Iran's nuclear programme

A step closer to sanctions
America announces a deal with Russia and China, but the world is divided on how to deal with Iran

May 18th 2010 | From The Economist online

TWO leaders from two big regional powers, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil and Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, took a risk in travelling to Iran and negotiating over the country's contentious nuclear programme. Surpassing low expectations, the two announced triumph on May 17th, clutching hands with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran's president. But just a day later came the American response: the secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, announced that the five veto-wielding members of the UN Security Council and Germany had agreed on a draft resolution extending sanctions on Iran, to be presented soon to the full council.

Under the Brazilian-Turkish deal, Iran would send 1,200 kg of its stockpile of low-enriched uranium to Turkey. In exchange it wants 120 kg of uranium enriched to a higher level (around 20%) for a research reactor which produces isotopes that can be used in medicine, within a year. In outline the deal is superficially similar to the one struck last October between France, Russia, Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), with American support. Under that plan, 1,200kg of low-enriched uranium (LEU) would have been sent to Russia for enrichment to 20%. The material would then have been sent on to France to be turned into fuel rods to be used in Iran's medical reactor (which creates isotopes for use in treating cancer).

Iran backed out of that deal, demanding higher-enriched uranium immediately, and insisting any swap take place in Iran and that it should be limited to smaller quantities of the stuff. Now, Messrs Lula and Erdogan seem to have convinced Iran to give some ground on where and how quickly the enrichment would be done. With Iran's apparent concessions in hand, the two mediating presidents now say there is no need for further sanctions from the UN Security Council (where both countries currently sit among the 15 members).

The permanent five Security Council members—America, Britain, France, Russia and China—obviously disagree, as Mrs Clinton lost no time in pointing out. The October fuel deal, however successfully revived by Brazil and Turkey, was meant, at the time, as a way of creating some breathing space to get Iran to do a broader deal that might eventually end the stand-off over its suspect nuclear work. But since Iran pulled out of the October deal it has gone on adding to its stock of LEU. As a result it would still have some 1,100 kg of the stuff after sending the other 1,200 kg to Turkey. Worse, it says it will continue enriching its own stock to 20%. Getting uranium from 20% enriched to the 90% or so needed for a bomb is an easier task than getting to 3.5% in the first place. Whatever trust Iran might have bought by doing the deal in October, it has bought a lot less this week.

Word at the UN has it that the sanctions package includes a full arms embargo, financial and shipping sanctions and further restrictions on Iran's Revolutionary Guard. The permanent five will remind Iran that three sanctions resolutions have required that it suspend enrichment, not just send some of its reactor fuel abroad.

But the diplomatic picture has been clouded by the Brazilian-Turkish mission. A Security Council resolution requires 9 votes of 15 (with no veto from the permanent five). Lebanon is already publicly sceptical, and Gabon has called for a negotiated solution. Mexico may feel caught between its important American relationship and its regional partner and rival, Brazil. If the permanent five have to scrape for the nine votes needed, the signal they send is weakened. In any case, many Iran-watchers think that China has already enfeebled the resolution by opposing anything contrary to its own commercial interests, that UN action alone can do little to influence Iran.

Separately, America's Congress is considering tougher sanctions that would clamp down on exports of refined petroleum products to Iran. But those who pin their hopes on Iran's anti-regime "green movement" worry that such economy-wide pain will make ordinary Iranians rally round the flag. Barack Obama has been accused of stalling those bills in the name of buying time for his international diplomacy aimed at isolating Iran. But it now seems that Iran may have successfully repeated its old trick of confusing and dividing countries preparing to tighten the net around it.

Iran's nuclear programme

The Tehran tango
The Turkish-Brazilian deal leaves Iran enriching uranium and is unlikely to satisfy the West

May 17th 2010 | From The Economist online

TWO leaders from two big regional powers, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil and Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, took a risk in travelling to Iran and negotiating over the country's contentious nuclear programme. Many said they would fail. Instead the two announced triumph on Monday 17th May, clutching hands with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran's president. But will Western leaders, pressing for new sanctions on Iran, see it as enough?

Under the new deal, Iran says it would send 1,200 kg of its stockpile of low-enriched uranium to Turkey. In exchange it wants 120 kg of uranium enriched to a higher level (around 20%) for a research reactor which produces isotopes that can be used in medicine (typically for the treatment of cancer), within a year.

If this sounds familiar, it is because the outlines of the deal are close to those struck last October between France, Russia, Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), with American support. Under that plan, 1,200kg of uranium would have been sent to Russia for enrichment to 20%. The material would then have been sent on to France to be turned into fuel rods.

Iran backed out of this deal, demanding higher-enriched uranium immediately, and insisting the swap take place in Iran. Details of the new deal have yet to be hammered out, but Messrs Lula and Erdogan seem to have convinced Iran to give some ground on where and how quickly the enrichment would be done. With Iran's apparent concessions in hand, the two mediating presidents now say there is no need for further sanctions from the UN Security Council (where both countries currently sit among the 15 members).

Leaders in other Western capitals are unlikely to see things that way. Until Turkey and Brazil got involved, Iran's negotiations had primarily been with the five permanent members of the Security Council—America, Britain, France, Russia and China—as well as Germany and the IAEA. The Turkish-Brazilian deal must now go to them for their approval.

France's foreign ministry and the European Commission both faintly praised the deal, while noting that it did nothing to solve the underlying impasse between an Iran that has carried on enriching and the countries that want it to desist. The British government said it would continue to work towards a resolution on sanctions in the Security Council.

The thinking behind the failed October deal was to take most of Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium out of play, in order to create time for negotiations. But because Iran has carried on enriching uranium since it turned down the October deal, it has quite a lot more of the low-enriched stuff sitting around than it would send to Turkey under the new deal (some 1,100 kg according to Jacqueline Shire of the Institute for Science and International Security). Getting uranium from 20% enriched to the 90% or so needed for a bomb takes a lot less effort than getting to the original 3.5% in the first place. So even if the new deal with Brazil and Turkey sticks it is unlikely to buy Iran much time to avoid a vote on sanctions.

Word at the UN had it that a sanctions deal (a full arms embargo, financial and shipping sanctions and restrictions on the Revolutionary Guard) was near. Russia has recently joined America in sending a stronger signal that Iran must stop enrichment, as the UN Security Council has demanded, and answer the IAEA's increasingly pointed questions about activities that appear to indicate an interest in weapons development. This would have left only China in a position to veto sanctions, and China has traditionally not liked to veto alone.

The case against sanctions, in other words, seemed to be crumbling. But Turkey and Brazil might just succeed in swinging other temporary members of the Security Council against sanctions. Lebanon is already publicly sceptical, and Gabon has called for a negotiated solution. Mexico may feel caught between its important American relationship and its regional partner and rival, Brazil. Even if none of the veto-wielders bolts, the Western coalition could have to scrape for the nine votes needed, sending a weak signal.

Unless details of the new deal (a letter is to be sent to the IAEA this week) contain pleasant surprises, it appears Iran may have successfully repeated its old trick of widening divisions between the countries preparing to tighten the sanctions net around it. Israel has already said that Brazil, inexperienced in Middle East diplomacy, may have been manipulated, and more scepticism is certain in the days to come. Messrs Erdogan and Lula may not have long to savour their achievements.

Obama Doubles Down in Iran Nuclear Showdown

19/05/2010 | By Massimo Calabresi / Washington

Iran has once again done what it does best: use delaying tactics to its diplomatic advantage. By landing a deal with Brazil and Turkey to export half its enriched-uranium stockpile in exchange for reactor fuel just days before the U.S. unveiled a new raft of sanctions, Iran has potentially gotten more than it would have had it accepted a similar deal offered by the U.S. and the International Atomic Energy Agency last October. Under the new deal, Iran will get the reactor fuel it needs to produce medical isotopes, and because it continued its enrichment activities in the interim, it will hold on to a substantially larger stockpile of enriched uranium after making the exchange.

But there is more at stake than just the size and quality of Iran's nuclear stockpile. Tehran is testing one of the fundamental premises of President Obama's foreign policy: that diplomatic engagement can build durable international coalitions in the face of rogue states. The test has real downsides for Obama if his premise fails. By the same token, passing the test would be a significant victory for the President. (See TIME's video "Ahmadinejad Says Obama Should Back Off.")

From the start, Obama said his outreach to foreign adversaries like Iran, and his embrace of international institutions, would strengthen Washington's hand in mustering pressure on countries that defy the international community. On the presidential campaign trail in 2008, Obama argued that engaging with Iran would make other countries more likely to side with the U.S. if Tehran continued to renege on its international obligations. He saw a similar value in working via the international institutions scorned by his predecessor, President George W. Bush. (See pictures of the disputed 2009 Iranian presidential election.)

Iran's continued defiance over the past 12 months has prompted Obama's political opponents to brand his approach naive, particularly after the President's self-imposed deadline for compliance from Tehran passed at the end of 2009 and China boycotted talks on sanctions in January and February (after the U.S. announced a new round of arms sales to Taiwan and Obama met with the Dalai Lama). But in the past few weeks, senior Administration officials say, Obama has made a breakthrough with China, securing Beijing's support for new U.N. Security Council sanctions against Iran over its refusal to heed U.N. demands to suspend uranium enrichment. Administration officials attribute the breakthrough to Obama's support for international regimes like the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, growing impatience in China and Russia with Iran's refusal to accept Obama's diplomatic outreach and Obama's one-on-one attention to China's concerns.

The new sanctions would introduce additional penalties against Iranian individuals and organizations involved in the illegal spread of nuclear materials and technology. And although these measures would fall short of the "crippling" sanctions the U.S. had threatened for continued Iranian defiance, U.S. officials believe the U.N. resolution would contain language that would allow Washington and some of its allies to impose further, tougher measures of their own. There are plenty who are skeptical about whether such sanctions will change Iranian behavior on the nuclear front, but it is clear that Iran was sufficiently eager to avoid the new measures that it accepted a deal, via Turkey and Brazil, that it had rejected last October.

Unmoved by the latest Iranian offer, the Administration is pressing ahead with the new sanctions resolution, and it says that Russia and China remain onboard. If, despite Tehran's gambit, Obama can still get all five permanent members of the Security Council (the U.S., Russia, China, Britain and France) and four of the rotating members to vote for new sanctions, that would not only be a win for his effort to tighten the screws on Iran but also a validation of his strategy of outreach to rivals and the international community. If the tactical shift by Iran fails to divide the consensus Washington has achieved throughout months of laborious diplomacy, it will prove that Obama can leverage engagement not just to build an international coalition but to build a resilient one.

The downside, of course, is stark. If any of the permanent five breaks ranks — if China even abstains rather than use its veto — or if the U.S. can't rustle up the nine votes needed to pass the resolution, it will suggest that Obama's months of outreach failed to net any significant international advantage in dealing with rogue actors. Iran would then gain the fuel for its reactor while hanging on to a stockpile of enriched uranium as well as strike a body blow on Obama's attempt to rebuild the international security cooperation that collapsed over the Iraq war.

Major Powers Have Deal on Sanctions for Iran

By DAVID E. SANGER and MARK LANDLER | Published: May 18, 2010

WASHINGTON — The Obama administration announced an agreement on Tuesday with other major powers, including Russia and China, to impose a fourth set of sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program, setting the stage for an intense tug of war with Tehran as it tries to avoid passage of the penalties by the full United Nations Security Council.

The announcement came just a day after Iranian leaders announced their own tentative deal, with Turkey and Brazil, to turn over about half of Iran's stockpile of nuclear fuel for a year, part of a frantic effort to blunt the American-led campaign for harsher sanctions.

"This announcement is as convincing an answer to the efforts undertaken in Tehran over the last few days as any we could provide," Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, describing the agreement as a "strong draft."

But even if the Security Council adopts the new sanctions, it is unclear whether the provisions — including a mandate to inspect Iranian ships suspected of entering international ports with nuclear-related technology or weapons — would inflict enough pain to force Iran to halt its uranium enrichment and cooperate with international inspectors. None of the previous three sets of sanctions passed by the Council during the Bush administration succeeded in their goal: forcing Iran to end its enrichment of uranium and to answer the many questions posed by international inspectors related to their suspicions about Iranian research into nuclear weapons.

Some of the toughest proposals were barely even discussed as the United States sought support from China, which is a major trading partner with Iran and has been the most resistant to new sanctions. Along with the Russians, the Chinese blocked any measure that would stop the flow of oil from Iranian ports or gasoline into the country. President Obama himself had raised the possibility of such sanctions during the 2008 campaign.

In the end, a deal was reached by the five permanent, veto-wielding members of the Council — the United States, Britain, France, Russia and China — plus Germany. They agreed on sanctions against Iranian financial institutions, including those that supported the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Members of the Guard Corps are responsible for overseeing the military aspects of the nuclear program and have assumed commanding roles in the broader Iranian economy.

The newest element of the sanctions would require countries to inspect ships or planes headed into or out of Iran if there were suspicions that banned materials were aboard. But as in the case of sanctions against North Korea, there is no authorization to board ships forcibly at sea, a step officials from many countries warned could touch off a larger confrontation.

Another new element bars all countries from permitting Iran to invest in nuclear enrichment plants, uranium mines and other nuclear-related technology. That appeared to be aimed at halting rumored Iranian ventures with Venezuela and Zimbabwe, or with companies in Europe.

The agreement came months later than the administration had hoped, and after a hectic week of diplomacy, capped by a last-minute phone call by Mrs. Clinton to Russia's foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, to confirm whether Moscow was on board, a senior American official said.

The United States believed that it was close to a deal last week, said the official, who did not want to be identified by name while discussing internal negotiations. But it could not resolve the final points with Russia over conventional, nonnuclear arms sales to Iran, and with China over its energy investments there.

The American ambassador to the United Nations, Susan E. Rice, said, "We will seek a vote as soon as the conditions are right and Council members have had an opportunity to consider it." Several officials said that moment would not come until next month, at the earliest.

Even if the proposed sanctions survive without being watered down, administration officials concede that they are unlikely to alter Iran's behavior, unless they are combined with considerable additional pressure.

The previous three sets of sanctions were simply ignored by many of Iran's trading partners. "The devil has been in the implementation," Patrick Clawson, the deputy director for research at the Washington Institute for Near East Studies.

The draft resolution faces resistance from Brazil and Turkey, which have seats on the Council and brokered the deal to transfer some of Iran's nuclear fuel out of the country. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey sharply criticized the continued push for sanctions by the United States. Mr. Erdogan worked with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil to reach the accord with Iran on Monday.

Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti, Brazil's ambassador to the United Nations, said, "Brazil is not engaging in any discussion about this draft resolution, because we are sure there is a new situation."

Turkey and Brazil have considerable business dealings with Iran, and are seen as eager to flex their muscles on the international stage. The ambassadors from the five permanent members of the Council, speaking with reporters at the United Nations, said that they respected the compromise that the countries had reached with Iran but that it did not address their core concern: Iran's continuing efforts to enrich uranium.

Vitaly I. Churkin, the Russian ambassador, said that the draft resolution contained "language we can live with, because it is focused adequately on nonproliferation matters."

Li Baodong, the Chinese envoy, said the resolution should signal to Iran that it needs to cooperate with the United Nations' atomic energy agency. "The purpose of sanctions is to bring the Iranian side to the negotiating table," he said, while praising the initiative taken by Brazil and Turkey.

Iran's announcement that it would ship what is believed to be roughly half of its nuclear fuel to Turkey for further enrichment appeared to be a bid to undercut the American efforts to bring along China and Russia. The offer resembled an accord made with the West last October that fell apart when Iran backtracked.

Iran has said its nuclear program is intended to produce civilian energy, but American and European officials have pointed to work that seems unrelated to simply producing power.

A senior administration official said that one of the most critical sections of the proposed sanctions was modeled on a resolution passed last year against North Korea, after its second nuclear test. That resolution authorized all nations to search cargo ships heading into or out of the country if there were suspicions that weapons or nuclear technology were aboard.

In North Korea's case, there have already been some modest successes. In one case, North Korea sent one of its ships back to port, rather than risk having it boarded and inspected.

Neil MacFarquhar contributed reporting from the United Nations, Peter Baker from Washington, and Raphael Minder from Madrid.

Silva's Brazil Star Shines Brighter With Iran Deal

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS | Published: May 18, 2010

SAO PAULO (AP) -- Brazil's president says Iran's agreement to a nuclear fuel deal he helped craft proves his nation has finally become a new global power broker.

Yet most of the credit headed Brazil's way may well go to Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva himself. The leader famously popular at home and abroad is soon leaving office to a more-obscure successor, even as he looks for his own new challenges.

''Clearly this is a huge political home run for Lula,'' said Christopher Garman, who heads Latin American research for the Eurasia Group consulting firm in Washington. ''He has rounded up the end of his term in a big way: He used his personal political capital and is playing a role in the Middle East.''

Silva is a long-standing icon of Latin America's Marxist-influenced left who enchanted investors by embracing market-friendly policies as president. With a jovial, plain-talking style forged as a labor leader, he has bonded with George W. Bush and with Hugo Chavez. He has traded jokes with Barack Obama and bear hugs with Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Silva portrayed the deal as a victory for his own nation and for another emerging power, Turkey, which has opposed U.S. and European efforts to impose sanctions on Iran for its nuclear fuel enrichment. Analysts said their stand may have made it easier for Iran to accept a compromise that might have looked like a capitulation if it was brokered by a less friendly country.

Silva has long urged a greater global role for developing nations -- and a bigger place in a United Nations now dominated by a handful of countries that are permanent members of the Security Council.

''Brazil believed that it was possible to reach a deal,'' Silva said Monday on his weekly radio program, recorded in Tehran after the deal was signed. ''I think that diplomacy came out victorious today. I think it was a result that shows we can build peace through dialogue.''

It's not clear if the deal will satisfy the international community, though it is similar to a U.N.-drafted plan, backed by Washington and its allies, meant to deprive Iran of enough stocks of enriched uranium to produce a nuclear weapon.

The Turkish-Brazilian negotiating effort bucked the wishes of a skeptical White House. While Washington said the outcome could be a ''positive step,'' Iran then said it would keep enriching uranium on its own, something that could help it develop a nuclear weapon.

Garman said the deal leaves no doubt Brazil is boosting its geopolitical power, and he argued the U.S. will have a hard time rejecting it completely and securing another round of U.N. sanctions against Iran.

Just getting an agreement out of Iran was a huge international coup for Brazil's first working class president, who has repeatedly argued that his country has earned the right to a permanent, prominent role in international affairs.

During the seven years of Silva's presidency, Latin America's largest economy has seen solid growth, its international reserves have ballooned from $38 billion to $240 billion, inflation has been tamed and some 20 million people have been lifted from poverty.

Brazil also won the contests to host both soccer's World Cup in 2014 and the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro.

But Brazil's future influence could dim with the departure of Silva's star power. The leading candidates to succeed him are barely known outside Brazil and don't have his charisma. Whoever wins is likely to initially focus on domestic affairs.

Silva's favored successor is Dilma Rousseff, his former chief of staff. A one-time revolutionary who was tortured during the nation's 1964-1985 dictatorship, she has never run for office before.

The other main candidate, Sao Paulo state Gov. Jose Serra, is seen as a capable but bland technocrat.

Either will have to spend months stitching together alliances among the 40 parties expected to win seats in Brazil's Congress and will face problems ranging from divvying up revenues from huge new offshore oil finds to reforms of Brazil's Byzantine labor and tax rules.

It could take them years to build up the international clout Silva won through frequent trips abroad and with huge domestic popularity now above 80 percent that translated into global respect.

''Does the Iran deal mean Brazil will play a significant role after Lula? I think it remains to be seen,'' Garman said.

Silva has said he won't publicly second guess the actions of his country's next president, but has dropped only hints of what he wants to do next.

He has brushed aside suggestions he could become secretary-general of the United Nations, or president of the World Bank, but has said he wants to promote Latin American integration and use Brazil's experience in easing misery and boosting growth to foster development in Africa.

He's not immune to controversy. Last year, the tough-talking Silva made headlines when he blamed the global financial meltdown on ''white people with blue eyes'' while standing next to Britain's prime minister.

Analysts agreed the Iran deal could help catapult him into nearly any international leadership position he wants.

''Will Lula use this capital to propel himself into another position? Of course. He'll be an ex-president in search of a role he does not want to abandon,'' said Alexandre Barros, who runs the Early Warning political risk group in Brasilia.

Clinton attacks Turkey-Brazil deal with Iran

By Daniel Dombey in Washington, Harvey Morris at the United Nations and Geoff Dyer in Beijing

Published: May 18 2010 19:19 | Last updated: May 18 2010 19:19

Hillary Clinton on Tuesday all but accused Turkey and Brazil of being international ingénues, suckered into a spoiling operation by Iran.

Mrs Clinton's criticism of this week's Turkish-Brazilian deal with Iran – hailed by the two countries' governments as a genuine breakthrough – was a sign of the tension between established and rising powers on the world stage.

It came as those countries with the trappings of traditional power – most notably permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council – appeared to reassert their authority, approving a draft sanctions resolution regardless of the development in Tehran.

"We don't believe it was any accident that Iran agreed to this declaration as we were preparing to move forward in New York," said Mrs Clinton.

"With all due respect to my Brazilian and Turkish friends, the fact we had Russia on board, we had China on board and that we were moving . . .to share the text of that resolution [with other Security Council members] put pressure on Iran that they were trying to somehow dissipate." Yesterday's moves were also the result of extensive US contacts with Russia and China – both traditionally sceptical about sanctions. In recent weeks, the Obama administration has revived a civil nuclear deal with Moscow, explicitly citing Russia's co-operation on the Iran file as a reason for doing so, while negotiations have intensified with China.

The draft resolution being presented on Tuesday at the Security Council by Susan Rice, US envoy to the UN, was the first opportunity for its 10 non-permanent members to consider the proposals.

Mrs Clinton added that the US was "seriously concerned" by a number of issues missing from Monday's agreement with Iran – chiefly Tehran's continued enrichment of uranium in breach of five UN resolutions. This concern was echoed by Russia's president Dmitry Medvedev. The US also cited "the amorphous timeline" for Iran's proposed export of 1,200kg of low-enriched uranium to neighbouring Turkey, and the prospect of protracted further negotiations.

Russia in particular has shown increasing signs of frustration with Iran, not least since last year, when Tehran was revealed to be operating a secret uranium enrichment plant and did not immediately take up a "confidence building" proposal that Moscow had helped craft with the US.

Ironically, the Brazilian-Turkish deal that Iran embraced this week was a variant on that proposal. But in the intervening months, Russian patience has run short and Iran's uranium stockpile has grown, reducing the potential significance of such an agreement. Speaking in Washington this week, Sergei Ivanov, Russian deputy prime minister, suggested that sanctions and the exchange agreement need not be linked and that both could proceed at the same time.

China, which has deepening commercial ties with Iran, has been the most reluctant among the Security Council's five permanent members to impose sanctions. Some US officials signalled that Beijing had removed some of the more effective measures from the draft resolution, including those that would have limited energy investment in Iran and taken sweeping action against its financial sector. Beijing has also gone further than the other permanent members to welcome the Turkish-Brazilian deal. "We attach importance to and support this agreement," Ma Zhaoxu, a spokesman at the Chinese foreign ministry, said.

On Tuesday, it was not clear whether the announcement in Iran had prompted the US to settle for what it could get from China rather than hold out for tougher measures. Washington is certainly in a hurry: it wants the Security Council to pass a sanctions resolution in June as a first step before a series of other measures can be taken against Iran, including European Union sanctions unilateral moves by the US Treasury.

'South-south' diplomacy put to the test

By David Gardner in London and Delphine Strauss in Ankara

Published: May 19 2010 03:00 | Last updated: May 19 2010 03:00

The agreement touted by Brazil and Turkey on Monday as a possible solution to the controversy over Iran's nuclear ambitions may yet turn out to be another diplomatic false dawn.

But whatever its fate, it reflects a new willingness on the part of emerging regional powers to chance their arm in so-called "south-south" diplomacy - and on intractable issues where western diplomats have run aground.

History suggests emerging powers are often diplomatic failures. The old non-aligned movement launched at Bandung in 1955 perished between the grindstones of the cold war and serial regional conflicts.

On a regional level, the Association of South-east Asian Nations appears as little able - or willing - to do anything about Burma as the African Union can about Zimbabwe.

The Arab League is impotent both to resolve conflicts within its region or to give the Arabs a respected voice in world affairs. The Mexican-inspired Tlatelolco Treaty of 1967, making all of Latin America and the Caribbean a nuclear weapons-free zone after the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, was a rare success.

Will the Brazilian-Turkish initiative on Iran prove to be another?

Both Brazil under Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Turkey under Recep Tayyip Erdogan have started trying to punch their regional and international weight.

They lead confident countries, allied to the west but semi-detached from western agendas. They are both temporary members of the UN Security Council.

If the deal with Iran is remotely successful, they will have demonstrated that the world's paramount geopolitical forum is not just the P5 - the Security Council's permanent members and nuclear powers with veto rights: the US, Russia, China, France and the UK.

Turkey's activist foreign policy in the wider Middle East, the Balkans, the Caucasus and central Asia is designed both to reassert its role as a regional power and transform a combustible regional stalemate. The conflict over Iran's nuclear ambitions is just one part of this, but is seen by everyone in the region as a potentially deadly trigger.

"We have found a niche in these areas - people are accepting our role - it is not about building a neo-Ottoman empire, it is about stability," says Selim Yenel, undersecretary at the Turkish foreign ministry.

US President Barack Obama's policy of engagement with Iran - alongside the preparation of new sanctions as an alternative to armed conflict - paradoxically opened the way to this new south-south initiative.

For Iran's leaders, it is easier to sell an agreement under the auspices of Brazil and Turkey. Mr Erdogan, in particular, is probably the most admired Muslim leader, and while Turkey is a Nato member, it also chairs the Organisation of the Islamic Conference.

Turkish politicians view the deal as a vindication of their policy of engagement with Iran.

"There is no uncertainty left and Iran has shown a clear political will," Ahmet Davutoglu, Turkish foreign minister and the principal architect of the agreement on Turkey's side, said yesterday. "This is not the day to muddy the waters with negative scenarios including sanctions."

Soli Ozel, a political scientist at Istanbul's Bilgi university, said the new initiatives by the emerging powers were "a sign of the times, that the world is not going to take the diktats of the powers that have run it for the last two to three hundred years".

Nations Agree on Iran Curbs

MAY 18, 2010 | By PETER SPIEGEL, JAY SOLOMON And JOE LAURIA

WASHINGTON—The U.S. announced a long-sought deal with Russia and China on a new list of sanctions to punish Iran for its nuclear program, and the United Nations took them up within hours, in a move to reassert control of nuclear diplomacy after Tehran tried to pre-empt sanctions a day earlier.

Washington called the proposed list the toughest sanctions to date, but U.S. officials acknowledged they had to be softened in key areas to gain Russian and Chinese agreement.

And even as China joined in, Beijing's foreign ministry also praised the last-minute deal Iran made with Brazil and Turkey as "welcome," and dubbed the two rival efforts "dual tracks"—leaving some uncertainty over where China would ultimately side.

The agreement on a draft U.N. resolution was reached within the last several days. Senior administration officials said its unveiling was timed as a direct response to the Turkish-Brazilian pact, in which Tehran renewed an offer to swap much of its nuclear fuel outside its borders for enrichment.

"This announcement is as convincing an answer to the efforts undertaken in Tehran over the last few days as any we could provide," Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on Tuesday.

Russian ambassador to the U.N. Vitaly Churkin told reporters that Russia would have preferred to wait a day or two after the Brazil-Iranian deal, but the U.S. wanted to put it on the table right away.

Western officials feared that the deal reached in Tehran could throw up new hurdles to the already-delayed sanctions regime.

Mrs. Clinton said Tuesday that while the U.S. believed Turkey and Brazil's moves were "sincere efforts," the U.S. and its fellow permanent members of the U.N. Security council were "proceeding to rally the international community on behalf of a strong sanctions resolution."

There was no public reaction from Iranian officials by late Tuesday to the announcement of a sanctions deal.

The Turkish and Brazilian efforts still could throw a wrench into the U.S. plans. Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti, Brazil's ambassador to the U.N., told reporters outside the Security Council after seeing the draft that Brazil wasn't ready to engage in negotiations over the text because of the "new situation" presented by the fuel-swap deal.

"It is the first time that the Iranians, at such a high level, have put in writing the swap, which creates a new confidence building," she said. The fuel-swap deal is not "meant to address all the issues," she added, "but it is a very important first step and we should seize this opportunity."

China has long been the most resistent permanent member of the U.N. Security Council to sanctions, partly because of its reliance on Iranian oil. China's veto power has forced the U.S. to vigorously pursue its support and compromise on key elements of the plan. Beijing's use of the "dual tracks" phrase, meanwhile, echoed U.S. language promising to keep pursuing diplomacy along with punishment.

The proposed sanctions list includes a prohibition of sales on a wide range of conventional weapons—from fighter planes to missile systems—as well as a ban on countries from providing harbor to ships suspected of carrying contraband goods headed to Iran.

Overall they are significantly weaker than earlier drafts circulated by the administration. Many provisions contain loopholes allowing countries to evade their intent: They only urge, rather than require, countries to comply.

"We think this is a strong resolution that will substantially increase the pressure on Iran and the isolation that it feels, but it is part of a process and is not an end in itself," said a senior U.S. official involved in the negotiations.

U.S. officials acknowledged the new resolution alone was unlikely to halt Iran's nuclear ambitions; instead, they said it could lead other countries to enact their own unilateral financial sanctions that could have more bite.

The U.S. initially hoped to blacklist two of Iran's major transportation companies, the state-owned Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines and IranAir Cargo.

Both are alleged to play a major role in moving Iranian arms and procuring equipment for Iran's nuclear program. The current draft, however, calls for closer scrutiny of the companies' operations.

In addition, U.S. officials had initially hoped to secure an international ban on investments in certain Iranian financial instruments, like bonds, and in Iran's insurance sector.

The current draft only calls for greater scrutiny of the indemnification of companies that could be involved in Iran's weapons trade. The U.S. also backed off an earlier plan to blacklist Iran's central bank.

The resolution avoids measures against Iran's biggest economic driver, its energy industry, despite calls by some members of Congress for "crippling sanctions" aimed specifically at the sector.

Legislation passed by both houses of Congress, for instance, would require sanctions against any foreign companies doing business with Iran's oil industry.

"There's no doubt that broader sanctions, aimed at the oil and gas sectors, would hurt more," said Sharon Squassoni, former head of nonproliferation at the State Department now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "But few states have been willing to cut their ties with an important source of oil and gas; they don't want to lose out on future investments."

Important U.S. allies like Japan and South Korea are major buyers of Iranian crude and officials have argued that to deprive them of the ability to buy Iranian oil would be destabilizing for global energy markets.

Still, U.S. officials said they believed the sanctions resolution could have a significant impact on Iran's ability to build up its nuclear capabilities with impunity.

Among the provisions most touted by U.S. officials is a measure that calls upon countries to block any financial transaction that could be tied to Iranian nuclear proliferation.

The senior U.S. official said the provision was similar to, but broader than, a measure adopted last year in sanctions against North Korea, adding it has proven among the most effective tools in curtailing Pyongyang's program.

"It has been a very effective tool for the U.S. and others to limit and call into question financial transactions across the globe that could contribute to Iran's nuclear or proliferation-sensitive activities," the official said.

Though the U.S. failed to formally blacklist IRISL, the Iranian shipping company, or IranAir, U.S. officials still believe they can use the latest resolution to significantly impact Tehran's ability to import and export dual-use technologies and to prove arms support for Iranian allies, such as the militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah.

An earlier 2008 U.N. resolution already calls for member states to closely scrutinize the operations of these companies.

And the U.S. Treasury has used this language to launch a global campaign to pressure international insurance companies not do business with IRISL or Iran Air.

In recent months, important insurance "clubs" in the U.K and Bermuda have ceased doing business with IRISL. U.S. officials believe they're greatly increasing the cost of Iran's business dealings.

U.S. officials hope the newest resolution will give Treasury greater powers to pressure international corporations away from doing business with Iran, by naming specific companies they should shy away from. It could serve as informal embargo on Iran if its transportation companies can't operate internationally, U.S. officials said.

Washington on Tuesday also offered a detailed critique of the Turkish-Brazilian deal struck in Tehran. Although it bears some of the hallmarks of the original deal offered to Iran last year—allowing Tehran to ship its nuclear fuel overseas to be enriched to levels used in medical research—Mrs. Clinton said it still had significant failings, particularly Iran's refusal to halt its own nuclear enrichment.

Mrs. Clinton said the deal also had an "amorphous timeline" for removing the low-enriched uranium from Iran, which could take "months of further negotiation" to begin. "That is just not acceptable to us and to our partners," she said.

—Chip Cummins and Jason Dean contributed to this article.

UPDATE:Brazil Finance Minister:BRIC To Lead World Growth In 2010

MAY 19, 2010, 5:34 A.M. ET

MADRID (Dow Jones)--Emerging economies will lead global growth in coming years, with Brazil, Russia, India and China, known as the BRIC countries, accounting for two-thirds of world growth this year, Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega said Wednesday.

Brazil's economy, according to conservative estimates by the finance ministry, is expected to expand 5.5% to 6% in 2010, Mantega said. He spoke at a conference on the Brazilian economy.

Europe will take longer than previously expected to recover from the economic downturn due to its current sovereign-debt crisis, Mantega added.

Growth in Brazil will hardly be affected by the crisis in Europe, as expansion in the Latin American country will be driven by domestic demand, he said.

Economic growth in Brazil is sustainable, and a recent rise in inflation was only due to heavy rainfall that destroyed crops and temporarily made some foodstuff products more expensive, Mantega said

"The forecast is for inflation to fall in coming months," he said.

Brazil's 12-month IPCA consumer price inflation through April reached 5.26%, well above the country's official year-end inflation target of 4.5%

In a move to slow Brazil's rapidly expanding economy and curb accelerating inflation, the government last week announced it will cut 10 billion reais ($5.65 billion) from planned public-sector spending this year.

Planning Minister Paulo Bernardo at the same conference in Madrid said Wednesday that the government doesn't intend to "put the brakes" on the economy, but only to slow growth down to a more reasonable level that will allow it to expand by more than 5% also in coming years.

Mantega actually wanted spending cuts to reach BRL20 billion, Bernardo added.

Iran signs nuclear swap deal

(China Daily)| Updated: 2010-05-18 07:50

TEHERAN - Brazil and Turkey signed a nuclear fuel swap agreement on Monday designed to allay international concern over the Islamic Republic's atomic ambitions and avert fresh UN sanctions against Teheran.

It was not immediately clear whether the terms of the deal, hammered out in talks between leaders of the three countries in Teheran, would fully satisfy major powers which have been discussing a new round of punitive UN measures against Teheran.

Iran said it had agreed to transfer 1,200 kg of low-enriched uranium to Turkey within a month in return for higher-enriched nuclear fuel for a medical reactor.

No more than one year later, Iran will get 120 kg of 20 percent enriched uranium under an arrangement involving the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), as well as the United States, France and Russia.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said Iran's low-enriched uranium would be under IAEA supervision in Turkey, state Press TV reported.

But Iran also will continue its uranium enrichment activities, including production of 20 percent enriched uranium, even after signing a nuclear fuel swap deal with Turkey and Brazil on Monday, a senior official said.

"There is no relation between the swap deal and our enrichment activities ... We will continue our 20 percent uranium enrichment work," said Ali Akbar Salehi, head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization.

Iran, which says its atomic program is purely for peaceful purposes and not to make bombs as the West suspects, had earlier insisted any such exchange must take place on its territory.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called on six world powers, which have been discussing further UN sanctions on the major oil producer, to start new negotiations with his country.

"Following the signing of the nuclear fuel swap deal, it is time for the 5 plus 1 countries to enter talks with Iran based on honesty, justice and mutual respect," he said, referring to the five permanent UN Security Council members and Germany.

Turkish Foreign Mivznister Ahmet Davutoglu hailed the deal as a "historic turning point" and said there was no need for the world to consider any further punitive measures.

"The swap deal, signed by Iran today, shows that Teheran wants to open a constructive path," he told reporters. "There is no more ground for new sanctions and pressures."

There was no immediate comment from Washington, which has been leading a Western push to impose extra sanctions on Iran, or from the IAEA in Vienna.

Last chance

A senior EU diplomat said Monday's agreement could not be considered a breakthrough unless it was fundamentally based on a fuel-swap proposal made by the IAEA last year.

"But if this is some new suggestion that goes in a different direction, then it would appear to be stalling."

A mediation offer by Turkey and Brazil, both non-permanent Security Council members, had been seen as the last chance to resolve the dispute and avoid a fourth round of UN sanctions.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan and Ahmadinejad clinched the agreement after talks in Teheran, Iranian state media reported.

"We want to ensure that Iran has its right to peaceful use of nuclear energy, including uranium enrichment but at the same time gives guarantees to the international community," Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim told reporters.

"The swap agreement is in a way a confidence-building measure that allows Iran and the international community to have a cooperation that will eliminate doubts."

Major world powers had urged Iran to accept a months-old IAEA plan to ship 1,200 kg of its low-enriched uranium abroad - enough for a single bomb if purified to a high enough level - in exchange for fuel for a medical research reactor in Teheran.

The proposal, backed by the US, Russia and France, was aimed at giving time for diplomatic talks with Iran.

Teheran agreed in principle to the deal in October but then demanded changes such as a simultaneous swap on Iranian soil, conditions other parties in the deal said were unacceptable.

The ministry said Iran would formally notify the IAEA Agency about Monday's swap deal within a week.

Trita Parsi, director of the Washington-based National Iranian American Council, said a potential breakthrough had been made in the long-running dispute, saying Turkey and Brazil had succeeded in filling a "trust gap".

"But will the deal be satisfactory to the US, with the details remaining unknown, it's impossible to speculate," Parsi said in an email comment.

Reuters

Major powers agree on Iran resolution

(Agencies) | Updated: 2010-05-18 22:57

WASHINGTON - Major world powers have agreed on a draft sanctions resolution against Iran and will circulate it to the full U.N. Security Council on Tuesday, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told lawmakers.

"We have reached agreement on a strong draft with the cooperation of Russia and China," Clinton said of talks among the five permanent Security Council members -- Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States - as well as Germany.

"We plan to circulate the draft resolution to the entire Security Council today," Clinton added in a text released by the U.S. State Department of her comments before the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

The United States and its Western allies accuse Iran of using its civilian nuclear program as a cover under which to develop nuclear weapons. Iran denies this, saying its nuclear program is solely to generate electricity.

Iran nuclear fuel swap deal: Is Brazil's Lula now a diplomatic big boy?

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's brokering of the Iran nuclear fuel swap deal appears to show that mid-level players can have a say in the biggest issues of the day. But if the deal ultimately fails, it could come at a cost to his prestige.

Bogotá, Colombia

When Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad stood together Monday, trumpeting the new Iran nuclear fuel swap deal they hashed out with Turkey over the weekend, the Brazilian president wore the face of victory.

Lula, as the president is known, has been slowly carving a bigger role for himself and Brazil on the global stage.

He's argued for a seat on the United Nations Security Council. He's used his clout as leader of the world's future breadbasket and rising regional power to push for a greater voice for the developing countries of the "global south." And now, just months before he finishes his second and final term in office, he has achieved his greatest diplomatic victory.

Lula's brokering of the deal appears to show that such mid-level players as Brazil and Turkey can have a say in the biggest issues of the day. But should the deal ultimately fail, as many nations have warned, it could also backfire.

"If a deal was struck and it is successful, it will be a major positive mark in Brazilian diplomacy historically. It is Brazil´s passport into the big boys club of world diplomacy," says João Augusto de Castro Neves, political analyst with the CAC consulting firm in Brasilia and currently based in Washington. "But we are still not sure, in Brazil or anywhere, of what was reached."