Emerging economies 'to enjoy food production boom'
16/06/2010
The emerging economies of Brazil, India, China and Russia will enjoy an agricultural boom over the next decade as production stalls in Western Europe, a report says.
Agricultural output in the Bric nations will grow three times as fast as in the major developed countries, the joint United Nations-OECD study said.
Livestock and crop prices will stay above long-term averages, it added.
And rising incomes and urbanisation in developing states will drive growth.
"Developing countries will provide the main source of growth for world agricultural production, consumption and trade," the report said.
"As incomes rise, diets are expected to slowly diversify away from staple foods towards increased meats and processed foods that will favour livestock and dairy products.
"For virtually all commodities, the projected growth in imports and exports of developing economies [over the next decade] exceeds that of the OECD area," said the report.
While overall world net production of commodities is forecast to grow 22%, production among the 30 members of the OECD is estimated at 10%. Production in western Europe alone will stagnate.
This OECD growth rate is almost three times slower than the growth rate of Bric countries, which is forecast to expand 27%. The report also identifies Ukraine as likely to see rapid agricultural growth over the next few years.
Crop prices, in real terms, will rise between 16% to 40% "above their average for the decade".
And average dairy prices are expected to be 16% to 45% higher, with butter prices showing most gains.
Brazil is forecast to see by far the fastest growth in agriculture, with a expansion of more than 40% through to 2019.
China and India are expected to see growth of 26% and 21% respectively to 2019. Projections for Russia and Ukraine were 26% and 29%.
Protests
Food prices in 2007-08 soared, sparking protests and riots, as demand for bio-fuels diverted commodities into energy production.
The UN-OECD's annual Agricultural Outlook said it did not expect to see a similar food price shock in the coming years.
However, the report warned that a sharp rise in energy prices could again impact on the food industry.
"A further increase in oil prices could be expected to increase input and production costs, having an impact on crop supplies, prices and trade flows, and reinforce feedstock demand for biofuels."
Looking beyond the next decade, the report forecasts global food production to to expand by 70% by 2050.Emerging economies 'to enjoy food production boom'
Page last updated at 14:08 GMT, Tuesday, 15 June 2010 15:08 UK
E-mail this to a friendPrintable version Brazil's vast agriculture industry is forecast to boom over the next decade
The emerging economies of Brazil, India, China and Russia will enjoy an agricultural boom over the next decade as production stalls in Western Europe, a report says.
Agricultural output in the Bric nations will grow three times as fast as in the major developed countries, the joint United Nations-OECD study said.
Livestock and crop prices will stay above long-term averages, it added.
And rising incomes and urbanisation in developing states will drive growth.
"Developing countries will provide the main source of growth for world agricultural production, consumption and trade," the report said.
"As incomes rise, diets are expected to slowly diversify away from staple foods towards increased meats and processed foods that will favour livestock and dairy products.
"For virtually all commodities, the projected growth in imports and exports of developing economies [over the next decade] exceeds that of the OECD area," said the report.
Continue reading the main story
A further increase in oil prices could... reinforce feedstock demand for biofuels.
Agricultural Outlook
United Nations-OECD report
While overall world net production of commodities is forecast to grow 22%, production among the 30 members of the OECD is estimated at 10%. Production in western Europe alone will stagnate.
This OECD growth rate is almost three times slower than the growth rate of Bric countries, which is forecast to expand 27%. The report also identifies Ukraine as likely to see rapid agricultural growth over the next few years.
Crop prices, in real terms, will rise between 16% to 40% "above their average for the decade".
And average dairy prices are expected to be 16% to 45% higher, with butter prices showing most gains.
Brazil is forecast to see by far the fastest growth in agriculture, with a expansion of more than 40% through to 2019.
China and India are expected to see growth of 26% and 21% respectively to 2019. Projections for Russia and Ukraine were 26% and 29%.
Protests
Food prices in 2007-08 soared, sparking protests and riots, as demand for bio-fuels diverted commodities into energy production.
The UN-OECD's annual Agricultural Outlook said it did not expect to see a similar food price shock in the coming years.
However, the report warned that a sharp rise in energy prices could again impact on the food industry.
"A further increase in oil prices could be expected to increase input and production costs, having an impact on crop supplies, prices and trade flows, and reinforce feedstock demand for biofuels."
Looking beyond the next decade, the report forecasts global food production to to expand by 70% by 2050.
Brazil quietly secures its offshore oil platforms
16/06/2010 | Jean-Pierre Langellier
Brazil is keeping a watchful eye on the environmental disaster in the Gulf of Mexico. It is among the countries most likely to suffer an accident similar to Deepwater Horizon, having engaged in the exploration and exploitation of huge oil and gas fields in the Atlantic depths.
Brazil's industry regulator, the National Oil Agency (ANP), and the main oil company, Petrobras, won't comment on the disaster. They are, however, reacting very quietly, and behind the scenes.
Petrobras's management told parliament in May that its rescue teams were ready to intervene within 24 hours at the most on any of the rigs in mainland Brazil and within eight hours on the most remote offshore fields.
Brazil has for several years led the way in deep-water exploration, but its expertise has come at a price: in 1984 an explosion started a fire on the Enchova Central rig and 42 lives were lost during its evacuation; four years later another explosion destroyed the same rig, but no one was killed.
The discovery in 2006 of oil fields at a depth of more than 7,000 metres, below a thick (2,200 metre) crust of salt, heralded a new era in oil prospecting in Brazil, plagued by many uncertainties. The deepest level from which Petrobras had previously extracted oil was about 1,800 metres, a world record in itself.
The experts say there are bound to be surprises. "At that depth, with such high pressure, we cannot claim to be ready for any eventuality," says Segen Estefen, the head of a university laboratory that works with Petrobras.
It is a huge technological challenge. Little or nothing is known about the 120m-year-old porous, carboniferous rocks that contain the oil. At 4°C, the sea water is cold enough for there to be a risk of paraffin solidifying in the risers. The pressure also means the pipes need to be reinforced. The sediment on top of the salt is unstable too, making it difficult to anchor the oil rigs.
But the main hazard is corrosion caused by the high carbon-dioxide content of the fields. When it comes into contact with water it produces carbonic acid, making it necessary to invent new nickel-enriched alloys, which are tougher and lighter.
The recently discovered Pre-sal fields contain 50bn to 100bn barrels of proven reserves, which should make Brazil the world's fourth-largest producer by 2030. With that exploration will come risks.
- This story was first published in Le Monde.
Brazil's Lula Approves 7.7% Rise In Social-Security Benefits
JUNE 15, 2010, 12:56 P.M. ET
BRASILIA (Dow Jones)--Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva Tuesday sanctioned a 7.7% increase in social-security benefits, but vetoed changes in actuarial rules that provide incentives for workers to delay retirement, Finance Minister Guido Mantega said.
The increased benefits are expected to cost the government approximately 1.6 billion Brazilian reals ($894 million) annually.
Mantega, however, said the government planned to cut an equal amount from its 2010 budget in order to ensure that it meets its public-sector primary-budget surplus target equivalent to 3.3% of gross domestic product.
"The president allowed us to compensate for the adjustment with a new budget cut," Mantega said. "It's important to maintain fiscal balance--we're going to cut all types of current spending, including congressional earmarks."
Lula's approval of the social-security benefit increase comes as the government prepares for general nationwide elections in October.
The benefit increase was approved last month by Brazil's congress; the government had proposed an increase of 6.14%. The adjustment will be made retroactively to Jan. 1.
Brazil's publicly administered social-security system posted a deficit in 2009 of BRL42.87 billion and is seen posting a deficit of more than BRL45 billion this year.
The rejection of the congress's alteration in actuarial rules, meanwhile, is set to save the government more than BRL4 billion annually.
Nonetheless, the changes allowed Tuesday will force the government to further tighten a budget that has already seen cuts this year of more than BRL30 billion.
Brazil's social-security deficit is a key element of the country's nominal public-sector deficit, which ended the 12 months through April at BRL105.30 billion, or the equivalent of 3.24% of GDP.
Brazil's so-called primary budget surplus, which excludes the impact of interest payments on public-sector debt, ended the 12-month period through April at BRL70.38 billion, or the equivalent of 2.17% of GDP.
Brazil Stocks End Higher On Rising Commodities Prices
JUNE 15, 2010, 4:30 P.M. ET
SAO PAULO (Dow Jones)--Brazilian share prices closed higher Tuesday on rising global commodities prices.
The benchmark Ibovespa stocks index closed 1.4% higher at 64,442 points. Volume was moderate at 3.74 billion Brazilian reals ($2.1 billion).
Traders said volume was reduced Tuesday by Brazil's participation in World Soccer Cup play in South Africa, with most investors watching the televised game rather than the Ibovespa index. Late in the second half of the game, Brazil led North Korea by 2 to 1.
Brazilian shares, meanwhile, rose in trading Tuesday in tandem with global commodities prices. Rising metals and oil prices contribute directly to the bottom line of major Brazilian exporters.
Locally, the market was cheered by Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's decision to veto portions of a bill that would have increased long-term costs to the nation's pension system. They also hailed Finance Minister Guido Mantega's pledge Tuesday to maintain the government's 2010 fiscal goal of a surplus equal to at least 3.3% of gross domestic product.
At the end of trading Tuesday, materials and telecom sector shares were among leading gainers.
Mining giant Vale (VALE, VALE5.BR) rose 1.2% to BRL42.20.
Southern steel maker Gerdau (GGB, GGBR4.BR) was also higher Tuesday, rising 1.8% to BRL25.59.
Telecom leader Tele Norte Leste SA (TNE, TNLP4.BR), or Oi,rose 2.6% to BRL30.03.
Despite a rise in global oil prices Brazil's government-controlled energy giant Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PBR, PETR4.BR), or Petrobras, ended lower, dropping 0.2% to BRL29.00.
Aircraft manufacturer Empresa Brasileira de Aeronautica (ERJ, EMBR3.BR), or Embraer, rose 0.6% to BRL9.73.
Minas Gerais utility Cemig (CIG, CMIG4.BR) advanced 2.0% to close at BRL25.40.
Brazilian president raises pension despite rejections
11:31, June 16, 2010
Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva decided on Tuesday to grant a 7.7 percent rise to the retirement benefits and pensions, to take effect in August.
Lula decided to ok the bill despite his economic team's advice to veto it, due to the impact it would have on the public accounts.
"I will do what I think is good for Brazil, and for the retired," he said, adding that he would not "leave skeletons" for the next administration.
According to Finance Minister Guido Mantega, who announced the decision, the measure will have an impact of 1.6 billion reais (893 million U.S. dollars) in Brazil's public accounts this year. In order to maintain the public accounts' balance, the president authorized several budget cuts.
"Lula allowed us to make the necessary cuts, which will compensate the 7.7 percent," he said.
The Finance Minister, who defended the veto, did not consider the granting of the raise a defeat of the economic team.
"To me, the most important thing is to fulfill the fiscal target, maintain the fiscal balance even in an electoral year," he said.
Brazil Approves Higher-Than-Planned Pension Increase (Update1)
June 15, 2010, 1:52 PM EDT
June 15 (Bloomberg) -- Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, four months ahead of the presidential election, approved a higher-than-planned increase in payments for pensioners that will be offset by cuts to other spending.
Lula signed a measure calling for a 7.7 percent increase to pensioners who get more than 510 reais ($285.90) a month, Finance Minister Guido Mantega told reporters today in Brasilia. The raise, higher than the 6.14 percent increase originally granted by Lula in January, was approved by Congress on May 19. It's retroactive to the beginning of the year.
Lula's decision benefits 8.4 million pensioners, according to Senator Romero Juca, leader of the government coalition. To compensate for the unbudgeted expense, the government will cut spending in other areas by an additional 1.6 billion reais, Mantega told reporters in Brasilia.
"There was already a great expectation amid pensioners, so he decided to grant the raise as long as it didn't threaten public accounts," Mantega told reporters in Brasilia. "The president authorized a cut to current spending to ensure fiscal balance, the soundness of the public accounts and that the fiscal target is met."
Lula vetoed a bill that scrapped a formula to calculate the value of pensions, Mantega told journalists today in Brasilia. The formula, known in Portuguese as Fator Previdenciario, determines pension payments according to the age of the retiree.
Election Year
Lula could have been overturned by Congress if he attempted to deny the 7.7 percent increase to pensioners, Claudio Couto, a political science professor at Getulio Vargas Foundation in Sao Paulo, said in a phone interview.
Lula, barred by the constitution from a third consecutive term, chose his former Cabinet Chief Dilma Rousseff, 62, to run for president in the October election.
Rousseff and her main rival for the presidency, Sao Paulo's former governor Jose Serra, are currently tied in a pre-election polls by Ibope published on June 5.
Each is supported by 37 percent of those surveyed, the poll showed. Eight percent of the 2,002 voters polled were undecided. The poll has a margin of error of 2 percentage points.
Brasil no apoyará a los kelpers
Miércoles 16 de junio de 2010
El gobierno del brasileño Luis Inacio 'Lula' Da Silva mostró ayer un total respaldo a las políticas de Argentina en su pedido de soberanía sobre las Islas Malvinas. Lo hizo al desmentir cualquier tipo de contacto, y desechar la posibilidad de que ocurran a futuro, con las autoridades británicas de las islas, quienes dejaron trascender que buscaban un acuerdo con Brasil para que abastezca a las empresas que explotan petróleo en el archipiélago.
Así lo informó ayer la Cancillería argentina, que a través de un comunicado dio a conocer la postura trasmitida formalmente por la diplomacia brasileña, con la cual salió al cruce de las versiones lanzadas por los Kelpers.
El Palacio San Martín precisó que el director de América del Sur de Itamaraty, Joao Luiz Pereira, se comunicó con las autoridades de la embajada argentina en Brasilia, y les expresó que "ningún funcionario de su gobierno fue contactado por 'representante' alguno de la ilegítima 'asamblea legislativa' de las islas".
Tras desmentir cualquier tipo de negociaciones entre Brasil y los Kelpers, Pereira precisó que "en caso de intentar contacto alguno, y dado el claro apoyo de Brasil en lo que refiere a los legítimos derechos de soberanía de la Argentina en la cuestión de las islas Malvinas, no se aceptará por parte de Brasil mantener ningún tipo de diálogo".
La controversia se inició el lunes cuando representantes del gobierno británico de las Islas manifestaron su intención de negociar con Brasil para agilizar el abastecimiento que requieren las tareas de exploración de petróleo que lleva a cabo la plataforma Ocean Guardian.
El diplomático de Itamaraty se comunicó con la embajada argentina en Brasilia para ratificar el apoyo de su gobierno, y recordó que en la última Asamblea General de la OEA fue el vicecanciller de Brasil, Antonio Patriota, quien leyó la declaración sobre la Cuestión de las Islas Malvinas que momentos después fue aprobada en forma unánime y por aclamación por los 33 países reunidos en Lima.
La jugada de los Kelpers mostró que la obstaculización argentina a la explotación de petróleo preocupa a las autoridades de las islas.
Importan energía de Brasil para cuidar los embalses
Miércoles 16 de junio de 2010
Desde el viernes pasado el gobierno argentino comenzó a importar energía eléctrica desde Brasil para atender el crecimiento de la demanda local durante los días más fríos del año. La compra comenzó con unos 350 megawatts (Mw), que en los tres días siguientes se estiraron hasta más de 700 Mw.
La importación de Brasil se suma a las compras de electricidad a Uruguay, que comenzaron a principios de este mes.
En lo que va del año, el sábado 12 de junio fue el día que más energía se importó, según aseguran en el mercado eléctrico. El numero rondó los 1.000 Mw, que equivalen a un 5% de la oferta local, en torno a los 20.000 Mw.
La capacidad de generación eléctrica doméstico todavía alcanza para abastecer a los requerimientos locales. Pero el Ministerio de Planificación, en manos de Julio de Vido, prefiere importar energía desde los países limítrofes para conservar el agua en los embalses del Comahue, la zona neuquina en la que se encuentran varias centrales de generación hidroeléctrica.
"Se está guardando toda el agua posible para los días más fríos del año. La demanda en las últimas semanas se mantuvo en torno a los 18.000 Mw, raro para esta época del año. Además, va a haber más equipos que entren en reparación y quieren tener esa reserva", explicaron en una de las mayores generadores del país.
La importación, además, tiende a compensarse con futuras exportaciones argentinas a Brasil y Uruguay.
El consumo eléctrico sigue en franco aumento. Aunque mayo tuvo un día hábil menos, la demanda del mes registró una suba interanual del 5,1% en comparación con el mismo período de 2009, según los números de Fundelec.
Continúa en alza el consumo
Así, los primeros cinco meses del año acumulan un incremento del consumo eléctrico del 5,8%, lejos de la baja registrada en 2009, que había sido del 1,3 por ciento.
Sólo bajaron su consumo ocho provincias, entre las cuales se destacan Chubut (-19,6%), Misiones (-12,6%) y el sur del interior de Buenos Aires (-12,8%).
Según datos de todo el mes de mayo, la generación térmica volvió a liderar el aporte de producción. Así, se repitió la participación verificada en los primeros meses del año: la térmica –en base a gas– cubrió un 58,8% de los requerimientos, en tanto que el aporte hidroeléctrico abasteció el 36,7% de la demanda, y el nuclear el 4%.
A diferencia de lo que ocurrió en junio y en julio, la importación representó sólo el 0,5% de la demanda total.
SANTANA TEXTILES DUPLICARÁ LA PRODUCCIÓN DE LA PLANTA DE CHACO PARA FABRICAR HILOS DE ALGODÓN
Grupo textil brasileño invierte u$s 30 millones para ampliar sus negocios en la Argentina
Miércoles 16 de junio de 2010
Raimundo Delfino Filho, CEO de Santana Textiles, anunció ayer en esta localidad una inversión de u$s 30 millones que les permitirá al grupo brasileño duplicar el tamaño y la producción de la planta y pasar de 350 a 600 empleados. Además, instalarán una hilandería para ingresar a la fabricación de hilos de algodón, que luego la industria textil utiliza para la confección de prendas, y donde competirán con empresas locales como TN Platex.
Las obras -cuyo plazo previsto es de 12 a 18 meses- permitirán a Santana aumentar su producción de 14 millones de metros de tejido denim a 21 millones de metros por año. Estiman que su participación en el mercado de telas para jeans -que en la Argentina es de 50 millones de metros por año y está dominado por grupos brasileños-crecerá del 25% actual al 40 por ciento. Aquí, repiten la misma pelea que en su país, y compiten con Camargo Correa (Alpargatas) y Santista (ex Grafa).
"Desde acá tenemos más facilidad de competir con productos hechos para el mercado argentino. La duplicación está orientada a ofrecer productos diferenciados. En este país, el consumo sigue en aumento y es un mercado que tiene mucho para crecer", destacó Delfino Filho, quien realizó el anuncio en la misma planta, junto al gobernador chaqueño Jorge Capitanich. El gobierno provincial ofrece a la empresa mecanismos de financiación para adquirir las 10.000 toneladas de algodón al año que procesan. Y luego de la ampliación, demandarán 20.000 toneladas.
Capitanich estimó que la superficie sembrada de algodón en su provincia podría llegar ahora a las 400.000 hectáreas, luego de haber caído a 90.000 en el año 2002. La duplicación también le permitirá exportar un 20% de su producción desde Chaco a países vecinos. "La Argentina es un país competitivo", dijo Delfino Filho.
A la planta de Puerto Tirol ingresa el algodón cosechado y luego de un largo procesamiento -hilado, teñido, tejido, secado, planchado- realizado en máquinas de dimensiones gigantescas y velocidades imposibles de seguir con la vista, se transforma en el tejido denim de distintos grosores y colores que demandas las empresas de ropa.
Santana nació en 1963, en el estado de Caerá (Brasil), como una pequeña tejeduría de hamacas para dormir. Hoy factura u$s 350 millones al año y tiene cuatro fábricas en Brasil. Este año, además, instalarán una planta en Texas, Estados Unidos, con una inversión de u$s 120 millones. Será cuatro veces más grande que la planta chaqueña.
