Latin America Helps Shape Global Economic Recovery
May 24, 2010
Latin America has emerged from the global economic crisis in relatively good shape, and will be an important player to help rebuild the world economy, IMF officials say as Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn embarks on a week-long trip to the region.
Strauss-Kahn, who arrives in Brazil on May 25 and will also visit Peru, will reinforce the changing image of the IMF in Latin America, talk with political and business leaders as well as students, and promote the role of the IMF in harnessing global cooperation.
"We managed to overcome the first part of the crisis thanks to the unprecedented level of economic cooperation among the big countries, not only in the G-20 group of advanced and emerging economies, but in the G-20 plus," Strauss-Kahn told reporters before leaving.
Region bounces back from crisis
Latin America weathered the recent global economic crisis much better than in the past, thanks to stronger policies already in place and healthier economies that were more prepared for the downturn. Compared to other emerging economies, Latin America did better than many.
The IMF was able to support the region during the global economic crisis by quickly providing a new Flexible Credit Line (FCL) to emerging economies with solid policy track records. Mexico and Colombia each requested and received access to rapid funding, which neither country has needed to draw on.
Not only has the region emerged more quickly from the downturn than have advanced economies, but social costs in the region were more muted. In the larger Latin American economies, unemployment rose about 2 percentage points. In the United States, by contrast, unemployment rose 5.5 percentage points.
"This time around many things were saved – jobs, families, opportunities for children to get an education, as well as public spending and the ability to continue investing in infrastructure, health, and education," said Nicolas Eyzaguirre, head of the IMF's Western Hemisphere Department, in an interview with IMF Survey online.
While most advanced economies are projected to grow slowly in coming years, the prospects for Latin America are rosier. The regional economy contracted by 1.8 percent in 2009, but is expected to grow by about 4 percent in 2010, perhaps even a little more, which would keep pace with growth projections for the global economy.
Brazil has a key role to play in the global economy, including as a member of the G-20 advanced and emerging economies. As the IMF moves forward with reforms to its own governance structure, Brazil's influence will be part of the successful process of change within the institution.
In recent years, Peru and Brazil have made significant social progress, thanks to strong output and employment growth, and by investing in social safety nets to combat poverty and inequality. During the economic crisis, timely policy actions limited the fallout from the global crisis, while social safety nets provided an important lifeline.
Student townhall dialog
During his visit, Strauss-Kahn will take part in a high-level televised debate in Sao Paulo, Brazil on "the Global Economy in a Post-Crisis World," produced by GloboNews. Panelists will include Armínio Fraga Neto, the head of Brazil-based hedge fund Gávea Investment, which manages $5.8 billion in investments, and Maurício Botelho, president of business consulting firm Mogno and chairman of the board of the aviation company Embraer.
In Brasilia, Strauss-Kahn will meet with Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and with Finance Minister Guido Mantega.
Strauss-Kahn will then visit Lima, Peru where he will meet with President Alan Garcia and with Finance Minister Mercedes Araoz, as well as Central Bank Governor Julio Velarde.
A townhall-style discussion between Strauss-Kahn and university students at the Universidad San Marcos in Lima will cap the outreach campaign, Ask the IMF, with students from Peru and five other Latin American countries discussing issues of importance for the region, including global financial reforms, the effects on Latin America of the Greek crisis, and how to create sustainable economic growth.
Strauss-Kahn will also appear in a televised round table discussion with several regional finance ministers to discuss global challenges ahead of his address to the meeting of finance ministers of the Americas and Caribbean on May 28.
Look to the developing world
By Robert Zoellick
Published: May 24 2010 20:53 | Last updated: May 24 2010 20:53
Riots, debts and the creeping fear of a looming Lost Decade – no wonder there is pessimism in Europe. But what we are seeing is not just "financial crisis, part two"; it is "sustainable growth challenge, part one". The difference has implications for policy. Get the diagnosis wrong and the wrong treatment will follow.
The €750bn ($944bn, £652bn) package to defend the euro buys time. But it is not enough. So far, the world has focused on fiscal contraction and debt, but these are only half the story. The world and Europe also need a return to robust growth. Without it the fiscal adjustments will be more painful and the politics more unmanageable.
In the 1980s, when Latin America was overwhelmed by huge debts, the work-out involved rollovers of bank loans, fiscal tightening, funding from the International Monetary Fund and World Bank and policies to invigorate sustainable growth. Eventually, some debt was restructured. Some developed economies now face a similar problem: living beyond their means. But we face the added complication that weaknesses in parts of Europe can infect the European Union's monetary, credit and even fiscal systems, with dangerous consequences.
To avoid a decade-long work-out – with political and economic risks – the world needs stronger growth in developing and developed countries. We are seeing a shift towards a new multi-polar global economy, with better prospects in developing countries than in developed ones. The World Bank projects growth in developing economies of about 6 per cent this year and next – more than twice that of high-income countries. Since 2000, developing countries have accounted for more than half the rise in global demand for imports.
This is not about winners taking all. An acceleration of this shift can help developed countries work out their problems while building a better-balanced global system. A dollar spent on investment goods in developing countries can yield 35 cents worth of demand for capital goods produced in high-income countries, precisely the kind of high-value goods that generate well-paying jobs.
Drawing on China's experience in the late 1990s, some developing countries are boosting growth prospects through infrastructure to increase productivity. Countries throughout east and south Asia, Latin America and the Arab world are investing in transport, energy, water and urban centres, opening opportunities for sales of capital goods and services. They are experimenting with private capital and management in infrastructure, privatisation of assets and private sector delivery of public services.
Growth can be achieved through policy changes without government money. India's remarkable growth since the 1990s has combined manufacturing gains with service sector reforms. A World Bank study of 4,000 Indian companies from 1993 to 2005 shows that reforms in banking, telecoms and transport raised manufacturing productivity. Policy changes in Africa encouraged the private sector to invest more than $60bn in technology, bringing 65 per cent of Africans in reach of wireless voice services.
Financial crises can spur reform. Last year as developed economies focused on Keynesian changes in demand, Asia-Pacific economies were advancing reforms – especially in services – to generate higher growth. As developed economies focused on financial regulation and a broader reregulatory movement, Asians were considering how deregulation might foster innovation and jobs.
Developing countries have understood that a sustainable recovery depends on reviving the private sector. Businesses will invest if the policy environment enables them to turn a profit. More governments implemented regulatory reforms to make it easier to do business in 2009 than in any year since 2004, with nearly 300 reforms registered worldwide. Most occurred in developing economies.
In "sustainable growth challenge, part one", it is not about unmitigated austerity, but finding sustainable paths to prosperity. The EU and developed countries elsewhere need more than fiscal stringency, especially if achieved by piling on more taxes. They need to seize opportunities from growth in developing countries to avoid their own lost decade. There is a broader lesson: in 2008, the crisis was US-led; in 2010, it is European. For both the US and Europe, it is developing countries that point to the way ahead. It is time we took note.
Tiny and expensive, the 'cult' 500 helps Fiat play the long game in Brazil
May 24, 2010 6:43pm
For a fast-growing country in the midst of a car-buying boom, Brazil has surprisingly few luxury cars prowling its streets.
Sure, you will find Bimmers, Audis and Land Rovers in the swankier parts of São Paulo - but nowhere near the number you see in Shanghai or even Moscow.
Take for example Fiat's tiny 500 or Cinquecento, which sells for an eye-watering BRL60,000 ($32,400) or more in Brazil - more than twice what the car fetches in Europe, where it has gained a name as an icon of affordable style.
Why is the 500 so expensive, especially given Fiat's commanding position in Brazil, where it sells one in four of the cars and light trucks on the road - more, even, than it does in Italy?
Fiat doesn't make the car in Brazil, and so has to ship the car from Tychy, Poland. Once it gets to Brazil, like all imports the Cinquecento faces a 35 per cent import tax.
But more to the point, why does Fiat sell the 500 in Brazil at all? The car is promoted heavily in ads and on billboards across the country. Yet a company official acknowledges Fiat sells just 2,000 or so 500s a year - a tiny fraction of its top-selling economy models like the Fabio and the Uno.
The Cinquecento, he says, is a "cult" car it sells to burnish Fiat's overall brand, much the way Volkswagen sells modest numbers of its pricey Beetles in Brazil, but makes its money on cheap-and-cheerful Gols.
Fiat may be playing a long game here, though. Chrysler, its US alliance partner, is due to begin making the 500 in Mexico for the US market later this year.
Once that happens, the 500 can come to Brazil via a shorter trip, and - and because of the two countries' free-trade agreement, will get in without import tax. So count on the 500's lofty price coming down closer to where it belongs in Brazil - by "at least" a third, the Fiat official says.
Brazil set to become fourth-largest vehicle market
By John Reed in São Paulo
Published: May 24 2010 19:12 | Last updated: May 25 2010 11:22
Brazil is on track to overtake Germany as the world's fourth-largest vehicle market this year, as demand for cars in the country continues to surge past developed countries, carmakers and industry analysts say.
The country's resource-fuelled economic expansion has spurred strong growth in car buying over the past year that has outlasted the expiration of tax incentives introduced after the financial crisis in late 2008, which lapsed in March.
Volkswagen, the second-biggest carmaker in the country after Italy's Fiat, expects the market to grow 7 per cent this year, and said it could surpass Germany on total vehicle sales.
"This year depends on how the market in Europe goes," said Thomas Schmall, president of VW do Brasil. "It might be the same, but Brazil might overtake Germany."
General Motors, the third-largest carmaker in Brazil, is forecasting total industry sales of about 3.3m vehicles this year, a 5 per cent increase on a year ago.
Jaime Ardile, head of GM's Brazilian operation, said: "We believe 5 per cent annual growth is sustainable for Brazil over the next five years, with some upside given by the soccer world cup in 2014 and Olympic Games in 2016.
"This could make Brazil the fourth-largest auto industry in the world after China, the US and Japan."
The rise of Brazil in the industry reflects the migration of production capacity and investment from saturated developed countries to faster-growing emerging ones.
PwC expects Germany's light-vehicle market to decline by about 20 per cent this year to 3.18m from just under 4m last year, and Brazil's to grow by about 8 per cent to 3.3m.
Michael Gartside, senior analyst with PwC Autofacts, said: "If you take the light-vehicle market, we expect Brazil to overtake Germany this year".
But on car sales alone – excluding light commercial vehicles – Germany would still be a larger market than Brazil, he said.
Global carmakers are reporting that some of their biggest profits come from Brazil amid strong economic growth, expanding credit and growing demand for entry-level cars from people new to the middle class.
However, Brazil's four big incumbent carmakers – Fiat, VW, GM and Ford Motor – face increasing competition from Asian producers. South Korea's Hyundai and China's Chery Automobile both plan to build plants in Brazil. The strong Brazilian currency is fuelling expanding sales of imported cars.
Mr Schmall said VW aimed to outsell Fiat – which sells one in four light vehicles in Brazil – as the market leader by 2011, depending on how fast the market grew.
Le Brésil de Lula sur tous les fronts
Mis à jour le 24.05.10
Lula par-ci, Brésil par-là ! Le monde bruisse des déclarations du président brésilien et des hauts faits pas seulement footballistisques de ses concitoyens.
On a entendu Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva tancer l'Allemagne pour ses réticences à sauver la Grèce, et proposer sa médiation dans le conflit israélo-palestinien.
On l'a vu essayer de désamorcer avec les Turcs le dossier nucléaire iranien, et soutenir les Argentins dans leur conflit contre les Britanniques à propos des Malouines et de leur pétrole.
Mais "l'homme le plus populaire du monde", selon Barack Obama, ne s'appuie pas seulement sur son charisme pour parler haut et fort. Il incarne un Brésil en pleine forme qui, après un passage à vide dû à la crise, talonne la Chine et l'Inde en termes de croissance.
Petrobras, le groupe pétrolier qui est l'entreprise la plus lucrative d'Amérique latine, Vale, leader mondial du fer, l'avionneur Embraer qui pourrait bien damer le pion à Boeing et Airbus avant longtemps, ne sont que les fleurons d'une économie industrielle de premier ordre.
Côté agricole, la montée en puissance est comparable, et a valu au Brésil le titre de "grenier du monde". Soja, sucre, éthanol, café, fruits, coton, poulets, etc. en font un concurrent redoutable pour les éleveurs européens.
C'est en 2008 que le Brésil a pris conscience de ses capacités économiques. Jusque-là, il négociait à l'Organisation mondiale du commerce, mais de façon un peu frileuse. La crise partie des Etats-Unis et l'effondrement de la production industrielle des pays dits avancés l'ont persuadé que l'heure était à l'offensive.
Désormais, c'est le Brésil, brillamment représenté par son ministre des affaires étrangères, Celso Amorim, qui pousse le plus fort pour une conclusion des négociations du cycle de Doha. En comparaison, les Etats-Unis semblent englués dans un protectionnisme d'un autre temps.
Moins redouté que la Chine ou l'Inde, milliardaires en population, mieux considéré qu'une Russie rentière de ses matières premières, le Brésil est le véritable porte-parole de ces économies émergentes qui tirent la croissance mondiale. L'axe économique du monde se déplaçant vers le Sud, il peut réclamer à bon droit que ceux qui se substituent ainsi aux pays du Nord en panne de vitalité soient mieux représentés dans les instances internationales, à commencer par la Banque mondiale et le Fonds monétaire international (FMI). Sans oublier le Conseil de sécurité de l'ONU, au sein duquel le Brésil souhaite détenir un siège de membre permanent.
Parce que "le XXIe siècle sera le siècle des pays qui n'ont pas eu leur chance", et parce qu'il s'estime personnellement "à la moitié de [son] parcours politique", Lula (65 ans) pourrait présenter sa candidature au secrétariat général de l'ONU en 2012. Il devrait aussi militer pour améliorer le G20, dont il juge l'influence "très faible".
On n'a pas fini d'entendre l'ancien métallo, ami des favelas et des investisseurs. On n'a pas fini d'entendre parler d'un Brésil à l'aube de ses "trente glorieuses".
Le Brésil tente de contrôler l'envolée de sa croissance
Mis à jour le 24.05.10
Allegro ma non troppo : tel est le tempo que le gouvernement brésilien souhaite imprimer à la croissance de l'économie nationale. Or, depuis quelques mois, celle-ci progresse trop vite et court les risques d'une surchauffe à la chinoise.
Frappé tardivement par la crise mondiale, le Brésil fut l'un des premiers pays à s'en délivrer. Et de quelle manière ! Après avoir subi un léger recul du produit intérieur brut (PIB) de 0,2 % en 2009, son économie caracole à nouveau, et plus rapidement qu'avant la crise.
Selon une projection de la banque centrale, la croissance a fait un bond de 9,84 % au cours du premier trimestre par rapport à la même période de 2009, et de 2,38 % par rapport à la période octobre-décembre 2009. L'économie pourrait croître de 6 % à 7,5 % en 2010, un record sur les vingt-cinq dernières années.
Les signes de surchauffe sont visibles. Principal moteur de la croissance, la consommation intérieure tourne à plein régime. Elle est entretenue par la fièvre d'achats des quelque 25 millions de Brésiliens qui ont depuis dix ans rejoint la classe moyenne et découvert les charmes du crédit. Au premier trimestre, le commerce a augmenté de 13 %.
En trois mois, le Brésil a créé près d'un million d'emplois. Il devrait en créer 2,5 millions en 2010 sur un marché qui reste tendu à cause de la pénurie de main-d'oeuvre qualifiée dans certains secteurs en plein essor, comme l'industrie pétrolière. De janvier à mars, plus de 11 000 visas de travail ont été accordés à des étrangers, un chiffre en hausse de 16 %.
Les importations destinées à satisfaire la demande intérieure en biens d'équipement et en produits industriels devraient, pour la première fois depuis 2000, dépasser les exportations, constituées, pour l'essentiel, de matières premières agricoles et minières, notamment à destination de la Chine, premier client du Brésil.
Pour prévenir l'aggravation du déficit de la balance des paiements, le gouvernement vient d'adopter une série de mesures d'aide aux exportateurs, pénalisés de surcroît par la trop forte valeur du real, la monnaie nationale.
Mais ce qui inquiète surtout les dirigeants, c'est le réveil de l'inflation, ce fléau qui a tant ravagé l'économie du Brésil dans le passé. La hausse des prix atteint 5,3 % depuis un an, et devrait être de 5,5 % en 2010, soit un point de plus que l'objectif officiel (4,5 %). Pour le président, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, il est politiquement impératif de contenir l'inflation, la pire ennemie des pauvres.
D'où la décision prise par la banque centrale, fin avril, de relever de 0,75 point son taux directeur, à 9,50 %. Une première depuis près de deux ans, qui devrait être suivie par d'autres augmentations. Avec pour souci d'agir en douceur pour ne pas trop "refroidir" l'économie.
Cette mesure ponctuellement indispensable ne remet pas en question, à long terme, la baisse progressive des taux qui, en termes réels, sont passés de 20 % en 2003 à 5 % aujourd'hui. Ces taux restent très attractifs pour les spéculateurs étrangers, séduits par le Brésil, depuis que les agences de notation en ont fait, en 2008, un "pays sûr".
En 2010, les investissements directs étrangers devraient atteindre le chiffre record de 45 milliards de dollars. A la Bourse de Sao Paulo, ils sont supérieurs aux investissements des institutions et des personnes physiques.
Et pourtant, si le Brésil approche de la surchauffe, c'est qu'il n'investit pas assez dans son appareil productif. Il épargne également trop peu : 19 % de son PIB (contre 40 % en Chine). Luciano Coutinho, président de la Banque de développement économique et social (BNDES), estime à 25 % les taux d'investissement et d'épargne souhaitables pour que le Brésil puisse affronter une croissance annuelle de 10 %.
Cet argent devrait financer le développement des infrastructures, notamment routières et portuaires, qui saturent, et l'amélioration de l'enseignement public et professionnel, dont la faiblesse limite les gains de productivité. Faute de quoi, le pays risque de manquer encore plus de machines, d'espace et de main-d'oeuvre qualifiée.
En attendant, pour freiner la demande, le gouvernement a aboli les "carottes" fiscales instaurées pendant la récession pour doper la consommation. Il a annoncé 17 milliards de dollars (13,3 milliards d'euros) de coupes dans les dépenses publiques. Mais, sur ce terrain de l'austérité, sa marge de manoeuvre budgétaire est réduite en cette année d'élection présidentielle.
Il y a quelques jours, à Madrid, le président Lula célébrait "le moment magique" que vit l'économie brésilienne. Pour que cette magie dure, il n'est ni souhaitable ni raisonnable que celle-ci croisse cette année au-delà de 6 %.
"Nous ne voulons pas voler au-delà de ce qui était programmé", résumait le ministre de la planification, Paulo Bernardo. Rassurant, le ministre de l'économie, Guido Mantega, rajoutait en plaisantant : "Après tout, contrôler la surchauffe est une tâche plutôt agréable." Une tâche que beaucoup de ses homologues, ici ou là, lui envient.
Iran Deal Seen as Spot on Brazilian Leader's Legacy
By ALEXEI BARRIONUEVO | Published: May 24, 2010
SÃO PAULO — When the Brazilian president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, went to Tehran two weeks ago, he was hoping to defuse a seemingly intractable crisis over Iran's nuclear program and cement his reputation as an international statesman.
But after Brazil and Turkey forged a deal with Iran to exchange uranium, Mr. da Silva returned home to a cloud of criticism by opinion-makers and lawmakers who questioned whether the mission had been naïve, or worse, detrimental to the nation's standing.
Some argued that Iran had used him to stall for more time to develop nuclear arms. Others fretted that he had damaged Brazil's relationship with the United States, and that its own nuclear program could now come under greater scrutiny by atomic energy regulators.
What could have been one of Mr. da Silva's crowning achievements as president of a country ascending on the global stage was being characterized as a misstep that could dent the legacy of the popular president.
"The most charitable interpretation is that we were naïve," said Amaury de Souza, a political analyst in Rio de Janeiro. But "in a game like this, being labeled naïve just shows you have a third-rate diplomacy."
Brazil and Turkey helped broker an agreement under which Iran agreed to send uranium enriched at a low level abroad, reviving parts of a fuel swap plan proposed in October. But despite the deal, Iranian officials said they planned to continue enriching uranium.
Brazilian officials claimed to be caught flat-footed by that statement, dismissing it as pandering to Iran's domestic constituency.
Washington quickly rejected the deal as a delaying tactic, and the United Nations Security Council's five permanent members agreed on a draft resolution for new sanctions against Iran.
But Brazilian officials have continued to vigorously defend the accord, with the nation's foreign minister, Celso Amorim, saying Friday that it was not too late. "Many things still need to happen," he told reporters. "It's difficult, but there is a way out."
Ali Asghar Soltanieh, the Iranian ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, confirmed that his country had officially notified the agency about the nuclear agreement with a letter on Monday.
"We expect to turn from a course of confrontation to cooperation and come to a negotiating table," he said in an interview.
Brazilian officials have called the negative response by American officials hypocritical. An adviser to Mr. da Silva said Monday that in the days leading up to Mr. da Silva's trip to Iran, President Obama sent a letter to the Brazilian leader outlining "various points that were very similar to what ended up in the agreement."
Ban Ki-moon, the United Nations secretary general, said Monday that Iran moving forward on the deal with Brazil and Turkey could be a step toward a negotiated settlement. But the basic problem, he said, was the lack of confidence on both sides.
If Western powers continue to dismiss the deal, the repercussions could be serious for Brazil's reputation, political analysts said, with some warning that it could invite further scrutiny of Brazil's own nuclear program.
Brazil, with France's assistance, is building a nuclear-powered submarine. It is widely recognized as abiding by the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, allowing regular inspections by the I.A.E.A., and the nation prohibited the development of nuclear weapons in its most recent constitution. But Brazil has refused to sign an additional protocol of the treaty that would allow for more intrusive inspections.
Even before Mr. da Silva's visit to Tehran, a former foreign minister, Luiz Felipe Lampreia, said the efforts at diplomacy with Iran could "cause incalculable material and political losses" and raise suspicions about Brazil's own nuclear program.
"It is like the person who crosses the street on purpose to step on a banana peel on the opposite sidewalk," Mr. Lampreia wrote in the newspaper O Globo.
It did not help that after the signing in Tehran, Brazil's vice president, José Alencar, restated a position he has taken before: that Brazil should have the right to develop a nuclear weapon as an "instrument of dissuasion."
Despite the concerns, many Brazilians noted that Mr. da Silva had taken the international stage and waded into a top priority of the American agenda.
"President Lula ignored the critics and decided Brazil had as much right and legitimate interests to engage in this issue as the U.S. and other major players," said Paulo Sotero, director of the Brazil Institute at the Woodrow Wilson Center.
Brazil's attempts to win over the Iranians have not always played well at home. After Brazil's minister of commerce jovially offered the yellow jersey of Brazil's national soccer team to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Tehran last month, Clóvis Rossi, a respected columnist, wrote that the Brazilian jersey was "covered in blood" from Iranian dissidents killed by the Islamic government.
But many Brazilians seem proud to see Mr. da Silva mixing with world leaders. A poll in March by CNI/Ipope found that 48 percent of Brazilians polled remembered nothing specific about what he was doing. But 46 percent recalled his trips abroad.
Mr. Sotero said Mr. da Silva's legacy is most likely assured. But as for ties between Brazil and the United States, "We won't know the extent of the damage to the bilateral relationship for a while."
Clinton and Geithner Face Hurdles in China Talks
BEIJING — China and the United States opened three days of high-level meetings here on Monday meant to broaden and deepen the ties between the world's largest developed and developing economies.
But the opening session instead laid bare a recurring theme between Beijing and Washington: the United States came with a long wish list for China on both economic and security issues, while China mostly wants to be left alone to pursue policies that are turning it into an economic superpower.
President Hu Jintao, welcoming the 200-strong American delegation in the Great Hall of the People, praised the "mutually beneficial and win-win cooperation" between the United States and China. Such coordination, he said, had helped speed the recovery from the 2008 financial crisis.
On the crucial issue of China revaluing its currency — something the Obama administration had pushed for — Mr. Hu repeated China's past promises to make its effectively fixed exchange rate respond more to the market, but the fact that the country's top leader mentioned reform at all suggested it is on the leadership's agenda.
Still, Mr. Hu also repeated that Beijing would move "under the principle of independent decision-making, controllability, and gradual progress." Translation: China alone will determine the timing of any such move.
Economists said the deepening debt crisis in Greece, which came up immediately in the discussions on Monday, would make Beijing more reluctant to allow its currency to appreciate in value in the immediate future.
Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner did not mention China's currency in his opening remarks, though he did allude to it in subsequent sessions. The administration has decided not to prod Beijing at this meeting, officials said, concluding that it would resist outside pressure.
The United States is hitting similar hurdles on security issues. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton
pressed China to support measures against North Korea following the strong evidence that it torpedoed a South Korean warship in March. But China has been skeptical of North Korea's role and is reluctant to punish the North, with which it has close ties.
And while China agreed to a watered-down United Nations resolution on Iran's nuclear program, it has not signed off on amendments against specific Iranian citizens and companies. With big planned investments in Iran's oil and gas industry, China may well be in business with some of them.
In her speech to the opening session, Mrs. Clinton cited Iran and North Korea as issues in which Beijing and Washington must find common cause. "Today, we face another serious challenge provoked by the sinking of the South Korean ship," she said. "So we must work together, again, to address this challenge and advance our shared objectives of peace and stability."
A spokesman for the Foreign Ministry, Ma Zhaoxu, was noncommittal, saying of the Korea crisis, "We hope all the relevant parties will exercise restraint and remain cool-headed."
Some of this is cultural, to be sure. Chinese officials tend to speak far less directly than Americans. Mr. Hu did not mention Iran and North Korea, referring to regional "hot spots." The fact that he frankly addressed the exchange rate of China's currency, the renminbi, surprised some observers, and lent itself to varying interpretations.
For some experts, Mr. Hu's pledge to "steadily advance the reform mechanism of the RMB exchange rate," without repeating his previous references to the rate being "basically stable," was a sign of conciliation. "It's important, the fact they haven't mentioned it," said Ben Simpfendorfer, the China economist for the Royal Bank of Scotland.
But others interpreted it as a pre-emptive move to take the issue off the table. Eswar Prasad, an economist at Cornell University, noted that the crisis in Greece had rattled the Chinese on two levels. It was likely to curb their exports to Europe, and it had strengthened the renminbi relative to the swooning euro, which makes Chinese goods more costly in foreign markets.
"That double hit on China's exports almost certainly means that they're not going to move forward unless there is evidence of stabilization in the euro and stabilization in Europe's recovery," Mr. Prasad said.
A senior Chinese official said that Beijing would keep a "high alert and attention on the euro zone sovereign debt crisis." He noted that it could affect not only Europe's economic recovery but also Chinese exports. China exports more to the European Union than to the United States.
The United States needed a 48-vehicle motorcade to ferry its delegation to this second round of the so-called strategic and economic dialogue. Among the prominent names: the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben S. Bernanke, the commander of the military's Pacific Command, Adm. Robert F. Willard, and the secretary of health and human services, Kathleen Sebelius.
Some of the topics under discussion veered far from economics and security. Mrs. Clinton singled out Melanne Verveer, the State Department's ambassador at large for women's issues, who is meeting with Chinese women's groups to discuss their progress in women's rights.
Mr. Geithner lobbied against Chinese government procurement rules giving preference to products with intellectual property developed in China. American businesses, particularly in technology, say this handicaps them and deprives China of state-of-the-art products. "Innovation flourishes best when markets are open, competition is fair, and strong protections exist for ideas and inventions," he said.
The Chinese have their pet issues as well: Beijing is pushing Washington to loosen controls on exports of high-technology equipment with potential military applications. A raft of questions from reporters for state-run Chinese media organizations suggested a coordinated campaign.
If American officials seemed likely to leave China with many of their wishes unfulfilled, there was one notable difference in this year's meeting compared to the one last year in Washington: the American economy is growing again, which gave Mr. Geithner a rare chance to crow a bit.
Rather than identify the United States with the troubled economies of Europe, Mr. Geithner said the United States was holding its own with emerging economies like Brazil, India, and China.
"Economic growth in the U.S. and China is broader and stronger than many had anticipated, even a few months ago," he said.
Brasil está em todas as frentes, diz Le Monde
O vespertino francês Le Monde traz em sua edição desta segudna-feira, um grande editorial na capa sobre o papel de destaque alcançado pela diplomacia brasileira durante o governo Lula. Em tom elogioso, o jornal diz que a atuação do ministro brasileiro das Relações Exteriores, Celso Amorim, é brilhante. E, nas páginas internas, o crescimento excepional do PIB brasileiro atrai a curiosidade do jornal. Segundo previsão divulgada hoje pelo Banco Central do Brasil, a economia deve crescer 6,46% neste ano.
O editoral do jornal Le Monde não poupa elogios à economia brasileira e ao papel do Brasil na cena internacional. O vespertino lembra os pronunciamentos do presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva diante da crise grega e suas iniciativas de mediação no conflito israelo-palestino, além do recente acordo conseguido junto com a Turquia no complicado dossiê nuclear iraniano. Fatos importantes que vão bem além do talento dos brasileiros no futebol, ironiza Le Monde.
Um dinamismo no cenário internacional encabeçado de forma brilhante pelo ministro brasileiro da Relações Exteriores, Celso Amorin, relata o jornal. O vespertino lembra que durante muito tempo o Brasil negociou timidamente suas questões econômicas com a OMC, mas que a situação mudou. Agora Amorim é um dos principais atores na busca de uma conclusão do empacado Ciclo de Doha sobre a liberalização do comércio mundial.
Já em suas páginas internas, Le Monde elogia a economia brasileira. O vespertino relata que apenas no primeiro trimestre desse ano o Produto Interno Bruto do país cresceu 9.84% e que quase um milhão de empregos foram criados no Brasil nesse período. Resultados de uma economia aquecida pelo consumo interno, impulsionado pelos 25 milhões de brasileiros que integraram a classe média na ultima década.
Le Monde alerta, no entanto, para um risco superaquecimento da economia brasileira. O jornal explica que o grande desafio para o país agora é controlar a sua inflação, a pior inimiga dos pobres, escreve o jornal francês, citando Lula.
O jornal francês lembra, ainda citando o presidente brasileiro, que o século 21 será o século dos países que não tiveram suas oportunidades. E diz ainda que já Lula, que se considera ainda na metade de sua carreira politica, ele poderá muito bem apresentar sua candidatura para o cargo de secretário-geral das Nações Unidas, em 2012.
Former CIA officer on Iran: Brazil and Turkey are vital checks and balances
Shouldn't the world welcome the actions of two significant, responsible, democratic, and rational states to intervene and help check the foolishnesses of decades of US policy on Iran?
By Graham E. Fuller / May 24, 2010 | Washington
If Washington thinks it now faces complications on getting United Nations Security Council sanctions against Iran, that's not the half of it. A greater obstacle is the subtle change introduced into international power relationships by the actions of Brazil and Turkey that has accompanied it.
These two medium-size powers, Brazil and Turkey, have just challenged the guiding hand of Washington in determining nuclear strategy towards Iran. They undertook their own initiative to persuade Iran to accede to a deal on the handling of nuclear fuel issues. Not only was that initiative entirely independent, it moved ahead in the face of fairly crude American warnings to both states not to contemplate it – even though it closely paralleled one offered to Iran last year that fell through, mainly due to Iranian maneuvering and its fundamental distrust of Washington's intent and blustering style.
Adding insult to injury, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan both had the temerity to actually succeed in their negotiations with Iran while Washington was publicly predicting their certain (and hoped for) failure.
Are the Iranians simply engaging in another con game, playing for time – a maneuver at which they excel? Or has something more profound taken place?
First, it is not only the terms of the deal that matter, but the messengers and atmospherics. Washington for decades has dealt with Iran – almost always indirectly – with considerable truculence and belligerence as the background music to "negotiations." This is business as usual – the world's sole superpower demanding others to agree to its strategy of the moment.
When Mr. Lula and Mr. Erdogan came to Tehran, the game was entirely different. It wasn't the content so much as the negotiators, the venue, and the atmospherics. Tehran did not feel this time that it was acceding to superpower pressure, but to a reasoned and respectful request by two significant peer states in the world with no record of imperialism in Iran. In one sense, the deal was almost bound to succeed. What Iran wants as much as anything in this world is to blunt US dominance of the international order, and especially its ability to dictate terms in the Middle East.
If Iran is to yield at all on nuclear policy, what better device than to accede to two respected and successful states that were themselves defying Washington's wishes in even attempting negotiations? If Tehran had refused that offer, it might have torpedoed the very concept of independent alternative, non-American efforts in international strategy. It made all the sense in the world for Iran to say "yes" this time to this combination of approach.
The same goes for China and Russia. After the Lula-Erdogan success, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton immediately proclaimed her own success at garnering Russian and Chinese support for enhanced sanctions against Iran – a stunningly insulting response to the remarkable accomplishment of Brazilian and Turkish negotiation. These states are, after all, immensely important to US regional and global interests. To blow them off like that was a major blunder, not just in terms of Iran, but in broader global strategy. The rest of the world has surely taken further negative note that Washington's game remains depressingly familiar.
But do we really believe Clinton has in fact garnered Russian and Chinese support? Just as Tehran had every incentive to accept a proposal from "equals," offered with respect instead of bluster and threats, so too Russia and China have every reason to welcome this initiative from Brazil and Turkey. Yes, the terms of the agreement do matter somewhat, but what is far more important for them is the slow but inexorable decay of US ability to deliver international diktats and to have its way. This is what Chinese and Russian foreign-policy strategy is all about. Neither of these countries will, in the end, permit the US hard-line approach to win out over the Brazilian-Turkish one in the Security Council, even if the Brazilian-Turkish deal requires a little tweaking. Russia and China champion the emergence of multiple sources of global power and influence that chip away at dying American unipolar power.
China and Russia, of course, represent the alternative polarity in the emerging struggle to end American hegemony in international affairs. But of greater moment, they now witness the political center in international politics shifting away from Washington as well. These two countries that defied American wishes are not just some Third World rabble-rousers scoring cheap points off the US. They are two major countries that are supposedly close friends of the US This makes the affront even crueler.
These events are profound signs of the times. The problem with unipolar power is that without checks and balances it invariably becomes subject to error and foolishness. On occasion, Americans actually believe in checks and balances when it comes to our own Constitution. Microsoft may be a great corporation, but nobody wants it to have a monopoly on IT.
Similarly in the world, international checks and balances are valuable safety valves. When Washington moves into its fourth decade of paralysis and incompetence in handling Iran, still unable even to speak to it – just as it cannot bring itself to talk to Cuba after 50 years – it has exacerbated the problem, strengthened Iran and the forces of radicalism in the Middle East, polarized emotions and, worst, failed in all respects. Shouldn't the world welcome the actions of two significant, responsible, democratic, and rational states to intervene and help check the foolishnesses of decades of US policy? That is what checks and balances are all about and why the center is shifting.
And, who knows? "Rogue states" – a term beloved in Washington in reference to recalcitrant countries that don't toe the Washington line – may more readily come to accede to new approaches free of the old imperial techniques of interventionism and ultimatums. Meanwhile, the US is rapidly running the risk of becoming its own "failed state" in terms of being able to exercise competent and effective international leadership since the fall of the Soviet Union.
Graham E. Fuller is the former vice chairman of the National Intelligence Council at the CIA and author of numerous books on international politics, including the forthcoming "A World Without Islam" (August 2010).
Lula: jugar en primera división sin mojarse
JORGE CASTAÑEDA 24/05/2010
Hace tiempo que el Brasil de Lula busca un papel global, y que el mundo reconoce sus méritos y celebra sus esfuerzos. La prensa internacional ha hecho del gigante sudamericano la niña de sus ojos, colocando en un mismo plano el carisma de Lula, el Mundial de Fútbol del 2014, las Olimpiadas del 2016, el desempeño de Itamaratí (la Cancillería) en la Ronda Doha y el creciente papel brasileño en América Latina, desplazando tanto a México como a Estados Unidos, incluso en el patio trasero de ambos: Honduras.
En realidad, detrás de unas magníficas relaciones públicas y 16 años de buen gobierno (Cardoso y Lula), aunados a un crecimiento económico mediano pero sostenido, se perfilan varias aventuras diplomáticas fallidas, disimuladas por la superficialidad y la inercia mediáticas. Pero quizás se acerque la hora de la verdad, ya sea para confirmar el surgimiento de un nuevo protagonista global, ya sea para corroborar una obviedad: no bastan las ganas para ser una potencia mundial.
En efecto, el intento de Lula por lograr, de la mano de Turquía y de su mágica mancuerna diplomática (el primer ministro Erdogan y el canciller Davutoglu), un acuerdo con el régimen iraní que impidiera la imposición de nuevas sanciones a Teherán puede convertirse en un éxito notable o en una debacle. Los dos miembros no permanentes del Consejo de Seguridad de la ONU (CSONU) presentaron la semana pasada un acuerdo con el presidente Ahmadineyad cuyo propósito ostensible consiste en evitar que el programa de enriquecimiento de uranio iraní se traduzca en la fabricación de una arma atómica. Para ello, propusieron canjear, en el plazo de un año, uranio enriquecido de bajo grado iraní por varillas occidentales de uranio enriquecido de alto grado, destinadas exclusivamente al reactor de investigación de Teherán.
El propósito real residió, sin embargo, en impedir que el Consejo de Seguridad de Naciones Unidas considerara -y en su caso aprobara- un paquete de nuevas sanciones contra el país gobernado por los ayatolás. Dicha eventualidad hubiera obligado a Ankara y a Brasilia a afrontar una disyuntiva del diablo: seguir el consenso anti-Teherán y traicionar su propia retórica, u oponerse a una resolución patrocinada por los miembros permanentes del Consejo de Seguridad y quedarse solos en el intento, mostrando el aislamiento y la confrontación que entraña su "nueva diplomacia".
La lógica turca es evidente. La república aún kemalista posee intereses reales en la zona. Lleva a cabo un comercio intenso con su vecino; tiene en común una población kurda significativa; recibe parte de su gas y petróleo de Irán; una proporción importante de la población iraní habla turco. Su nueva política exterior consiste en alejarse de las viejas posturaspro Estados Unidos y pro Israel (Turquía es miembro fundador de la OTAN) y en acercarse a sus vecinos -Siria, Grecia e Irán, por supuesto- y al mundo islámico en su conjunto.
La lógica brasileña es menos obvia. No hay intereses significativos de Brasil en Irán, el antisemitismo de Ahmadineyad es mal visto por la comunidad judía de São Paulo, e Itamaratí sabe muy bien que pocas cosas exasperan más a los norteamericanos que un país aliado sin "vela en el entierro" entorpezca sus propósitos, con independencia de la justeza de estos últimos. En el fondo, el gambito de Lula es otro: utilizar la inminente crisis iraní para consolidar su lugar en el firmamento diplomático internacional.
El problema es que el acuerdo de Teherán no bastó para impedir la presentación de un proyecto de resolución por Washington y los demás miembros permanentes del Consejo, que contempla una cuarta etapa de sanciones con más dientes y más amplias. Todo indica, incluso, que los norteamericanos pudieron contar desde antes del esfuerzo turco-brasileño con los nueve votos necesarios para aprobar su resolución, dada por lo menos la abstención rusa y china para evitar un veto. Austria, Japón, Gabón, Uganda y México se encontraban en principio a bordo y Bosnia-Herzegovina y Nigeria en el limbo. Ya existía en principio una coalición suficiente para imponer nuevas sanciones, incluyendo un embargo de materiales susceptibles de ser utilizados para la construcción de misiles y no sólo de la ojiva nuclear que portarían.
Así, de prosperar la iniciativa de Estados Unidos, Francia y el Reino Unido (apoyada por Alemania y tolerada, en todo caso, por Rusia y por China), Brasil se hallaría en el peor de los mundos posibles. Tendrá que tomar partido, después de buscar evitarlo a través de un compromiso que adoleció de un defecto congénito. Una de las partes, es decir, Washington, nunca estuvo de acuerdo, aunque Davutoglu insista en que todo fue consultado con la secretaria de Estado Clinton. Si Brasil aprueba las sanciones en el CSONU, se habrá desdicho de su rechazo a las mismas; si vota en contra, lo hará en compañía, en el mejor de los casos, solo de Turquía y Líbano. Y si se abstiene, confirmará lo que muchos hemos reiterado: Lula quiere jugar en primera división, pero sin mojarse.
He aquí el quid del asunto. En realidad, Brasil ha logrado poco en el ámbito internacional, más allá de titulares. El objetivo diplomático número uno de Lula -lograr un escaño permanente en el Consejo de Seguridad- se ve, al término de ocho años de esfuerzos, menos viable que nunca. La aventura en Honduras resultó en una tragicomedia tropical: Brasil no pudo restituir a su asilado huésped Manuel Zelaya, este permaneció varios meses en la Embajada brasileña, y hoy Itamaratí solo puede chantajear a españoles y mexicanos con su ausencia en caso de cualquier invitación o reconocimiento al nuevo presidente hondureño. La reanudación de la Ronda de Doha sigue indefinidamente pospuesta, Copenhague no resultó y Cancún no promete, e incluso las diversas iniciativas regionales presentadas por Brasil de la mano con Hugo Chávez se hallan estancadas.
Ello se debe a una debilidad intrínseca del esquema. El tamaño de una economía (Japón) o de una demografía (India) no otorga ipso facto el estatuto de actor mundial. Más bien es la toma de partido, los valores impulsados y la eficacia a escala regional lo que, en su conjunto, pueden (o no) convertirse en una catapulta al estrellato internacional. Brasil linda con nueve países, y todos ellos padecen serios conflictos internos (Colombia, Bolivia, Venezuela) o con sus vecinos (Argentina con Uruguay, Colombia con Venezuela y Ecuador, Perú con Ecuador y con Chile, Bolivia con Chile). Pero Lula en ese pantano no ha querido incursionar: mantiene una prudente pasividad antiintervencionista, o un franco respaldo a las posiciones bolivarianas de Chávez, Correa, Morales, Daniel Ortega en Nicaragua y los hermanos Castro en La Habana. Se resiste a impulsar valores, a tomar partido, o a buscar resultados concretos en su propio terreno.
Tal vez resulte más fácil mediar entre Teherán y Washington (aunque nadie lo ha logrado desde 1979) que entre Caracas y Bogotá, o entre Buenos Aires y Montevideo. A pesar de su patente irritación, quizás Barack Obama y Hillary Clinton prefieran darle el beneficio de la duda al proyecto turco-brasileño antes que ceder a la impaciencia de Israel y de Francia. Lula puede salir airoso de su lance en las planicies persas o acabar mal con todos. Posiblemente debiera haberse mostrado satisfecho con las portadas de las revistas, sin buscar en exceso llenarlas de contenido. Suele ser más difícil.
Jorge Castañeda, ex secretario de Relaciones Exteriores de México, es profesor de Estudios Latinoamericanos en la Universidad de Nueva York.
Brasil: advierten que falta inversión vial
BRASILIA (EFE).- Brasil precisa invertir 183.500 millones de reales (99.100 millones de dólares) en obras de mantenimiento de su red de carreteras y en la construcción de nuevas vías y puentes, según un informe divulgado ayer por un organismo oficial.
El estudio del Instituto de Pesquisa Económica Aplicada (IPEA), un organismo adscripto a la presidencia de la república, indica que, a pesar de que las inversiones en carreteras crecieron un 290% entre 1999 y 2008, ese volumen aún no basta para solucionar los problemas de la red vial del país.
El IPEA analizó el impacto del llamado Programa de Aceleración del Crecimiento (PAC), un millonario plan de infraestructura que el gobierno de Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva puso en marcha en 2007, y concluyó que sólo ha abarcado el 13 por ciento de las inversiones necesarias en las carreteras federales.
"El PAC es un avance en relación con lo que se había hecho antes, pero aún es insuficiente para solucionar la situación de la red vial del país", declaró en rueda de prensa el coordinador de Infraestructura Económica del IPEA, Carlos Alvares da Silva Campos Neto.
También destacó que las obras previstas en el PAC para el sector de carreteras están atrasadas en un 70% por distintas razones, en su mayoría de origen burocrático.
Pronósticos
Actualmente, según el IPEA, Brasil cuenta con unos 61.000 kilómetros de carreteras pavimentadas dentro de jurisdicción federal, de los cuales cerca de un 70 por ciento precisa reparaciones o ampliaciones. Además, existen otros 29.000 kilómetros de carreteras que están bajo administración privada o regional, que no fueron incluidos en el informe elaborado por el instituto.
En tanto, Brasil proyectó ayer un crecimiento del 6,46 por ciento en su PBI para este año a través de su Banco Central. Lula también anticipó ayer que proyecta crear este año dos millones de puestos de empleo.
PESE A LA COMPETENCIA CHINA EL SECTOR CRECIÓ 11% EN 2009
El mercado automotriz de Brasil registra una vigorosa expansión
Ayudan los incentivos fiscales y, en especial, el impulso de una economía rica en recursos, con crédito en expansión y una clase media que crece a gran velocidad
Martes 25 de mayo de 201
La planta automotriz de Fiat cercana a Belo Horizonte, en la provincia brasileña de Minas Gerais no es sólo la más grande que tiene la compañía sino una de las que más activas del mundo. Consume 750 toneladas de acero diarios, funciona las 24 horas en tres turnos y produce un auto cada 20 segundos, o más de 3.000 unidades diarias.
El año pasado, la planta produjo 722.400 autos, ubicándose en segundo lugar sólo detrás de la gigante fábrica que tiene Volkswagen en Wolfsburg, Alemania, que registró 740.000 unidades en 2009.
Fiat, que pierde plata en Europa, obtuvo en 2009 una ganancia neta de u$s 863 millones en Brasil, donde controla una cuarta parte del mercado de autos livianos y vehículos comerciales. El año pasado por primera vez, la automotriz vendió más autos en este país sudamericano que en Italia.
A medida que la industria automotriz mundial busca recuperarse tras la profunda crisis, hay compañías del sector que están ganando grandes sumas en Brasil. Y casi todas están expandiendo sus operaciones allí.
Si bien el próspero mercado chino sigue siendo el campo de batalla más competitivo para el sector, Brasil ofrece mejores márgenes porque las automotrices internacionales no están obligadas a producir autos a través de joint ventures y, por lo tanto, no tienen que compartir ganancias con sus socios.
VW, la segunda automotriz del mercado, está invirtiendo 2.300 millones de euros en el país hasta 2014.
General Motors, el tercero, no da a conocer sus resultados pero, según un ejecutivo de la compañía, estuvo "imprimiendo dinero" en Brasil.
Ford Motor, el más chico de las "cuatro grandes" automotrices del país, ganó u$s 765 millones en Sudamérica el año pasado, y la mayor parte de ello provino de Brasil. En la automotriz estadounidense aseguraron que se invertirán en ese país 4.500 millones de reales entre 2011 y 2015.
El mercado automotriz brasileño se expandió 11% el año pasado, ayudado por incentivos fiscales y principalmente por el impulso de una economía rica en recursos, con crédito en expansión y una clase media que crece a gran velocidad. El sector prevé un avance de un dígito elevado ese año, y que continuará esa tendencia en los próximos años.
"Brasil tiene 6,5 habitantes por vehículo; en EE.UU., es 1 o 1,2", señaló Rogelio Golfarb, director institucional de Ford do Brasil. "El potencial de crecimiento es inmenso".
DOS MILLONES DE EMPLEOS CREADOS EN 2010, DIJO LULA
BRASILIA, 24 (ANSA) - El presidente brasileño, Luiz Lula da Silva, afirmó hoy que serán creados dos millones de empleos en 2010 y comparó ese dato con la situación en los países desarrollados, donde crece la desocupación.
"Hasta el 30 de abril creamos 962.000 nuevos empleos y estamos trabajando con la hipótesis de llegar a fin de año con la creación de dos millones de empleos" afirmó el mandatario.
"Si continuamos así daremos un salto extraordinario hasta ser uno de los países con menor índice de desempleo" del mundo continuó.
"Todo el mundo perdió muchos puestos de trabajo durante la crisis, y nosotros, gracias a Dios, los aumentamos" consignó el mandatario y ex sindicalista Lula.
"Entré en el sindicalismo en 1969, en la década del 70 teníamos pleno empleo sin libertado política, hoy tenemos total libertad política", destacó.
La tasa de desempleo en las principales capitales es del orden del 7%, según el Insituto Brasileño de Geografía y Estadística.
Lula se reunió hoy con el ministro de Hacienda, Guido Mantega, y el de Planificación, Paulo Bernardo, con quienes analizó la marcha de la economía, que, según un informe presentado hoy, crecerá el 6,4% en 2010.
"Queremos que Brasil alcance el pleno empleo, hace mucho que no teníamos una situación de este tipo" declaró Lula. DFB
PIB CRECERA 6,46% EN 2010 PREVE MERCADO FINANCIERO
BRASILIA, 24 (ANSA) - El Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) de Brasil crecerá el 6,46% en este año según un informe del Banco Central, publicado hoy, basado en previsiones de ejecutivos y analistas del mercado.
El Boletín Focus estima que el PIB se expandirá el 6,46 % contra una del 6,30%, formulada en otro informe conocido la semana pasada.
Se trata de la decimoctava previsión consecutiva de crecimiento PIB, que en 2009 se mantuvo estacado.
Si el diagnóstico se confirma será la mayor crecida del PIB desde 1986, cuando fue del 7,4%, según el Instituto Brasileño de Geografía y Estadística.
En 2011, en tanto, la actividad económica avanzará el 4,5 %.
Uno de los sectores más dinámicos en 2010, será la industria, que experimentará un alza del 10,90 %.
El ministro de Hacienda, Guido Mantega, anunció hace dos semanas una reducción de gastos públicos del orden de los 5.500 millones de dólares para frenar la expansión económica y, con ello, evitar el riesgo de una estampida inflacionaria.
Según los cálculos del mercado presentados hoy la inflación será del 5,67 este año, mientras la meta del gobierno es de 4,5%. (ANSA). MRZ
Brazil's Consumer Confidence Increases Again In May
MAY 25, 2010, 7:20 A.M. ET
SAO PAULO (Dow Jones)--Brazil's main consumer confidence index increased in May, for the third consecutive month, amid positive outlook for the country's economy, the Getulio Vargas Foundation, or FGV, said Tuesday.
FGV's Consumer Confidence Index, or ICC, increased to 116.1 points from 115.4 points in April. The index runs from 1 to 200 points, with 100 considered neutral.
The figure remains above the historical average of 107 points, according to FGV.
Brazil's economy has proved resilient in the face of the global economic crisis. The country slipped into recession in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009. But recovering consumer confidence and rising employment have led to higher retail sales, fueling the nation's recovery.
Brazil's GDP expanded 2% in the fourth quarter of 2009 compared with the third quarter, with economists predicting an expansion of more than 6% in 2010.
The ICC index is based on interviews with 2,000 families in Brazil's seven largest cities. The ICC measures the willingness of families to make purchases of various types of consumer goods, and gauges expectations about employment, income and economic opportunities.
-By Rogerio Jelmayer, Dow Jones Newswires; 55-11-3544-7071; rogerio.jelmayer@dowjones.com
Brazil Stocks End Lower As Spain Worries Cut Off Rally
MAY 24, 2010, 4:50 P.M. ET
BRASILIA (Dow Jones)--Brazil's Bovespa stocks index lost ground to end lower Monday as worries over financial sector health in Spain cut off hopes for the extension of a rally seen Friday.
The main Sao Paulo stocks index ended 0.6% lower at 59,915 points after ending at 60,259 points Friday. Volume was moderate, with 4.64 billion Brazilian reals ($2.5 billion) in shares changing hands.
With the day's decline, the index is down by 11.3% so far in May and by 12.6% for the year-to-date.
Traders noted the local market began Monday in a volatile mode, swinging between gains and declines as investors sought to evaluate the impact of the latest news out of Europe.
Spain's central bank over the weekend announced that it intervened in the country's CajaSur savings bank to prevent the spread of systemic difficulties that could ensue from overexposure to risky assets. The intervention was followed by the announcement Monday that four other regional Spanish banks would merge to avoid difficulties in their balance sheets.
Alongside those worries were widespread calls for a general strike in Spain in protest of the government's recently announced fiscal adjustments.
The news of financial and social distress coming from Spain re-ignited worries that erupted last week after Germany moved to restrict some trading strategies in an effort to help limit the fallout from Europe's regional fiscal crisis.
The latest developments continued to weigh against the euro, causing a negative impact for key commodities prices and local materials sector shares.
Helping offset the negative mood somewhat, however was talk Monday that China may postpone implementation of monetary policy tightening as a measure to circumvent slowing growth.
By the end of the session, however, the enthusiasm wasn't enough to overcome broader concerns, and most local shares moved lower.
In the materials sector, shares of mining giant Vale (VALE, VALE5.BR) were down 1.2% to BRL39.80 and shares of steelmaker Gerdau (GGB, GGBR4.BR) fell 0.2% to BRL23.75.
In the banking sector, Itau-Unibanco (ITUB, ITUB4.BR) fell 1.7% to BRL32.92 and rival Bradesco bank (BBD, BBDC4.BR) fell 1.0% to BRL29.89.
Elsewhere, state-controlled oil company Petrobras (PBR, PETR4.BR) fell 0.8% to BRL27.15, heavyweight telecom Oi (TNE, TNLP4.BR) rose 1.9% to BRL27.70 and leading airline Tam (TAMM4.BR) ended 1.6% lower at BRL24.61.
All quotes refer to preferred shares.
Brazil Real Ends Weaker As Spain Renews Euro Zone Worries
MAY 24, 2010, 4:02 P.M. ET
BRASILIA (Dow Jones)--After brief gains late last week, Brazil's real resumed a weakening trend Monday as banking sector problems in Spain over the weekend renewed investor concerns over the repercussions of fiscal difficulties throughout Europe.
The real ended at BRL1.8660 to the dollar after ending at BRL1.8560 to the dollar on the Brazilian Mercantile and Futures Exchange Wednesday.
Traders noted investors moved back into a defensive stance after Spain's central bank intervened in the CajaSur savings bank over the weekend to prevent the spread of systemic difficulties that could ensue from CajaSur's overexposure to risky assets. Also causing some concern was the announcement Monday that four other regional Spanish banks would merge to shore up difficulties in their balance sheets.
Alongside those worries were widespread calls for a general strike in Spain in protest of the government's planned fiscal adjustments.
The recent difficulties in Spain brought renewed focus to the problems in the Euro region after investors reacted negatively last week to German moves to tighten trading regulations.
Meanwhile, the nervousness regarding Europe's economic outlook continued to have a negative knock-on effect for Brazilian exporters, as key commodities prices tracked the Euro lower.
The concerns over Europe, however, were offset somewhat by Monday by enthusiasm over talk that China may postpone implementation of monetary policy tightening as a measure to circumvent slowing growth.
Locally the focus remained on inflation. Projections for Brazil's IPCA consumer price inflation continued to rise Monday according to a market survey released by the country's central bank. The survey showed projections for Brazil's IPCA consumer price inflation rising to 5.67% in 2010 from 5.54% seen previously.
Brazil's own monetary policy outlook, however, remained unchanged, with analysts projecting a 225 basis point increase for the country's references Selic rate by the end of 2010 to a rate of 11.75% annually.
Brazil's central bank, meanwhile, did its part to weigh in against the local currency buying dollars in a late session spot market auction for BRL1.8641 to the dollar in its ongoing effort to build foreign reserves.
In local rate futures trading trading Monday, rates were slightly lower, with investors showing uncertainty over the impact of turbulence abroad. The rate on the country's most actively traded contract, Jan. 2012, moved to 12.03% from 12.04% at Friday's close.
Brazil's interbank overnight rate, meanwhile, fell to 9.37% from 9.38% Friday.
Brazil's Central Bank Buys Dollars In Auction At BRL1.8641
MAY 24, 2010, 3:20 P.M. ET
BRASILIA (Dow Jones)--Brazil's central bank bought U.S. dollars at an auction Monday for BRL1.8641 to the dollar, the bank said.
The central bank didn't reveal the volume of dollars purchased.
Before the auction, at 1900 GMT, the real was trading at BRL1.8610 to the dollar. Following the auction, as of 1915 GMT, the real traded at BRL1.8660.
Brazil's central bank has been purchasing dollars at daily spot market auctions since May 2009 to build foreign reserves after suspending such auctions in September 2008.
As of Friday, Brazil's foreign reserves stood at $249.7 billion.
Brazil Stocks Decline Early Tracking Caution Abroad
MAY 24, 2010, 10:09 A.M. ET
BRASILIA (Dow Jones)--Brazil's Bovespa stock index declined slightly in volatile trading early Monday as investors showed caution over renewed signs of turbulence in the financial sector in Europe.
As of 1400 GMT, the main Sao Paulo stocks index declined 0.1% to 60195 points after ending at 60259 points Friday.
Traders noted that investors were showing some continued risk aversion in reaction to Spain's intervention in the CajaSur bank over the weekend and calls for a general strike in that country in protest of fiscal adjustments.
The concerns over Europe were offset somewhat by enthusiasm Monday over talk that China may postpone implementation of monetary-policy tightening as a measure to circumvent slowing growth.
Key Asian markets reacted positively to the speculation, led by a 3.5% advance in Shanghai.
Locally, meanwhile, projections for Brazil's inflation continued to rise Monday, according to a market survey released by the country's central bank. The survey showed projections for Brazil's IPCA consumer-price inflation rising to 5.67% in 2010 from 5.54% seen previously.
Brazil's own monetary-policy outlook, however, remained unchanged, with analysts projecting a 225 basis point increase for the country's reference Selic rate by the end of 2010, to a rate of 11.75% annually.
In early trading Monday, share prices were mixed, reflecting an environment of cautious bargain hunting.
Among materials-sector shares, mining giant Vale (VALE, VALE5.BR) was down 0.2% to 40.20 Brazilian reals ($21.73) and steelmaker Gerdau (GGB, GGB4.BR) fell 0.1% to BRL23.78.
In the banking sector, Banco Itau (ITUB, ITUB4.BR) was down 0.8% to 33.23, and rival Bradesco bank (BBD, BBDC4.BR) was 1.3% lower at BRL29.80.
Elsewhere, shares of heavyweight telecom Oi (TNE) rose 0.2% to BRL27.26, state-controlled oil company Petrobras (PBR) rose 0.3% to BRL27.26, and leading airline Tam (TAMM4.BR) rose 0.7% to BRL25.17.
All price quotes refer to companies' preferred shares.
