meses. Pasado ese tiempo, deberían volver a comprar el producto.
La delegación argentina agregó un condimento adicional a la negociación. A la par que el comercio bilateral se ha incrementado fuertemente desde 2003, los funcionarios resaltaron que el déficit bilateral para la Argentina se viene incrementando desde 2008. En aquel año el rojo fue de 700 millones de dólares, en 2009 llegó a 1200 millones y en el primer cuatrimestre del año ya está en 800 millones (con una proyección anual de 2400 millones, el doble que el año pasado y más del triple que en 2008).
Informe: Javier Lewkowicz.
El FMI avisa de que "no basta" con las acciones anticrisis ya aprobadas por España
El "tijeretazo" no colma las expectativas del Fondo Monetario Internacional, que vuelve a reclamar al Gobierno central que flexibilice el mercado de trabajo, sin precisar en qué forma, y actuaciones económicas "urgentes y decisivas".
EL DÍA, S/C de Tenerife
El director gerente del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), Dominique Strauss-Khan, ha elogiado en los últimos días, por activa y por pasiva, la medidas adoptadas por el Gobierno español para afrontar la crisis económica, pero también ha dejado claro que "no bastan" y que es imprescindible una "flexibilización del mercado" laboral. Una opinión que comparten a pies juntillas organismos internacionales de la talla de la Organización para la Cooperación y el Desarrollo Económico (OCDE) y el propio Eurobanco.
El FMI reiteró ya el 24 de mayo, el mismo día en que el Boletín Oficial del Estado (BOE) publicó el Real Decreto Ley que contiene las medidas urgentes adoptadas por el Gobierno central para reducir el déficit público, que la economía española requiere de reformas amplias y de largo alcance para controlar el déficit fiscal, rebajar el elevado endeudamiento y adaptar su sistema bancario al signo de los nuevos tiempos.
En un informe hecho público ese día, el Fondo indica que se impone reformar los sistemas bancario y de pensiones y modificar en profundidad el mercado laboral. "El ajuste está en marcha pero la recuperación de la economía de España será frágil y débil durante mucho tiempo, a la vez que la incertidumbre es amplia y las condiciones del mercado podrían aún deteriorarse más tanto para el sector público como para el privado", según advierten los autores del estudio, que recomiendan, por ello, adoptar tres actuaciones prioritarias:
Consolidación fiscal de las finanzas públicas para ponerlas sobre bases sustentables.
Flexibilizar el mercado laboral para promover el empleo y su reasignación en los distintos sectores.
Reformar el sector bancario para cimentar su eficiencia y sostenibilidad.
El organismo sostiene que estas reformas, aplicadas de manera conjunta, producirían sinergias. Y a modo de ejemplo indica que una modificación del mercado laboral acompañada de cambios en mercados de bienes y servicios dispararía inversiones, aumentaría el empleo y reduciría precios, fortaleciendo, de paso, las finanzas públicas y el sector bancario.
El documento remarca que España deberá reformar el sistema de pensiones y financiero para adecuarlos a los requerimientos actuales. El FMI hace hincapié en la necesidad de reformar la legislación sobre el funcionamiento de las cajas de ahorros, que cuentan con impedimentos legales para fusionarse o para recibir inversores externos.
Tras difundirse el informe de este organismo internacional, el Ministerio de Economía y Hacienda emitió una nota en la que se limitó a apuntar que es obvio que "para el FMI es crucial acelerar las reformas estructurales anunciadas por el Ejecutivo". El Fondo, de entrada, valora las medidas de ajuste de Zapatero, pero pide, además de las antes citadas actuaciones, un recorte en las prestaciones sanitarias para reducir deuda.
Guerra al número rojo
España debe bajar su déficit en 9,4 puntos porcentuales en la próxima década, una de las reducciones más drásticas del mundo, siempre según cálculos del FMI, que defiende que un buen plan de ajuste podría, incluso, acelerar la actividad económica.
El grueso de los especialistas considera que, con estas sugerencias, el FMI ha hecho una llamada de atención a los países ricos en general para que la vuelta al crecimiento no los haga "complacientes" sobre los números rojos de sus cuentas públicas.
El FMI, que acaba de divulgar sendos informes sobre la situación fiscal en el mundo, estima que los países ricos tendrán que reducir su déficit en 8,75 puntos porcentuales de su Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) durante la próxima década, más que lo previsto anteriormente, para que su deuda vuelva al 60% del PIB de media en el 2030, el porcentaje de antes de la crisis.
En el caso de España, que ha sufrido una recesión más larga que la mayoría de sus vecinos y donde los ingresos públicos han caído también en mayor medida, la corrección del déficit debe ser más profunda, insiste el Fondo.
"Las medidas tomadas son importantes, van en la dirección correcta, al mejorar la credibilidad del ajuste en ese país", dijo en una rueda de prensa el director de asuntos fiscales del Fondo, Carlo Cottarelli.
El Gobierno español, como ya se ha informado, rebajará los sueldos de los empleados públicos en 2010, congelará las pensiones en 2011 y reducirá la inversión pública, entre otras acciones, las cuales han hecho temer un retroceso de la actividad económica en el país, al bajar la demanda interna.
Cottarelli reconoció que ese temor existe, pero dijo que la experiencia de ajuste en otros países demuestra que su efecto sobre el crecimiento depende de la solidez de los planes del Gobierno.
"Si el ajuste fiscal es creíble, podría incluso dar un empujón a la actividad económica, porque la gente preverá tasas de interés reales más bajas en el futuro y menos volatilidad" en los mercados, dijo Cottarelli, que agregó que en el caso de España, un buen plan de reducción del déficit podría estimular la recuperación al disipar cualquier duda sobre su capacidad para pagar la deuda.
El FMI se queja de la falta de detalle en los planes de los gobiernos de los países ricos en general para sanear sus cuentas, y ha querido llenar el vacío con su propia receta. En esta línea, recomienda concentrarse sobre todo en recortar el gasto público, con la subida en dos años de la edad de jubilación y la reducción de los sueldos de los empleados públicos, la inversión social, los subsidios agrícolas y el presupuesto militar.
Disipar dudas
A juicio del FMI, un factor clave será estabilizar el gasto público en salud, que en España supera el 6% del PIB, y en ese sentido el organismo aconseja reducir la cobertura.
España y otros países que requieren un gran ajuste presupuestario tampoco podrán escaparse a la subida de gravámenes. El FMI sugirió elevar los impuestos sobre los bienes raíces, el tabaco, el alcohol, los combustibles y el Impuesto sobre el Valor Añadido (IVA).
Además, propone gravar las emisiones de contaminación o subastar los permisos de emisión de gases, lo que además de mejorar el medio ambiente supondría una nueva fuente de ingresos públicos.
Ante la dificultad de adoptar medidas como las sugeridas por el FMI, los gobiernos podrían caer en la tentación de renunciar a bajar la deuda y simplemente aspirar a estabilizarla a un nivel más alto que antes de la crisis, en palabras de Cottarelli, que advirtió de que eso generaría tasas de interés más elevadas y un menor crecimiento a largo plazo.
El director gerente del FMI, que el jueves pasado se apresuró a elogiar al Gobierno español "por las decisiones que ha tomado", hizo suyas estas consideraciones en una rueda de prensa en Brasilia, donde se entrevistó con el ministro de Hacienda de ese país, Guido Mantega.
Dominique Strauss-Kahn, en línea con lo que una misión del FMI observó la semana pasada, tras una serie de consultas con el Gobierno español, apuntó que es necesario "flexibilizar el mercado de trabajo", aunque no precisó en qué forma. "Le cabe al Gobierno español trabajar con los sindicatos y la sociedad" para avanzar en ese sentido, declaró el director gerente del FMI, quien recordó que este organismo no tiene en este momento ningún programa en marcha con el Gobierno español.
FACTBOX-Key political risks to watch in Brazil
May 31 (Reuters) - Brazil's presidential election in October looks less risky to investors than any other in the last quarter of a century and the economy has bounced back after a brief recession, but there are still investment risks to watch in Brazil this year.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's chief of staff, Dilma Rousseff, is the ruling Workers' Party candidate to succeed him. She has closed the gap on her main rival, Jose Serra, a former Sao Paulo state Governor Jose Serra from the centrist opposition PSDB party.
Most analysts make Rousseff the favorite because she can count on support from the hugely popular Lula and will be helped by the rebounding economy.
Unlike previous elections, there is no clear market favorite because neither of the main contenders is expected to break with the mostly market-friendly policies in place for the past decade: a free-floating currency, inflation control, and fiscal discipline. Some investors prefer Serra for his party's centrist stance and his managerial experience.
In an effort to win over centrist voters and avoid unsettling investors, Rousseff has emphasized market-friendly proposals so far in the campaign.
Serra, who believes the government should be active in economic affairs, has yet to spell out MANY specific policy proposals. However, he recently called for lower interest rates and urged an overhaul of Brazil's costly pension system.
Rousseff, who was endorsed by the center-left Workers' Party in February, has praised the central bank and pledged continuity. She has said the bank should keep focusing on controlling inflation in coming years before it could consider economic and job growth when setting monetary policy.
Serra wants the central bank to look at the broader economy and not just inflation when setting interest rates. He says the central bank should have cut interest rates more aggressively during the 2008 global financial crisis.
There is also some doubt about how firmly the candidates would push for a second generation of structural reforms to ensure Brazil's international competitiveness if elected.
Both agree on the need to overhaul Brazil's complicated tax system to encourage investment but have not provided many details. Serra wants to reform the pension system by cutting benefits for some civil servants, while Rousseff favors a piecemeal reform that would raise more money to finance the growing pension deficit and alter some retirement rules.
Neither proposes nationalizing private companies. But Rousseff, and to a lesser extent Serra, favor a strong role for state firms in the economy, a position that gained support after low-cost loans by state banks helped Brazil's economy recover from the global crisis. Larger state companies could weaken private sector participation in sectors such as banking, oil, and utilities.
Rousseff has said growth of state banks would not infringe on private banks, which she said were necessary to drive economic expansion and spur competition.
Government plans to revive state-owned telephone company Telebras (TELB4.SA) to expand broadband Internet access have sent its shares sharply higher, but further moves to strengthen Telebras could depress shares of private telecoms. Lula also wants to strengthen state-owned power company Eletrobras [ELET6.SA], though the intent may be to expand mostly abroad.
Serra, who launched his candidacy in April, is widely believed to be the tougher of the two main candidates on fiscal discipline and has said he would cap current expenditures, potentially paving the way for swifter interest rate and tax cuts.
What to watch:
-- Serra and Rousseff will name their economic advisors in coming weeks. A left-wing choice could unnerve investors and send jitters through financial markets.
-- Details of Serra's economic proposals, particularly fiscal and monetary policy.
GOVERNMENT SPENDING
The government is expected to maintain a high level of spending before the election, putting pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates to curb inflation. Public spending rose sharply in 2009, eroding the primary budget surplus to an eight-year low of 2 percent of gross domestic product. Finance Minister Guido Mantega has pledged to pursue a surplus of 3.3 percent of GDP in 2010 but inflation still remains on track to surpass the center of the government's year-end target.
What to watch:
-- Weak monthly primary surplus figures would indicate worsening fiscal discipline and could push up interest rate futures.
-- Lula and Mantega could put increasing pressure on central bank chief Henrique Meirelles to keep expected interest rate hikes to a minimum so as not to jeopardize the economic recovery in an election year.
OIL AND GAS
Congress is expected to approve by the end of the year government-proposed legislation that would increase state control over some of the world's biggest recent oil finds. The overhaul seeks to ensure proceeds from vast new fields flow to the state to help bankroll investments in areas like infrastructure, education and poverty-reduction programs.
The measures will likely reduce competition in the sector while boosting the role of state energy giant Petrobras (PETR4.SA)(PBR.N), offering fewer but still attractive opportunities for foreign investors.
Critics say the laws threaten the efficiency of Brazil's successful oil sector by stifling investment and increasing the dangers of political interference and corruption.
Brazil's Chamber of Deputies has approved the four legislative proposals but they could be delayed in a scheduled June vote in the Senate, where the government only has a narrow majority. Analysts give the entire legislative proposal about a 60 percent chance of approval this year.
What to watch:
-- A bill allowing a $60-100 billion capitalization of Petrobras, including $15-20 billion in cash; uncertainty over its approval in Congress has already pushed the company's share price lower.
-- Disagreement in the Senate over how to distribute oil revenue between the federal government and states could hold up parts of the legislative proposal, particularly after the beginning of the World Cup soccer tournament in mid-June and election campaigning by legislators in August.
POLICY STAGNATION
Nearly a dozen cabinet members resigned in April to campaign for public office in the Oct. 3 election. Most have been replaced by career civil servants who typically lack the political capital to push the government's agenda.
What to watch:
-- If Lula's successor fails to win a clear majority in Congress, reforms needed to improve Brazil's long-term competitiveness may face difficulty getting approval. These include reforms to an unwieldy tax system, costly pension benefits and rigid labor laws.
-- Strong pledges from Serra or Rousseff to cut spending and boost efficiency could help reduce inflation expectations.
CORRUPTION
Mud-slinging and corruption scandals tend to surface during Brazilian election campaigns. They could paralyze Congress and harm the camp of either of the leading candidates. Lula himself came close to facing impeachment proceedings in 2005 when his party was involved in an illegal campaign-financing scandal.
FOREIGN POLICY
If elected, Serra is likely to cool ties with some of Lula's left-wing allies in Latin America. That could affect energy investments in Bolivia and Venezuela, where Lula had prodded Petrobras to invest to foster regional integration.
Serra recently accused the Bolivian government of turning a blind eye to cross-border drug trafficking. Some analysts think Serra could also take a harder line in trade disputes with Argentina and the South American trade block Mercosur.
Rousseff, by contrast, has pledged to continue current foreign policy and could name the current deputy foreign minister, Antonio Patriota, as Brazil's top diplomat. (Additional reporting by Brian Ellsworth; Editing by Kieran Murray)
Fives steps to a better society
By Carlos Aquino (China Daily)| Updated: 2010-06-01 07:48
China's economy is growing, but so is its income divide. The Gini coefficient has increased alarmingly. The coefficient measures income inequality in a society, with 0 signifying perfectly equal distribution of wealth among households and 1 denoting that a single household controls all the wealth.
When China's reform and opening up began in 1979, its Gini coefficient was less than 0.35. Today, it is 0.47. If this trend continues, grievances against the system will grow and could threaten the country's stability, as well as economic development.
In a way, the widening income gap in China is the unwanted result of some of its development policies such as opening up the coastal areas first and leaving inland areas behind. This triggered a mass migration from rural to urban areas.
Migrant workers, who migrate to cities in search of better opportunities, are among the poorest people in the country. They cannot fully enjoy the benefits of living in cities, because most of them are not recognized as residents of the cities they work in. According to their hukou (household registration), they are considered rural residents (and cannot become urban dwellers), and thus have no access to housing and healthcare and cannot send their children to school in cities.
The Chinese government has been trying to modify the hukou system, but the process needs to be expedited because millions of more people will move from rural to urban areas.
China must do something to avoid the trap that Latin American countries fell into. The Gini coefficient in Latin American countries is around or even more than 0.50. So, what can China do to ensure that more people share the fruits of its economic growth?
First, the Chinese government should improve the living standards of rural residents, who comprise the largest number of poor in the country, and take steps to raise their income level, which is one-third or even lower than that in urban areas.
The government has to help farmers increase their production by introducing machinery and fertilizers, and shifting their production from low-value to high-value products (from basic grains like rice and wheat to vegetables and fruits, for instance). It has to improve the irrigation system and roads, too, so that farmers can carry their products easily and at lower costs to markets. Once, the income levels of rural residents increase, fewer people would move from villages to cities for jobs.
Second, improvement of the education system and making it accessible to all should not be confined to paper; it should be real. Poor farmers find it very difficult to send their children to school to even finish their basic education. As a result, the cycle of poverty, lack of proper education and low-paying jobs continues.
Third, the government has to increase its spending on social infrastructure, such as hospitals, schools and housing, especially in the urban areas. Housing prices have risen so drastically that it has become almost impossible for low-income earners to buy a house even in rural areas. The government should devise a scheme to build subsidized houses for the low-income and poor households. That leads to another government task: creating a social safety net for disadvantaged people and even granting direct subsidies to some of them.
An interesting example of this can be found in Brazil, a country known for its high income-disparity level (Gini coefficient 0.57) but which has taken great strides in the past decade toward narrowing the income gap. Success has come through a government scheme under which a certain amount of money is handed directly to the poorest people every month. But this money comes attached with certain conditions like parents have to ensure that their children complete their basic school years and undergo regular medical check-ups.
Fourth, the fight against corruption should be intensified. When people who have not benefited from the country's economic development see that corrupt officials escape without punishment, their frustration grows and pushes them toward violence. As people get disenchanted with the economic and social system, their resentment grows further. Hence, it is necessary to establish a system that will ensure that the guilty, regardless of their position, are punished.
And fifth, people must be allowed to express their disagreements with the economic and social situations. A system in which people can voice their feelings and vent their frustration should be built to prevent people from resorting to violence to let off steam. This can happen only when people's representatives are made more accountable to those who elect them. Exercising some supervisory power over their elected representatives will make people feel they have a direct stake in the system and know that they can hold the authorities accountable if they do not respond to their demands.
The author is professor of international economies at San Marcos National University in Lima, Peru.
From the chinese press
(China Daily)| Updated: 2010-06-01 07:48
PetroChina needs introspection
A Chinese company, PetroChina, has topped the list of Financial Times' (FT) 500 most valuable listed companies. But this crown is encrusted with some sordid diamonds, says an article on qq.com. Excerpts:
PetroChina and the other 20 Chinese companies on the list of 500 most valued firms are State-owned enterprises, that is, they belong to all Chinese people. The owners' economic status, however, has been lagging far behind their companies.
The most-valuable tag for a company does not necessarily mean it is also an industry leader. In reality, too, PetroChina is not. Its profit in 2008 was only one-third of Exxon Mobil, which is ranked second in the (FT) list, and its 3-billion-ton reserve is trivial compared to about 36-billion-ton reserve of Saudi Aramco. And yet it employs the largest number of people, 1.67 million, making it the poorest in efficiency.
Moreover, the ranking may further upset its shareholders on the Chinese mainland who bought its shares for about 48 yuan each only to see them nose-dive to less than 10 yuan. Most of the shareholders will need decades to recover their cost. In sharp contrast, the company's stock listing in US raised only $2.9 billion, but it has already distributed $11.9 billion in dividends.
Besides, PetroChina should thank the central government's fiscal subsidies for its top ranking instead of feeling proud of its business success. And it should reflect on whether it has been a company responsible to all Chinese people.
Medical treatment can be free
The government should provide free medical treatment to all Chinese, and it can afford to do so, says an article on southcn.com. Excerpts:
Medical bills have become a big burden for ordinary households, raising calls for the government to make healthcare free. Now an official in Guangdong has said the province can. Liao Xinbo, the deputy director of Guangdong's health department, said recently that the province needed only 40 billion yuan to provide free medical care to all its residents, which obviously is a small amount for the rich province.
Adopting the same logic, a Central China Television official said that if the central government were to earmark another 400 billion yuan a year to the health sector, it would solve the healthcare problem across the country. The amount should not be a burden for a country like China. The government should, therefore, start taking concrete steps to provide free medical treatment to all citizens, especially because the medical reform of the past few years has failed, resulting only in creating a dirty official-pharmacist-doctor-hospital nexus.
Compared with Brazil, another developing country, China has better infrastructure but a poorer social system. Airports, highways and buildings in Brazil cannot match those in China, but all Brazilians enjoy free medical treatment and education, the costs of which are two of the biggest burdens for most Chinese families.
Petrobras digs deep in committing to NZ oil exploration
4:00 AM Wednesday Jun 2, 2010
The hunt for oil in New Zealand has been boosted by one of the world's biggest oil companies committing to explore off East Cape, although experts are warning chances of early success in the frontier basin are low.
Brazil's state oil company Petrobras has been awarded a five-year permit for much of the Raukumara Basin and if it commits to an exploration well within that time it will have spent an estimated $156 million.
Energy and Resources Minister Gerry Brownlee said it was exciting that the company - among the top 10 oil and gas companies in the world - was coming to New Zealand.
"Petrobras is an international giant in this industry and a world leader in development of offshore drilling technology and production. Given Petrobras' expertise, and financial and technical pedigree, this is an exciting step into areas of New Zealand until now unexplored."
The exploration permit covers 12,333 sq km where seismic data and modelling work showed the basin had geology capable of trapping hydrocarbons in commercial quantities.
Water depths range from coastal to 3000m at its northern reaches.
BP's ruined well in the Gulf of Mexico is in water 1500m deep.
In scale of companies exploring around New Zealand, Petrobras ranks behind only Exxon Mobil, which soon must make a call on whether to drill in the Great South Basin.
The head of research at McDouall Stuart, John Kidd, said it was extremely positive to have such a big player committing to the country.
Like other oil majors, Petrobras was under pressure to build up reserves and to sustain its high production capacity, now at 2.4 million barrels a day.
"There's a lot of legwork that needs to be done first and they have a massive permit. Petrobras is not here for small oil, they're obviously here for the big prize."
Petroleum Exploration and Production Association chief executive John Pfahlert said Petrobras was a world leader in the development of advanced technology for deep water and ultra-deep water production.
He said the global strike rate from exploration wells is about one in 10, and in New Zealand the odds are longer - about one in 20.
"This is frontier country that nobody knows much about at all."
A petroleum reservoir expert, Michael Adams, said there were good signs of gas movement in the field but any estimate of reserves was speculative.
New Zealand Oil & Gas said it had not been interested in the basin, given it was unproven and did not fit its investment criteria.
Frontier basins manager at GNS Science, Chris Uruski, said although it was close to the active boundary between the Pacific and Australian tectonic plates, there was a surprising lack of faulting in the basin.
He said this was a positive for oil exploration as accumulations were more likely to have remained undisturbed.
BIG TARGET
* The Raukumara Basin covers approximately 25,000sq km - Petrobras will explore half that.
* GNS seismic mapping shows considerable potential for oil and gas.
* Satellite imaging has detected potential offshore seeps that indicate oil and gas.
BIG OIL
* Brazilian state-owned Petroleo Brasileiro - Petrobras - is worth about $300 billion.
* It operates in 27 countries.
* Between 2009 and 2013 it plans to invest $260 billion, much in "elephant" fields off Brazil.
Petrobras Targets Gas Find in New Zealand's Raukumara Basin
June 1 (Bloomberg) -- Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil's state-controlled oil producer, is seeking a large-scale gas discovery off New Zealand's North Island to support a potential liquefied natural gas project.
Petrobras, as the company is known, today won the right to explore 12,333 square kilometers (4,760 square miles) of ocean in the Raukumara Basin north of East Cape. The permit, its first in New Zealand, is part of the Rio de Janeiro-based explorer's strategy to broaden potential sources of LNG, said Marcelo Vertis, manager of international mergers and acquisitions.
"Petrobras has a strategic drive to look for gas in the Oceania region," he told journalists in Wellington. Development will be focused on LNG-scale finds, he said.
Deep sediments and oil seeps offshore and on the Raukumara Peninsula make the basin one of New Zealand's "most prospective" frontier areas, geologists from the state-owned GNS Science said when exploration bids were invited in late 2008. It contains numerous leads, including potential hydrocarbon- bearing sands more than 10 kilometers across, GNS said.
"It's great to have a world leader such as Petrobras to unlock the potential of the Raukumara Basin," Prime Minister John Key said at parliament house. "We must make the most of our offshore basins."
Petrobras, which operates in 28 countries, forecast in October that Brazil's gas demand would almost triple to 168 million cubic meters by 2020 from 58 million in 2008.
More Gas
The Raukumara permit will be held by Petrobras International Braspetro BV and runs from near the nation's east coast to 110 kilometers offshore and includes parts of two areas the government offered.
Petrobras will spend about $118 million on seismic studies and the drilling of one well during the next five years, unless it chooses to surrender the permit early, the government said.
The basin is more likely to hold gas than oil, Vertis said. He wouldn't comment on whether Petrobras is considering other exploration permits being offered in New Zealand.
In April, Petrobras paid $39 million for its first project in Australia and committed as much as $41 million to drill the first well in a potential gas development off Western Australia operated by MEO Australia Ltd.
That project and Raukumara reflect the company's Oceania strategy, Vertis said.
Negocian con Brasil con déficit comercial en alza
Miércoles 2 de junio de 2010
La balanza comercial de la Argentina con Brasil registró en mayo un déficit de u$s 332 millones, lo que implica un crecimiento de 74% respecto de igual periodo de 2009, según datos de la consultora Abeceb.com. El saldo acumulado para los primeros cinco meses del año 2010 señala un déficit de u$s 919 millones.
"Esto es así debido a una mayor velocidad en el crecimiento de las importaciones que de las ventas a Brasil durante el período en cuestión", advierte Abeceb.com.
Señala que las ventas crecieron en los primeros cinco meses un 37,2 por ciento mientras que las compras al Brasil aumentaron un 62 con relación a igual período de 2009.
Este fuerte incremento en las compras al país vecino obedece a las mayores adquisiciones de vehículos y autopartes, aparatos electrónicos, máquinas y equipamientos, plásticos y sus manufacturas, minerales ferrosos y productos siderúrgicos.
La ministra de Industria, Débora Giorgi, interpretó que se debe al "fuerte crecimiento de la actividad económica en nuestro país".
Giorgi y el ministro de Economía, Amado Boudou, se reunirán la semana próxima con sus pares de Brasil, Guido Mantega y Miguel Jorge, para trabajar en el desarrollo de herramientas comerciales que permitan equilibrar la balanza comercial entre ambos países.
La reunión surgió del encuentro que mantuvieron la semana pasada en Río de Janeiro los presidentes Cristina Fernández y Lula da Silva.
La ministra explicó que en la agenda de trabajo entre los ministros se encuentra la necesidad de profundizar el sistema de pago en moneda local, la integración de cadenas productivas, el financiamiento de las exportaciones con fondos del Bndes y eliminación de las barreras de acceso al mercado brasileño.
PEDIDO PARA QUE SE AUTORICEN VUELOS DE NUEVAS COMPAÑÍAS
Brasil reclama más lugar en el mercado aéreo local Las únicas autorizadas de ese país son GOL y TAM.
Afirman que la reticencia del Gobierno se debe a una protección de Aerolíneas Argentinas.
La Agencia de Aviación Civil de Brasil (Anac) denunció que la Argentina está poniendo piedras en el camino para la expansión del mercado a aerolíneas brasileñas, provocando altos precios de los pasajes.
Solange Vieira, presidenta de la entidad, estimó que un aumento de autorización de vuelos permitiría a otras firmas aéreas entrar en ese mercado cuando hoy las únicas autorizadas de Brasil son GOL y TAM.
Estas declaraciones tuvieron lugar en una reunión realizada en Río de Janeiro entre ejecutivos europeos y latinoamericanos de la aviación civil. A su vez, participaron directivos de aerolíneas y responsables de los entes reguladores del sector.
"Estamos en el límite máximo de vuelos con la Argentina y precisamos aumentarlos. Nuestras compañías ya están usando todos los vuelos disponibles y precisamos que el Gobierno argentino autorice el aumento", manifestó la responsable de la aviación civil brasileña.
La ejecutiva acusó al Gobierno nacional de ser reticente en atender la demanda brasileña. Una de las razones sería proteger a la estatal Aerolíneas Argentinas, que pasa por un momento delicado de reestructuración para tratar de hacer frente a su abultado déficit operativo.
Por su parte, el responsable de Relaciones Internacionales de la aviación civil brasileña, Bruno Silva Dalcolmo, agregó que un tercio de los vuelos internacionales en ese país cubren el mercado latinoamericano, lo que significa cuatro millones de pasajeros por año.
"El mercado más dinámico sería el argentino", si no existieran esas restricciones, manifestó.
"América latina es uno de los mercados de la aviación que está experimentando un crecimiento mayor en el mundo y tiene una importancia estratégica para la UE y su industria", señaló la Comisión Europea (CE) a través de un comunicado.
En la cumbre en Río de Janeiro se debatió sobre los principales objetivos del encuentro, como el avance en la eliminación de barreras al transporte aéreo en la UE y América latina, el refuerzo de la seguridad y la protección. También se abordó la gestión del tráfico aéreo y las nuevas tecnologías, además de los aspectos medioambientales del transporte aéreo.
Impulso
En el mismo encuentro celebrado en Río de Janeiro, la Unión Europea firmó un acuerdo de cooperación en aviación civil con la Comisión Latinoamericana de Aviación Civil (CLAC) y otros dos con Brasil para promover la cooperación en materia técnica y también de seguridad.
Las dos entidades suscribieron un memorando de entendimiento que servirá para "dar un impulso muy importante" a las relaciones entre ambos bloques, según explicó el director de Transporte aéreo de la Comisión Europea (CE), el español Daniel Calleja. Por su parte, el director de la CLAC, el chileno José Huepe, afirmó que "beneficiará mucho" a los 22 países que integran el ente.
La CLAC está formada por la Argentina, Aruba, Belice, Bolivia, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Jamaica, México, Nicaragua, Panamá, Paraguay, Perú, República Dominicana, Uruguay y Venezuela.
El organismo europeo también suscribió dos acuerdos técnicos con Brasil, uno de ellos, en materia de seguridad, que servirá para convalidar de forma recíproca las certificaciones concedidas a las aeronaves. El otro, denominado horizontal, supone que el país suramericano reconozca a la UE como un único ente jurídico, lo que permitirá negociaciones con todo el bloque en lugar de reuniones bilateral es con cada país.
En la ceremonia estuvieron presentes el vicepresidente de la CE, Siim Kallas, el titular brasileño de Defensa, Nelson Jobim, y el ministro español de Fomento, José Blanco, en calidad de representante de la Presidencia española de turno de la UE.
