Clipping Internacional, 07 de maio de 2010

G-20 Nears Deal On Capital Rules

07/06/2010

By MICHAEL M. PHILLIPS And ALEX FRANGOS

BUSAN, South Korea—The world's leading economic powers edged toward agreement on new rules to ensure that major banks keep enough money in reserve to insulate them against future crises.

Top finance officials from the Group of 20 major industrial and developing economies agreed over the weekend they would finish work on the tightened banking standards before their leaders meet for a summit in Seoul in November, ahead of their original year-end goal.

"It is critical that our banking regulators develop capital and liquidity rules of sufficient rigor to allow our financial firms to withstand future downturns in the global financial system," the finance ministers and central bankers said in a statement at the end of the two-day meeting Saturday on the Korean coast.

Amid these signs of progress, the G-20 remained at odds over another central policy goal: imposing a global levy on financial institutions, either to recoup public expenditures on bailouts or to raise money that might be used to address the next crisis.

The global financial crisis that began in 2008 focused international attention on the technical question of how much, and what kind, of capital banks should have on hand to protect against shocks.

American banks reeled when securities backed by failing home mortgages turned sour, leading to big government bailouts. Likewise, European banks now appear shaky because of their holdings of government bonds from Greece and other financially unstable nations.

Just a few months ago, talks dubbed Basel III, after the Swiss town where they take place, appeared in danger, with countries bickering over, among other issues, whether certain types of securities counted as a viable capital cushion.

U.S. officials said the talks gave more impetus than they had expected to the ground-level negotiations. Technical experts in the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision have the job of turning the general agreement into specific guidelines.

"Stronger capital and liquidity requirements and constraints on leverage are necessary to help ensure that global active financial institutions are better able to withstand future financial shocks and economic shocks," U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said.

The G-20 vowed to aim to implement the new rules by the end of 2012, but there has been discussion recently of pushing back that target for countries nervous about exposing weakness in their banks.

In fact, while they plan to announce a broad agreement at the November summit, G-20 members are still pondering how and when to reveal the specifics of what will constitute acceptable types and levels of capital.

European officials arrived in South Korea under pressure from some of their counterparts and from financial markets to explain just how they would use their new €440 billion ($527 billion) loan entity, part of a $900 billion rescue effort for troubled European Union member states.

Euro-zone governments are close to agreement among themselves on specifics for implementing their planned bailout for the Continent's struggling governments, and they could announce a formal accord as early as Monday, officials here said.

Mr. Geithner welcomed signs of accord within the euro zone. "That will be helpful," he told reporters. "I think people want to see what the details are."

On the G-20 agenda was the related matter of how to solve Europe's dilemma of needing to cut government borrowing at the same time that economies there are relying on state spending for growth and employment. Spending cuts on pensions and public-sector jobs could assuage financial markets in the near term but could also lead to slower growth, hurting countries' abilities to pay down debt.

"The recent events highlight the importance of sustainable public finances and the need for our countries to put in place credible, growth-friendly measures," said the statement at the meeting's end.

 

A War for Hearts and Minds, Economically Speaking

By DEVIN LEONARD | Published: June 4, 2010

A YEAR ago, Ian Bremmer was invited to the Chinese Consulate in New York, along with a group of economists and scholars, to discuss the financial crisis. Shortly after he arrived, Mr. Bremmer, a political risk consultant who has been widely published, was surprised to hear a Chinese diplomat ask them, "Now that the free market has failed, what do you think is the proper role for the state in the economy?"

Mr. Bremmer was at a loss for words. He didn't agree with the first part of the question. As for the second part, he felt strongly that the correct response was: "as minimal as possible."

But this was an inconvenient time to make such an argument. Only months earlier, President Obama signed the $787 billion stimulus spending bill. Clearly, in America at least, the free market wasn't doing so well.

Mr. Bremmer recounts this tale in the introduction of "The End of the Free Market: Who Wins the War Between States and Corporations?" (Portfolio, 230 pages) his well-crafted, thought-provoking book about the rise of state-controlled economies like China and Russia and the challenges they pose to American companies — and, ultimately, to the United States itself.

The author stops short of calling this a new cold war — well, just barely. The way he sees it, China and Russia are using what he calls "state capitalism" to advance the interests of their companies at the expense of their American rivals. But that is not the only battle he describes in his book. The other is the struggle for the hearts and minds of emerging-market giants like Brazil and India that are leaning toward the free market, but still haven't fully embraced it.

The stakes could be enormous. Mr. Bremmer argues that if the United States and its allies can prevail, their leading businesses will have access to natural resources and growing numbers of middle-class consumers in these nations. But if they fail, the West could be shut out of the very markets where much of the world's economic growth is expected to occur in the next few years.

The problem, Mr. Bremmer says, is that state capitalists are in a very strong position at the moment. He's right. The world blames the United States — as it should — for hatching and exporting the 2008 financial crisis. And as the global economy finally recovers, guess which nation is leading the way? Not America, but China — where the economy is still tightly controlled by the Communist Party.

"The lesson that many emerging-market governments took from the crisis is that free-market capitalism had ignited a wildfire," Mr. Bremmer laments, "and that those who depended on it most had suffered the worst burns."

You probably won't be surprised to hear that a free-market evangelist like Mr. Bremmer isn't a liberal. He praises Margaret Thatcher of Britain for privatizing a slew of government-owned businesses. And he thinks China should take such steps, too. He feels the same about Russia, which privatized many of its state-run businesses in the 1990s only to reassert more control after the rise of Vladimir V. Putin.

But neither is Mr. Bremmer a doctrinaire conservative. Refreshingly, he argues that the United States needs to stand shoulder to shoulder with its capitalist allies in Europe against the threat he sees. He doesn't deny that there are differences between American capitalism and the Scandinavian variety, to say nothing of the French, which the American right never tires of bashing. Yet he argues that the United States and Europe share a core assumption that the private sector, not government, should be a primary engine of growth.

This, he says, is what the creation of the European Union creation was all about. "It's the attraction of the free market that has brought Europe together as never before," he writes.

The same cannot be said of the practitioners of state capitalism. Mr. Bremmer argues that the ruling elites of countries like China, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela use state-owned companies to further political agendas.

Often, he writes, leaders of some state-capitalist nations use profits of these businesses to dole out social-welfare goodies and thus stay in power. Sometimes, he says, they use the companies to make life hard for neighbors — as Russia did when Gazprom, its state-controlled natural gas company, cut off supplies to Ukraine in 2006. Ukraine's offense had been to cozy up to the West and adopt a smattering of free-market measures.

Mr. Bremmer's biggest fear is that the so-called BRIC nations — Brazil, Russia, India and China — will do more business with one another, leaving the United States out in the cold. That would be devastating for the American economy. And it's not a paranoid fantasy, either. Last year, the four countries' leaders met in Russia and discussed ways to reduce dependence on America.

What is to be done? The author makes a curious suggestion: that the United States raise military spending and act as the world's cop — which no BRIC is yet equipped to do. That may seem a bit shortsighted. In many ways, American mistakes in the Iraq war were an invaluable gift to our state-capitalist foes who have used them, fairly or unfairly, to paint America as a rogue state.

Luckily, this isn't his only suggestion. He warns American politicians not to pander for votes by pushing anti-free-market initiatives like protectionism. He says many emerging-market nations — like India, Brazil, South Korea, Turkey and South Africa — have one foot in the free market and the other in state capitalism. They could go either way.

Mr. Bremmer says their leaders are watching to see what the West truly believes when it comes to the economy. In other words, if we are going to preach free-market capitalism, we'd better practice it ourselves.

 

Clinton Warns Of Iran "Stunt" Ahead Of Latam Visit

By REUTERS | Published: June 6, 2010

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned on Sunday of Iran "stunts" ahead of a visit to Latin America where regional powerhouse Brazil opposes the U.S. drive for new U.N. sanctions over Tehran's nuclear program.

Clinton said she fully expected Iran to "pull some stunt" in the coming days to try to divert pressure for sanctions, but predicted this would fail.

"I think we'll see something coming up in the next 24 to 48 hours," Clinton told reporters aboard her plane before departing. "I don't think anybody should be surprised if they try to divert attention once again from the unity within the Security Council ... but we have the votes," she said.

Clinton's trip takes her to Peru for a meeting of the Organization of American States (OAS), followed by stops in Ecuador, Colombia and Barbados.

The Obama administration has battled perceptions in Latin America that early vows of close cooperation have failed to materialize along with pledges to liberalize treatment of Cuba and to review immigration laws.

"The expectations in the region ran way ahead of reality and there is a certain disappointment and cynicism that has set it," said Eric Farnsworth, vice president of the Washington, D.C.-based Council of the Americas.

"Some of these things are devilishly difficult and it is not going to happen overnight," he said. "The secretary is going to try to put this in a broader context."

U.S.-Brazil ties have been strained by possible new U.N. sanctions on Tehran, which Washington has said it hopes to put to a U.N. Security Council vote this week. Brazil, along with Turkey, wants more time for diplomacy.

Both sides say the Iran issue is only one part of a broad and growing U.S.-Brazil relationship. But the dispute has set the United States publicly at odds with Latin America's fastest rising power as it stakes out a spot on the world stage.

DISAGREEMENT ON HONDURAS

Clinton's trip, her second to the region in three months, is aimed at reaffirming Washington's commitment to Latin America on everything from the battle against drug trafficking to promoting regional trade.

But differences could erupt at the OAS meeting in Peru, particularly over the question of whether to readmit Honduras after a 2009 coup toppled President Manuel Zelaya.

The United States helped to broker November elections that put President Porfirio Lobo in power and says his administration deserves OAS recognition. Brazil and Argentina oppose it, arguing his government still has roots in a coup.

"There still are some countries that believe that Honduras should take additional steps, which is a position that's different from that of the United States," Assistant Secretary of State Arturo Valenzuela said at a briefing.

In Colombia, Clinton will meet the country's two presidential candidates, due for a June 20 run-off, as well as signal U.S. support for its closest regional ally despite a planned $55 million cut in aid.

She also will make a quick visit to Ecuador, whose leftist President Rafael Correa has ties with a regional bloc that also includes Bolivia's Evo Morales and Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, who is a loud critic of U.S. policy.

"We don't want Correa to go the way of Chavez and he has done some pretty quirky things," said Johanna Mendelson Forman, a Latin America expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think-tank. "This is to show we are not isolating them."

IRAN ISSUE LOOMS

Despite the Latin America focus, Iran looks certain to push its way onto Clinton's agenda.

The United States is pushing hard for new U.N. sanctions, saying Iran's violations of its nuclear obligations leave no doubt it seeks atomic weapons -- a charge Tehran denies.

But Brazil and Turkey, both now nonpermanent members of the council, have sought to revive a proposed atomic fuel deal for Tehran, declaring that sanctions should be avoided.

The United States has built a fragile consensus with the four other veto-wielding permanent Security Council members, Britain, France, Russia and China, and says the fuel deal idea fails to address core concerns over Iran's nuclear ambitions.

But the Security Council showdown with two of the developing world's most influential countries over Iran could underscore the limits of U.S. influence over even friendly emerging powers like Brazil.

"The United States has still not factored in the inescapable conclusion that Brazil today is on an irrevocable path toward independent foreign policy," said Larry Birns, director of the Council on Hemispheric Affairs in Washington.

(Editing by Bill Trott and Eric Walsh)

 

With Drilling Stopped, Losses Could Multiply

By TOM ZELLER Jr. | Published: June 4, 2010

Chett Chiasson, the executive director of Port Fourchon in Louisiana, has a message for President Obama — and any Americans who have applauded the administration's decision to halt deep-water drilling in the Gulf of Mexico: You just don't get it.

"I don't know that this country realizes the cascading impacts of this moratorium," said Mr. Chiasson, whose estimates that his port handles 90 percent of the traffic servicing the deep-water oil and gas industry in the gulf. "It's going to have an impact for years to come."

The Interior Department's six-month moratorium on deep-water drilling most directly affects 17 oil companies, including multinational giants like BP, Exxon Mobil, Shell and Chevron. The order, issued May 27, forced 33 rigs to shut down operations.

Every one of those rigs is serviced out of Port Fourchon, according to Mr. Chiasson, so the drilling ban could end up slashing the incomes of thousands of other workers — from welders and divers to caterers and drivers — who depend on the industry.

One oil industry group, the Louisiana Mid-Continent Oil and Gas Association, has estimated that each exploration and production job represents four supporting jobs in and around the region. If that is the case, thousands of jobs — and millions of dollars in wages — could be affected by the work stoppage, the group said.

With that in mind, a growing chorus of residents, business owners and local politicians in the gulf region are imploring the Obama administration to reconsider the deep-water drilling ban.

"We need to know what you are prepared to do to prevent catastrophic damage to our battered economy," said an editorial addressed to the president that appeared in The Times-Picayune of New Orleans on Friday. "It is not clear, Mr. President, why it will take six months to determine what went wrong on Deepwater Horizon and how to remedy safety deficiencies."

In a separate letter Wednesday to Mr. Obama and Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana said: "During one of the most challenging economic periods in decades, the last thing we need is to enact public policies that will certainly destroy thousands of existing jobs while preventing the creation of thousands more."

During a visit to Louisiana on Friday, Mr. Obama said he is sympathetic to the concerns and has urged his bipartisan commission investigating the spill to take less than six months to make their recommendations, if at all possible. However, the president added, "I'm not going to cut corners on it."

"If we don't do it right, then what you could end up seeing is an even worse impact on the oil industry down here, which is so important to so many jobs," Mr. Obama said.

Under a legislative proposal put forth by the White House, workers who lose their jobs as a result of the moratorium would be eligible for unemployment assistance, and new jobs would be created in cleanup, restoration, renovation and recovery.

But for Mr. Chiasson and the myriad businesses clustered around Port Fourchon, that is likely to be cold comfort.

"I have 37 employees, and I have to look at how I'm going to protect those jobs," Mr. Chiasson said.

When the Deepwater Horizon exploded April 20, releasing a still-continuing torrent of oil into the gulf, representatives from at least 13 different companies were on board. Besides high-level engineers and managers from Transocean, which operated the rig, and BP, which held the lease on it, the workers included cooks, tank washers and laundry workers employed by a medley of subcontracted companies.

A long-term pause in deep-water work could be devastating to local economies already struggling with fishing restrictions, frightened tourists and other effects of the spill.

The biggest concern, said Larry Wall, a spokesman for the regional oil and gas group, is that rig owners and operators will ultimately cancel their contracts and move operations to the coastal areas of Africa, Brazil or other points abroad, rather than let rigs sit idle.

Should that happen en masse, it is unlikely that deep-water work in the gulf would resume quickly even after the moratorium is lifted, given the time and expense involved in relocating rigs.

"The owner of the rig, once he goes overseas, it's two years minimum before he comes back," Mr. Wall said. "And there's a fixed number of those things in the world. If they keep moving, we're going to have a big problem in the gulf."

In some instances, oil companies are invoking what is known a "force majeure" clause in their drilling contracts with rig owners. Typically used in the event of hurricanes or other natural disasters, it allows the operator a way out of its contract when a major, unexpected event occurs.

Anadarko, one of the oil companies affected by the moratorium, said on Thursday that it had notified three of its drilling companies — Noble, Transocean and Diamond Offshore Drilling — of its plan to invoke the clause.

Diamond said that a different oil company also canceled a contract to use another one of its rigs, the Ocean Monarch.

Larry Dickerson, the president and chief executive of Diamond, said in an e-mail message that the future of that rig was "uncertain, with a move to international waters the most likely outcome."

Mr. Dickerson said that while his company had not yet reduced staff, if the rig were forced to relocate, it would normally use local workers. "I am sure our roustabouts and floor hands are worried," he said.

Michael A. Pontiff, the sales manager for Gator Equipment Rental in Houma, La., a company that rents welding machines and air compressors to offshore drilling companies, said that he was not waiting for the worst, and that he had written letters to state leaders and Mr. Obama.

"I'm a simple person," Mr. Pontiff said. "I just want to know that our politicians are doing the right thing and that they know a lot of people's lives and livelihoods depend on it."

Jackie Calmes, Rob Harris and Robbie Brown contributed reporting.

 

Ahmadinejad's Sugar Daddy

How Brazilian ethanol could help Iran outwit American sanctions.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has been spending a lot of time with his Iranian counterpart Mahmoud Ahmadinejad lately, to the consternation of the former's supporters at home and friends elsewhere in the West. Brazil, currently a member of the U.N. Security Council, has been unapologetic about its newfound relationship with Iran, which produced a dubious nuclear fuel-swap deal last month; it defends Iran's right to enrich uranium and rejects any idea of tough economic sanctions. The budding friendship has baffled Washington: Why would this Latin American country, otherwise a U.S. ally, insist on cozying up to Iran to the detriment of its relations closer to home?

There are several possible explanations. Brazil has long harbored its own nuclear aspirations, and increasingly seeks to define its own foreign policy and emerge as an independent global power. But Lula's motives may be less complicated than all that: There are also $10 billion in Brazilian-Iranian trade deals to be had. Perhaps the most intriguing, and strategic, aspect of those trade relations has to do with sugar.

Brazil is the world's largest sugar grower. This year it experienced a bumper crop, with output growing 16 percent from a year earlier. But due to a global glut, sugar prices have plunged 57 percent since February. Because sugar cane is a perishable crop that cannot be stored, the best way for Brazil to generate value from its undervalued surplus is by converting it into ethanol, of which Brazil is already the second-largest producer (after the United States) and a major consumer (for years Brazilians have driven mostly flex-fuel cars, which can run on any combination of gasoline and ethanol). The country's ethanol production is expected to rise 19 percent to 8 billion gallons this year.

For Tehran, Brazil's surplus ethanol could be a strategic savior. Iran is a major exporter of crude oil, but lacks the refinery capacity to process most of it; as a result, the second-largest oil producer in OPEC depends on other countries' exports of refined gasoline. A conference committee in the U.S. Congress is hammering out legislation that aims to exploit this weakness by imposing sanctions on foreign companies that supply refined petroleum products to Iran. Tehran has been bracing for these sanctions for a while, taking measures to address its Achilles' heel: building seven new refineries, expanding existing ones, converting cars to run on natural gas (of which Iran has the world's second-largest reserves), and securing alternative gasoline supplies from China and Venezuela.

But none of these efforts would give Iran the immediate injection of motor fuel it needs as swiftly as Brazil's ethanol. Brazil could replace most of the 5.8 million gallons of gasoline that Iran imports daily (a conventional internal-combustion car engine can handle up to 20 percent ethanol in its fuel blend without damage to the engine; in the United States most cars already run on 10 percent). Doing so would pull the teeth out of the gasoline sanctions legislation, rendering it useless before it even reaches President Barack Obama's desk.

If this were to happen, however, Congress and the Obama administration would have only themselves to blame. For years, Brazil has been clamoring to export its surplus ethanol to the United States, only to be blocked by lawmakers beholden to powerful American agricultural lobbies. If not for a prohibitive 54-cent-per-gallon import tariff on Brazilian ethanol -- not to mention a sugar quota and tariff system that restricts imports and keeps sugar prices in the United States much higher than the world price -- the fuel could have ended up in American gas tanks rather than reducing the country's leverage with Tehran.

But American lawmakers seem less afraid of a nuclear Iran than they are of angry American corn farmers and ethanol producers -- or, at least, want to have it both ways. Many champions of the Iran Refined Petroleum Sanctions Act, as the proposed legislation is called, are also defenders of the tariff. In the Senate, all but two of the nine co-sponsors of recently introduced legislation to extend the tariff -- which is due to expire next year -- by an additional five years are also co-sponsors of the Iran sanctions bill. Thirty-six supporters of the same sanctions act in the House of Representatives are also co-sponsors of the tariff-protecting Renewable Fuels Reinvestment Act.

The tariff on Brazilian ethanol has been a lingering source of tension between Brazil and the United States for years. Both Presidents George W. Bush and Obama, in their meetings with Lula, rejected his request to eliminate the tariff. Now Lula is taking his revenge, and it's surely a sweet one.

 

Brazil, North Korea: Brothers in trade

Jun 3, 2010 | By Bertil Lintner

BANGKOK - For more than a decade, the world around North Korea has been shrinking. In the wake of its missile and nuclear tests and recent accusations that it torpedoed a South Korean naval vessel, the list of internationally imposed sanctions and trade restrictions aimed at isolating the reclusive state has grown ever longer.

But the North Koreans, who have been in a state of war for more than half a century, have often found ingenious ways around those restrictions and added pressures from the United States, Japan and other countries, most visibly seen in the string of front companies and bank accounts it maintains across Asia.

Recent indications are that Pyongyang has sought willing trade partners outside of Asia and its new closest commercial ally appears to be Brazil. Relations between the two countries have warmed considerably since leftist Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva became president in January 2003.

The official Chinese news agency Xinhua reported in October 2004 that North Korea planned to open an embassy in Brasilia, its fourth in the Latin and South American region after Havana, Cuba, Lima, Peru and Mexico City. On May 23, 2006, the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) and the Brazilian media reported that the two countries had signed a trade agreement.

More recently, the KCNA reported last December that a "protocol on the amendment to the trade agreement" had been signed in the capital Pyongyang. "Present at the signing ceremony from the DPRK [Democratic People's Republic of Korea, or North Korea] side were Ri Ryong Nam, minister of foreign trade, and officials concerned and from the Brazilian side Arnaldo Carrilho, Brazilian ambassador to the DPRK, and embassy officials," according to the news report.

China's role in facilitating trade between Brazil and North Korea remains a matter of conjecture, but it is significant that the state mouthpiece Xinhua has eagerly reported on the warming of relations between the two countries. China remains Pyongyang's most important base for all kinds of foreign trade - legitimate as well as more convoluted business transactions through front companies in Beijing and elsewhere.

But North Korea also needs more discreet trading partners, as China is often criticized in international forums for its close relations with the North Korean regime and is undoubtedly closely watched by Western intelligence agencies. And it is hardly surprising that Brazil, which is known to harbor its own nuclear ambitions, albeit for stated peaceful purposes, has emerged as such a friendly nation to Pyongyang.

Significantly, Brazil has established what appears to be an understanding with another aspiring nuclear power: Iran. "Also like Iran, Brazil has cloaked key aspects of its nuclear technology in secrecy while insisting the program is for peaceful purposes, claims nuclear weapons experts have debunked," according to an April 20, 2006 Associated Press report.

While Brazil is more cooperative than Iran on international inspections, some worry its new enrichment capability - which eventually will create more fuel than is needed for its two nuclear plants [1] - suggests that South America's biggest nation may be rethinking its commitment to nuclear non-proliferation.

''Brazil is following a path very similar to Iran, but Iran is getting all the attention,'' said Marshall Eakin, a Brazil expert at Vanderbilt University in the United States. ''In effect, Brazil is benefiting from Iran's problems.''

In September 2009, Lula declared before the United Nations General Assembly: "Iran is entitled to the same rights as any other country in its use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes." He added to reporters outside the UN General Assembly, "I defend for Iran the same rights with respect to nuclear energy that I do for Brazil." He added: "If anyone is ashamed of having relations with Iran, it's not Brazil."

But it is Lula's budding cooperation with North Korea that is especially worrying to some Western observers. According to one longtime observer of the North Korean scene, "Both nations have long-standing ambitions to develop a nuclear capability as well as missiles and space-launched vehicles. Both have been the subject of intense US political pressure at times, Brazil on-and-off, North Korea all the time. And Brazil has access to technology that North Korea can only dream about."

Because Brazil is not on any international sanctions list, it is easier for it to obtain dual-use materials. It remains to be proven, however, that Brazil has served as a conduit for such goods ultimately destined for North Korea.

According to official trade statistics, available at www.stat-trade.com, North Korea's largest trading partner in 2009 was China, with two-way commerce totaling US$2.67 billion. That was followed by South-North Korean trade worth $1.68 billion. A surprising third on the list was Brazil with US$221 million in two-way trade, well ahead of Singapore, Hong Kong and North Korea's other traditional Asian trading partners.

The nominal figure may not be impressive in an international context, but it is substantial for North Korea, a country with an estimated total gross domestic product of about $22 billion. North Korea's trade with Brazil has recently increased almost at the pace it has decreased with Thailand, from where it previously sourced dual-use chemicals, raw materials and machinery. Thailand no longer figures prominently in recent trade statistics, which is noteworthy given that their two-way trade reached a record US$331 million in 2004.

Those deals were done under the government of Thaksin Shinawatra, who at one point even proposed signing a full-blown free-trade agreement with North Korea. In August 2005, the former Thai premier was formally invited by North Korean leader Kim Jong-il to visit Pyongyang. The visit never materialized, however, and when Thaksin was ousted in a September 2006 military coup, Thai-North Korean relations began to deteriorate. By 2008, bilateral trade between Thailand and North Korea fell to $76 million and in 2009 dipped further to $47.1 million.

Among North Korea's more remarkable export items before the September 2006 coup in Thailand were 1.3 tons of gold and 10 tons of silver. Another pre-arranged shipment of 12 tons of silver arrived in Bangkok in October of that year. However, business is now reportedly sluggish at the two main trading companies that North Korea is known to maintain in Bangkok, Star Bravo and Kosun Export Import.

Successive Thai governments that have ruled the country since Thaksin's overthrow are believed to have complied more strictly with international pressure to restrict dealings with North Korea. In Brazil, however, North Korea has a long history of involvement with various leftist groups, the distant offshoots of which are now in power in Brasilia.

North Korea expert Joseph S Bermudez wrote in his 1990 study "Terrorism: The North Korean Connection":

From 1968 to 1971 the DPRK provided financial and military assistance to several leftist organizations in Brazil, most notably to Carlos Marighella's National Liberating Action (Acao Libertadora Nacional - ALN) and the Revolutionary Popular Vanguard (Vanguarda Popular Revolucionaria - VPR). By November 1970, the DPRK established a training base in the Porto Alegre area, where a small number of guerrillas were given guerrilla warfare, small arms, and ideological training. A small number of ALN and VPR personnel is believed to have also received training within the DPRK.

Marighella - a Marxist, writer and founder of the ALN - was the leader of a militant movement that fought against Brazil's US-supported, authoritarian right-wing governments in the 1960s. In September 1969, the guerrillas even managed to kidnap US ambassador Charles Burke Elbrick for 78 hours. After his release in exchange for 15 imprisoned leftists, Elbrick remarked, "Being an ambassador is not always a bed or roses." Two months later, Marighella was killed in an encounter with Brazil's police. But on November 4, 2009, the 40th anniversary of the death of Marighella, Lula declared him a "national hero".

Although ideology may be less important than profits in today's capitalist world, there are old emotional bonds between North Korea and Brazil under Lula that should not be entirely discounted. Brazil may be among the countries which have condemned North Korea's nuclear program, as was shown when, in May 2009, the Brazilian government called on North Korea "to sign the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty and to strictly observe the moratorium on nuclear tests".

But bilateral trade between the two sides is nevertheless - in relative terms - now booming. In May last year, North Korea's Foreign Affairs Minister Pak Ui-chun arrived in Brazil to meet with his Brazilian counterpart, Celso Amorim. Pak expressed Pyongyang's interest in receiving assistance in its deep-water oil prospecting efforts from PETROBRAS (Brazilian Petroleum Corporation), while Amorim said his country was reportedly interested in exporting what he referred to as "farm" machinery.

So far no military hardware, or material that could have military applications, is known to have changed hands between North Korea and Brazil. But Pyongyang has found at least one new trading partner which could potentially replace some of its former business allies in Asia. It's a budding relationship that will be closely monitored by North Korea watchers in Japan and the West.

Note
1. According to the World Nuclear Association, construction on a third plant is "imminent", with a 66-month completion date.

Bertil Lintner is a former correspondent with the Far Eastern Economic Review and the author of Great Leader, Dear Leader: Demystifying North Korea under the Kim Clan. He is currently a writer with Asia Pacific Media Services.

 

Central banks look to tackle range of problems

By Jack Farchy

Published: June 7 2010 03:00 | Last updated: June 7 2010 03:00

Monetary policy will be in the spotlight this week, as central bankers in Europe and emerging economies face up to starkly different problems.

In Europe, where the European Central Bank as well as the Bank of England hold rate-setting meetings on Thursday, the focus is likely to be on the debt crisis causing turmoil in markets.

But emerging economies such as China and Brazil are struggling with inflationary pressures. In the case of China in particular, markets will be watching for any sign of overheating, indicating that a more aggressive policy crackdown may be in store.

The world's fastestgrowing large economy is due to release a slew of data this week. Figures on industrial production, fixed-asset investment and money supply for May will give an indication of whether the cooling measures the Chinese government has taken are having an effect. All three indicators are forecast to dip slightly from April.

"The ongoing unwinding of the stimulus package and the capacity reduction on energy-intensive sectors implies a likely moderation in investment," said economists at HSBC.

But they added that they did not expect a significant slowdown.

Chinese consumer price inflation is expected to continue to rise, hitting the government's target 3 per cent level for May from 2.8 per cent in April. That is likely to raise fears in the market of further tightening measures.

"Inflation is set to rise further in the coming months, outweighing growth risks as the top concern," HSBC said.

The UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation said last week that it expected the global cost of food imports to rise 11.5 per cent this year, driven by rising costs of high-value foods such as meat and dairy products, which Chinese consumers are eating in greater quantities. Chinese food inflation was at 5.9 per cent in April.

The Brazilian central bank, also facing rising inflation, is expected to hike the benchmark Selic rate by 75 basis points to 10.25 per cent this week.

Meanwhile, the ECB and the Bank are expected to keep rates on hold at 1 per cent and 0.5 per cent respectively, and analysts expect little move on rates for some time.

That is in spite of some positive economic data: April industrial production for Germany, released tomorrow, is expected to have risen 0.6 per cent from a month earlier, while orders are also expected to remain strong.

In the US, data on the strength of the consumer recovery is expected to be strong - although, after the non-farm payrolls report disappointed expectations last week, some of those predictions may be less confident.

A 0.2 per cent month-on-month rise is forecast for retail sales, while the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index is expected to rise to 75.0 in June from 73.6 in May.

 

Crop squeeze to boost orange juice price

By Jonathan Wheatley in São Paulo

Published: June 7 2010 03:00 | Last updated: June 7 2010 03:00

The price of orange juice will rise in coming months as Brazil's citrus crop, the largest, sees its worst harvest in seven years due to bad weather and diseases, according to Cutrale of Brazil, the leading orange juice producer.

Orange juice is a $20bn (£14bn) industry with prices affecting farmers in São Paulo and Florida, processors, trading houses and bottlers such as Coca-Cola and PepsiCo.

Carlos Viacava, Cutrale chief executive, said contracts being signed with orange producers this year in Brazil, which accounts for roughly half of the world's orange juice output, include price rises of 50 to 60 per cent.

"Some of the producers we were paying R$5 (£1.85)

a box are now getting R$14 or R$15 a box," he told the Financial Times, although he said the average increase was smaller.

Oranges are sold in boxes weighing 90lbs (40.8kg).

In New York, frozen concentrate of orange juice futures traded last week at 136 cents per pound, down from a two-year high of 153 cents set in March.

FCOJ prices have risen 95 per cent since January 2009 on the back of lower crops.

The rise comes as Cutrale forecasts orange output in 2010-11 in Brazil's citrus belt at 286m boxes, down 6.2 per cent from 2009-10 and the smallest since 2003-04.

Prices could be further affected if the harvest in Florida, the second-biggest producer, is hit by hurricanes this summer, with meteorologists forecasting one of the most active storm seasons.

The crop is already expected to be low due to frost this year and the impact of the so-called greening disease.

The US Department of Agriculture forecasts Florida's crop at 136m boxes in 2009-10, the lowest in more than a decade and down 15 per cent from 2008-09.

François Sonneville, an orange juice analyst at Rabobank, said the supply concentration in Brazil and the US has led to economies of scale and made orange juice more affordable but "the drawback is that it has also made the supply vulnerable to the impact from diseases and extreme weather events".

The warning of higher prices comes as the Brazilian orange industry consolidates, with the merger of number-two Citrosuco and number-three Citrovita.

After the combination, the company would be the largest juice processor, controlling 25 per cent of supplies and displacing Cutrale to second position.

Louis Dreyfus, the French trading house, would be the third largest processor.

 

Economic Outlook: Central banks in spotlight

By Jack Farchy

Published: June 6 2010 20:23 | Last updated: June 6 2010 20:23

Monetary policy will be in the spotlight this week, as central bankers in Europe and emerging economies face up to starkly different problems.

In Europe, where the European Central Bank as well as the Bank of England hold rate-setting meetings on Thursday, the focus is likely to be on the debt crisis causing turmoil in markets.

But emerging economies such as China and Brazil are struggling with inflationary pressures. In the case of China in particular, markets will be watching for any sign of overheating, indicating that a more aggressive policy crackdown may be in store.

The world's fastest-growing large economy is due to release a slew of data this week. Figures on industrial production, fixed-asset investment and money supply for May will give an indication of whether the cooling measures the Chinese government has taken are having an effect. All three indicators are forecast to dip slightly from April.

"The ongoing unwinding of the stimulus package and the capacity reduction on energy-intensive sectors implies a likely moderation in investment," said economists at HSBC.

But they added that they did not expect a significant slowdown.

Chinese consumer price inflation is expected to continue to rise, hitting the government's target 3 per cent level for May from 2.8 per cent in April. That is likely to raise fears in the market of further tightening measures.

"Inflation is set to rise further in the coming months, outweighing growth risks as the top concern," HSBC said.

The UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation said last week that it expected the global cost of food imports to rise 11.5 per cent this year, driven by rising costs of high-value foods such as meat and dairy products, which Chinese consumers are eating in greater quantities. Chinese food inflation was at 5.9 per cent in April.

The Brazilian central bank, also facing rising inflation, is expected to hike the benchmark Selic rate by 75 basis points to 10.25 per cent this week.

Meanwhile, the ECB and the Bank are expected to keep rates on hold at 1 per cent and 0.5 per cent respectively, and analysts expect little move on rates for some time.

That is in spite of some positive economic data: April industrial production for Germany, released tomorrow, is expected to have risen 0.6 per cent from a month earlier, while orders are also expected to remain strong.

In the US, data on the strength of the consumer recovery is expected to be strong – although, after the non-farm payrolls report disappointed expectations last week, some of those predictions may be less confident.

A 0.2 per cent month-on-month rise is forecast for retail sales, while the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index is expected to rise to 75.0 in June from 73.6 in May.

 

Sugar volatility

By Sophia Grene

Published: June 6 2010 08:33 | Last updated: June 6 2010 08:33

A good example of the vagaries of the soft commodities market is the recent history of sugar prices.

Global sugar prices hit a three-decade high earlier this year, only to fall back by nearly 50 per cent (to a one-year low) when news broke that the Indian sugar harvest would beat expectations.

India's output swings move the country from exporter to importer. As the largest consumer of sugar and second largest producer (after Brazil), the presence of Indian demand or supply in the global market is a significant driver of the price.

India is a very opaque place, says Tobin Gorey, a commodities analyst at JPMorgan. This means harvest expectations, based on reports of what has been planted and what weather is forecast, can be badly out of line with reality.

This year, for example, the January/February crop was forecast to be around 4.5m tonnes, some 8m short of expected consumption. Instead it was 8.5m, leaving a much smaller shortfall to be made up.

"At the start of the year, the forecast was for sugar to be at one of the tightest levels for 50 years, so the price went a fair way," says Mr Gorey.

"With February expectations, you were looking at two years to recover to balance inventories. Now you can get most of the task done in the first year."

Exaggerating the wild swings in prices was the presence of a large number of buyers, who may have driven the price higher than the fundamentals called for, and then pushed it sharply lower as they scrambled to get out of a trade they no longer liked.

The International Sugar Organisation said last month that, after a deficit of about 8.5m tonnes in 2009-10, the global market could swing to a surplus of 2.5m in 2010-11, which would be likely to drive prices lower.

 

Clinton seeks better LatAm ties despite friction

By Lachlan Carmichael (AFP) – 1 day ago

WASHINGTON — US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was set to leave Sunday on a tour for stronger security and trade ties with Latin America despite US friction with powerful Brazil over Cuba, Honduras and Iran.

The chief US diplomat will first hold a full day of talks in Lima on Monday with officials of the 33 active members of the Organization of American States (OAS) before traveling on to Ecuador, Colombia and Barbados.

It was not clear whether rows or differences between Washington and Brasilia, the Western hemisphere's main powers, would stay under the surface or burst into the open and hurt the overall OAS meeting.

With security the main theme this year, the OAS General Assembly's agenda lists plans to tackle regional arms sales, crime and Argentina's claim of sovereignty over Britain's Falkland Islands.

Clinton's top diplomat for the region, Arturo Valenzuela, said the United States does not support the Argentine claim. "Our position has always been that this is a matter for both countries to address," he told reporters Friday.

Peruvian President Alan Garcia seeks to limit arms sales and avert an arms race amid what analyst Michael Shifter says is his concern over purchases by Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Venezuela.

But Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington, told AFP he doubts the proposal will go far amid lack of interest from Brazil and the United States as well as other countries.

Valenzuela, the US assistant secretary of state for the Western Hemisphere, dismissed fears of an arms race. "There has actually been a significant decline in expenditures on armaments in most countries of the region," he said.

Though it may not be on the agenda, there may be debate over US-backed efforts to readmit Honduras to the OAS following its suspension in June last year over the coup that toppled president Manuel Zelaya.

OAS Secretary General Jose Miguel Insulza said Honduras will come up in a free session on Monday but a Peruvian government source said some states prefer to avoid such debate for fear it could degenerate into an ideological row.

For many Latin American countries, Honduras cannot return to the OAS unless Zelaya is allowed to return peacefully from exile, according to Insulza.

Shifter said there remained a "sharp difference" over readmitting Honduras to the OAS between the United States and Brazil, which sheltered Zelaya in its embassy in Tegucigalpa during a long stand-off following the coup.

Analyst Christopher Sabatini, an executive at the New York-based Americas Society and Council of the Americas, told AFP it might be possible for the OAS to reach a consensus on a "process" for readmitting Honduras.

A similar compromise was tailored for Cuba to save last year's OAS assembly when a dispute emerged with the United States opposing efforts by Venezuela, Brazil and others to readmit Havana to the pan-Arab grouping.

Apart from US-Brazilian differences over Honduras, those over Iran and Cuba can also bubble to the surface, Shifter said.

US officials declined to say whether Clinton would meet on the margins of the OAS with Celso Amorim, the Brazilian foreign minister, as Washington pushes next week for a UN Security Council vote on new sanctions against Iran.

Brazil, a non-permanent council member, has opposed sanctions while pushing a deal opposed by Washington to ship low-grade nuclear fuel to Turkey so that it can be further enriched and returned to Iran for medical purposes.

Shifter said Cuba could come up again as many Latin American countries feel little has been done in the last year to readmit Cuba.

On Tuesday, Clinton will fly to Quito for talks with Ecuador's leftist President Rafael Correa and for a speech laying out the broad outlines of President Barack Obama's policies toward Latin America.

"The idea now is to set forth a more cooperative agenda," Sabatini said of the speech.

"This administration wants to feel it is leaving a mark on Latin American policy," he said, noting it has suffered a number of "fits and starts" in improving ties with a region that has long distrusted the United States.

Clinton will visit Colombia on Wednesday and Barbados on Thursday before returning to Washington. She has made around half a dozen tours of Latin American countries since she became secretary of state.

 

Crowded agenda awaits Clinton in Latin America

By MATTHEW LEE (AP) – 1 day ago

WASHINGTON — Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton travels to Latin America and the Caribbean with a crowded agenda awaiting: lingering tensions over last year's coup in Honduras, U.S. immigration policy, security issues and concerns over Iran and the Middle East.

Clinton was to depart Sunday on her seventh trip to the region as the top U.S. diplomat, with a schedule that included an Organization of American States meeting in Peru as well as later stops in Ecuador, Colombia and Barbados.

At all points, officials say, she will stress the Obama administration's commitment to the Western Hemisphere and support for democracy.

The most contentious topic facing the OAS — whether to readmit Honduras to the regional bloc — isn't on the agenda at Monday's annual OAS General Assembly in Lima. But it will loom large over the discussions, with the U.S. at odds with numerous other member countries on the matter.

The U.S. wants Honduras allowed back into the organization following elections that brought the current president, Porfirio Lobo, to power after the June 2009 coup that ousted his predecessor, Manuel Zelaya. Other governments, notably Brazil, Venezuela and Nicaragua, are opposed and insist that Zelaya be allowed to return home first.

"There still are some countries that believe that Honduras should take additional steps, which is a position that's different from that of the United States," said Arturo Valenzuela, the assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs.

"We believe that, in fact, Honduras has taken important steps to overcome the crisis," he told reporters Friday. "Although, we are also mindful of the fact that there are continuing concerns over human rights violations in Honduras and that certain steps still need to be taken in order to bring about a process of national reconciliation."

Also of great concern in Latin America is Arizona's new immigration law, which some believe will lead to racial profiling. While this, too, is not on the formal agenda, Clinton probably will get an earful about it from her colleagues even though President Barack Obama has said the law is "poorly conceived" and "not the right way to go."

The law requires that police conducting traffic stops or questioning people about possible legal violations ask them about their immigration status if there is "reasonable suspicion" that they're in the United States illegally. Reasonable suspicion is not defined.

The law, which takes effect July 29 unless blocked by a court as requested under pending legal challenges, also makes it a state crime to be in the U.S. illegally or to impede traffic while hiring day laborers, regardless of the worker's immigration status. It would become a crime for illegal immigrants to solicit work.

OAS Secretary-General Jose Miguel Insulza has called the law "an issue of concern to all citizens of the Americas, beginning with the citizens of the United States." Other nations have complained loudly about it.

In separate talks on the sidelines of the Lima meeting, Clinton is expected to press for support for new U.N. penalties against Iran over its nuclear program. Brazil recently worked with Turkey to broker an agreement with Iran that would avert fresh penalties.

Brazil, which opposes U.N. penalties against Iran, is an elected member of the U.N. Security Council, where the U.S. hopes to bring a fourth sanctions resolution to a vote in the coming days.

From Peru, Clinton travels to Ecuador for talks with President Rafael Correa and to deliver a speech outlining the administration's broad policy toward the region, which has a heavy emphasis on fighting the narcotics trade.

In Colombia, a major ally that had been the recipient of massive U.S. aid to combat drug trafficking, she will see the departing president, Alvaro Uribe.

She plans to meet with the two candidates to succeed Uribe: former defense minister Juan Manuel Santos, who helped craft the current president's popular security policies, and rival Antanas Mockus, the ex-two-time mayor of Bogota who has promised clean government and a tax increase. The candidates are in a June 20 runoff election.

Clinton will close out the trip in Bridgetown, Barbados, where she will see foreign ministers from Caribbean island nations to discuss endemic crime, violence and narco-trafficking.

 

Ministros de Argentina y Brasil discutirán en Buenos Aires temas comerciales

(AFP) – hace 16 horas

BUENOS AIRES — Los ministros de Economía y de Industria de Argentina, Amado Boudou y Débora Giorgi, se reunirán esta semana en Buenos Aires con sus pares de Brasil, Guido Mantega y Miguel Jorge (Desarrollo) para discutir medidas para ampliar el comercio, informó el domingo el gobierno argentino.

"Nuestro objetivo es trabajar en medidas que nos permitan reequilibrar el desarrollo industrial de ambos países y equiparar la balanza comercial, que por ahora resulta desfavorable para Argentina", dijo Giorgi en un comunicado. La reunión fue acordada durante el encuentro que mantuvieron en Rio de Janeiro, la presidenta argentina, Cristina Kirchner y su par de Brasil, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

El encuentro se produce tras la advertencia de Brasil de imponer represalias de reciprocidad si Argentina restringe la importación de alimentos desde el vecino país, medida que según informaciones de prensa, Argentina tendría bajo estudio.

"En este contexto de déficit parece increíble que sigamos escuchando algunas voces relacionadas con la importación, que agitan fantasmas en la relación comercial, que si bien es profunda también debe recorrer el camino de la equiparación del desequilibrio comercial", dijo la ministra argentina.

En su visita a Rio, Kirchner remarcó que "no habrá restricciones y sí una produndización de las relaciones comerciales, un aumento del intercambio" con Brasil. En 2009, el intercambio comercial entre Brasil y Argentina fue de 24.066 millones de dólares, sensiblemente menor que en 2008 cuando se elevó a 30.864 millones.

La agenda de la reunión ministerial abordará la profundización del sistema de pago en monedas locales, la integración de cadenas productivas, el financiamiento de las exportaciones con fondos del Banco Nacional de Desarrollo de Brasil (BNDES) y eliminación de las barreras de acceso al mercado brasileño.

 

Argentina y Brasil buscarán "equilibrar" la relación

Lunes 7 de junio de 2010 | 10:00 hs

Los ministros de Economía, Amado Boudou, y de Industria, Débora Giorgi, se reunirán esta semana en Buenos Aires con sus pares brasileños de Hacienda, Guido Mantega, y de Desarrollo, Miguel Jorge, para trabajar en el desarrollo de herramientas que permitan equilibrar la balanza comercial entre ambos países.

Fuentes de la cartera de Industria comentaron que aún no se fijó el día de la reunión porque "estamos esperando el regreso del ministro Boudou de Corea del Sur para ajustar las agendas con los funcionarios brasileños".

La reunión surgió del encuentro que mantuvieron a fines del mes pasado en Río de Janeiro los presidentes de la Argentina, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, y de Brasil, Luiz Inacio Da Silva, en el marco de los reclamos de industriales brasileños por la eventual aplicación de restricciones a las importaciones de alimentos provenientes del vecino país.

En esa oportunidad, la mandataria aseveró que "no hubo ni habrá restricciones a las importaciones" que vienen de Brasil.

Giorgi explicó a través de un comunicado que en la agenda de trabajo se encuentra la necesidad de profundizar el sistema de pago en moneda local, la integración de cadenas productivas, el financiamiento de las exportaciones con fondos del Banco Nacional de Desarrollo de Brasil (Bndes) y eliminación de las barreras de acceso al mercado brasileño. Agencia DyN

 

CFK agreed to set up meeting with Lula da Silva
Giorgi, Boudou to meet with Brazilian ministers, discuss commerce

Monday, June 07, 2010 | 09:59 ET

Argentina's Economy and Production Ministers, Amado Boudou and Débora Giorgi, will meet this week in Buenos Aires with their Brazilian counterparts, Guido Mantega and Miguel Jorge to discuss measures to widen commercial opportunities, according to the Argentine government.

"Our goal is to work on measures that will allow us to balance out industrial development from both countries and help the commercial balance which is, at the moment, unfavorable for Argentina," said Giorgi through a press release.

The meeting was set during a previous meeting between President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

 

Brasil

Lunes 7 de junio de 2010

Los ministros de Industria, Débora Giorgi, y Economía, Amado Boudou, se reunirán a mediados de semana con sus pares de Brasil, Miguel Jorge y Guido Mantega, para buscar medidas que tiendan a equilibrar la balanza comercial entre ambos países, con las trabas informales a las importaciones dispuestas por Argentina semanas atrás como telón de fondo. Giorgi afirmó que, entre otros temas, Argentina pedirá trabajar sobre la eliminación de barreras para ingresar al mercado brasileño.

 

 

Las elecciones presidenciales en Brasil debilitarían aún más al real, hasta tocar las 2 unidades por dólar

BLOOMBERG San Pablo ()

Lunes 7 de junio de 2010

Las turbulencias financieras del último mes han hecho del real brasileño la moneda de peor desempeño en América Latina con perspectivas de extenderse, según apuntaron Bank of America y Barclays. Para estas entidades financieras, además, las inversiones disminuirán antes de las elecciones presidenciales que se llevarán a cabo en octubre para reemplazar a Luis Ignacio Lula da Silva.

Los dos bancos redujeron sus pronósticos del tercer trimestre sobre el real más de un 2,5% en las últimas cinco semanas, lo que bajó a su vez la previsión consensuada para fin de año en un sondeo de Bloomberg un 1,1% a 1,77 por dólar. Las reducciones contrastan con el aumento de los pronósticos del peso mexicano y el peso argentino.

"Mientras el real bajó un 5% el mes pasado según la crisis de la deuda de Europa socavaba la demanda de activos de mayor rendimiento de los mercados emergentes, los descensos de aquí en adelante dependerán de las declaraciones de los candidatos en sus campañas para la elección de octubre", arriesgó Roberto Melzi, estratega de mercados latinoamericanos en Barclays. "Habrá un poco de ruido sobre lo que los candidatos hacen, no hacen, a quién nombran", adelantó Melzi en una entrevista telefónica el 2 de junio desde Nueva York. "Puede haber incertidumbre, volatilidad y cierta presión depreciatoria durante la campaña", agregó.

Barclays, en tamaño el tercer operador de divisas del mundo según Euromoney Institutional Investor, bajó su pronóstico de septiembre el mes pasado a 2 reales por dólar desde la previsión previa de 1,95. Bank of America, con oficinas centrales en Charlotte, Carolina del Norte, redujo su pronóstico del tercer trimestre a fines de abril un 9,5% a 1,9 reales por dólar.

 

Brasil pondrá freno a la suba del gasto público

Lunes 7 de junio de 2010

Brasil planea limitar los salarios de funcionarios públicos y los gastos estatales para contener el aumento del presupuesto federal, dijo el secretario del Tesoro Arno Augustin, en una entrevista publicada ayer por el diario O Estado de S. Paulo.

El gobierno no ve necesidad de más aumentos a salarios de trabajadores públicos tras haber subido recientemente algunos sueldos y vetará "cualquier exceso" aprobado por el Congreso que pudiera crear riesgos a la política fiscal de Brasil, sostuvo Augustin.

El funcionario indicó que una propuesta en el Congreso para aumentar los salarios de bomberos y oficiales de la policía es particularmente preocupante y un enorme problema que podría llevar a la quiebra a algunos estados y municipalidades.

Pese a incertidumbres del mercado sobre la postura de Brasil para controlar costos, Augustin dijo que el gobierno cumplirá su meta del 2010 para el superávit primario del presupuesto - que excluye pagos de deudas - del 3,3% del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB).

El gobierno podría también aumentar el tamaño de su fondo de riqueza soberano para absorber fondos públicos en un intento por desacelerar el crecimiento de la economía, aunque todavía no se ha tomado ninguna decisión sobre el tema, agregó.

El ministro de Finanzas brasileño, Guido Mantega, develó el mes pasado recortes de gastos de 10.000 millones de reales (u$s 5.400 millones) para el presupuesto 2010, además de 21.500 millones de reales rebajados del presupuesto en marzo, a fin de enfriar la expansión que ha avivado la inflación.

 

DICEN QUE LAS FRECUENCIAS AL EXTERIOR AUMENTA SUS PÉRDIDAS
Crece la pelea entre Aerolíneas, LAN y las líneas brasileñas por vuelos internacionales
A comienzos de año, la compañía administrada por el Estado incrementó la oferta de tramos internacionales largos y regionales, que tienen precios desregulados

EL CRONISTA Buenos Aires ()

Aerolíneas Argentinas y Austral, que juntas dominan el mercado de cabotaje argentino, se propusieron este año competir fuerte en el mercado internacional, donde las tarifas son libres y cobra mayor importancia el segmento de pasajeros de las clases premium, que buscan la comodidad que compensa los efectos de los trayectos largos. Austral mantuvo su histórico enfoque en los vuelos internos, mientras que Aerolíneas anunció en febrero un incremento del 75% en las frecuencias semanales de los viajes regionales (hasta 161) y un 11% a los internacionales de tramos extensos, incluyendo un aumento del 75% en las frecuencias a Miami (64% más de asientos).

La competencia con las compañías aéreas internacionales recrudeció no sólo por la ampliación de su oferta, sino también porque comenzó a utilizar Aeroparque para los vuelos regionales (a Brasil, Paraguay y Chile), algo que inmediatamente pidieron también la filial de la chilena LAN y las brasileñas GOL y TAM. Operar en Aeroparque implica que los pasajeros reduzcan de cuatro a una hora y media los lapsos de conexión cuando vienen del interior.

La respuesta desde el mercado de aerolíneas internacionales no se hizo esperar y comenzó a circular en ellas un informe según el cual el 70% de las pérdidas de Aerolíneas Argentinas se genera en sus rutas al exterior. De acuerdo con el trabajo, en 2009 Aerolíneas facturó u$s 386 millones por vuelos internacionales y sus costos operativos en ese mismo segmento ascendieron a u$s 623 millones, lo cual se tradujo en una pérdida en su resultado operativo de u$s 237 millones. Los gastos de estructura producidos por atender ese mercado serían de u$s 88 millones y las pérdidas totales, por lo tanto de u$s 325 millones, es decir, el 70% del rojo.

En cambio –de acuerdo con el informe– las ventas por pasajes de tramos domésticos ascendieron a u$s 409 millones y sus costos operativos fueron de u$s 483, es decir, la pérdida se limitó a u$s 74 millones. Los gastos de estructura, en este caso, serían de u$s 68 millones y las pérdidas totales, de u$s 142 millones (el 30% del déficit).

"Los resultados oficiales del primer bimestre de 2010 muestran pérdidas 32% superiores a las del primer bimestre de 2009", concluye. "La pérdida operativa del negocio internacional implica una subvención de u$s 268 por pasajero", añadió.

El relevamiento incluye como crítica que sólo el 5% de la oferta de Aerolíneas –medida en "asientos-kilómetros disponibles"– es en destinos sociales, mientras que el 38% es en internacional de larga distancia, donde hay competidoras que pueden brindar el servicio. Otro 18% es en plazas sudamericanas, donde, se afirma, también hay otras firmas que pueden hacer esos vuelos y el 39% restante en el doméstico.

 

Au Brésil, le secteur financier connaît un formidable essor

07/06/2010

par Virginie Mairet, à Rio de Janeiro

Peu touché par la crise financière de ces dernières années, le secteur bancaire brésilien surfe sur la vague des crédits aux particuliers, après une série de rapprochements et de développements à l'étranger.

Lorsque, en 2002, quelques semaines avant l'élection présidentielle, Goldman Sachs invente le «Lulometro», chargé de mesurer le risque qu'impliquerait pour les marchés l'élection de Luiz Iñacio Lula da Silva, la banque d'investissement est loin d'imaginer que, huit ans plus tard, les banques brésiliennes seraient les premières gagnantes des deux mandats de l'ex-ouvrier métallurgiste. Au sein des Amériques, le Brésil est désormais le seul pays à concurrencer les Etats-Unis. En 2009, la banque latino-américaine la mieux placée était le Banco do Brasil (BB), une institution publique, au septième rang, avec 407 milliards de dollars d'actifs, devançant Itau-Unibanco (349 milliards), qui vient de rentrer dans le Top 10 mondial des capitalisations boursières des banques.

En revanche, côté rentabilité, les Brésiliens détrônent désormais leurs voisins du nord : selon Economatica, un groupe de conseil financier de São Paulo, en 2009 le retour sur fonds propres (ROE) du BB était de 34,74 %, le plus élevé des Amériques, suivi par Itau-Unibanco (24,19 %) et Bradesco (23,82 %). Le premier groupe américain, Goldman Sachs, n'arrive qu'en quatrième position, avec un ROE de 19,82 %.

« C'est d'abord le différentiel de taux d'intérêt qui est à l'origine de cette forte rentabilité », explique Einar Rivero, analyste d'Economatica. Lula a repris à son compte l'orthodoxie monétaire de ses prédécesseurs, en augmentant le taux de base de la Banque Centrale (Selic), par crainte de l'inflation. Même en 2009, quand la politique monétaire s'est faite plus accommodante, pour éviter la récession, le taux réel atteignait encore 5 % - il était nul aux Etats-Unis.

Au contraire de ce qui s'est passé aux Etats-Unis et en Europe, le secteur bancaire a relativement peu souffert de la crise, du fait d'une réglementation plus restrictive, interdisant l'acquisition d'actifs douteux. En novembre 2008, Itau et Unibanco ont fusionné pour créer le premier groupe bancaire d'Amérique latine. Dans la foulée, BB a racheté d'autres institutions régionales, comme Banco do Estado de Santa Catarina (Besc), récupérant ainsi sa position de leader.

Les étrangers à l'affût

L'autre action cruciale du gouvernement pendant la crise a été d'engager les organismes publics (BB, Caixa Economica et la banque d'investissement BNDES) à une politique agressive de crédit aux entreprises et aux particuliers. Avec le retour de la croissance ? 7 % prévus cette année ?, c'est au tour du privé de surenchérir, pour rattraper le terrain perdu.

Enfin, le Brésil assiste à un mouvement de bancarisation accélérée, incluant les familles modestes et les villes de l'intérieur. Bradesco a ainsi annoncé en novembre être présente sous forme d'agences ou de correspondants bancaires dans 100 % des 5.560 municipalités brésiliennes. Dernière tendance : les groupes brésiliens se tournent vers l'étranger. C'est le cas d'Itau-Unibanco, déjà installé en Argentine, au Chili et en Uruguay.

 
 

à l'inverse, les groupes étrangers aimeraient leur part du gâteau brésilien. L'espagnole Santander, installée depuis 13 ans dans le pays, est devenue, à force d'acquisitions, la quatrième banque locale. En septembre dernier, elle a levé 14,1 milliards de reais lors de son entrée en Bourse, la plus importante de l'histoire du marché de São Paulo.

 « Pour de nouveaux venus, c'est un marché difficile à pénétrer, du fait de la réglementation, et la forte concentration », prévient Einar Rivero. La Santander compte profiter de l'opportunité pour se renforcer au Brésil. Son président mondial, Emílio Botín a déjà annoncé que la filiale brésilienne dépasserait la maison mère dans un futur très prochain. n

 

Le G20 plaide pour la rigueur en zone euro

07/06/2010

SÉBASTIEN FALLETTI ENVOYÉ SPÉCIAL À BUSAN

Les pays émergents se rangent dans le camp de la rigueur, majoritaire au sein du G20. La pression monte sur les Européens, priés d'intensifier leurs efforts de réduction des déficits.

FINANCES PUBLIQUES Purger l'économie européenne sans briser la reprise mondiale. C'est la délicate équation que tente de résoudre ce week-end le G20, à Busan, le grand port sud-coréen. Les ministres des Finances des vingt plus grandes économies du monde ont donné la clé de l'énigme hier soir, lors de leur première réunion depuis le plan de sauvetage de 750 milliards d'euros déclenché par l'Europe le 9 mai.

JO YONG-HAK/REUTERS Guido Mantega (ministre des Finances du Brésil), Kevin Warsh (gouverneur de la Réserve fédéral des États-Unis), Timothy Geithner (secrétaire au Trésor américain), Elena Salgado (ministre de l'Économie de l'Espagne), Kim Choong-soo (gouverneur de Bank of Korea), Yoon Jeung-hyun (ministre des Finances de la Corée du Sud) et Christine Lagarde, hier, à Busan (Corée du Sud).

Pour eux, l'assainissement des finances publiques dans la zone euro passe avant la stimulation de la croissance. « Il y a un courant majoritaire qui veut faire de la consolidation budgétaire la priorité numéro un », reconnaissait hier Christine Lagarde, ministre de l'Économie, à l'issue du dîner à huis clos des grands argentiers de la planète.

Un appel à la rigueur qui a mis sous pression les Européens, priés d'intensifier leurs efforts pour remettre leurs comptes en ordre. Et qui ont reçu la leçon des pays émergents, en particulier asiatiques, comme la Corée du Sud, qui ont assaini drastiquement leurs finances publiques à l'issue de la crise de 1997, pour mieux redécoller ensuite. À l'heure où leurs économies repartent sur les chapeaux de roues après la crise de Wall Street en 2008, ces nouvelles puissances ne veulent pas payer une seconde fois pour les errements de la zone euro. « Nous devons favoriser la reprise économique, mais, dans le même temps, nous ne pouvons renoncer à la prudence en matière budgétaire », a prévenu le ministre indien, Pranab Mukherjee.

 Une piqûre de rappel

Cet appel à la discipline donne des ailes à l'Allemagne dans son combat pour imposer l'austérité dans la zone euro face aux velléités de la France et des pays méditerranéens.

En route pour le pays du MatinCalme, le ministre allemand, Wolfgang Schäuble, n'a pas manqué de renouveler la pression sur ses partenaires européens en rappelant que « les marchés avaient toujours des doutes quant à savoir si les accords négociés seraient réellement appliqués ». Une piqûre de rappel qui venait à point nommé, alors que le commissaire Olli Rehn et le président de la BCE, JeanClaude Trichet, ont dû se fendre d'un exposé détaillé à Busan pour convaincre leurs homologues du G20 de la crédibilité du plan de sauvetage européen de 750 milliards d'euros. Berlin a reçu l'appui du nouveau chancelier de l'Échiquier britannique, George Osborne, qui a appelé les membres de l'eurozone à faire le ménage dans leurs comptes.

Mais, pour sa première sortie internationale, le nouveau chancelier a également rappelé l'importance de soutenir la fragile croissance mondiale pour éviter une rechute. Un appel qui a fait écho au secrétaire d'État américain, Timothy Geithner, qui a plaidé pour des mesures de consolidation budgétaire « compatibles » avec la croissance, prenant ses distances avec le refrain de la rigueur. Une perche saisie par Christine Lagarde, qui a souligné la nécessité de « ne pas étrangler la croissance » , alors que Paris cherche à Washington un allié pour contenir la pression de Berlin.

En attendant le sommet de Toronto fin juin, le camp de la rigueur apparaît nettement majoritaire au sein du G20 comme de l'Eurogroupe, alors que la taxe bancaire défendue par Européens et Américains suscite l'opposition des émergents, du Canada et de l'Australie.

 

Brésiliens, Mexicains ou Russes achètent des châteaux
La plupart des étrangers sont respectueux des biens acquis en France

07/06/2010

On leur prête des acquisitions coûteuses et des restaurations parfois excentriques. Mais difficile, de nos jours, de savoir avec précision ce que représente la part des investisseurs étrangers s'offrant des châteaux en France. Ce qui est certain, c'est que leur achat ne passe pas inaperçu, s'accompagnant parfois d'anecdotes et de mini-scandales.

Ainsi, tout récemment, l'acquisition à Paris de l'hôtel Lambert par le frère de l'émir du Qatar a fait couler de l'encre. Un parking sous la cour de ce monument classé avait suscité un tollé avant que le projet soit abandonné. Récemment, dans le nord du pays, un riche propriétaire russe qui a fait l'acquisition d'un château aurait fermé la porte au nez d'un architecte des Bâtiments de France venu vérifier que les travaux avaient été réalisés dans les règles de l'art. Peu regardants sur les dépenses, certains n'hésiteraient pas à assouvir quelques caprices, quitte à écorner le patrimoine.

Mais, pour tous les professionnels de la vente, ces quelques dérapages ne font pas loi. La plupart des étrangers sont respectueux des biens acquis. «Ce sont des achats coup de cœur, et les restaurations sont très bien réalisées», indique-t-on chez Mercure, où l'on estime à 20 % la clientèle étrangère. Un pourcentage qui, il y a trois ans, atteignait les 30, voire 40 %, avant que la crise n'ébranle ce marché. Ce dernier reprend aujourd'hui timidement. «Les Anglais reviennent un peu, mais avec des budgets divisés par deux par rapport à 2007», indique Anne de La Sauzay, directrice du groupe immobilier international Mercure, où l'on voit arriver une nouvelle clientèle exotique : des Chinois ou encore des Brésiliens.

Prix moyen de 700 000 euros 

«On vend à nouveau mieux : 50 châteaux par an au lieu de 25 environ. Mais les transactions se font à des prix inférieurs. De l'ordre de 700 000 euros en moyenne au lieu de 1,5 million d'euros», explique Bertrand Le Nail, gérant associé du cabinet Le Nail, spécialisé dans la vente de châteaux, et qui constate un taux de rotation important. «Les domaines changent de main plus rapidement», confirme Stéphane Salin chez Barnes. Un phénomène qui touche autant les étrangers que les Français et qui est le signe parfois que la vie de château est plus compliquée qu'on ne le croit. «C'est un lourd vaisseau coûteux», selon Bertrand Le Nail, qui redoute les conséquences d'une récente disposition.

Depuis 2009, pour bénéficier d'un régime fiscal avantageux, obligation est faite pour le propriétaire de conserver le bien immobilier durant 15 ans. «Si on s'en sépare avant, il faut rembourser l'économie fiscale réalisée. Comment peut-on aujourd'hui s'engager sur une si longue période ? À 80 %, les détenteurs de châteaux sont des héritiers, et la majorité rencontre actuellement de vraies difficultés économiques», souligne Bertrand Le Nail. Cette mesure va-t-elle dissuader les Français d'acheter des châteaux ? Si c'est le cas, les acquéreurs étrangers n'en auront que plus de choix.

 

La taxe bancaire mondiale - une nouvelle fois recalée

Les ministres des Finances du G20, qui se sont réunis pendant deux jours à Pusan, en Corée du Sud,

07/06/2010

MICHEL DE GRANDI

au début du week-end, ne sont pas parvenus à s'entendre sur la mise en place d'une taxe qui serait prélevée sur le système bancaire pour couvrir les coûts d'un éventuel défaut de paiement d'un établissement.

DE NOTRE CORRESPONDANTA TOKYO.

Le Canada soutenu par le Japon, l'Australie et les principaux pays émergents comme le Brésil et l'Inde ont marqué un point : la réunion des ministres des Finances du G20, vendredi et samedi à Pusan, en Corée du Sud, n'est pas parvenue à imposer une taxe mondiale bancaire. Au motif que leurs banques n'ont pas eu besoin de fonds publics pendant la crise déclenchée sur le marché des « subprimes » en 2007, ces pays ont empêché un consensus de poindre. Le débat n'est pas clos pour autant. La ministre de l'Economie française, Christine Lagarde, a concédé que« tout le monde ne sera pas au rendez-vous de la taxe bancaire ». Mais« de nombreux pays sont d'accord pour examiner le principe de taxation, qui devrait être accepté à la prochaine réunion »à Toronto, selon elle. Le communiqué final des ministres du G20 reconnaît que le secteur financier« devrait contribuer de manière équitable et substantielle »à toute crise à venir nécessitant une intervention de la puissance publique. A cette fin,« reconnaissant qu'il existe diverses approches possibles », les ministres se sont entendus pour« mettre en place des principes afin de protéger les contribuables, réduire les risques du système financier, protéger les flux de crédit ».

Un rapport du FMI fin juin

Dans ce cadre, le Fonds monétaire international est chargé de rendre, lors du sommet des chefs d'Etat des 26 et 27 juin à Toronto, un rapport final sur ce sujet. En avril, le FMI avait proposé l'instauration d'une taxe, assise soit sur les actifs des établissements, soit sur les revenus de leurs activités financières. A ce stade, les experts du fonds privilégieraient la première approche. Les établissements financiers devraient s'acquitter d'une taxe similaire à une« prime d'assurance »sur les actifs risqués pour couvrir les coûts d'un éventuel défaut de paiement. Pour le FMI, cette taxe devrait être perçue avant qu'une autre crise financière ne voie le jour. Le fonds ne tranche pas sur la destination du produit de la taxe, à savoir son intégration au budget des Etats ou son versement à un fonds dédié. Les arguments du FMI n'ont pas porté auprès des pays qui n'ont pas connu de crise bancaire. Pas mécontent qu'une partie du G20« ne soutienne pas le concept d'une taxe universelle », Jim Flaherty, le ministre canadien des Finances, a regretté que ce débat« nous ait distraits des problèmes de fond ». Soucieuse de ne pas refermer définitivement la porte, Christine Lagarde a admis que« si certains jugent que ce n'est pas nécessaire car il n'y a pas de risque systémique, on verra en temps voulu ».C'est aussi le discours tenu par le FMI, pour qui le besoin d'un tel mécanisme peut aussi être ressenti à l'avenir par les pays qui jusque-là n'en ont pas eu besoin.« Même si de bonnes réglementations ont été adoptées, on peut s'attendre à de nouvelles défaillances d'institutions. Tout comme l'existence d'un code de la route et de mécanismes pour le faire respecter n'a jamais empêché que des accidents puissent se produire », a expliqué un responsable du fonds.

Bâle 3 : le calendrier est confirmé  

Redéfinition.  Le calendrier de la réforme du Comité de Bâle sur les exigences en matière de fonds propres et de liquidité est maintenu. A Pusan, les ministres des Finances et les gouverneurs des banques centrales ont confirmé que la réforme menée par les 27 régulateurs bancaires du Comité de Bâle sera présentée en novembre, lors du G20 à Séoul, et mise en place avant la fin 2012. En dépit de l'opposition de certains, le Canada en particulier, de retarder le mouvement. La réforme concerne la redéfinition du cadre réglementaire du secteur bancaire pour aboutir aux accords de Bâle 3. « J'espère que nous resterons dans le calendrier. Il n'y a aucune raison de l'allonger »,a indiqué Christine Lagarde, tout en reconnaissant qu'il s'agit d'un dossier« extraordinairement technique ».Ce sont des matières« trop compliquées pour être bâclées », a-t-elle ajouté.

 

Petrobras découvre un nouveau gisement au large du Brésil

07/06/2010

La compagnie pétrolière brésilienne Petrobras a annoncé vendredi la découverte d'un nouveau gisement de pétrole estimé à 380 millions de barils, en eaux très profondes. Ce gisement est situé sur le champ de Marlim, à 170 km au large des côtes de l'Etat de Rio de Janeiro, à 4.460 mètres de profondeur. Actuellement, la production du géant latino-américain est de 2,5 millions de barils par jour, un niveau que la direction espère doubler d'ici à 2020 à la suite des importantes découvertes de ces dernières années. La compagnie détient des réserves estimées à 14 milliards de barils.

 

Brésiliens, Mexicains ou Russes achètent des châteaux
La plupart des étrangers sont respectueux des biens acquis en France

07/06/2010

On leur prête des acquisitions coûteuses et des restaurations parfois excentriques. Mais difficile, de nos jours, de savoir avec précision ce que représente la part des investisseurs étrangers s'offrant des châteaux en France. Ce qui est certain, c'est que leur achat ne passe pas inaperçu, s'accompagnant parfois d'anecdotes et de mini-scandales.

Ainsi, tout récemment, l'acquisition à Paris de l'hôtel Lambert par le frère de l'émir du Qatar a fait couler de l'encre. Un parking sous la cour de ce monument classé avait suscité un tollé avant que le projet soit abandonné. Récemment, dans le nord du pays, un riche propriétaire russe qui a fait l'acquisition d'un château aurait fermé la porte au nez d'un architecte des Bâtiments de France venu vérifier que les travaux avaient été réalisés dans les règles de l'art. Peu regardants sur les dépenses, certains n'hésiteraient pas à assouvir quelques caprices, quitte à écorner le patrimoine.

Mais, pour tous les professionnels de la vente, ces quelques dérapages ne font pas loi. La plupart des étrangers sont respectueux des biens acquis. «Ce sont des achats coup de cœur, et les restaurations sont très bien réalisées», indique-t-on chez Mercure, où l'on estime à 20 % la clientèle étrangère. Un pourcentage qui, il y a trois ans, atteignait les 30, voire 40 %, avant que la crise n'ébranle ce marché. Ce dernier reprend aujourd'hui timidement. «Les Anglais reviennent un peu, mais avec des budgets divisés par deux par rapport à 2007», indique Anne de La Sauzay, directrice du groupe immobilier international Mercure, où l'on voit arriver une nouvelle clientèle exotique : des Chinois ou encore des Brésiliens.

Prix moyen de 700 000 euros 

«On vend à nouveau mieux : 50 châteaux par an au lieu de 25 environ. Mais les transactions se font à des prix inférieurs. De l'ordre de 700 000 euros en moyenne au lieu de 1,5 million d'euros», explique Bertrand Le Nail, gérant associé du cabinet Le Nail, spécialisé dans la vente de châteaux, et qui constate un taux de rotation important. «Les domaines changent de main plus rapidement», confirme Stéphane Salin chez Barnes. Un phénomène qui touche autant les étrangers que les Français et qui est le signe parfois que la vie de château est plus compliquée qu'on ne le croit. «C'est un lourd vaisseau coûteux», selon Bertrand Le Nail, qui redoute les conséquences d'une récente disposition.

Depuis 2009, pour bénéficier d'un régime fiscal avantageux, obligation est faite pour le propriétaire de conserver le bien immobilier durant 15 ans. «Si on s'en sépare avant, il faut rembourser l'économie fiscale réalisée. Comment peut-on aujourd'hui s'engager sur une si longue période ? À 80 %, les détenteurs de châteaux sont des héritiers, et la majorité rencontre actuellement de vraies difficultés économiques», souligne Bertrand Le Nail. Cette mesure va-t-elle dissuader les Français d'acheter des châteaux ? Si c'est le cas, les acquéreurs étrangers n'en auront que plus de choix.

 

Le G20 se veut optimiste sur la croissance à venir

07/06/2010

M. DE G.

A défaut d'un accord sur la taxe bancaire, le G20 des ministres des Finances s'est montré plus optimiste sur la croissance et a insisté sur les besoins de politiques nationales différenciées, adaptées aux capacités de chacun.

 La récente crise de l'euro, alimentée en fin de semaine par les craintes pour l'économie hongroise, a modifié le calendrier des ministres des Finances et des gouverneurs des banques centrales du G20, réunis en Corée du Sud. Ils ont insisté sur la nécessaire remise en ordre des finances publiques et tenu à rassurer sur la croissance.« L'économie mondiale continue de croître plus vite que prévu », ont-ils précisé dans le communiqué final, tout en avertissant que cette reprise demeure fragile, inégale et mérite d'être consolidée.« La récente volatilité des marchés nous rappelle que des défis gigantesques demeurent », ont prévenu les grands argentiers à l'issue de deux jours de discussions. Sans désigner explicitement la zone euro, le G20 constate que les récentes crises budgétaires, qui ont secoué les marchés financiers, rendent nécessaires« la mise en place de mesures crédibles, favorables à la croissance, pour parvenir à des finances publiques viables ».A trois semaines de la réunion des chefs d'Etat et de gouvernement à Toronto, le G20 rappelle que« les pays en proie à de sérieuses difficultés budgétaires doivent accélérer le rythme de la consolidation ». Mais tout en s'engageant à assainir leurs finances publiques, les dirigeants insistent sur la nécessité de« sauvegarder la reprise économique ». Pris entre deux feux, celui de la rigueur budgétaire et celui du soutien à l'économie, ils font face au dilemme le plus difficile qu'ils auront à résoudre au cours des prochains  trimestres.

Discussions très animées

C'est pourquoi ils estiment que les remèdes proposés pour sortir de la crise ne doivent pas être les mêmes pour tous :« En fonction de leurs capacités, les pays accroîtront leurs sources de croissance intérieure, tout en préservant la stabilité macroéconomique. »Bien loin d'imposer une recette unique, le G20 préconise des mesures« différenciées et adaptées à chacune des circonstances nationales ».Avant l'ouverture du sommet, le secrétaire américain au Trésor, Tim Geithner, avait plaidé pour une stimulation globale de la demande intérieure et s'était étonné de sa faiblesse dans certains pays comme le Japon et l'Allemagne. En écho, Masaaki Shirakawa, le gouverneur de la Banque du Japon, s'est félicité d'une reprise plus forte que prévu dans l'Archipel et s'est dit confiant dans le redémarrage de la demande intérieure. Pour l'Allemagne, que le secrétaire américain qualifie« d'économie européenne excédentaire », c'est la chancelière Angela Merkel, qui, en marge d'une visite du président russe Dimitri Medvedev à Berlin, a rappelé son engagement à réduire ses déficits publics et à inscrire la première économie européenne dans une croissance durable. Comme chaque fois, Tim Geithner a pointé du doigt la Chine, qui doit, selon lui, aller vers un système de change plus flexible, élément clef d'une croissance mondiale plus homogène. Il a été rejoint sur ce point par le Fonds monétaire international (FMI).« Le FMI continue de penser que le renminbi est encore réellement sous-évalué. Même un réajustement de 20 à 25 % ne va pas réduire les déséquilibres. Il faut faire davantage », a déclaré Dominique Strauss-Kahn, son directeur général. Entre juillet 2005 et juillet 2008, la parité de la devise chinoise par rapport au dollar est passée de 8,28 à 6,83.Interrogé sur le climat des discussions durant ces deux jours, le vice-ministre coréen des Finances, Shin Je-yoon, a indiqué à  l'issue de la rencontre :« Les discussions ont été animées, très animées…

Clipping Internacional, 02 de junho de 2010

Brazil powers up

31 May 2010 | By Will Jackson

The suggestion that Brazil could be the world's fifth-biggest power by the next decade would have once sounded far-fetched, but the election of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva heralded a new era. But how well placed is Brazil to cope with the challenges ahead? Will Jackson reports.

Passengers travelling with TAM, a Brazilian airline, were last month posed a provocative question as they settled down and chewed their complimentary toffees. "Brazil will be the world's fifth-biggest power by the next decade," read an advert in Portuguese, attached to the headrest in front. "How will your company benefit from this fact?"

The suggestion that Brazil could be on the cusp of becoming a major economic force would have sounded far-fetched a decade ago. But the election of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva - or "Lula" for short - as the country's president in October 2002, heralded a new era of economic stability and wealth creation. Brazil's GDP grew 3%-6% each year between 2004 and 2008, while interest rates fell by over 10 percentage points.

Even the banking crisis which engulfed the developed world in the fourth quarter of 2008 failed to put a significant dent in Brazil's economic progress, and the country experienced a relatively mild contraction of 0.2% in 2009. Indeed, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a rebound to GDP growth of 5.5% this year.

This resilient growth, coupled with economic decline in the established world powers, has imbued Brazil with a growing self-confidence, and nowhere is this more apparent than in Lula's desire for political influence beyond the country's borders. The president joined forces with Turkey's prime minister in May, to negotiate a nuclear fuel swap with Iran - despite direct lobbying from America to support sanctions.

Commentators, including Kevin Casas-Zamora, a senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, a public policy organisation based in Washington DC, noted the significance of Lula's defiance. "A reformed Brazil has shed its subservient past," he wrote in April. "Instead of becoming a victim of globalisation, like many in the underdeveloped South, Brazil emerged a victor to claim a leading role in world affairs."

But despite Brazil's development, risks to future growth remain. A recent uptick in inflation and interest rates has led to fears that the country could overheat, as wages rise and the country's creaking infrastructure struggles to cope. Concerns also surround the potential impact of speculative inflows from overseas, and the country's growing dependence on exports to China. So how well placed is Brazil to cope with the challenges ahead? And what has made its economy so apparently sturdy? (article continues below)

It has not always been this way. Episodes of financial instability litter Brazil's past; from the oil shock of the late 1970s (which doubled the country's import bill and triggered inflation of 110% in 1980), to the debt default of 1983, to the knock-on effects of the Tequila, Asian and Russian crises in the mid- to late-1990s. Rapidly escalating interest rates were never far away towards the end of the twentieth century, and the country suffered annual inflation of 764% a year between 1990 and 1995.

As recently as 2002, investors were more preoccupied with the idea that Brazil might follow Argentina, Russia, and Ecuador in defaulting on its public debt, rather than its potential growth. During the summer and autumn of that year, spreads on Brazilian government bonds over American Treasuries ballooned out to 2,400 basis points. Brazil's currency, the real, fell sharply against the dollar, and inflationary pressures prompted the central bank to hike interest rates from 18% to 25%.

Indeed, the situation became so grave that the Brazilian authorities received approval for a $30 billion rescue package from the IMF in August 2002, despite their earlier assurances that assistance would not be needed.

Markets were spooked by concerns over debt sustainability, but also by the prospect of a win for one of the opposition candidates in the impending presidential election. Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Brazil's president since 1995, had overseen a raft of progressive policies designed to create a stable economic environment. These included abandoning the exchange rate peg, introducing the real (as finance minister in 1994), inflation targeting and the requirement to run a primary surplus - which allowed the government to begin reducing its dollar-denominated foreign debt.

Fears that Lula's background in the trade unions (he led a metalworkers union and was briefly imprisoned for a strike conducted in 1980) would be incompatible with Cardoso's business-friendly reforms faded after the October election, however. Statements on the budget and on debt, and the continuation of interest rate hikes, reassured markets that the new administration would continue Cardoso's conservative approach to the economy. Spreads on Brazil's external debt soon fell.

"Going back to 2002, which was when Lula took over, I admit I was a little bit concerned with the debt dynamics," says Claudia Calich, the head of emerging markets for Invesco in New York. "Bond prices collapsed, so the market was pricing in almost a certainty of default. The debt dynamics were much worse than they are now - you had more external debt, the country's reserves were much lower.

"Arguably, if that had persisted for a long time and had been combined with bad economic policies, the country could have gone into default at some point. But what changed the sentiment of the market was that Lula pursued relatively orthodox policies, along the same lines as Fernando Henrique Cardoso." According to the Center for Global Development in Washington DC, Brazil's external debt-to-GDP ratio had fallen to 18% by 2008, compared with an average of 27% for countries in Latin America.

In addition to improved debt fundamentals, Brazil's central bank also began to get inflation back under control. Inflation, which was well above target in 2002 and 2003, fell to 7.6% in 2004, and 5.7% in 2005. For the next three years it moved in a range of 3.1%-5.9%, allowing the bank to cut interest rates from over 25% in 2003, to about 13% in 2008 (see graph, below). "[The central bank] are not formally independent, but in practice there is quite a degree of autonomy," says Calich. "It is a very credible institution and they have good people in their ranks."

This new-found stability bolstered Brazil's resilience to external shocks in the run-up to the financial crisis. Robert Wood, a senior analyst and deputy director of country risk for Latin America at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) in New York, says Cardoso's introduction of the "three pillars" - stronger public finances, inflation-targeting and a flexible exchange rate - was crucial. "This is the policy mix that countries like Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Chile and Mexico adopted after the crises in the 1990s, and which stood them in good stead going into Lehmans," he says.

Growth, meanwhile, was boosted by falling unemployment and buoyant global economic conditions. The commodities boom benefited Brazil in particular, as appetite for the country's natural resources rose sharply - notably Chinese demand for iron ore (one of Brazil's biggest exports, alongside soybeans and coffee, according to the World Bank). In 2006, the country's GDP outpaced inflation for the first time in over 50 years, and by the time Lehmans collapsed in September, 2008, the economy was growing at about 7%.

As the crisis took a grip on markets, other factors strengthened Brazil's economic position. Its banks had little direct exposure to the "toxic" assets that plagued the developed world's financial system, and the Brazilian government was in a position to deploy several countercyclical measures. These included tax breaks for struggling sectors such as household appliance manufacturers and the automobile industry, support for indebted companies, and raising the minimum wage.

The central bank also slashed interest rates from 13.75% to 8.75% in early 2009 and - following an annualised contraction of about 13% in the final quarter of 2008 - a V-shaped recovery began to take hold. **

Brazil's growth, and its resilience, has attracted interest from foreign investors and fund managers (see box, below). What excites them, however, is the prospect of a consumer-led boom as the country's population becomes wealthier. Calich says economic stability is allowing Brazil to issue fixed-rate and longer-dated debt (the longest-dated government bonds in the market mature in 2041), creating conditions for longer-term lending to consumers.

Brazil funds for British investors

The number of Brazil-specific funds available to British investors is set to grow this year, with the launch of the first actively-managed onshore Brazil Oeic. Allianz Global Investors expects to unveil the portfolio in October for Michael Konstantinov, who runs the group's £850m RCM Bric Stars fund. The Brazil Oeic will invest predominantly in Brazilian companies but will be able to allocate up to 30% in other Latin American equity markets.

The Allianz fund follows hard on the heels of the first Brazil-focused investment trust, from JP Morgan Asset Management (JPMAM). The trust, announced in March and launched in April, raised £46.7m during its initial public offering. The trust uses a bottom-up strategy and is managed by Sebastian Luparia and Luis Carrillo. Luparia is based in Buenos Aires, while Carrillo works in New York. They aim to identify opportunities with a two- to three-year horizon.

The biggest player in the actively-managed equity sector is HSBC, with its £1.3 billion Luxembourg-domiciled GIF Brazil Equity portfolio (see table, below). The fund, which is run by José Cuervo, held 30% of its assets in financials at the end of April, followed by 20% in basic materials and 11% in oil and gas stocks. The portfolio invests directly in Brazil, but also in companies which conduct most of their business in the country.

For investors seeking passive exposure to the Brazil story, there are tracker funds run by KBC Asset Management and iShares. The Irish-domiciled iShares MSCI Brazil exchange traded fund has a total expense ratio of 0.74%. It tracks the performance of the MSCI Brazil index and its biggest sector allocations on May 4 were materials (28%), financials (23%) and energy (23%). Both products lagged the active equity funds over the past 12 months, but outperformed on a three-year basis.

"The impact is that it creates a price for Brazilian risk, so that has allowed credit creation to take off," Calich explains. "Ten or 20 years ago with hyper-inflation it was hard to get credit, because hyper-inflation was the rule and the currency was either collapsing or being changed. This increase in the extension of government debt - and more importantly the fall in government yields in Brazilian real terms - has allowed credit to increase and mortgages have taken off.

"This also then allows the middle class of Brazilians to finally emerge. Purchasing power has improved. In the past, either you had a small minority of wealthier individuals who would buy things in cash and everybody else struggled to make regular purchases. You're also getting a consumer credit culture, so you're suddenly getting this large part of the population that at one point was unable, but now they're becoming middle class and they're buying things on credit."

A study by the Getulio Vargas Foundation estimates that 10m Brazilians joined the middle class between 2004 and 2008, and Wood says credit rose from about 25% to 45% of GDP over the same period. While mortgage spending remains low (about 1% of GDP), some commentators forecast a rise to 10% of GDP over the next five years.

Mario Fleck, the president of Rio Bravo Investments in São Paulo, says the mortgage and credit markets will develop further, albeit slowly. "In the old days of high interest rates and high inflation, people would not buy houses with terms beyond 2-3 years and most people would buy their cars almost for cash," says Fleck. "The mentality in Brazilian culture is that it doesn't matter how much you pay as long as your income is enough to pay the monthly instalments, and that's true for buying a fridge, a car or a house. But the trend is still very positive for the internal market here."

Poverty remains a significant problem in Brazil - the World Bank estimates that 9% of Brazil's 200m population was living on the equivalent of less than $2 a day in 2008, down from 22% in 2003. But the impact of rising wealth and credit creation among the middle classes can already be seen on the streets of Natal, the state capital of Rio Grande do Norte in north-east Brazil - one of the poorest areas of the country. Housing developments are springing up across the city, as middle class buyers move into apartment blocks for security and parking.

The region is attracting foreign money, and organisers estimate that this year's Nordeste Invest conference - designed to boost real estate and tourism in north-east Brazil - generated about R1.8 billion (£660m) of new business. British companies already operating in the area include Charlemagne Capital and Salamanca Capital, which owns 50% of Ecocil, a local developer. Rupert Hayward, a director at Salamanca, says the north-east is attractive because of a lack of competition from the bigger listed construction firms, and lower land costs.

Outside of real estate, Fleck says wider credit availability offers "a huge opportunity" for other sectors. "With this capitalisation of the economy and more reasonable inflation and interest rates, we have big opportunities for retailers, for consumption, for electronics, and everything that comes with an emergent middle class," Fleck adds. "That could mean insurance and tourism - things on which people are not used to having the money available to spend."

In addition to credit expansion, higher wages in the public sector are also enabling consumers to spend more. Between 2003 and 2009, the number of civil servants increased by about 10%, but the total federal wage bill more than doubled in nominal terms. Wood says the government increased the minimum wage by 12% in 2009 - an increase of 7% in real terms, which will feed through to about 40% of workers.

But while higher wages and greater access to credit is bringing better housing and living conditions, fears about inflation are once again coming to the fore. The country's economy grew by about 2.5% in the first quarter of 2010, an annualised rate of 10%. The EIU forecasts growth of 6.3% this year - well above the IMF's estimate and too fast to be sustainable, according to Wood.

In particular, there are concerns that the country has spent too much money on higher wages and too little on infrastructure to support greater consumption and trade. Wood says Brazil is "notoriously poor" at infrastructure, in contrast to other emerging nations such as China. "Brazil has spent very little in public investment as a share of GDP - it's only around 1 or 2%," he says. "During this boom, you've had an increased tax take but unfortunately the quality of spending hasn't been great. In the crisis, it went into civil servants' pay packets rather than being used to fund projects to increase productivity."

According to the World Bank, Brazil could significantly reduce its expenditure on logistics through investment in transport infrastructure - at present, it takes twice as long for Brazil to export than America. The government has ramped up spending by introducing the "PAC" accelerated growth programme, which aims to spend up to R40.5 billion on logistics, including R27.7 billion on almost 5,000 kilometres of roads - although Wood notes that only 50%-60% of PAC money has been spent so far.

Investors sense an opportunity. According to Jonathon Ong, a portfolio manager at Macquarie Funds Group, demand for electricity is growing at 1.2-1.3 times GDP a year, while vehicle traffic is rising at a similar rate. He has been overweight Brazilian infrastructure for several months, including investments in electric utilities, toll-roads, railways and ports. Ong points to government estimates that R90 billion will be spent on Brazilian infrastructure in the next five years - much of it related to the country's hosting of the World Cup in 2014 and the Olympic Games in 2016.

But some commentators remain sceptical on PAC. Fleck recalls that even before the economy slowed during the banking crisis the country's ports were struggling to cope with increased shipping. He dismisses the programme as "window dressing" but says that better infrastructure is crucial. "Everything is going very well so far, but down the road Brazil does not have the infrastructure to grow beyond 5%, maybe 6% a year," he adds. "Doing some work on this infrastructure might change Brazil forever."

Going hand in hand with the uptick in inflation are fears that Brazil could attract speculative capital inflows from overseas. In its April World Economic Outlook, the IMF noted the strong recovery in Latin America and the Caribbean, but also warned that inflation-targeting countries in the region may be vulnerable to short-term inflows as they seek to prevent overheating. "There is [an] argument for keeping interest rates low for a longer period than justified by domestic cyclical considerations, because higher interest rates may attract speculative capital inflows," it said.

Brazil took measures to limit speculative foreign inflows in 2009, with the introduction of a 2% tax in October. "The received wisdom is that it doesn't have much effect, but it coincided with the exuberance towards Brazil in the third quarter," says Wood. "One could argue that the signal sent by policymakers was that they are ready to do something, to throw some sand in the works. Managing the capital inflows will be a challenge, but they've done reasonably well so far." Wood says he does not expect the tax to increase, unless there is further appreciation in the real.

Despite the risks of inflation and speculative capital inflows, Wood says most of the concerns centre around Brazil's ability to manage growth - a problem that is "a luxury to have". However, the full realisation of Brazil's potential is still some way off. "The next period is about consolidating the stabilisation story," Wood says. "Brazil is well positioned to grow 4.5 - 5%, but even at those rates you're not going to see a rapid convergence with income levels in developed markets. So although it's doing well, and the middle class is doing well, the economy will still be lagging behind the developed markets for a while."

• Will Jackson was a guest of the Association for Real Estate and Tourism Development (ADIT) at the 2010 Nordeste Invest conference in Natal, Brazil.

**Note: This article was updated on June 1. Robert Wood's comment that "policymakers threw everything but the kitchen sink at the meltdown" referred to countries in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and China - not Brazil. This quote was removed.

April industrial production: Brazil's bubble gets bigger

June 1, 2010 7:45pm | by Jonathan Wheatley

Yet more evidence that Brazil's economy is growing too quickly for comfort: figures for industrial production in April published today showed a year on year increase of 17.4 per cent, more even than the whopping 16.1 per cent consensus among market economists. The quarter on quarter, seasonally adjusted annualised rate of growth was even bigger, at 19.1 per cent.

It is true that April's figure actually showed a decline from March, falling by 0.7 per cent (the consensus was for a fall of 1.0 per cent). But this was probably due to a slowdown in inventory replacement, after March's month on month surge of 3.4 per cent.

Growth certainly seems to be advancing in fits and starts this year. As Maurício Oreng of Itaú Unibanco wrote to clients this morning:

Our tracking of Q2 GDP growth stands at 4.9% qoq/saar, a welcome moderation from Q1, when the qoq/saar growth was probably a double digit. Even so, manufacturing activity suggests an overheated economy. Further policy action (both fiscal and monetary) is needed to re-balance demand and supply and quell inflationary pressures.

The monetary action will probably come next week, when the central bank's monetary policy committee is expected to raise interest rates for the second time in two meetings. Guido Mantega, finance minister, has promised fiscal action in the form of R$10bn in budget cuts. But they have yet to materialise.

Meanwhile, Brazil appears to be heading deeper into bubble territory.

Los ministros de Industria y Economía se reunirán la semana próxima con sus pares de Brasil para reequilibrar el desarrollo industrial

La ministra de Industria y Turismo, Débora Giorgi, y el de Economía y Finanzas, Amado Boudou, se reunirán la semana próxima con sus pares de Brasil, Miguel Jorge y Guido Mantega, para "trabajar en el desarrollo de herramientas comerciales que permitan equilibrar la balanza comercial entre ambos países", se informó ayer oficialmente.

La reunión, que se llevará a cabo en Buenos Aires, fue acordada la semana pasada en Río de Janeiro durante el encuentro que mantuvieron los presidentes Cristina Fernández de Kirchner y Luiz Inacio Da Silva. Giorgi, a través de un comunicado de prensa, sostuvo que "nuestro objetivo es trabajar en medidas que nos permitan reequilibrar el desarrollo industrial de ambos países y equiparar la balanza comercial, que por ahora resulta desfavorable para Argentina".

La ministra se refirió así a los números que publicó ayer la Secretaría de Comercio Exterior de Brasil (SECEX), donde se indica que, en lo que va del año, el saldo comercial resultó negativo para Argentina en 920 millones de dólares. Detalló que en la "agenda de trabajo" que abordarán los ministros contempla temas como "la necesidad de profundizar el sistema de pago en moneda local, la integración de cadenas productivas, el financiamiento de las exportaciones con fondos del Banco Nacional de Desarrollo de Brasil (BNDES) y eliminación de las barreras de acceso al mercado brasileño".

Giorgi destacó que el saldo comercial positivo de Brasil con el mundo en los primeros cinco meses del año disminuyó en 3.687 millones de dólares, con respecto al mismo período del 2009, mientras que en el intercambio con Argentina aumentó en 954 millones de dólares. "En este contexto de déficit, parece increíble que sigamos escuchando algunas voces relacionadas con la importación que agitan fantasmas en la relación comercial, que si bien es profunda también debe recorrer el camino de la equiparación del desequilibrio comercial", afirmó Giorgi.

La ministra sostuvo el déficit con el principal socio del Mercosur refleja el "fuerte crecimiento de la actividad económica en nuestro país -6,4 % en el primer trimestre- y el aumento de la producción industrial -9,2 %, enero-abril". Explicó además, que el crecimiento industrial impulsa la mayor importación de bienes de capital, partes y piezas, e insumos industriales, por caso mineral de hierro que no se produce en la Argentina y que es requerido por la siderurgia, que lidera el crecimiento industrial detrás del sector automotriz.

En ese sentido, relacionó directamente el déficit con Brasil con la expansión récord de la industria automotriz en Argentina durante 2010, un sector que tiene una estructura deficitaria con el país vecino. Al respecto sostuvo que "para revertir esta situación, Argentina tiene en marchas un programa de financiamiento exclusivo para el sector automotriz con fondos de la ANSES por 350 millones de pesos, para desarrollar el autopartismo local, además de los 8.000 millones anunciados el lunes por la presidenta para financiar inversiones productivas", puntualizó la ministra de Industria y Turismo.

Por último, Giorgi, al comparar el déficit actual que tiene Argentina con Brasil respecto al del 2008 en los primeros cinco meses del año, dijo que se redujo un 58 por ciento debido a que pasó de 2175 millones de dólares a 920 millones de dólares.

LAS VARIABLES DE UNA DURA DISCUSION EN PEKIN POR LAS EXPORTACIONES DE ACEITE DE SOJA

El difícil arte de pulsear con China

Argentina, Miércoles, 2 de junio de 2010

Dentro del hermetismo con el que se desarrollan las negociaciones, trascendió que una salida posible sería consensuar un control voluntario de ambas partes a sus exportaciones: calzados y textiles chinos y aceites argentinos.

"Si hay hermetismo, es porque la negociación es dura", comentan cerca de la delegación argentina que viajó a China para resolver la traba que los asiáticos impusieron contra el aceite de soja. Mientras los chinos se quejan de la política de monitoreo comercial que aplica Argentina, los funcionarios locales incorporaron a la mesa de negociación el persistente saldo comercial bilateral desfavorable. La salida sería, según indican fuentes cercanas a la negociación, consensuar un acuerdo voluntario de exportación. Implicaría mantener las exportaciones de aceite de soja a cambio de que China otorgue cupos a sus exportaciones de calzado, textiles y otros productos afectados por las medidas antidumping y las licencias no automáticas de importación que aplica el Ministerio de Industria argentino. Desde el Senasa aseguraron a este diario que la parte sanitaria ya está arreglada. Resta lo más difícil.

En un doble juego de defenderse y procurar evitar defensas de terceros, el Gobierno busca, al igual que cualquier país en materia comercial, limitar la entrada de productos que afecten la industria local y maximizar las posibilidades de colocar las exportaciones. Para negociar la traba local a la importación de alimentos, en dos semanas recibirá la visita de los ministros de Economía y Desarrollo de Brasil, Guido Mantega y Miguel Jorge. A la par, otros funcionarios buscan que China deje de restringir sus compras de aceite de soja, segundo producto de exportación después de la harina de soja.

Además de la cuestión "proteccionista", está la intención de China de incorporar valor agregado, reduciendo sus compras de aceite para elevar las de poroto de soja, de forma que su propia industria aceitera se desarrolle. La (implícita) respuesta provino del ministro de Economía, Amado Boudou. "El Gobierno está trabajando muy fuerte para agregar valor a las exportaciones a China, de manera que salga más aceite que poroto de soja", indicó.

Durante abril y mayo no hubo embarques de aceite de soja, porque China elevó los topes máximos aceptables de solvente por litro. Como Argentina abastece el 45 por ciento de la demanda china de este producto, la medida afecta al país directamente. Pero las empresas que operan en el sector son, en su gran mayoría, multinacionales con sede en todos los países productores y vendedores, y utilizan tecnología de punta. Por ello, que estas empresas vean dificultadas en llegar al nuevo requerimiento tiene que ver con el exagerado piso asiático y no con una deficiencia local.

Una de las razones que habrían movido a China a aplicar la medida es la política de comercio administrado que se ejecuta desde la cartera de Industria. A partir de los antidumpings y las licencias no automáticas de importación, procuran controlar la entrada de productos chinos que amenacen con destruir puestos de trabajo en la industria local. Estas modalidades están previstas por la OMC, y de hecho en ningún caso China recusó su aplicación, cosa que sí ocurrió entre los asiáticos y Estados Unidos o la Unión Europea.

Según comentan cerca de la negociación, una opción para dirimir el conflicto sería desarrollar un acuerdo voluntario de comercio, algo similar a lo que ocurre entre Argentina y Brasil. "No es el camino más directo, tampoco es sencillo, pero es factible", indican. De adoptarse, se podría mantener el nivel de ventas de aceite a cambio de negociar la entrada de ciertos productos chinos. En última instancia, se trataría de una entrada controlada y custodiada.

De la reunión en Pekín con el viceministro de Comercio Exterior, Shan Zhong, participaron el secretario de Comercio y Relaciones Económicas Internacionales, Alfredo Chiaradía; el secretario de Industria, Eduardo Bianchi; el embajador en China, César Mayoral, y el presidente del Senasa, Jorge Amaya. "El diálogo continuará por vía diplomática hasta tener un entendimiento en las próximas semanas", indicó Chiaradía. Durante la jornada de hoy tendrá lugar otro encuentro a nivel técnico.

El viceministro chino, en tanto, manifestó que "la visita es una muestra de buena voluntad de la Argentina para encaminar aún más el vínculo entre ambos países". Otra razón de la traba al aceite de soja tendría que ver con la estrategia global china de buscar reducir los precios de sus productos de importación, para contener la inflación interna que mina su competitividad.

Más allá de la importancia estratégica de China como socio comercial, los especialistas explican que la Argentina está bien parada para encarar esta negociación. Es que, por el volumen de producción local de aceite de soja, son exportaciones difíciles de reemplazar. Según un estudio interno del Senasa, los asiáticos tendrían aceite en stock para abastecerse por dos o tres meses. Pasado ese tiempo, deberían volver a comprar el producto.

La delegación argentina agregó un condimento adicional a la negociación. A la par que el comercio bilateral se ha incrementado fuertemente desde 2003, los funcionarios resaltaron que el déficit bilateral para la Argentina se viene incrementando desde 2008. En aquel año el rojo fue de 700 millones de dólares, en 2009 llegó a 1200 millones y en el primer cuatrimestre del año ya está en 800 millones (con una proyección anual de 2400 millones, el doble que el año pasado y más del triple que en 2008).

Informe: Javier Lewkowicz.

El FMI avisa de que "no basta" con las acciones anticrisis ya aprobadas por España

El "tijeretazo" no colma las expectativas del Fondo Monetario Internacional, que vuelve a reclamar al Gobierno central que flexibilice el mercado de trabajo, sin precisar en qué forma, y actuaciones económicas "urgentes y decisivas".

EL DÍA, S/C de Tenerife

El director gerente del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), Dominique Strauss-Khan, ha elogiado en los últimos días, por activa y por pasiva, la medidas adoptadas por el Gobierno español para afrontar la crisis económica, pero también ha dejado claro que "no bastan" y que es imprescindible una "flexibilización del mercado" laboral. Una opinión que comparten a pies juntillas organismos internacionales de la talla de la Organización para la Cooperación y el Desarrollo Económico (OCDE) y el propio Eurobanco.

El FMI reiteró ya el 24 de mayo, el mismo día en que el Boletín Oficial del Estado (BOE) publicó el Real Decreto Ley que contiene las medidas urgentes adoptadas por el Gobierno central para reducir el déficit público, que la economía española requiere de reformas amplias y de largo alcance para controlar el déficit fiscal, rebajar el elevado endeudamiento y adaptar su sistema bancario al signo de los nuevos tiempos.

En un informe hecho público ese día, el Fondo indica que se impone reformar los sistemas bancario y de pensiones y modificar en profundidad el mercado laboral. "El ajuste está en marcha pero la recuperación de la economía de España será frágil y débil durante mucho tiempo, a la vez que la incertidumbre es amplia y las condiciones del mercado podrían aún deteriorarse más tanto para el sector público como para el privado", según advierten los autores del estudio, que recomiendan, por ello, adoptar tres actuaciones prioritarias:

Consolidación fiscal de las finanzas públicas para ponerlas sobre bases sustentables.

Flexibilizar el mercado laboral para promover el empleo y su reasignación en los distintos sectores.

Reformar el sector bancario para cimentar su eficiencia y sostenibilidad.

El organismo sostiene que estas reformas, aplicadas de manera conjunta, producirían sinergias. Y a modo de ejemplo indica que una modificación del mercado laboral acompañada de cambios en mercados de bienes y servicios dispararía inversiones, aumentaría el empleo y reduciría precios, fortaleciendo, de paso, las finanzas públicas y el sector bancario.

El documento remarca que España deberá reformar el sistema de pensiones y financiero para adecuarlos a los requerimientos actuales. El FMI hace hincapié en la necesidad de reformar la legislación sobre el funcionamiento de las cajas de ahorros, que cuentan con impedimentos legales para fusionarse o para recibir inversores externos.

Tras difundirse el informe de este organismo internacional, el Ministerio de Economía y Hacienda emitió una nota en la que se limitó a apuntar que es obvio que "para el FMI es crucial acelerar las reformas estructurales anunciadas por el Ejecutivo". El Fondo, de entrada, valora las medidas de ajuste de Zapatero, pero pide, además de las antes citadas actuaciones, un recorte en las prestaciones sanitarias para reducir deuda.

Guerra al número rojo

España debe bajar su déficit en 9,4 puntos porcentuales en la próxima década, una de las reducciones más drásticas del mundo, siempre según cálculos del FMI, que defiende que un buen plan de ajuste podría, incluso, acelerar la actividad económica.

El grueso de los especialistas considera que, con estas sugerencias, el FMI ha hecho una llamada de atención a los países ricos en general para que la vuelta al crecimiento no los haga "complacientes" sobre los números rojos de sus cuentas públicas.

El FMI, que acaba de divulgar sendos informes sobre la situación fiscal en el mundo, estima que los países ricos tendrán que reducir su déficit en 8,75 puntos porcentuales de su Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) durante la próxima década, más que lo previsto anteriormente, para que su deuda vuelva al 60% del PIB de media en el 2030, el porcentaje de antes de la crisis.

En el caso de España, que ha sufrido una recesión más larga que la mayoría de sus vecinos y donde los ingresos públicos han caído también en mayor medida, la corrección del déficit debe ser más profunda, insiste el Fondo.

"Las medidas tomadas son importantes, van en la dirección correcta, al mejorar la credibilidad del ajuste en ese país", dijo en una rueda de prensa el director de asuntos fiscales del Fondo, Carlo Cottarelli.

El Gobierno español, como ya se ha informado, rebajará los sueldos de los empleados públicos en 2010, congelará las pensiones en 2011 y reducirá la inversión pública, entre otras acciones, las cuales han hecho temer un retroceso de la actividad económica en el país, al bajar la demanda interna.

Cottarelli reconoció que ese temor existe, pero dijo que la experiencia de ajuste en otros países demuestra que su efecto sobre el crecimiento depende de la solidez de los planes del Gobierno.

"Si el ajuste fiscal es creíble, podría incluso dar un empujón a la actividad económica, porque la gente preverá tasas de interés reales más bajas en el futuro y menos volatilidad" en los mercados, dijo Cottarelli, que agregó que en el caso de España, un buen plan de reducción del déficit podría estimular la recuperación al disipar cualquier duda sobre su capacidad para pagar la deuda.

El FMI se queja de la falta de detalle en los planes de los gobiernos de los países ricos en general para sanear sus cuentas, y ha querido llenar el vacío con su propia receta. En esta línea, recomienda concentrarse sobre todo en recortar el gasto público, con la subida en dos años de la edad de jubilación y la reducción de los sueldos de los empleados públicos, la inversión social, los subsidios agrícolas y el presupuesto militar.

Disipar dudas

A juicio del FMI, un factor clave será estabilizar el gasto público en salud, que en España supera el 6% del PIB, y en ese sentido el organismo aconseja reducir la cobertura.

España y otros países que requieren un gran ajuste presupuestario tampoco podrán escaparse a la subida de gravámenes. El FMI sugirió elevar los impuestos sobre los bienes raíces, el tabaco, el alcohol, los combustibles y el Impuesto sobre el Valor Añadido (IVA).

Además, propone gravar las emisiones de contaminación o subastar los permisos de emisión de gases, lo que además de mejorar el medio ambiente supondría una nueva fuente de ingresos públicos.

Ante la dificultad de adoptar medidas como las sugeridas por el FMI, los gobiernos podrían caer en la tentación de renunciar a bajar la deuda y simplemente aspirar a estabilizarla a un nivel más alto que antes de la crisis, en palabras de Cottarelli, que advirtió de que eso generaría tasas de interés más elevadas y un menor crecimiento a largo plazo.

El director gerente del FMI, que el jueves pasado se apresuró a elogiar al Gobierno español "por las decisiones que ha tomado", hizo suyas estas consideraciones en una rueda de prensa en Brasilia, donde se entrevistó con el ministro de Hacienda de ese país, Guido Mantega.

Dominique Strauss-Kahn, en línea con lo que una misión del FMI observó la semana pasada, tras una serie de consultas con el Gobierno español, apuntó que es necesario "flexibilizar el mercado de trabajo", aunque no precisó en qué forma. "Le cabe al Gobierno español trabajar con los sindicatos y la sociedad" para avanzar en ese sentido, declaró el director gerente del FMI, quien recordó que este organismo no tiene en este momento ningún programa en marcha con el Gobierno español.

FACTBOX-Key political risks to watch in Brazil

May 31 (Reuters) - Brazil's presidential election in October looks less risky to investors than any other in the last quarter of a century and the economy has bounced back after a brief recession, but there are still investment risks to watch in Brazil this year.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's chief of staff, Dilma Rousseff, is the ruling Workers' Party candidate to succeed him. She has closed the gap on her main rival, Jose Serra, a former Sao Paulo state Governor Jose Serra from the centrist opposition PSDB party.

Most analysts make Rousseff the favorite because she can count on support from the hugely popular Lula and will be helped by the rebounding economy.

Unlike previous elections, there is no clear market favorite because neither of the main contenders is expected to break with the mostly market-friendly policies in place for the past decade: a free-floating currency, inflation control, and fiscal discipline. Some investors prefer Serra for his party's centrist stance and his managerial experience.

In an effort to win over centrist voters and avoid unsettling investors, Rousseff has emphasized market-friendly proposals so far in the campaign.

Serra, who believes the government should be active in economic affairs, has yet to spell out MANY specific policy proposals. However, he recently called for lower interest rates and urged an overhaul of Brazil's costly pension system.

Rousseff, who was endorsed by the center-left Workers' Party in February, has praised the central bank and pledged continuity. She has said the bank should keep focusing on controlling inflation in coming years before it could consider economic and job growth when setting monetary policy.

Serra wants the central bank to look at the broader economy and not just inflation when setting interest rates. He says the central bank should have cut interest rates more aggressively during the 2008 global financial crisis.

There is also some doubt about how firmly the candidates would push for a second generation of structural reforms to ensure Brazil's international competitiveness if elected.

Both agree on the need to overhaul Brazil's complicated tax system to encourage investment but have not provided many details. Serra wants to reform the pension system by cutting benefits for some civil servants, while Rousseff favors a piecemeal reform that would raise more money to finance the growing pension deficit and alter some retirement rules.

Neither proposes nationalizing private companies. But Rousseff, and to a lesser extent Serra, favor a strong role for state firms in the economy, a position that gained support after low-cost loans by state banks helped Brazil's economy recover from the global crisis. Larger state companies could weaken private sector participation in sectors such as banking, oil, and utilities.

Rousseff has said growth of state banks would not infringe on private banks, which she said were necessary to drive economic expansion and spur competition.

Government plans to revive state-owned telephone company Telebras (TELB4.SA) to expand broadband Internet access have sent its shares sharply higher, but further moves to strengthen Telebras could depress shares of private telecoms. Lula also wants to strengthen state-owned power company Eletrobras [ELET6.SA], though the intent may be to expand mostly abroad.

Serra, who launched his candidacy in April, is widely believed to be the tougher of the two main candidates on fiscal discipline and has said he would cap current expenditures, potentially paving the way for swifter interest rate and tax cuts.

What to watch:

-- Serra and Rousseff will name their economic advisors in coming weeks. A left-wing choice could unnerve investors and send jitters through financial markets.

-- Details of Serra's economic proposals, particularly fiscal and monetary policy.

GOVERNMENT SPENDING

The government is expected to maintain a high level of spending before the election, putting pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates to curb inflation. Public spending rose sharply in 2009, eroding the primary budget surplus to an eight-year low of 2 percent of gross domestic product. Finance Minister Guido Mantega has pledged to pursue a surplus of 3.3 percent of GDP in 2010 but inflation still remains on track to surpass the center of the government's year-end target.

What to watch:

-- Weak monthly primary surplus figures would indicate worsening fiscal discipline and could push up interest rate futures.

-- Lula and Mantega could put increasing pressure on central bank chief Henrique Meirelles to keep expected interest rate hikes to a minimum so as not to jeopardize the economic recovery in an election year.

OIL AND GAS

Congress is expected to approve by the end of the year government-proposed legislation that would increase state control over some of the world's biggest recent oil finds. The overhaul seeks to ensure proceeds from vast new fields flow to the state to help bankroll investments in areas like infrastructure, education and poverty-reduction programs.

The measures will likely reduce competition in the sector while boosting the role of state energy giant Petrobras (PETR4.SA)(PBR.N), offering fewer but still attractive opportunities for foreign investors.

Critics say the laws threaten the efficiency of Brazil's successful oil sector by stifling investment and increasing the dangers of political interference and corruption.

Brazil's Chamber of Deputies has approved the four legislative proposals but they could be delayed in a scheduled June vote in the Senate, where the government only has a narrow majority. Analysts give the entire legislative proposal about a 60 percent chance of approval this year.

What to watch:

-- A bill allowing a $60-100 billion capitalization of Petrobras, including $15-20 billion in cash; uncertainty over its approval in Congress has already pushed the company's share price lower.

-- Disagreement in the Senate over how to distribute oil revenue between the federal government and states could hold up parts of the legislative proposal, particularly after the beginning of the World Cup soccer tournament in mid-June and election campaigning by legislators in August.

POLICY STAGNATION

Nearly a dozen cabinet members resigned in April to campaign for public office in the Oct. 3 election. Most have been replaced by career civil servants who typically lack the political capital to push the government's agenda.

What to watch:

-- If Lula's successor fails to win a clear majority in Congress, reforms needed to improve Brazil's long-term competitiveness may face difficulty getting approval. These include reforms to an unwieldy tax system, costly pension benefits and rigid labor laws.

-- Strong pledges from Serra or Rousseff to cut spending and boost efficiency could help reduce inflation expectations.

CORRUPTION

Mud-slinging and corruption scandals tend to surface during Brazilian election campaigns. They could paralyze Congress and harm the camp of either of the leading candidates. Lula himself came close to facing impeachment proceedings in 2005 when his party was involved in an illegal campaign-financing scandal.

FOREIGN POLICY

If elected, Serra is likely to cool ties with some of Lula's left-wing allies in Latin America. That could affect energy investments in Bolivia and Venezuela, where Lula had prodded Petrobras to invest to foster regional integration.

Serra recently accused the Bolivian government of turning a blind eye to cross-border drug trafficking. Some analysts think Serra could also take a harder line in trade disputes with Argentina and the South American trade block Mercosur.

Rousseff, by contrast, has pledged to continue current foreign policy and could name the current deputy foreign minister, Antonio Patriota, as Brazil's top diplomat. (Additional reporting by Brian Ellsworth; Editing by Kieran Murray)

Fives steps to a better society

By Carlos Aquino (China Daily)| Updated: 2010-06-01 07:48

China's economy is growing, but so is its income divide. The Gini coefficient has increased alarmingly. The coefficient measures income inequality in a society, with 0 signifying perfectly equal distribution of wealth among households and 1 denoting that a single household controls all the wealth.

When China's reform and opening up began in 1979, its Gini coefficient was less than 0.35. Today, it is 0.47. If this trend continues, grievances against the system will grow and could threaten the country's stability, as well as economic development.

In a way, the widening income gap in China is the unwanted result of some of its development policies such as opening up the coastal areas first and leaving inland areas behind. This triggered a mass migration from rural to urban areas.

Migrant workers, who migrate to cities in search of better opportunities, are among the poorest people in the country. They cannot fully enjoy the benefits of living in cities, because most of them are not recognized as residents of the cities they work in. According to their hukou (household registration), they are considered rural residents (and cannot become urban dwellers), and thus have no access to housing and healthcare and cannot send their children to school in cities.

The Chinese government has been trying to modify the hukou system, but the process needs to be expedited because millions of more people will move from rural to urban areas.

China must do something to avoid the trap that Latin American countries fell into. The Gini coefficient in Latin American countries is around or even more than 0.50. So, what can China do to ensure that more people share the fruits of its economic growth?

First, the Chinese government should improve the living standards of rural residents, who comprise the largest number of poor in the country, and take steps to raise their income level, which is one-third or even lower than that in urban areas.

The government has to help farmers increase their production by introducing machinery and fertilizers, and shifting their production from low-value to high-value products (from basic grains like rice and wheat to vegetables and fruits, for instance). It has to improve the irrigation system and roads, too, so that farmers can carry their products easily and at lower costs to markets. Once, the income levels of rural residents increase, fewer people would move from villages to cities for jobs.

Second, improvement of the education system and making it accessible to all should not be confined to paper; it should be real. Poor farmers find it very difficult to send their children to school to even finish their basic education. As a result, the cycle of poverty, lack of proper education and low-paying jobs continues.

Third, the government has to increase its spending on social infrastructure, such as hospitals, schools and housing, especially in the urban areas. Housing prices have risen so drastically that it has become almost impossible for low-income earners to buy a house even in rural areas. The government should devise a scheme to build subsidized houses for the low-income and poor households. That leads to another government task: creating a social safety net for disadvantaged people and even granting direct subsidies to some of them.

An interesting example of this can be found in Brazil, a country known for its high income-disparity level (Gini coefficient 0.57) but which has taken great strides in the past decade toward narrowing the income gap. Success has come through a government scheme under which a certain amount of money is handed directly to the poorest people every month. But this money comes attached with certain conditions like parents have to ensure that their children complete their basic school years and undergo regular medical check-ups.

Fourth, the fight against corruption should be intensified. When people who have not benefited from the country's economic development see that corrupt officials escape without punishment, their frustration grows and pushes them toward violence. As people get disenchanted with the economic and social system, their resentment grows further. Hence, it is necessary to establish a system that will ensure that the guilty, regardless of their position, are punished.

And fifth, people must be allowed to express their disagreements with the economic and social situations. A system in which people can voice their feelings and vent their frustration should be built to prevent people from resorting to violence to let off steam. This can happen only when people's representatives are made more accountable to those who elect them. Exercising some supervisory power over their elected representatives will make people feel they have a direct stake in the system and know that they can hold the authorities accountable if they do not respond to their demands.

The author is professor of international economies at San Marcos National University in Lima, Peru.

From the chinese press

(China Daily)| Updated: 2010-06-01 07:48

PetroChina needs introspection

A Chinese company, PetroChina, has topped the list of Financial Times' (FT) 500 most valuable listed companies. But this crown is encrusted with some sordid diamonds, says an article on qq.com. Excerpts:

PetroChina and the other 20 Chinese companies on the list of 500 most valued firms are State-owned enterprises, that is, they belong to all Chinese people. The owners' economic status, however, has been lagging far behind their companies.

The most-valuable tag for a company does not necessarily mean it is also an industry leader. In reality, too, PetroChina is not. Its profit in 2008 was only one-third of Exxon Mobil, which is ranked second in the (FT) list, and its 3-billion-ton reserve is trivial compared to about 36-billion-ton reserve of Saudi Aramco. And yet it employs the largest number of people, 1.67 million, making it the poorest in efficiency.

Moreover, the ranking may further upset its shareholders on the Chinese mainland who bought its shares for about 48 yuan each only to see them nose-dive to less than 10 yuan. Most of the shareholders will need decades to recover their cost. In sharp contrast, the company's stock listing in US raised only $2.9 billion, but it has already distributed $11.9 billion in dividends.

Besides, PetroChina should thank the central government's fiscal subsidies for its top ranking instead of feeling proud of its business success. And it should reflect on whether it has been a company responsible to all Chinese people.

Medical treatment can be free

The government should provide free medical treatment to all Chinese, and it can afford to do so, says an article on southcn.com. Excerpts:

Medical bills have become a big burden for ordinary households, raising calls for the government to make healthcare free. Now an official in Guangdong has said the province can. Liao Xinbo, the deputy director of Guangdong's health department, said recently that the province needed only 40 billion yuan to provide free medical care to all its residents, which obviously is a small amount for the rich province.

Adopting the same logic, a Central China Television official said that if the central government were to earmark another 400 billion yuan a year to the health sector, it would solve the healthcare problem across the country. The amount should not be a burden for a country like China. The government should, therefore, start taking concrete steps to provide free medical treatment to all citizens, especially because the medical reform of the past few years has failed, resulting only in creating a dirty official-pharmacist-doctor-hospital nexus.

Compared with Brazil, another developing country, China has better infrastructure but a poorer social system. Airports, highways and buildings in Brazil cannot match those in China, but all Brazilians enjoy free medical treatment and education, the costs of which are two of the biggest burdens for most Chinese families.

Petrobras digs deep in committing to NZ oil exploration

4:00 AM Wednesday Jun 2, 2010

The hunt for oil in New Zealand has been boosted by one of the world's biggest oil companies committing to explore off East Cape, although experts are warning chances of early success in the frontier basin are low.

Brazil's state oil company Petrobras has been awarded a five-year permit for much of the Raukumara Basin and if it commits to an exploration well within that time it will have spent an estimated $156 million.

Energy and Resources Minister Gerry Brownlee said it was exciting that the company - among the top 10 oil and gas companies in the world - was coming to New Zealand.

"Petrobras is an international giant in this industry and a world leader in development of offshore drilling technology and production. Given Petrobras' expertise, and financial and technical pedigree, this is an exciting step into areas of New Zealand until now unexplored."

The exploration permit covers 12,333 sq km where seismic data and modelling work showed the basin had geology capable of trapping hydrocarbons in commercial quantities.

Water depths range from coastal to 3000m at its northern reaches.

BP's ruined well in the Gulf of Mexico is in water 1500m deep.

In scale of companies exploring around New Zealand, Petrobras ranks behind only Exxon Mobil, which soon must make a call on whether to drill in the Great South Basin.

The head of research at McDouall Stuart, John Kidd, said it was extremely positive to have such a big player committing to the country.

Like other oil majors, Petrobras was under pressure to build up reserves and to sustain its high production capacity, now at 2.4 million barrels a day.

"There's a lot of legwork that needs to be done first and they have a massive permit. Petrobras is not here for small oil, they're obviously here for the big prize."

Petroleum Exploration and Production Association chief executive John Pfahlert said Petrobras was a world leader in the development of advanced technology for deep water and ultra-deep water production.

He said the global strike rate from exploration wells is about one in 10, and in New Zealand the odds are longer - about one in 20.

"This is frontier country that nobody knows much about at all."

A petroleum reservoir expert, Michael Adams, said there were good signs of gas movement in the field but any estimate of reserves was speculative.

New Zealand Oil & Gas said it had not been interested in the basin, given it was unproven and did not fit its investment criteria.

Frontier basins manager at GNS Science, Chris Uruski, said although it was close to the active boundary between the Pacific and Australian tectonic plates, there was a surprising lack of faulting in the basin.

He said this was a positive for oil exploration as accumulations were more likely to have remained undisturbed.

BIG TARGET
* The Raukumara Basin covers approximately 25,000sq km - Petrobras will explore half that.
* GNS seismic mapping shows considerable potential for oil and gas.
* Satellite imaging has detected potential offshore seeps that indicate oil and gas.

BIG OIL
* Brazilian state-owned Petroleo Brasileiro - Petrobras - is worth about $300 billion.
* It operates in 27 countries.
* Between 2009 and 2013 it plans to invest $260 billion, much in "elephant" fields off Brazil.

Petrobras Targets Gas Find in New Zealand's Raukumara Basin

June 1 (Bloomberg) -- Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil's state-controlled oil producer, is seeking a large-scale gas discovery off New Zealand's North Island to support a potential liquefied natural gas project.

Petrobras, as the company is known, today won the right to explore 12,333 square kilometers (4,760 square miles) of ocean in the Raukumara Basin north of East Cape. The permit, its first in New Zealand, is part of the Rio de Janeiro-based explorer's strategy to broaden potential sources of LNG, said Marcelo Vertis, manager of international mergers and acquisitions.

"Petrobras has a strategic drive to look for gas in the Oceania region," he told journalists in Wellington. Development will be focused on LNG-scale finds, he said.

Deep sediments and oil seeps offshore and on the Raukumara Peninsula make the basin one of New Zealand's "most prospective" frontier areas, geologists from the state-owned GNS Science said when exploration bids were invited in late 2008. It contains numerous leads, including potential hydrocarbon- bearing sands more than 10 kilometers across, GNS said.

"It's great to have a world leader such as Petrobras to unlock the potential of the Raukumara Basin," Prime Minister John Key said at parliament house. "We must make the most of our offshore basins."

Petrobras, which operates in 28 countries, forecast in October that Brazil's gas demand would almost triple to 168 million cubic meters by 2020 from 58 million in 2008.

More Gas

The Raukumara permit will be held by Petrobras International Braspetro BV and runs from near the nation's east coast to 110 kilometers offshore and includes parts of two areas the government offered.

Petrobras will spend about $118 million on seismic studies and the drilling of one well during the next five years, unless it chooses to surrender the permit early, the government said.

The basin is more likely to hold gas than oil, Vertis said. He wouldn't comment on whether Petrobras is considering other exploration permits being offered in New Zealand.

In April, Petrobras paid $39 million for its first project in Australia and committed as much as $41 million to drill the first well in a potential gas development off Western Australia operated by MEO Australia Ltd.

That project and Raukumara reflect the company's Oceania strategy, Vertis said.

Negocian con Brasil con déficit comercial en alza

Miércoles 2 de junio de 2010

La balanza comercial de la Argentina con Brasil registró en mayo un déficit de u$s 332 millones, lo que implica un crecimiento de 74% respecto de igual periodo de 2009, según datos de la consultora Abeceb.com. El saldo acumulado para los primeros cinco meses del año 2010 señala un déficit de u$s 919 millones.

"Esto es así debido a una mayor velocidad en el crecimiento de las importaciones que de las ventas a Brasil durante el período en cuestión", advierte Abeceb.com.

Señala que las ventas crecieron en los primeros cinco meses un 37,2 por ciento mientras que las compras al Brasil aumentaron un 62 con relación a igual período de 2009.

Este fuerte incremento en las compras al país vecino obedece a las mayores adquisiciones de vehículos y autopartes, aparatos electrónicos, máquinas y equipamientos, plásticos y sus manufacturas, minerales ferrosos y productos siderúrgicos.

La ministra de Industria, Débora Giorgi, interpretó que se debe al "fuerte crecimiento de la actividad económica en nuestro país".

Giorgi y el ministro de Economía, Amado Boudou, se reunirán la semana próxima con sus pares de Brasil, Guido Mantega y Miguel Jorge, para trabajar en el desarrollo de herramientas comerciales que permitan equilibrar la balanza comercial entre ambos países.

La reunión surgió del encuentro que mantuvieron la semana pasada en Río de Janeiro los presidentes Cristina Fernández y Lula da Silva.

La ministra explicó que en la agenda de trabajo entre los ministros se encuentra la necesidad de profundizar el sistema de pago en moneda local, la integración de cadenas productivas, el financiamiento de las exportaciones con fondos del Bndes y eliminación de las barreras de acceso al mercado brasileño.

PEDIDO PARA QUE SE AUTORICEN VUELOS DE NUEVAS COMPAÑÍAS
Brasil reclama más lugar en el mercado aéreo local Las únicas autorizadas de ese país son GOL y TAM.
Afirman que la reticencia del Gobierno se debe a una protección de Aerolíneas Argentinas.

La Agencia de Aviación Civil de Brasil (Anac) denunció que la Argentina está poniendo piedras en el camino para la expansión del mercado a aerolíneas brasileñas, provocando altos precios de los pasajes.

Solange Vieira, presidenta de la entidad, estimó que un aumento de autorización de vuelos permitiría a otras firmas aéreas entrar en ese mercado cuando hoy las únicas autorizadas de Brasil son GOL y TAM.

Estas declaraciones tuvieron lugar en una reunión realizada en Río de Janeiro entre ejecutivos europeos y latinoamericanos de la aviación civil. A su vez, participaron directivos de aerolíneas y responsables de los entes reguladores del sector.

"Estamos en el límite máximo de vuelos con la Argentina y precisamos aumentarlos. Nuestras compañías ya están usando todos los vuelos disponibles y precisamos que el Gobierno argentino autorice el aumento", manifestó la responsable de la aviación civil brasileña.

La ejecutiva acusó al Gobierno nacional de ser reticente en atender la demanda brasileña. Una de las razones sería proteger a la estatal Aerolíneas Argentinas, que pasa por un momento delicado de reestructuración para tratar de hacer frente a su abultado déficit operativo.

Por su parte, el responsable de Relaciones Internacionales de la aviación civil brasileña, Bruno Silva Dalcolmo, agregó que un tercio de los vuelos internacionales en ese país cubren el mercado latinoamericano, lo que significa cuatro millones de pasajeros por año.

"El mercado más dinámico sería el argentino", si no existieran esas restricciones, manifestó.

"América latina es uno de los mercados de la aviación que está experimentando un crecimiento mayor en el mundo y tiene una importancia estratégica para la UE y su industria", señaló la Comisión Europea (CE) a través de un comunicado.

En la cumbre en Río de Janeiro se debatió sobre los principales objetivos del encuentro, como el avance en la eliminación de barreras al transporte aéreo en la UE y América latina, el refuerzo de la seguridad y la protección. También se abordó la gestión del tráfico aéreo y las nuevas tecnologías, además de los aspectos medioambientales del transporte aéreo.

Impulso

En el mismo encuentro celebrado en Río de Janeiro, la Unión Europea firmó un acuerdo de cooperación en aviación civil con la Comisión Latinoamericana de Aviación Civil (CLAC) y otros dos con Brasil para promover la cooperación en materia técnica y también de seguridad.

Las dos entidades suscribieron un memorando de entendimiento que servirá para "dar un impulso muy importante" a las relaciones entre ambos bloques, según explicó el director de Transporte aéreo de la Comisión Europea (CE), el español Daniel Calleja. Por su parte, el director de la CLAC, el chileno José Huepe, afirmó que "beneficiará mucho" a los 22 países que integran el ente.

La CLAC está formada por la Argentina, Aruba, Belice, Bolivia, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Jamaica, México, Nicaragua, Panamá, Paraguay, Perú, República Dominicana, Uruguay y Venezuela.

El organismo europeo también suscribió dos acuerdos técnicos con Brasil, uno de ellos, en materia de seguridad, que servirá para convalidar de forma recíproca las certificaciones concedidas a las aeronaves. El otro, denominado horizontal, supone que el país suramericano reconozca a la UE como un único ente jurídico, lo que permitirá negociaciones con todo el bloque en lugar de reuniones bilateral es con cada país.

En la ceremonia estuvieron presentes el vicepresidente de la CE, Siim Kallas, el titular brasileño de Defensa, Nelson Jobim, y el ministro español de Fomento, José Blanco, en calidad de representante de la Presidencia española de turno de la UE.

Clipping Internacional, 01 de junho de 2010

Brazil, India, China May Be Overheating, Roubini Says (Update4)

May 31, 2010, 7:04 PM EDT

By Andre Soliani and Matthew Bristow

May 31 (Bloomberg) -- Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the global financial crisis before markets peaked, said the Brazilian, Chinese and Indian economies may be overheating and developing asset bubbles.

The outlook for Brazil's economy is "very positive," though the debt crisis in the euro zone countries and a slow "u-shaped" recovery globally could dent the country's growth, Roubini said today at an event in Sao Paulo.

"In Brazil, like in many other emerging market economies, there is now evidence of overheating of the economy," Roubini said. "Expected and actual inflation is starting to rise, and that implies that over the next few quarters there has to be a tightening of monetary policy, gradually but progressively, in order to make sure that inflation expectations remain anchored."

Roubini, 52, recommended that Brazilian policy makers take steps to limit the appreciation of the real, including the "judicious" use of capital controls. The currency has gained 8.2 percent against the dollar over the past 12 months, the best performer among 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg.

The stronger real has made the country's exports more expensive in dollar terms, and the economy could also be hit by a fall in commodity prices, which are likely to decline over the next 6 months to 12 months because of a possible double-dip recession in Europe and a U.S. slowdown, Roubini said.

Housing Bubble

The euro zone economies are likely to stagnate this year, and Greece is growing closer to insolvency and may be forced to restructure its debt, Roubini added.

Euro-area ministers agreed on May 2 to provide 110 billion euros ($135 billion) of aid to Greece as the country struggled to control a deficit that reached 13.6 percent of GDP last year, more than four times the EU limit. When that failed to stop the euro's slide, the EU and International Monetary Fund offered a financial lifeline of almost $1 trillion to member states.

Europe's currency has dropped 14 percent against the dollar this year, the biggest loss among its 16 most-active counterparts, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It traded at $1.2308 as of 5:58 p.m. in New York.

Chinese Growth

Chinese economic growth may slow to an annual rate of 7 percent to 8 percent by the end of the year or early 2011, Roubini said today in Sao Paulo. U.S. economic growth may slow to less than 2 percent in the second half of the year, Roubini said.

China's challenge is to boost domestic demand to sustain an economic expansion that has been based so far on investments and exports, he said.

Brazil and India are in a "better shape" than China regarding the strength of domestic demand, Roubini said. Emerging markets can grow between 5 percent and 8 percent during the global economic recovery compared to between 2 percent and 3 percent for rich nations, he said.

He didn't provide further details about his growth outlook for India or China.

China's economic growth accelerated to the fastest pace in almost three years in the first quarter, rising 11.9 percent from a year earlier. India's GDP rose 8.6 percent in the three months ending March 31 from a year earlier, following a revised 6.5 percent gain in the previous quarter, the statistics office in New Dehli said today.

Brazil's GDP may have expanded 8.5 percent on an annual basis in the first quarter, according the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of five analysts. If maintained throughout the year, that would be the fastest growth rate in two decades. Brazil reports first quarter GDP on June 8.

The professor, who is also chairman and co-founder of Roubini Global Economics LLC in New York, failed to predict the market rebound that sent shares across the globe soaring last year. The S&P 500 Index surged 80 percent from a March 2009 low to a peak in April this year.

 

UPDATE 1-Brazil economists see 2010 inflation steadying

SAO PAULO, May 31 (Reuters) - Economists in a weekly central bank survey kept their forecasts for Brazil's benchmark inflation index steady for the first time in almost five months in a sign that inflation expectations are leveling off.

Economists kept their forecast for the benchmark IPCA inflation index steady at 5.67 percent in 2010, after 18 straight weeks of raising projections, the central bank said on Monday.

Building inflation expectations was part of the reason the central bank aggressively hiked its main interest rate in April, which took borrowing costs to 9.5 percent. The bank is expected to continue to raise rates, with the benchmark Selic rate closing the year at 11.75 percent, according to the survey.

Economists raised their expectations for growth in Latin America's largest economy only slightly, betting on an expansion of 6.47 percent against a forecast of 6.46 percent a week ago.

Brazil was among the first countries to emerge from the global financial crisis last year, and many fear its economy could overheat.

For 2011, the inflation estimates were kept at 4.8 percent for a seventh straight week.

The central bank has a 4.5 percent inflation target for 2010 and 2011, plus or minus 2 percentage points. (Reporting by Elzio Barreto and Ana Nicolaci da Costa; Editing by Padraic Cassidy)

 

Brazil stocks gain on thin volume; real stronger

May 31 (Reuters) - Brazilian stocks rose early on Monday as commodity-related shares advanced, with holidays in the United States and the UK thinning trading.

The benchmark Bovespa stock index .BVSP put on 0.84 percent to 62,470.10, after slipping in the previous session on the heels of a choppy week.

"Things are getting attractive again," said Debora Morsch, chief executive of Solidus brokerage. "Foreign investors will be coming back."

Brazilian stocks have suffered as a sovereign debt crisis in Europe led jittery investors to dump riskier assets around the world. The Bovespa index lost almost 14 percent from its close on April 8 through its close on Friday.

Brazil's currency, the real (BRBY), firmed 0.22 percent to 1.806 per dollar, as the greenback crept up against a basket of major currencies .DXY.

On the Bovespa index, heavyweights Vale and Petrobras led gains.

Mining giant Vale (VALE5.SA), the world's largest producer of iron ore, put on 1.55 percent to 42.60 reais. The company will raise iron ore prices about 35 percent to as much as $145 per tonne in July as part of a switch to quarterly pricing, a Brazilian newspaper reported on Sunday. [ID:nN30230578]

Shares of state-controlled energy company Petrobras (PETR4.SA), the most active stock in the index, rose 1.56 percent to 28.64 reais as crude oil CLc1 gained 0.69 percent.

Rival oil and gas company OGX (OGXP3.SA) climbed 0.4 percent to 16.12 reais.

Trade in shares of steelmaker CSN (CSNA3.SA) was suspended in the morning after the exchange asked the company for more information about a debt dispute.

Rival steelmaker Gerdau (GGBR4.SA) advanced 2 percent to 24.91 reais. Usiminas (USIM5.SA) traded up 0.29 percent to 45.43. Technical problems at the Sao Paulo exchange kept interest rate futures contracts <0#DIJ:> from trading early in the session.

The yield on the contract due January 2011 DIJF1 edged down to 10.98 percent from 10.99 percent shortly after opening.

A weekly central bank survey showed that inflation expectations in Brazil could be leveling off.

Local economists kept their forecasts for the year-end benchmark IPCA consumer price index steady, at 5.67 percent, for the first time after 18 weeks of raising their forecasts. [ID:nN31137396]

Nevertheless, that forecast is still above the central bank's 2010 inflation target of 4.5 percent, plus or minus 2 percentage points.

 

Roubini voices caution about Brazil's speedy growth

May 31, 2010 4:12pm | by Jonathan Wheatley

 

Nouriel Roubini has become the latest economist to call for fresh capital controls in Brazil to prevent further appreciation of the country's currency, the real, which is widely regarded as overvalued.

Roubini - famous for being one of the few economists to foresee the global financial crisis - told a conference in São Paulo today the high value of the real was damaging Brazil's export competitiveness. "If capital controls were used intelligently, it would be possible to avoid a greater evil," he said. Brazil most recently imposed capital controls last October when it put a 2 per cent tax on short-term capital flows to try to slow the floods of foreign capital entering the country to take advantage of its high interest rates and strong domestic growth story.

There has been speculation that fresh measures could be in preparation but, so far, the government has resisted anything that could undermine investor confidence.

Roubini also joined those saying Brazil is growing too quickly and will need politically difficult structural reforms to raise its potential or non-inflationary growth rate above 4 or 5 per cent a year. Economists have been arguing for years that Brazil needs to trim its bloated public sector and direct spending to investment, reduce its high tax burden and tackle other issues such as its rigid labour regime.

He said current growth of about 7 per cent a year was unsustainable but would be possible for a decade if reforms were enacted. He also pointed to the need for investment in social goods. "The best investments for the poor are in education and health," he told the conference.

 

Raid Jeopardizes Turkey Relations

By SABRINA TAVERNISE | Published: May 31, 2010

 

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday cut short a trip to Canada after the Israeli raid on a Gaza-bound aid flotilla.

 

ISTANBUL — The Israeli commando raid on Monday on an aid flotilla, which left at least nine people dead, has dragged relations between Israel and Turkey to a new low, political experts here say, threatening to derail diplomatic relations between two close American allies.

Turkey, a NATO member, has long been Israel's closest friend in the Muslim world, with $2.5 billion in trade in 2009 and strong ties between the countries' militaries and governments. But relations began to deteriorate during Israel's war in Gaza, when Turkey's prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, publicly sparred with Israel's president, Shimon Peres, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

Monday's raid on the Gaza-bound aid flotilla, which was sponsored in part by a Turkish organization, prompted street protests in Turkey and a strong official reaction, with Ankara recalling its ambassador from Israel, summoning Israel's ambassador and canceling planned joint military exercises. That was enough to raise alarms among analysts here, who said it could seriously jeopardize already battered diplomatic relations between the countries.

"This will be perceived as a kind of declaration of war on Turkey," said Cengiz Candar, a columnist for Radikal, a Turkish daily. "Political dialogue will cease. It's not possible to contain the deterioration in relations anymore."

But it was not yet clear how broad the implications would be. As of Monday evening, Israel's ambassador to Turkey had not been asked to leave the country, and Turkey's foreign minister spoke by phone to Israel's defense minister — evidence that, at least at some level, diplomatic channels remained open. The leaders of the two countries' militaries also spoke by telephone, the Turkish military said.

A senior Turkish official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly on the matter, said it was possible that Turkey would cut off diplomatic relations, but that such a move would depend on Israel's next steps. Turkey expects the immediate release of the activists on board the ships, the official said, as well as a strong apology from the Israeli government. Neither has been forthcoming, and there were reports late Monday that Israel had arrested some people from the ship.

A senior Israeli official said that Israel had tried for two weeks to persuade Turkey to stop the flotilla's voyage, but that Turkey said it was a nongovernmental action that it was powerless to stop. Israel's ambassador in Turkey, Gabi Levy, did not return a call for comment.

One wild card is Mr. Erdogan, a strong-willed former Islamist who is the driving force behind Turkey's criticism of Israel and its policy toward the Palestinians. He has pushed a foreign policy that has taken a more active role in the region, serving as mediator between Israel and Syria. But the United States has not appreciated all his efforts, like his recent attempt with Brazil to broker a nuclear deal with Iran.

In a news conference in Santiago, Chile, where he cut short a trip to return to Turkey, he called the raid "inhumane state terrorism," and said that Israel's contentions that there had been weapons on the ships were "lies."

"This attack has clearly shown that the Israeli government has no desire for peace in the region," he said in remarks that were broadcast on Turkish television. But he also called for calm, saying that Jews in Turkey "are our citizens," and adding that "I want my people to be very sensitive about this."

The situation is difficult for the United States, which has close relations with both countries and is now in the awkward position of devising a reaction that avoids alienating either side. Both the United States and Israel use Turkish airspace for military exercises. The United States transports the majority of supplies for Iraq from a military base in southern Turkey.

Asli Aydintasbas, a columnist at the Turkish daily Milliyet, argues that the episode was a striking failure in diplomacy, for both the United States and Turkey. The new foreign policy pursued by Turkey's government has given it a confidence that sometimes results in overreaching. For example, Turkey believed it could change Israeli policies toward Gaza.

"This was a disaster waiting to happen," Ms. Aydintasbas said. "Both Turkish and American officials could have stopped the boats from moving forward. It's clear they didn't try hard enough."

Mr. Erdogan is seen favorably by many in Turkey's small Jewish community. He encouraged the relationship with Israel, visiting in 2005 with a group of Turkish businessmen. He was the first Turkish prime minister to visit the office of Turkey's chief rabbi, after a synagogue was bombed in 2003.

But when it comes to Hamas, which controls Gaza, they disagree. Israel views Hamas as a terrorist group and focuses on its doctrinal commitment to destroy the Zionist state. Mr. Erdogan sees other aspects: Hamas began as a grass-roots Islamic movement, and like his own Justice and Development Party, also Islamic-inspired, it was democratically elected against overwhelming odds.

One Turkish tactic will be to try to garner international condemnation in order to change Israeli policies toward Gaza, namely its blockade, Turkish analysts said. Turkey's foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, flew to New York to spearhead Turkey's efforts to call for a vote on the matter in the United Nations. Turkey became a member of the Security Council last year.

Mr. Candar, the columnist, views the future of relations grimly. The raid provoked outrage among the Turkish public — in Istanbul, crowds thronged Taksim Square and tried to storm the Israeli Consulate — sentiment that Mr. Erdogan could capitalize on in national elections next year.

The current governments in Israel and Turkey seem stuck in a cycle of hostility, and Mr. Candar does not see that changing. "As long as this government is in power and the one in Israel is in power," he said, "it will be a hostile relationship, not even a neutral one."

Sebnem Arsu contributed reporting from Istanbul, and Ethan Bronner from Washington.

 

El proteccionismo del Gobierno huele a viejo
Las marchas y contramarchas sobre la importación de alimentos delatan un sistema anacrónico que sólo puede acarrear perjuicios y represalias.

01/06/10

Pese a que la prohibición de importar alimentos , concretada por la Secretaría de Comercio sin una norma nacional clara y en violación de normas internacionales como las del Mercosur y de la Organización Mundial del Comercio (OMC), fue desmentida por la Presidenta de la Nación en Madrid, subsisten algunos interrogantes.

¿Se mantendrá la prohibición al menos de manera parcial? ¿Se retomará más adelante? Es deseable que esto no ocurra, porque puede traernos severos perjuicios . Si hubiera represalias , como anunciaron varios países, la Argentina resultaría muy dañada, ya que, por caso, a Brasil exportamos más de cuatro veces lo que importamos. Si ese país cerrara las importaciones de la Argentina, como pidió la candidata presidencial oficialista Dilma Rousseff, el resultado sería como en una pelea en la que nosotros tirásemos con una gomera y nos respondieran con un cañonazo.

Al margen de lo que finalmente ocurra, la cuestión lleva al tema de fondo sobre el proteccionismo que fue invocado por los funcionarios al defender la medida . Sin duda una noción anacrónica del proteccionismo, ya que ha pasado mucha agua bajo los puentes desde el clásico debate entre protección y libre cambio, que la Argentina dirimió erróneamente en el siglo XIX y nos hizo perder el tren que en cambio tomó Estados Unidos que protegió su industria. Lo mismo respecto del proteccionismo de mediados del siglo XX que condujo no al desarrollo sino a una sustitución de importaciones que finalmente entró en crisis por la necesidad de importar bienes intermedios, equipos y otros insumos.

A mi juicio, es necesario proteger a la industria nacional y los resultados negativos del neoliberalismo del noventa refuerzan esa convicción. Pero no hay que ignorar el dato de los cambios producidos en la escena mundial a partir del multilateralismo y la globalización , que han generado un mundo sumamente intercomunicado y abierto . Ya los cierres de importaciones o los aranceles fuera de las reglas de la OMC han devenido anacrónicos, son inviables y no traen otra cosa que perjuicios a la industria y al país.

Para proteger el trabajo argentino hacen falta mecanismos más sofisticados, en especial medidas internas que impulsen la competitividad de las empresas. Pero yendo más al fondo de la cuestión, cabe decir que el proteccionismo en sí, sea del viejo o del nuevo cuño, es un aspecto muy limitado .

Sólo una política de desarrollo genuinamente protege a la industria .

La protección es sólo un punto y no el más importante, junto a las políticas activas de inversión, la generación de polos de desarrollo y la integración de los sectores productivos y las regiones. Sólo con una economía desarrollada la industria tendrá una protección que hoy no tiene, ya que la incorporación de tecnologías, una infraestructura eficiente y producción en escala son los factores que elevarán la competitividad industrial del país.

A partir de ello serán innecesarias las medidas defensivas y estaremos en condiciones de que nuestra industria salga agresivamente al mundo para afirmarse y crecer.