UPDATE: Brazil's Economy Surges To Record Growth In 1Q
JUNE 8, 2010, 10:04 A.M. ET
RIO DE JANEIRO (Dow Jones)--Brazil posted record economic growth in the first quarter, but surging domestic demand will likely force central bankers to ramp up interest rates to cool Latin America's largest economy.
Brazil's gross domestic product expanded 9.0% in the first quarter compared with the first quarter a year earlier, the Brazilian Census Bureau, or IBGE, said Tuesday. That was the largest year-on-year growth recorded under the IBGE methodology implemented in 1995, and topped the median forecast of 7.6% made by 22 economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires.
The robust first-quarter growth will likely be seen as another signal that Brazil's economy is now overheating, joining soaring industrial production and rising consumer prices as growing concerns at the Brazilian Central Bank. The bank, already wary about inflationary pressures, started a monetary tightening cycle in April.
The bank's Copom rate-setting panel raised the benchmark Selic base interest rate by 75 basis points, the first increase in nearly two years. The Selic currently stands at 9.5%. The bank's Copom rate-setting panel will meet Wednesday, with economists and market analysts forecasting another 75-basis-point bump.
Surging domestic demand has pushed the local inflation rate above the government's official year-end target of 4.5%. Through mid-May, the rolling 12-month IPCA-15 inflation rate stood at 5.26%. Full-month May inflation figures will be released Wednesday, before the bank makes its interest-rate decision.
Output at Brazil's mines and factories surged in the first quarter, reflecting the tax cuts on car sales and big-ticket items such as refrigerators and washing machines that were implemented in the wake of last year's recession.
Brazil's powerhouse industrial sector surged 14.6% year-on-year in the first quarter, the IBGE said. The service sector also recorded year-on-year growth of 5.9%, while the country's massive agriculture industry registered growth of 5.1%.
With the stunning first-quarter performance, all facets of Brazil's economy have returned to pre-crisis levels, said IBGE researcher Rebecca Palis.
"The industrial segment returned [to pre-crisis levels] in the first quarter. In truth, it's actually slightly above pre-crisis levels," Palis said.
In market value, Brazil's GDP was 826.4 billion Brazilian reals ($441 billion) in the first quarter, up from BRL717.4 billion in first quarter of 2009.
Investments also jumped year-on-year in the first quarter to 18.0% of GDP, up from 16.3% of GDP in the first quarter of 2009.
Family consumption, meanwhile, increased 16% in the first quarter to BRL526.7 billion compared with BRL455.6 billion in the year-earlier period, the IBGE said. Government spending rose 6.2% year-on-year to BRL157.3 billion, up from BRL148.1 billion.
The IBGE also revised GDP figures from past quarters, showing that Brazil's emergence from the recession was stronger than previously thought.
Quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter, GDP was revised upward to growth of 2.3% from previously reported growth of 2.0%. Third-quarter GDP was revised upward to growth of 2.2% from the previously reported 1.7% gain. Second-quarter GDP was revised upward to growth of 1.5% versus the previously reported growth of 1.4%.
Meanwhile, the quarter-on-quarter decline in first-quarter GDP was stronger than previously reported, shrinking 1.5% from the fourth quarter compared with a 0.9% decline previously reported.
-By Jeff Fick, Dow Jones Newswires; 55-21-2586-6085; Jeff.Fick@dowjones.com
(Rogerio Jelmayer in Sao Paulo contributed to this report.)
Brazil's GDP Grew 9% in First Quarter
JUNE 8, 2010, 7:30 P.M. ET
RIO DE JANEIRO—Brazil reported record economic growth for the first quarter, but surging domestic demand is likely to force central bankers to ramp up interest rates to cool Latin America's largest economy.
Gross domestic product expanded 9% in the first quarter from the year-earlier period, the Brazilian Census Bureau, or IBGE, said Tuesday. That was the largest year-to-year growth recorded under the IBGE methodology implemented in 1995, and topped the median forecast of 7.6% by 22 economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires.
The robust first-quarter growth will likely be seen as another signal that Brazil's economy is overheating, joining soaring industrial production and rising consumer prices as subjects of concern at the Brazilian central bank. The bank, already wary of inflationary pressures, started monetary tightening in April, raising the benchmark Selic interest rate by 0.75 percentage point to 9.5%, the first increase in nearly two years. Economists and market analysts forecast another bump of three-quarters of a point when the panel meets on Wednesday.
Though the central bank is expected to continue tightening monetary policy throughout the year, government officials say a similar surge in growth isn't expected in subsequent quarters.
First-quarter figures, they say, still include consumer spending spurred in part by tax and lending incentives, introduced during the downturn to help stimulate the economy, that have since been removed.
Central-bank President Henrique Meirelles said the GDP data confirm that Brazil has fully recovered from the impact of a global economic crisis seen in 2008 and 2009. Brazil's economy contracted by 0.2% in 2009. Mr. Meirelles said the data prove the government took adequate measures to counter the effects of the slowdown.
Surging domestic demand has pushed the local inflation rate above the government's official year-end target of 4.5%. Through mid-May, the rolling 12-month IPCA-15 inflation rate stood at 5.26%. Full-month May inflation figures will be released Wednesday, before the bank makes its rate decision.
Output at Brazil's mines and factories surged in the first quarter, reflecting the tax cuts on car sales and big-ticket items such as refrigerators and washing machines that were implemented in the wake of last year's recession.
The industrial sector, Brazil's powerhouse, surged 14.6% year-to-year in the first quarter, the IBGE said. The service sector recorded growth of 5.9%, while the agriculture industry registered growth of 5.1%.
With the first-quarter performance, all facets of Brazil's economy have returned to precrisis levels, said IBGE researcher Rebecca Palis.
"The industrial segment returned [to precrisis levels] in the first quarter. In truth, it's actually slightly above precrisis levels," Ms. Palis said.
Brazil's GDP was 826.4 billion Brazilian reals (about $441 billion) in the first quarter, up from 717.4 billion reals in the first quarter of 2009.
Investments jumped to 18% of GDP, up from 16.3% of GDP in the first quarter of 2009.
Family consumption increased 16% to 526.7 billion reals from 455.6 billion reals, the IBGE said. Government spending rose 6.2% to 157.3 billion reals from 148.1 billion reals.
The IBGE also revised GDP figures from past quarters, showing that Brazil's emergence from the recession was stronger than previously thought.
Quarter-to-quarter in the fourth quarter, GDP was revised upward to growth of 2.3% from previously reported growth of 2.0%. Third-quarter GDP was revised upward to growth of 2.2% from the previously reported 1.7% gain. Second-quarter GDP was revised upward to growth of 1.5% versus the previously reported growth of 1.4%.
The quarter-to-quarter decline in first-quarter GDP was stronger than previously reported, shrinking 1.5% from the fourth quarter compared with a previously reported 0.9% decline.
—Rogerio Jelmayer in São Paulo and Gerald Jeffris in Brasília contributed to this article.
Lula's Candidate Surges in Brazil
JUNE 8, 2010 | By ROGERIO JELMAYER and JOHN LYONS
SÃO PAULO—Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's hand-picked successor has surged against her rival in a series of new polls, increasing the chances that the leftist Workers Party will remain in power after October elections.
Dilma Rousseff, Mr. da Silva's former chief of staff and the Workers' Party presidential candidate, rose five percentage points since a similar poll was taken in April. She is now tied at 37% with opposition politician Jose Serra, a former São Paulo governor, according to the Ibope research firm.
Mr. Serra's tally of likely voters fell by three percentage points in the poll released over the weekend. Other recent polls show similar results.
Trailing Ms. Rousseff and Mr. Serra in this week's Ibope poll was Green Party candidate Marina Silva, with 9% of the votes. Ibope interviewed 2,002 voting-age Brazilians nationwide between May 31 and June 3. The poll's margin of error is two percentage points.
While presidential campaigns in this soccer-crazed nation don't kick into gear until after the World Cup concludes in July, Ms. Rousseff appears to have notched some early momentum. One explanation behind her rising support may be an economic forecast of 6% growth this year, as well as expanded government aid for low-income families, some analysts say. Ms. Rousseff has an 11-percentage-point advantage over Mr. Serra among minimum-wage earners, the Ibope poll shows.
Another advantage Ms. Rousseff is exploiting is the popularity of President da Silva, who is ineligible to run after two terms. Mr. da Silva defeated Mr. Serra to clinch his first term in 2002. Ms. Rousseff's advisers are hoping the popular president will help defeat Mr. Serra again. Despite protests that such activities go against electoral rules, Mr. da Silva appears with Ms. Rousseff at public events and makes a case for her candidacy in a brief televised documentary.
A one-time Marxist guerrilla, Ms. Rousseff has worked to disarm critics who say she will steer the nation sharply to the left. During a recent speech to investors in New York, for example, Ms. Rousseff said she is committed to preserving a floating exchange rate, fighting inflation and maintaining the government's hands-off policy toward central-bank rate decisions.
Some Brazilian brokers say they doubt Ms. Rousseff's commitment to pro-market economics. Her radical background appears unlikely to spook international investors, in part because similar warnings eight years ago about Mr. da Silva turned out to be unfounded. In 2002, an investor selloff pushed Brazil's currency to record low levels in the weeks before the former labor leader took office. But Mr. da Silva maintained the economic policies of his predecessor, and Brazil's stock market soared.
"After the experience of 2002, the bar is pretty high to get international investors concerned about Brazilian politics," said Gray Newman, who follows Latin America for Morgan Stanle
Rate rise expected in Brazil as growth surges
By Jonathan Wheatley in São Paulo
Published: June 9 2010 03:00 | Last updated: June 9 2010 03:00
Brazil's economy was among the fastest growing in the world during the first quarter, according to figures released yesterday that add to fears the economy is overheating and to expectations that the central bank will raise rates again today.
The economy grew at a faster-than-expected rate of 9 per cent in the three months to March compared with a year earlier and by 2.7 per cent compared with the previous quarter, according to the IBGE, the national statistics office.
Part of the reason for the growth was an increase in the rate of investment to 18 per cent from 16.3 per cent a year earlier, spurred by gross fixed capital formation, which leapt by 26 per cent year on year, the fastest rate since the current IBGE series began in 1995.
"This confirms that the economy is very heated," said Rafael Bacciotti, economist at Tendências, a São Paulo consultancy. "The stand-out sectors were industry and services. Employment and wages are also growing strongly and we expect this to continue throughout the year."
The manufacturing industry grew 17.2 per cent year on year and the retail sector 15.2 per cent. Imports also set a record, surging by 39.5 per cent year on year.
The central bank's most recent weekly survey of economists showed expectations of overall growth this year rising to 6.6 per cent, the 12th consecutive week of climbing expectations.
But many believe the economy cannot grow at more than 4.5 or 5 per cent a year without provoking an increase in inflation.
Since last October, Brazil's consumer inflation rate has surged from an annual rate of 4.17 per cent to 5.26 per cent in April. However, the central bank's most recent survey showed a slight drop in forecasts for inflation during 2010, with the average falling to 5.64 per cent from 5.67 per cent a week earlier.
Most economists expect the central bank to announce a second consecutive three-quarter percentage point rise in its policy interest rate, the Selic, at the end of its monetary policy committee's regular two-day meeting tomorrow.
The committee meets every six weeks to decide whether to change the Selic rate in pursuit of the government's annual consumer price inflation target, currently 4.5 per cent a year.
If expectations are confirmed, the Selic will rise to 10.25 per cent a year, up from 8.75 per cent when the current tightening cycle began in April.
G4S buys into Brazil security market
09/06/2010 | Jay Bains
G4S, the world's biggest international security solutions group, has agreed to buy Instalarme, a Brazil-based electronic software and hardware integration company.
G4S will pay £17.1m in cash, and a further £6.4m subject to the achievement of an undisclosed earnings target for 2010.
The acquisition marks G4S's first move into Brazil, in spite of holding a portfolio boasting operations in more than 110 countries. Brazil is the fifth-largest security market in the world, which management at G4S have targeted for a number of years, according to JPMorgan Cazenove.
Analysts at JPMorgan said: "This deal is helpful as it will perhaps remind investors that G4S has a significant presence in emerging markets, which now account for circa 30 per cent of its earnings before interest and taxation."
Founded in 1975, and bought by private equity company Axxon Group in 2001, Instalarme is the leader in Brazil's banking sector, with 13,600 alarm connections and 2009 revenues of £15.9m.
Nick Buckles, G4S chief executive, said: "Instalarme represents an excellent opportunity to enter the substantial and growing Brazilian security market and immediately establish our pedigree in the country."
The extensive geographical coverage offered by Instalarme will "give us a strong platform from which to maximise the long-term potential of the Brazilian security market", he said.
Based in Araras, Instalarme employs 365 people in six branches, and is the only nationwide security systems company in Brazil.
Brazil growth gives rise to fears of overheating
09/06/2010 | Jonathan Wheatley
Brazil's economy was among the fastest growing in the world during the first quarter, according to figures released on Tuesday that add to fears the economy is overheating and to expectations that the central bank will raise rates again on Wednesday.
The economy grew at a faster-than-expected annual rate of 9 per cent in the three months to March and by 2.7 per cent compared with the previous quarter, according to the IBGE, the national statistics office.
Part of the reason for the growth was an increase in investment, with the rate of investment rising to 18 per cent from 16.3 per cent a year earlier, spurred by gross fixed capital formation, which leapt by 26 per cent year on year, the fastest rate since the IBGE's current series began in 1995.
"This confirms that the economy is very heated," said Rafael Bacciotti, economist at Tendências, a consultancy in São Paulo. "The stand-out sectors were industry and services. Employment and wages are also growing strongly and we expect this to continue throughout the year."
The manufacturing industry grew by 17.2 per cent year on year and the retail sector by 15.2 per cent. Imports also set a record, surging by 39.5 per cent year on year.
The central bank's most recent weekly survey of market economists showed expectations of overall growth this year rising to 6.6 per cent, the 12th consecutive week of climbing expectations.
But many believe the economy cannot grow at more than 4.5 or 5 per cent a year without provoking an increase in inflation.
The central bank has been forced to act by steadily rising inflation expectations over recent months. Since October, Brazil's consumer inflation rate has surged from an annual rate of 4.17 per cent to 5.26 per cent in April. However, the central bank's most recent survey showed a slight drop in forecasts for inflation during 2010, with the average falling to 5.64 per cent from 5.67 per cent a week earlier.
Most economists expect the central bank to announce a second consecutive three-quarter percentage point rise in its policy interest rate, the Selic, at the end of its monetary policy committee's regular two-day meeting tomorrow.
The committee meets every six weeks to decide whether to change the Selic rate in pursuit of the government's annual consumer price inflation target, currently 4.5 per cent a year.
If expectations are confirmed, the Selic will rise to 10.25 per cent a year, up from 8.75 per cent when the current tightening cycle began in April.
Brazilian equities, currency higher after GDP jump
June 8, 2010, 5:41 p.m. EDT
By Carla Mozee, MarketWatch
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- Brazil's stocks rose for the first time in three sessions, and the currency advanced Tuesday following a report that activity in Latin America's largest economy surged in the first quarter.
Brazil's Bovespa equity index closed up 1.1% to 61,855.52, aided by gains among agricultural, home building, consumer discretionary and steel stocks. Overall gainers were led by a 6.1% climb in MMX Mineracao and a 4.1% rise in sugar and ethanol producer Cosan /quotes/comstock/13*!czz/quotes/nls/czz (CZZ
8.76, +0.21, +2.46%) .
Heavyweights Petrobras /quotes/comstock/13*!pbr/quotes/nls/pbr (PBR
37.10, +1.00, +2.77%) and Vale /quotes/comstock/13*!vale/quotes/nls/vale (VALE
25.81, +0.40, +1.57%) rose 0.5% and 1.1%, respectively.
The currency /quotes/comstock/21o!x:susdbrl (CUR_USDBRL
1.8418, -0.0117, -0.6312%) strengthened to 1.8599 reals per U.S. dollar compared with Monday's level at 1.876 reals.
The assets were pushed higher after IBGE, the country's Census Bureau, said gross domestic product in the first quarter leapt 9% from the same period a year ago, easily outstripping the consensus estimate from Dow Jones Newswires for growth of 7.6%.
The 9% rate marked the highest rate of growth since 1995. Brazil's GDP in 2009 contracted 0.2%.
For the second quarter of this year, there are "already indications of a slowdown," said Finance Minister Guido Mantega in a statement. "The annual growth will be high but the rates along the period are decreasing."
The economy expanded 2.7% from the fourth quarter of 2009. Growth rates for the fourth quarter and the third quarter of 2009 were also upwardly revised.
The "odds that real GDP growth breaches the 7% level are high," wrote Guilherme Loureiro, an economist at Barclays Capital's emerging-markets research unit, in a report to clients.
On the supply side, the industrial sector in the first quarter expanded by a robust 14.6% from a year ago. The biggest "surprise" on the demand side came from investment, which grew 7.4% from the year-ago period, Loureiro wrote. Investment is now 18% of GDP, up from 16.3% a year ago.
Loureiro added that the strong economic recovery "should keep the [Brazilian central bank] in tightening mode."
The first-quarter GDP report arrived a day before Brazilian monetary policy makers are widely expected to lift the key Selic interest rate by 75 basis points. The rate currently stands at 9.5%. It was raised in April from a record low 8.75%.
Meanwhile, in Mexico City, shares of Grupo Mexico (MX:GMEXICOB
29.37, +1.35, +4.82%) climbed 4.2%, its first rise in four sessions, after the copper miner's rating at HSBC was upgraded to overweight from neutral.
A "second look" for South and North American copper miners is warranted after a significant fall in equity valuations that was likely stoked by debt and growth fears, wrote analyst Jordi Dominguez in a note.
The broker also upgraded Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold /quotes/comstock/13*!fcx/quotes/nls/fcx (FCX
62.64, +1.16, +1.89%) and Canada's Teck Resources Ltd. /quotes/comstock/11t!tck.b (CA:TCK.B
32.73, +1.59, +5.11%) /quotes/comstock/13*!tck/quotes/nls/tck (TCK
31.78, +0.51, +1.63%) .
Copper miners might benefit from strong U.S. dollar prices because it lowers costs in a majority of operations, wrote Dominguez. The miners are also "in a position to generate ample cash flows" with copper prices around $3 a pound.
Copper prices traded above $3 last week. July copper on Tuesday rose a penny, or 0.5%, to $2.77 a pound.
The IPC index tracking Mexico's equity market rose 1% to 31,059.83. Chile's IPSA rose 0.4% to 3,876.68, and Argentina's Merval gained 1.7% to 2,236.84.
Carla Mozee is a reporter for MarketWatch, based in Los Angeles.
Brazil GDP Surges Ahead of Rate Decision
06/08/10 - 11:34 AM EDT
Brazil economy remains on fire, cementing the need for continued rate hikes despite the growing crisis in Europe. GDP rose 9% year-over-year in the first quarter vs. 4.3% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, and well above the 7.5%-8.5% that officials were hinting at. We've noted before that trend growth for Brazil is thought to be around 4%-4.5% (vs. market expectations of 6.6% in 2010), and so it's not surprising that price pressures have been rising.
Brazil central bank announces its policy decision tomorrow (June 9), and the median market forecast is for a 75 bp hike to 10.25%. The weekly central bank survey still shows that the market expects a year-end rate of 11.75%, same as last week. That implies 225 bp of further tightening in 2010.
Mid-May IPCA inflation was 5.3% year-over-year, the highest since mid-May 2009 and above the 4.5% midpoint of the bank's 2.5%-6.5% target range. While we have been theorizing that the European crisis will push back EM tightening this year, Brazil is one of the few exceptions as its exports/GDP ratio near 10% makes it somewhat less vulnerable to headwinds from Europe. To its credit, the government has tightened fiscal policy in an election year, but may need to do more to dampen growth.
BRL has held up OK during the intensification of the European crisis, down 4.6% so far in the second quarter compared to PLN (worst EM performer, down 17.5% in the second quarter) and putting it in the middle of the EM pack. We believe USD/BRL will remain largely in the 1.75-1.9 range near term, with the risk tilted toward the upside. We remain concerned about developments in Europe that will ultimately determine overall risk appetite and affect EM currencies, and even rates in excess of 10% will be no protection for BRL against these swings in sentiment.
While Brazil fundamentals remain solid, we think that appreciation (not only for BRL but for EM as a whole) will be very limited in the coming months. With an election this fall in Brazil, one should not underestimate the potential for increased volatility in Brazil markets. While we have downplayed political risk for Brazil, it is yet another risk factor that could get magnified in these overall nervous markets.
Brazil sees record 9 pct economic growth in 1Q
By BRADLEY BROOKS, Associated Press Writer Bradley Brooks, Associated Press Writer – Tue Jun 8, 1:54 pm ET
RIO DE JANEIRO – Brazil's economy grew by a record 9 percent in the first quarter on strong domestic demand, the government reported Tuesday, a surprisingly good result that prompted a revision of the 2010 growth forecast to 6.5 percent.
"It was more than I'd hoped for," Economy Minister Guido Mantega said. "It shows that the Brazilian economy had one of the best recoveries in the world. Only China has had growth of this magnitude." Mantega said Latin America's largest economy "should see growth of 6 to 6.5 percent" this year, up from earlier predictions of 4.5 percent to 5.5 percent.
However analysts warned that the economy is beginning to overheat — which could spur the central bank to hike a key interest rate to avoid a spike in inflation. "All growth above 5 percent is inflationary," Carlos Safatle, president of the Sao Paulo regional economic council, told the business newspaper Valor Economico. "As the expectation for this year is around 6.5 percent, the central bank is already acting."
The central bank committee that sets the interest rate meets Wednesday to consider whether to change the benchmark Selic rate, currently 9.5 percent. In April, the bank made its first rate hike in almost two years, increasing it by 0.75 percentage points. A similar increase is expected this week.
The latest report on Brazil's gross domestic product from the IBGE government statistics agency said the first-quarter expansion was the strongest recorded since it began using its present methodology in 1995. The IGBE report indicated that annual growth ending in March was 2.4 percent. That figure includes two quarters of negative growth last year. Brazil was among the last nations to be hit by the global financial crisis, and one of the first to emerge from it.
Mantega said deft handling of fiscal and monetary policies, coupled with resilient demand from a growing middle class, is what guided the nation through the meltdown, which began in 2008 and continues to threaten nations such as Greece, Spain and Portugal. The IGBE said industrial output jumped 14.6 percent in the first quarter compared with the same period last year. Services expanded by 5.9 percent, and the powerful agricultural sector grew 5.1 percent.
The report said those numbers point toward strong internal demand.
Brazil's government has also taken steps to stimulate the economy — keeping the interest rate at an all-time low until April, lowering bank reserve requirements, increasing government spending and sparking consumer spending by slashing taxes on new car purchases, among other incentives.
Mantega said the blistering pace is unlikely to be maintained since the first-quarter figures are compared to the first quarter of last year, when the nation was in the throes of the global crisis and the economy contracted 2.1 percent.
Brazil sees economy surge by 9%
09/06/2010
Brazil's economy grew at its fastest rate in at least 14 years in the first three months of 2010, official figures have shown.
Its gross domestic product (GDP) surged by 9% compared with the same period a year earlier.
However, higher interest rates and the withdrawal of some tax breaks are expected to cool growth eventually.
Brazil's economy is the largest in Latin America and the eighth-biggest in the world.
Agriculture and industry were among the growth sectors, the government said.
'Confirmation'
Much of Brazil's economy is driven by domestic consumer demand rather than exports - which analysts say means it is relatively insulated from Europe's debt crisis and the projected slow recovery of the US.
"These figures are confirmation of what the market was talking about, a strong first quarter with very strong domestic demand despite the weak external sector," said Pedro Tuesta, senior Latin America economist at research firm 4Cast Inc.
The government said the annual growth was the swiftest pace seen since at least 1996.
Brazil's economy grew by 2.7% on the previous three months - again beating analysts' expectations.
EL FUERTE AUMENTO DE LA PRODUCCIÓN DE SOJA IMPULSÓ AL SECTOR AGROPECUARIO
Se acelera el crecimiento económico de Brasil: 9% en el primer trimestre
Es en comparación con el mismo período de 2009. La demanda interna alentó la expansión industrial que subió 14,6%. Para fin de año se prevé un alza de 7% del PBI
EFE Brasilia () | Miércoles 9 de junio de 2010
El fenómeno de la economía brasileña parece imparable: creció un 9% en el primer trimestre del año en comparación al mismo período de 2009, según datos divulgados ayer por el gobierno y que confirman las proyecciones de los analistas según las cuales el líder sudamericano se expande a un ritmo chino.
Además de haber alcanzado su mayor desarrollo económico en un primer trimestre en los últimos 16 años, el Producto Bruto Interno (PBI) del primer trimestre creció un 2,7% frente al último trimestre del año pasado.
Ese desarrollo trimestral permite proyectar un aumento anualizado del 10% para la potencia latinoamericana. Sin embargo, las previsiones de los economistas estiman que el ritmo comience a desacelerar en los próximos meses y que el país termine este año con un crecimiento del 6,6%.
Paralelamente, el sorprendente desarrollo confirman la rápida recuperación de la economía brasileña tras la contracción del 0,2% que el país sufrió en 2009 como consecuencia de la crisis mundial.
Industria fuerte
Los analistas explican que el fuerte impulso que tomó la economía brasileña en este primer trimestre se debió principalmente por la industria, cuya producción aumentó un 14,6% frente a la del mismo período del año pasado, según los datos divulgados por el estatal Instituto Brasileño de Geografía y Estadísticas (IBGE).
En otro aspecto, la construcción civil creció un 14,9% beneficiada por el aumento del crédito para la vivienda, mientras que la extracción mineral aumentó un 13,2% principalmente por el aumento del 52% de la producción de hierro, del que Brasil es el mayor exportador mundial.
El sector agropecuario también tuvo un buen desempeño impulsado por el fuerte aumento de la producción de soja (19%).
Para los analistas, otro de los motivos de esta expansión económica es por el aumento del consumo de las familias, que creció un 9,3% frente al primer trimestre del año pasado, ya que los gastos de la administración pública sólo subieron el 2%. En este contexto, según el IBGE, el PBI brasileño en el primer trimestre sumó 826.400 millones de reales ( u$s 446.703 millones). El ente también informó que la llamada Formación Bruta de Capital Fijo creció un 26% en el primer trimestre frente a los tres primeros meses de 2009.
Finalmente, el crecimiento de la construcción civil y el de las importaciones de bienes y servicios, que llegó a un 39,5%, fueron las mayores expansiones para estos importantes sectores desde que sus índices comenzaron a ser medidos en 1995.
El real brasileño se levantó tras la difusión de un auspicioso dato del PBI
Miércoles 9 de junio de 2010
El "exuberante" crecimiento que muestra la actividad en Brasil alcanzó para derramar optimismo ayer sobre todos los activos del país. En ese contexto, el real brasileño se apreció con fuerza y alcanzó a recuperar todo lo perdido durante el lunes. Fue luego de que el gobierno de Brasil anunciara el mayor avance de la economía en más de una década: el Producto Bruto Interno (PBI)creció 9% durante el primer trimestre del año. El dato se impuso en el ánimo, en una jornada que arrojó pocos indicadores externos. La moneda brasileña se fortaleció así 0,96% y llegó a cotizar a 1,860 unidades por dólar para la venta, tras haber retrocedido un 1,02% en la rueda previa. Se espera que hoy el Banco Central vuelva a subir la tasa de referencia, lo que debería darle nuevo impulso a la moneda. La bolsa de San Pablo acompañó con fuerza y la mayoría de sus papeles cotizantes treparon significativamente. El Bovespa ganó ayer 1,1%, a 61.855,52 puntos, con lo que absorbió la pérdida del 0,8% registrada el lunes.
ABRIRÁ EL PRIMER LOCAL A FIN DE AÑO BAJO LA MARCA ATACADAO
Carrefour 'importa' formato brasileño para competir en el negocio mayorista
Desembarca en un mercado liderado por Makro, abriendo en la localidad bonaerense de Laferrere una filial de la mayor cadena de distribución mayorista del país vecino
Además de profundizar su incursión en el negocio de las tiendas de proximidad de la mano de su formato Express y Mini, y de encarar un plan de nuevas aperturas de sus hipermercados, Carrefour también desembarcará este año en el segmento mayorista.
Lo hará de la mano de un formato que importará de Brasil. Allí, el grupo francés controla una de las mayores cadenas mayoristas que opera bajo el nombre de Atacadao.
Carrefour adquirió esta compañía en 2007 por casi u$s 1.000 millones en el marco de una transacción que le permitió alcanzar una posición de liderazgo en el mercado brasileño de distribución de alimentos.
Atacadao, que precisamente significa mayorista en portugués, también será el nombre que llevará el nuevo híper mayorista argentino. El objetivo que persigue la filial local de la cadena francesa es llegar a clientes a los que actualmente no abastece a través de sus otros formatos como comerciantes pequeños y medianos que hoy hacen sus compras en otros canales mayoristas.
El primer local Atacadao en el país será inaugurado a fin de año en la localidad bonaerense de Laferrere. Será un establecimiento de 7.000 metros cuadrados de salón y funcionará al estilo Makro, cadena que en el país lidera el negocio mayorista.
Al mismo estilo que esta marca, Atacadao venderá tanto a pequeños y medianos comerciantes como a consumidores particulares, a precios más bajos que los de los hipermercados. El local contaría además con una zona de carga especialmente diseñada para vehículos particulares.
Se trata de la primera vez que Carrefour copia un modelo de un país de la región para replicarlo en otros lugares del mundo. De hecho, este mes ya abrió un local Atacadao en Colombia y, además de la Argentina, la cadena también llevará el formato a España y China.
El local de Laferrere insumirá una inversión de $ 50 millones y ofrecerá alrededor de 6.000 a 7.000 ítems. Si el modelo es íntegramente copiado al estilo brasileño, debería abrir sus puertas todos los días desde las 5 de la mañana.
En Brasil, Atacadao es hoy la mayor cadena de hipermercados de descuento, con 62 tiendas. Anualmente, registra ingresos cercanos a los u$s 1.700 millones y ofrece 10.000 ítems entre alimentos en general, carnes frías y lácteos, hortalizas, legumbres y frutas, bebidas, conservas y enlatados, dulces y bizcochos, higiene personal, limpieza, bazar, aparatos electrónicos, electrodomésticos, tienda de mascotas, y automotriz, entre otros rubros.
